FC Cologne v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 18
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 15
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.28 – 0.19
Goals − xG
+0.87 – +0.18
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Cologne win
28.0%
Draw
26.2%
Hoffenheim win
45.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.33–1.74 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.72–1.76 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 68% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Cologne 1.13 xGHoffenheim 1.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Cologne attacking right
Hoffenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Albian Hajdari |
| 8' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ozan Kabak |
| 14' |
 FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Said El Mala |
| 16' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 17' |
FC Cologne |
Cenk Özkacar | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 20' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ragnar Ache |
| 22' |
FC Cologne |
Eric Martel | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ragnar Ache |
| 22' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 24' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 28' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 29' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 34' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 34' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ozan Kabak |
| 44' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Albian Hajdari |
| 51' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 52' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 59' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 59' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 61' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 62' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jakub Kaminski |
| 65' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 78' |
Hoffenheim |
Alexander Prass | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristoffer Lund |
| 91' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Kramaric FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.03 | 0.64 |
| Ozan Kabak DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.14 | 0.54 |
| Bazoumana Touré DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.08 | 0.46 |
| Grischa Prömel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Fisnik Asllani FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.86 |
| Leon Avdullahu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Robin Hranác DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Vladimir Coufal DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.62 |
| Wouter Burger MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Alexander Prass Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Moerstedt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentin Gendrey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yannick Eduardo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Martel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jakub Kaminski AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Tom Krauß MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Joël Schmied DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rav van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kristoffer Lund DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Said El Mala AMC | 88 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.09 | 0.63 |
| Ragnar Ache FW | 88 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Bülter Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fynn Schenten Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |