FC Cologne v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 9
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.25 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+1.71 – +1.90
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Cologne win
35.6%
Draw
25.3%
Borussia M.Gladbach win
39.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.56–1.65 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.58–1.39 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 60% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Cologne 1.29 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 1.10 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Cologne attacking right
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Franck Honorat |
| 3' |
 FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 6' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jakub Kaminski |
| 9' |
FC Cologne |
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ragnar Ache |
| 13' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Joe Scally |
| 19' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Philipp Sander | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jens Castrop |
| 19' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Philipp Sander | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 29' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.15 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 36' |
FC Cologne |
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Linton Maina |
| 49' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 50' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 51' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Stöger | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kristoffer Lund |
| 59' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yannick Engelhardt |
| 63' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 74' |
FC Cologne |
Felipe Chávez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 77' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 83' |
FC Cologne |
Eric Martel | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Goal | Florian Kainz |
| 91' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Bolin |
| 92' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Hugo Bolin | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Sander DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Rocco Reitz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Franck Honorat AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kevin Diks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Joe Scally DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.39 |
| Jens Castrop DML | 88 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.04 | 0.45 |
| Kevin Stöger AMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Hugo Bolin Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Lukas Ullrich Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shuto Machino Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marvin Friedrich Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristoffer Lund DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.86 |
| Jakub Kaminski AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.05 | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| Rav van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Eric Martel DMC | 89 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Ragnar Ache FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.11 | 0.72 |
| Said El Mala AML | 80 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Linton Maina AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson DMC | 73 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.91 |
| Cenny Neumann DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Felipe Chávez Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jan Thielmann Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Marius Bülter Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Kainz Sub | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |