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FC Cologne v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG

2–1
1.54 – 1.04 xG
Shots
20 – 16
On target
7 – 7
Shots in box
14 – 7
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.39 – 0.18
Goals − xG
+0.46 – -0.04
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 25' — goalJoe Scally 38' — goalSaid El Mala 66' — goal
FC Cologne 1.54 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 1.04 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Florian Neuhaus 1' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Philipp Sander 2' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Luka Lochoshvili 5' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Philipp Sander 7' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Sebastian Sebulonsen 12' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Said El Mala 14' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Said El Mala 15' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 25' — Goal (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Hugo Bolin 29' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Mikey Moore 30' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Joe Scally 32' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Isac Lidberg 33' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Philipp Sander 37' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Joe Scally 38' — Goal (0.37 xG, Open Play)Linton Maina 41' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Sebastian Sebulonsen 41' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Hugo Bolin 43' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Borna Sosa 44' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Linton Maina 49' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Said El Mala 49' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Said El Mala 51' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Said El Mala 53' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jahmai Simpson-Pusey 54' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Sebastian Sebulonsen 54' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Said El Mala 56' — Blocked Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Jahmai Simpson-Pusey 58' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Said El Mala 66' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)Wael Mohya 72' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Said El Mala 72' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Lukas Ullrich 80' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Hugo Bolin 82' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Zento Uno 87' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Lukas Ullrich 89' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Shuto Machino 91' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Wael Mohya 91' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Gian-Luca Waldschmidt 95' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)
FC Cologne attacking right Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Borussia M.Gladbach Florian Neuhaus 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot Robin Hack
2' Borussia M.Gladbach Philipp Sander 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
5' FC Cologne Luka Lochoshvili 0.06 Set Piece — Missed Shot Linton Maina
7' Borussia M.Gladbach Philipp Sander 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot —
12' FC Cologne Sebastian Sebulonsen 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ellyes Skhiri
14' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
15' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Borna Sosa
25' FC Cologne Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 0.04 Set Piece Left Foot Goal —
29' Borussia M.Gladbach Hugo Bolin 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Florian Neuhaus
30' FC Cologne Mikey Moore 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
32' Borussia M.Gladbach Joe Scally 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
33' Borussia M.Gladbach Isac Lidberg 0.05 Open Play — Missed Shot Hugo Bolin
37' Borussia M.Gladbach Philipp Sander 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Daiki Hashioka
38' Borussia M.Gladbach Joe Scally 0.37 Open Play — Goal —
41' FC Cologne Linton Maina 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Said El Mala
41' FC Cologne Sebastian Sebulonsen 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Borna Sosa
43' Borussia M.Gladbach Hugo Bolin 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Joe Scally
44' FC Cologne Borna Sosa 0.05 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot —
49' FC Cologne Linton Maina 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mikey Moore
49' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Marius Bülter
51' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Linton Maina
53' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
54' FC Cologne Jahmai Simpson-Pusey 0.05 From Corner — Missed Shot Borna Sosa
54' FC Cologne Sebastian Sebulonsen 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
56' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.42 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
58' FC Cologne Jahmai Simpson-Pusey 0.10 From Corner — Saved Shot —
66' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Goal Linton Maina
72' Borussia M.Gladbach Wael Mohya 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Zento Uno
72' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
80' Borussia M.Gladbach Lukas Ullrich 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Wael Mohya
82' Borussia M.Gladbach Hugo Bolin 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Shuto Machino
87' Borussia M.Gladbach Zento Uno 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Wael Mohya
89' Borussia M.Gladbach Lukas Ullrich 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
91' Borussia M.Gladbach Shuto Machino 0.05 From Corner — Missed Shot Philipp Sander
91' Borussia M.Gladbach Wael Mohya 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Philipp Sander
95' FC Cologne Gian-Luca Waldschmidt 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Tom Krauß

Players

Borussia M.Gladbach

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Joe Scally DMR 90 1 0 2 1 0.38 0.09 0.46
Hugo Bolin AMC 90 0 0 3 1 0.22 0.05 0.37
Philipp Sander MC 90 0 0 3 2 0.10 0.08 0.08
Lukas Ullrich DML 90 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.15
Moritz Nicolas GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Kevin Diks DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Daiki Hashioka DC 85 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Jan Leszczynski DC 85 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Florian Neuhaus MC 73 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.05 0.07
Isac Lidberg FW 69 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.08
Robin Hack AMC 69 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.11
Wael Mohya Sub 21 0 0 2 2 0.09 0.11 0.25
Shuto Machino Sub 21 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.08 0.12
Zento Uno Sub 17 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.06 0.21
Fabio Chiarodia Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Fritz Fleck Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.19

FC Cologne

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey DC 90 0 0 2 2 0.16 0.18 0.20
Sebastian Sebulonsen DR 90 0 0 3 0 0.12 0.00 0.07
Linton Maina MC 90 0 1 2 3 0.09 0.14 0.20
Borna Sosa DL 90 0 0 1 3 0.05 0.12 0.17
Mikey Moore AMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.03 0.07
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson MC 90 1 0 1 2 0.04 0.10 0.33
Marvin Schwäbe GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Marius Bülter FW 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
Said El Mala FW 83 1 0 8 1 0.89 0.06 0.94
Luka Lochoshvili DC 83 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.17
Ellyes Skhiri DMC 51 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.16
Tom Krauß Sub 39 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.17
Joël Schmied Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jan Thielmann Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Imad Rondic Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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