FC Cologne v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 13
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 11
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.52
Goals − xG
+0.03 – +0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Cologne win
16.6%
Draw
20.6%
Borussia Dortmund win
62.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.8 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLWLDLWLD last 10
scored 12
from 16.8 xG
conceded 21
from 17.2 xG
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWWWWDDW last 10
scored 17
from 20.7 xG
conceded 7
from 11.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.12–2.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.38–1.87 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 63% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Cologne 0.97 xGBorussia Dortmund 1.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Cologne attacking right
Borussia Dortmund attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 FC Cologne |
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 0' |
FC Cologne |
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
FC Cologne |
Youssoupha Niang | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Said El Mala |
| 8' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Daniel Svensson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Marcel Sabitzer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Serhou Guirassy |
| 14' |
FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.47 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Maximilian Beier |
| 18' |
FC Cologne |
Youssoupha Niang | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 32' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Serhou Guirassy |
| 33' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 33' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ragnar Ache |
| 37' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Eric Martel |
| 38' |
FC Cologne |
Youssoupha Niang | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Said El Mala |
| 39' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 53' |
FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Youssoupha Niang |
| 55' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Said El Mala |
| 56' |
FC Cologne |
Eric Martel | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 56' |
FC Cologne |
Youssoupha Niang | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Julian Brandt |
| 65' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yan Couto |
| 65' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 79' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Ramy Bensebaini | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 87' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 88' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Svensson |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Felix Nmecha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Marcel Sabitzer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Julian Brandt AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| Maximilian Beier AMC | 89 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| Ramy Bensebaini DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.89 | 0.15 | 0.57 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Fabio Silva Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Yan Couto Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Niklas Süle Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Karim Adeyemi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jobe Bellingham Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Kaminski AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.48 |
| Ragnar Ache FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Said El Mala AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.24 | 0.46 |
| Kristoffer Lund DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Eric Martel DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Rav van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tom Krauß DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssoupha Niang AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 0.31 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson DMC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Jahmai Simpson-Pusey DC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cenk Özkacar Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Linton Maina Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Bülter Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dominique Heintz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cenny Neumann Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |