FC Cologne v Schalke 04 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 9
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
6 – 8
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-1.20 – -0.46
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyFC Cologne win
51.1%
model 52.0%
Draw
22.1%
model 20.0%
Schalke 04 win
26.7%
model 27.9%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-1 8.4%
- 1-1 7.4%
- 2-2 7.0%
- 3-1 6.4%
- 1-2 6.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 75.0% | Under 2.5 | 25.0% |
| BTTS yes | 72.4% | BTTS no | 27.6% |
| FC Cologne 1+ | 89.7% | FC Cologne 2+ | 66.3% |
| Schalke 04 1+ | 80.7% | Schalke 04 2+ | 49.0% |
Expected goals 2.27 – 1.65. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
85/100
Data quality
90/100
Model agreement
89%
★ Best pick
FC Cologne over 1.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 51%
69.1% fair odds 1.45
strong signal · 1028 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Over 0.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT · usually 77%
83.7% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- At home FC Cologne average 2.09 xG a match.
Risk factors
- The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.89).
Why the model thinks this
The price
FC Cologne have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 26.7% for Schalke 04 and 22.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.27 for FC Cologne and 1.65 for Schalke 04.
Why FC Cologne
At home FC Cologne average 2.09 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Schalke 04 can win
Schalke 04 carry the stronger rating, 1571 Elo against 1430. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: FC Cologne were missing 1.28 expected goal involvements a match against 0.69.
Key players
FC Cologne's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ragnar Ache (0.40), Said El Mala (0.40), Thijs Dallinga (0.39). Schalke 04's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Junior Adamu (0.35), Moussa Sylla (0.35), Adil Aouchiche (0.33).
Availability
2 of FC Cologne's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Schalke 04's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
FC Cologne: 50% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.44 xG a match from set pieces. Schalke 04: 37% possession, 10.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
FC Cologne are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 8.4%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.8 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLWLDLWLD last 10
scored 12
from 16.8 xG
conceded 21
from 17.2 xG
Schalke 04 are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 7 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWDLLD last 7
scored 4
from 7.8 xG
conceded 7
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.27–1.65 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 2.34–1.21 | 2-1 10% | 69% | 63% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.34–1.21 | 2-1 10% | 69% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to win | 79.2% | 78.4% | 42.1% | 1.86× | 1.28 |
| Draw | 11.0% | 13.4% | 24.7% | 0.54× | 7.44 |
| Schalke 04 to win | 9.8% | 8.2% | 33.4% | 0.25× | 12.13 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne & both teams score | 55.8% | 50.7% | 22.3% | 2.27× | 1.97 |
| FC Cologne & not both score | 23.3% | 21.8% | 19.9% | 1.10× | 4.58 |
| Draw & both teams score | 10.5% | 13.3% | 19.0% | 0.70× | 7.54 |
| Schalke 04 & both teams score | 8.1% | 8.3% | 18.4% | 0.45× | 12.01 |
| Schalke 04 & not both score | 1.7% | 4.8% | 15.1% | 0.32× | 20.64 |
| Draw & not both score | 0.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 0.83× | 20.68 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne & over 1.5 | 77.1% | 75.4% | 35.8% | 2.11× | 1.33 |
| FC Cologne & over 2.5 | 73.2% | 67.6% | 29.9% | 2.26× | 1.48 |
| FC Cologne & over 3.5 | 62.6% | 54.7% | 20.4% | 2.69× | 1.83 |
| FC Cologne & under 3.5 | 16.6% | 18.0% | 21.9% | 0.82× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 10.5% | 12.8% | 19.0% | 0.68× | 7.79 |
| Schalke 04 & over 1.5 | 9.0% | 7.9% | 27.5% | 0.29× | 12.63 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 0.81× | 12.63 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 0.81× | 12.63 |
| Schalke 04 & over 2.5 | 8.5% | 7.9% | 23.4% | 0.34× | 12.63 |
| FC Cologne & under 2.5 | 6.0% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 0.65× | 12.63 |
| Schalke 04 & over 3.5 | 6.1% | 7.9% | 14.1% | 0.56× | 12.63 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 3.5% | 4.8% | 15.1% | 0.32× | 20.82 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 3.5% | 4.8% | 15.1% | 0.32× | 20.82 |
| Schalke 04 & under 3.5 | 3.7% | 4.8% | 19.5% | 0.25× | 20.81 |
| FC Cologne & under 1.5 | 2.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 0.75× | 20.82 |
| Schalke 04 & under 2.5 | 1.3% | 4.8% | 10.2% | 0.47× | 20.83 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 0.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 0.82× | 20.83 |
| Schalke 04 & under 1.5 | 0.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 0.80× | 20.83 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (1UP) | 89.3% | 91.3% | 60.1% | 1.52× | 1.10 |
| Schalke 04 (1UP) | 34.1% | 33.1% | 52.2% | 0.63× | 3.02 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (2UP) | 79.2% | 78.0% | 45.4% | 1.72× | 1.28 |
| Schalke 04 (2UP) | 10.5% | 13.8% | 36.4% | 0.38× | 7.26 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to win 2nd half | 75.2% | 76.8% | 37.5% | 2.05× | 1.30 |
| 2nd half drawn | 15.4% | 17.9% | 33.6% | 0.53× | 5.58 |
| Schalke 04 to win 2nd half | 9.4% | 7.5% | 29.1% | 0.26× | 13.29 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 under 1.5 in 2nd half | 81.8% | 84.3% | 79.5% | 1.06× | 1.19 |
| Schalke 04 over 0.5 in 2nd half | 53.9% | 52.7% | 56.5% | 0.93× | 1.90 |
| Schalke 04 under 0.5 in 2nd half | 46.1% | 47.3% | 43.5% | 1.09× | 2.11 |
| Schalke 04 over 1.5 in 2nd half | 18.2% | 15.7% | 20.5% | 0.76× | 6.37 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne over 0.5 in 2nd half | 92.0% | 94.0% | 63.1% | 1.49× | 1.06 |
| FC Cologne over 1.5 in 2nd half | 71.6% | 73.9% | 25.6% | 2.88× | 1.35 |
| FC Cologne under 1.5 in 2nd half | 28.4% | 26.1% | 74.4% | 0.35× | 3.83 |
| FC Cologne under 0.5 in 2nd half | 8.0% | 6.0% | 36.9% | 0.16× | 16.78 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (+0.5) | 90.2% | 92.1% | 66.6% | 1.38× | 1.09 |
| FC Cologne (-0.5) | 79.2% | 78.5% | 42.1% | 1.87× | 1.27 |
| FC Cologne (-1.5) | 63.3% | 62.9% | 24.6% | 2.56× | 1.59 |
| Schalke 04 (+2.5) | 54.8% | 52.4% | 88.0% | 0.60× | 1.91 |
| FC Cologne (-2.5) | 45.2% | 47.6% | 12.0% | 3.97× | 2.10 |
| Schalke 04 (+1.5) | 36.7% | 37.1% | 75.4% | 0.49× | 2.70 |
| Schalke 04 (+0.5) | 20.8% | 21.5% | 57.9% | 0.37× | 4.65 |
| Schalke 04 (-0.5) | 9.8% | 7.9% | 33.4% | 0.24× | 12.66 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 to concede | 97.7% | 96.7% | 79.2% | 1.22× | 1.04 |
| Schalke 04 clean sheet | 2.3% | 3.3% | 20.8% | 0.16× | 29.94 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 to concede in 1st half | 71.5% | 77.1% | 51.9% | 1.49× | 1.30 |
| Schalke 04 clean sheet in 1st half | 28.5% | 22.9% | 48.1% | 0.47× | 4.38 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 to concede in 2nd half | 92.0% | 92.4% | 63.1% | 1.46× | 1.08 |
| Schalke 04 clean sheet in 2nd half | 8.0% | 7.6% | 36.9% | 0.21× | 13.08 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 under 6.5 corners | 85.7% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Schalke 04 under 5.5 corners | 76.3% | 76.0% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Schalke 04 over 2.5 corners | 71.3% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Schalke 04 under 4.5 corners | 63.0% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Schalke 04 over 3.5 corners | 53.5% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Schalke 04 under 3.5 corners | 46.5% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Schalke 04 over 4.5 corners | 37.0% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Schalke 04 under 2.5 corners | 28.7% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.52 |
| Schalke 04 over 5.5 corners | 23.7% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.17 |
| Schalke 04 over 6.5 corners | 14.3% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.77 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 under 3.5 goals | 94.3% | 92.4% | 92.7% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Schalke 04 under 2.5 goals | 82.6% | 81.5% | 79.2% | 1.03× | 1.23 |
| Schalke 04 over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | 76.2% | 74.4% | 1.02× | 1.31 |
| Schalke 04 under 1.5 goals | 58.1% | 59.4% | 57.2% | 1.04× | 1.68 |
| Schalke 04 over 1.5 goals | 41.9% | 40.6% | 42.8% | 0.95× | 2.46 |
| Schalke 04 under 0.5 goals | 23.9% | 23.8% | 25.6% | 0.93× | 4.21 |
| Schalke 04 over 2.5 goals | 17.4% | 18.5% | 20.8% | 0.89× | 5.39 |
| Schalke 04 over 3.5 goals | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 1.04× | 13.07 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 under 1.5 in 1st half | 85.9% | 89.2% | 85.8% | 1.04× | 1.12 |
| Schalke 04 under 0.5 in 1st half | 51.8% | 55.4% | 54.4% | 1.02× | 1.80 |
| Schalke 04 over 0.5 in 1st half | 48.2% | 44.6% | 45.6% | 0.98× | 2.24 |
| Schalke 04 over 1.5 in 1st half | 14.1% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 0.76× | 9.28 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 scores equally in both | 37.7% | 37.3% | 39.6% | 0.94× | 2.68 |
| Schalke 04 scores more in 2nd half | 34.7% | 33.7% | 36.4% | 0.93× | 2.97 |
| Schalke 04 scores more in 1st half | 27.7% | 26.3% | 24.1% | 1.09× | 3.80 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (away no bet) | 87.8% | 84.7% | 63.0% | 1.34× | 1.18 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 12.2% | 15.3% | 37.0% | 0.41× | 6.52 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 even goals | 52.9% | 52.6% | 53.6% | 0.98× | 1.90 |
| Schalke 04 odd goals | 47.1% | 47.4% | 46.4% | 1.02× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 52.1% | 54.8% | 75.3% | 0.73× | 1.83 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 47.9% | 45.2% | 24.7% | 1.83× | 2.21 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 93.1% | 92.4% | 72.3% | 1.28× | 1.08 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 6.9% | 7.6% | 27.7% | 0.28× | 13.09 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 88.6% | 90.3% | 66.4% | 1.36× | 1.11 |
| FC Cologne to score 2+ in a row | 81.8% | 80.3% | 42.6% | 1.89× | 1.25 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 59.1% | 55.3% | 29.2% | 1.89× | 1.81 |
| FC Cologne to score 3+ in a row | 55.4% | 55.1% | 17.8% | 3.09× | 1.82 |
| Schalke 04 to score 2+ in a row | 23.9% | 19.7% | 34.3% | 0.57× | 5.09 |
| Schalke 04 to score 3+ in a row | 5.4% | 5.5% | 12.3% | 0.45× | 18.11 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne corners (+3.5) | 92.7% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| FC Cologne corners (+2.5) | 88.2% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| FC Cologne corners (+1.5) | 81.8% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Schalke 04 corners (+3.5) | 67.8% | 65.9% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Schalke 04 corners (+2.5) | 57.8% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| FC Cologne corners (-1.5) | 53.0% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Schalke 04 corners (+1.5) | 47.0% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| FC Cologne corners (-2.5) | 42.2% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| FC Cologne corners (-3.5) | 32.2% | 34.1% | — | — | 2.93 |
| Schalke 04 corners (-1.5) | 18.2% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Schalke 04 corners (-2.5) | 11.8% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
| Schalke 04 corners (-3.5) | 7.3% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.59 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 38.8% | 34.0% | — | — | 2.94 |
| 12+ corners | 31.2% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| 9-11 corners | 30.0% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.21 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 76.6% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 71.5% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 68.8% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 61.2% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 59.6% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50.6% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 49.4% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 40.4% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 38.8% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 31.2% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.11 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 28.5% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 23.4% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any other score | 33.1% | 23.8% | 5.8% | 4.08× | 4.20 |
| 3-1 | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 1.24× | 13.51 |
| 4-1 | 6.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 3.53× | 13.51 |
| 2-1 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 1.03× | 13.51 |
| 3-2 | 5.1% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 2.15× | 13.51 |
| 3-0 | 5.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.64× | 58.29 |
| 4-2 | 4.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.64× | 58.29 |
| 0-0 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 5.8% | 0.29× | 58.32 |
| 0-1 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 6.0% | 0.29× | 58.31 |
| 0-2 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 0.40× | 58.32 |
| 0-3 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 0.60× | 58.32 |
| 0-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.15× | 58.32 |
| 1-0 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 6.4% | 0.27× | 58.31 |
| 1-1 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 9.4% | 0.18× | 58.30 |
| 1-2 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 6.7% | 0.25× | 58.31 |
| 1-3 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 0.37× | 58.31 |
| 1-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.04× | 58.32 |
| 2-0 | 3.9% | 1.7% | 6.0% | 0.29× | 58.30 |
| 2-2 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 6.7% | 0.25× | 58.30 |
| 2-3 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.64× | 58.31 |
| 2-4 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.64× | 58.32 |
| 3-3 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 0.60× | 58.31 |
| 3-4 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.04× | 58.31 |
| 4-0 | 4.7% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 0.50× | 58.29 |
| 4-3 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.64× | 58.31 |
| 4-4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 3.82× | 58.31 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (2nd half DNB) | 88.9% | 87.2% | 56.3% | 1.55× | 1.15 |
| Schalke 04 (2nd half DNB) | 11.1% | 12.8% | 43.7% | 0.29× | 7.80 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne leading at HT (DNB) | 72.3% | 73.8% | 55.6% | 1.33× | 1.35 |
| Schalke 04 leading at HT (DNB) | 27.7% | 26.2% | 44.4% | 0.59× | 3.82 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne or draw (1X) | 90.2% | 91.8% | 66.6% | 1.38× | 1.09 |
| FC Cologne or Schalke 04 (12) | 89.0% | 86.6% | 75.3% | 1.15× | 1.16 |
| Schalke 04 or draw (X2) | 20.8% | 21.6% | 57.9% | 0.37× | 4.63 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne or draw at HT | 80.5% | 84.2% | 70.6% | 1.19× | 1.19 |
| FC Cologne or Schalke 04 at HT | 70.3% | 75.0% | 66.0% | 1.14× | 1.33 |
| Schalke 04 or draw at HT | 49.2% | 53.1% | 63.3% | 0.84× | 1.89 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne or draw (1UP) | 90.2% | 93.2% | 73.8% | 1.26× | 1.07 |
| Schalke 04 or draw (1UP) | 34.1% | 39.3% | 64.6% | 0.61× | 2.55 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne or draw in 2nd half | 90.6% | 92.5% | 70.9% | 1.30× | 1.08 |
| FC Cologne or Schalke 04 in 2nd half | 84.6% | 82.1% | 66.4% | 1.24× | 1.22 |
| Schalke 04 or draw in 2nd half | 24.8% | 23.2% | 62.5% | 0.37× | 4.30 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half drawn | 59.4% | 58.5% | 46.0% | 1.27× | 1.71 |
| A half drawn | 40.6% | 41.5% | 54.0% | 0.77× | 2.41 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (DNB) | 89.0% | 87.2% | 55.8% | 1.56× | 1.15 |
| Schalke 04 (DNB) | 11.0% | 12.8% | 44.2% | 0.29× | 7.82 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to score first | 72.2% | 75.4% | 51.1% | 1.47× | 1.33 |
| Schalke 04 to score first | 27.3% | 27.9% | 43.2% | 0.65× | 3.59 |
| No goal scored | 0.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 0.72× | 23.86 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 74.4% | 62.7% | 59.4% | 1.05× | 1.60 |
| Not both teams to score | 25.6% | 37.3% | 40.6% | 0.92× | 2.68 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 71.4% | 59.1% | 50.2% | 1.18× | 1.69 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 17.7% | 21.6% | 12.7% | 1.69× | 4.64 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 7.9% | 8.3% | 28.0% | 0.30× | 12.06 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 3.0% | 4.6% | 9.4% | 0.49× | 21.58 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 62.7% | 70.7% | 79.3% | 0.89× | 1.41 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 37.3% | 29.3% | 20.7% | 1.42× | 3.42 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 50.4% | 50.9% | 65.1% | 0.78× | 1.96 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 49.6% | 49.1% | 34.9% | 1.40× | 2.04 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 33.0% | 27.4% | 51.3% | 0.53× | 3.65 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 32.5% | 27.3% | 28.3% | 0.96× | 3.67 |
| Both score 1st half only | 17.4% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 1.08× | 6.65 |
| Both score in both halves | 17.1% | 15.0% | 6.7% | 2.23× | 6.66 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 65.5% | 69.6% | 79.5% | 0.88× | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 34.5% | 30.4% | 20.5% | 1.48× | 3.29 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 82.1% | 80.9% | 67.5% | 1.20× | 1.24 |
| A half without a goal | 17.9% | 19.1% | 32.5% | 0.59× | 5.24 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 goals | 50.2% | 41.1% | 39.7% | 1.04× | 2.43 |
| 7+ goals | 26.0% | 26.6% | 4.3% | 6.13× | 3.76 |
| 2-3 goals | 20.4% | 22.9% | 38.3% | 0.60× | 4.37 |
| 0-1 goals | 3.4% | 1.8% | 18.0% | 0.10× | 54.16 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 to score exactly 1 | 34.2% | 33.8% | 31.7% | 1.07× | 2.96 |
| Schalke 04 to score exactly 2 | 24.5% | 22.3% | 22.2% | 1.01× | 4.48 |
| Schalke 04 to score exactly 0 | 23.9% | 22.3% | 25.6% | 0.87× | 4.48 |
| Schalke 04 to score 3+ | 17.4% | 19.6% | 20.8% | 0.94× | 5.11 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to score 3+ | 72.6% | 65.7% | 27.5% | 2.39× | 1.52 |
| FC Cologne to score exactly 2 | 16.5% | 18.8% | 23.2% | 0.81× | 5.33 |
| FC Cologne to score exactly 1 | 8.7% | 10.3% | 28.7% | 0.36× | 9.70 |
| FC Cologne to score exactly 0 | 2.3% | 6.1% | 20.8% | 0.29× | 16.32 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne leading at HT | 50.8% | 46.9% | 36.7% | 1.28× | 2.13 |
| Draw at HT | 29.7% | 25.0% | 34.0% | 0.73× | 4.00 |
| Schalke 04 leading at HT | 19.5% | 15.8% | 29.4% | 0.54× | 6.32 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne -1: 1 | 63.3% | 62.5% | — | — | 1.60 |
| FC Cologne -1: 2 | 20.8% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| FC Cologne -1: X | 15.9% | 17.5% | — | — | 5.71 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (0:1) | 63.3% | 61.4% | 24.6% | 2.50× | 1.63 |
| Schalke 04 (0:1) | 20.8% | 24.2% | 57.9% | 0.42× | 4.13 |
| Draw (0:1) | 15.9% | 17.8% | 17.7% | 1.01× | 5.61 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (0:2) | 45.2% | 50.9% | 12.0% | 4.25× | 1.96 |
| Schalke 04 (0:2) | 36.7% | 38.2% | 75.4% | 0.51× | 2.62 |
| Draw (0:2) | 18.1% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 1.20× | 6.54 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 (0:3) | 54.8% | 48.8% | 88.0% | 0.55× | 2.05 |
| FC Cologne (0:3) | 28.5% | 23.9% | 7.2% | 3.32× | 4.19 |
| Draw (0:3) | 16.7% | 16.1% | 4.9% | 3.26× | 6.20 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 (0:4) | 71.5% | 76.9% | 92.8% | 0.83× | 1.30 |
| FC Cologne (0:4) | 15.7% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 4.20× | 9.93 |
| Draw (0:4) | 12.8% | 10.0% | 4.9% | 2.02× | 10.02 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (1:0) | 90.2% | 92.5% | 66.6% | 1.39× | 1.08 |
| Draw (1:0) | 6.0% | 6.9% | 16.6% | 0.41× | 14.52 |
| Schalke 04 (1:0) | 3.8% | 3.3% | 16.9% | 0.19× | 30.51 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (2:0) | 96.2% | 96.8% | 83.1% | 1.16× | 1.03 |
| Draw (2:0) | 2.6% | 2.3% | 9.9% | 0.23× | 43.67 |
| Schalke 04 (2:0) | 1.2% | 2.3% | 7.2% | 0.32× | 43.75 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 64.6% | 64.6% | 47.4% | 1.36× | 1.55 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 20.1% | 24.3% | 25.9% | 0.94× | 4.12 |
| Halves equal | 15.3% | 18.7% | 26.8% | 0.70× | 5.36 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to concede | 76.1% | 76.0% | 74.4% | 1.02× | 1.32 |
| FC Cologne clean sheet | 23.9% | 24.0% | 25.6% | 0.94× | 4.18 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne clean sheet in 1st half | 51.8% | 55.4% | 54.4% | 1.02× | 1.80 |
| FC Cologne to concede in 1st half | 48.2% | 44.6% | 45.6% | 0.98× | 2.24 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to concede in 2nd half | 53.9% | 52.8% | 56.5% | 0.93× | 1.90 |
| FC Cologne clean sheet in 2nd half | 46.1% | 47.2% | 43.5% | 1.09× | 2.12 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne over 2.5 corners | 88.2% | 86.2% | — | — | 1.16 |
| FC Cologne over 3.5 corners | 77.3% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| FC Cologne over 4.5 corners | 64.1% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| FC Cologne under 6.5 corners | 62.3% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| FC Cologne over 5.5 corners | 50.4% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| FC Cologne under 5.5 corners | 49.6% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| FC Cologne over 6.5 corners | 37.7% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| FC Cologne under 4.5 corners | 35.9% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| FC Cologne under 3.5 corners | 22.7% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| FC Cologne under 2.5 corners | 11.8% | 13.8% | — | — | 7.27 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne over 0.5 goals | 97.7% | 96.4% | 79.2% | 1.22× | 1.04 |
| FC Cologne over 1.5 goals | 89.0% | 87.3% | 50.6% | 1.72× | 1.15 |
| FC Cologne over 2.5 goals | 72.6% | 74.2% | 27.5% | 2.70× | 1.35 |
| FC Cologne over 3.5 goals | 51.8% | 53.2% | 11.7% | 4.56× | 1.88 |
| FC Cologne under 3.5 goals | 48.2% | 46.8% | 88.3% | 0.53× | 2.14 |
| FC Cologne under 2.5 goals | 27.4% | 25.8% | 72.5% | 0.36× | 3.88 |
| FC Cologne under 1.5 goals | 11.0% | 12.7% | 49.4% | 0.26× | 7.85 |
| FC Cologne under 0.5 goals | 2.3% | 3.6% | 20.8% | 0.17× | 27.55 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne over 0.5 in 1st half | 71.5% | 79.0% | 51.9% | 1.52× | 1.27 |
| FC Cologne under 1.5 in 1st half | 64.3% | 65.0% | 80.5% | 0.81× | 1.54 |
| FC Cologne over 1.5 in 1st half | 35.7% | 35.0% | 19.5% | 1.79× | 2.86 |
| FC Cologne under 0.5 in 1st half | 28.5% | 21.0% | 48.1% | 0.44× | 4.75 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne scores more in 2nd half | 64.7% | 64.7% | 38.2% | 1.69× | 1.55 |
| FC Cologne scores equally in both | 17.9% | 15.5% | 36.7% | 0.42× | 6.46 |
| FC Cologne scores more in 1st half | 17.4% | 15.3% | 25.2% | 0.61× | 6.55 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 52.9% | 51.4% | 42.5% | 1.21× | 1.95 |
| Schalke 04 (home no bet) | 47.1% | 48.6% | 57.5% | 0.85× | 2.06 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne even goals | 50.1% | 50.7% | 52.7% | 0.96× | 1.97 |
| FC Cologne odd goals | 49.9% | 49.3% | 47.3% | 1.04× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 1-0 | 18.5% | 18.6% | 19.2% | 0.97× | 5.38 |
| Any other HT score | 15.8% | 18.5% | 6.9% | 2.69× | 5.39 |
| HT 0-0 | 14.8% | 11.0% | 23.1% | 0.48× | 9.05 |
| HT 1-1 | 12.2% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 1.13× | 9.08 |
| HT 2-0 | 11.6% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 1.17× | 9.08 |
| HT 0-1 | 9.7% | 6.9% | 16.6% | 0.42× | 14.45 |
| HT 2-1 | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.65× | 14.48 |
| HT 1-2 | 4.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 0.69× | 42.02 |
| HT 0-2 | 3.2% | 2.4% | 7.2% | 0.33× | 42.07 |
| HT 2-2 | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.76× | 42.11 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne at HT / FC Cologne at FT | 47.8% | 47.5% | 28.2% | 1.69× | 2.10 |
| Draw at HT / FC Cologne at FT | 22.3% | 21.8% | 10.9% | 1.99× | 4.59 |
| Schalke 04 at HT / FC Cologne at FT | 9.0% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.83× | 16.57 |
| Schalke 04 at HT / Schalke 04 at FT | 6.2% | 6.0% | 20.4% | 0.29× | 16.65 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 4.6% | 3.5% | 13.6% | 0.26× | 28.60 |
| Schalke 04 at HT / Draw at FT | 4.2% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 0.58× | 28.61 |
| Draw at HT / Schalke 04 at FT | 2.8% | 3.5% | 9.7% | 0.36× | 28.66 |
| FC Cologne at HT / Draw at FT | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 0.66× | 28.68 |
| FC Cologne at HT / Schalke 04 at FT | 0.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 0.97× | 28.74 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to score last | 72.0% | 72.9% | 49.9% | 1.46× | 1.37 |
| Schalke 04 to score last | 27.5% | 27.6% | 44.4% | 0.62× | 3.62 |
| No goal scored | 0.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 0.72× | 23.86 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 99.5% | 95.7% | 94.2% | 1.02× | 1.04 |
| FC Cologne to lead by 1 at any time | 89.3% | 91.6% | 60.1% | 1.52× | 1.09 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 80.9% | 87.3% | 55.6% | 1.57× | 1.15 |
| FC Cologne to lead by 2 at any time | 72.0% | 74.2% | 33.0% | 2.25× | 1.35 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 54.4% | 50.9% | 25.5% | 2.00× | 1.96 |
| FC Cologne to lead by 3 at any time | 51.6% | 50.8% | 15.7% | 3.23× | 1.97 |
| Schalke 04 to lead by 1 at any time | 34.1% | 29.9% | 52.2% | 0.57× | 3.35 |
| Schalke 04 to lead by 2 at any time | 10.5% | 10.4% | 23.4% | 0.45× | 9.60 |
| Schalke 04 to lead by 3 at any time | 2.9% | 1.6% | 9.9% | 0.16× | 61.91 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne most corners | 63.7% | 60.6% | — | — | 1.65 |
| Schalke 04 most corners | 26.5% | 31.1% | — | — | 3.21 |
| Corners level | 9.8% | 8.4% | — | — | 11.96 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-6 goals | 70.6% | 72.4% | 77.8% | 0.93× | 1.38 |
| 3-6 goals | 63.1% | 63.3% | 58.5% | 1.08× | 1.58 |
| 1-5 goals | 58.0% | 59.1% | 82.9% | 0.71× | 1.69 |
| 2-5 goals | 55.2% | 59.1% | 70.8% | 0.83× | 1.69 |
| 4-6 goals | 50.2% | 53.2% | 39.7% | 1.34× | 1.88 |
| 3-5 goals | 47.7% | 48.5% | 51.5% | 0.94× | 2.06 |
| 1-4 goals | 40.3% | 43.6% | 72.0% | 0.61× | 2.30 |
| 2-4 goals | 37.4% | 39.2% | 59.9% | 0.65× | 2.55 |
| 4-5 goals | 34.7% | 35.2% | 32.6% | 1.08× | 2.84 |
| 5-6 goals | 33.2% | 35.2% | 18.1% | 1.94× | 2.84 |
| 3-4 goals | 30.0% | 30.2% | 40.6% | 0.75× | 3.31 |
| 7+ goals | 26.0% | 30.2% | 4.3% | 6.96× | 3.31 |
| 1-3 goals | 23.3% | 24.5% | 50.4% | 0.49× | 4.08 |
| 2-3 goals | 20.4% | 24.5% | 38.3% | 0.64× | 4.09 |
| 1-2 goals | 10.3% | 14.8% | 31.6% | 0.47× | 6.76 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne never behind | 65.4% | 68.8% | 47.8% | 1.44× | 1.45 |
| Schalke 04 never behind | 10.2% | 11.6% | 39.9% | 0.29× | 8.61 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 50.0% | 50.9% | 45.7% | 1.12× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.0% | 49.1% | 54.3% | 0.90× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 51.1% | 51.6% | 52.5% | 0.98× | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 48.9% | 48.4% | 47.5% | 1.02× | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 50.2% | 51.9% | 53.1% | 0.98× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 49.8% | 48.1% | 46.9% | 1.03× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 99.5% | 95.4% | 94.2% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 96.6% | 95.4% | 82.0% | 1.16× | 1.05 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89.1% | 87.6% | 62.7% | 1.40× | 1.14 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 76.2% | 77.3% | 43.9% | 1.76× | 1.29 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 59.2% | 58.6% | 22.3% | 2.63× | 1.71 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 58.6% | 58.6% | 88.6% | 0.66× | 1.71 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 41.4% | 41.4% | 11.4% | 3.64× | 2.42 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 40.8% | 41.4% | 77.7% | 0.53× | 2.42 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 23.8% | 22.7% | 56.1% | 0.40× | 4.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 10.9% | 12.4% | 37.3% | 0.33× | 8.07 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.4% | 4.6% | 18.0% | 0.25× | 21.86 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 0.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.78× | 21.91 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 96.3% | 97.2% | 77.7% | 1.25× | 1.03 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 87.5% | 86.7% | 54.1% | 1.60× | 1.15 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 71.3% | 72.4% | 28.4% | 2.55× | 1.38 |
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 69.3% | 67.5% | 95.3% | 0.71× | 1.48 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 50.4% | 51.9% | 12.8% | 4.06× | 1.93 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 49.6% | 48.1% | 87.2% | 0.55× | 2.08 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 30.7% | 32.5% | 4.7% | 6.97× | 3.07 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 28.7% | 27.6% | 71.6% | 0.39× | 3.62 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 12.5% | 13.3% | 45.9% | 0.29× | 7.53 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 3.7% | 2.8% | 22.3% | 0.13× | 35.55 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 85.2% | 89.1% | 76.9% | 1.16× | 1.12 |
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 70.0% | 71.8% | 84.6% | 0.85× | 1.39 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 57.0% | 63.6% | 41.4% | 1.54× | 1.57 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 43.0% | 36.4% | 58.6% | 0.62× | 2.75 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 30.0% | 28.2% | 15.4% | 1.83× | 3.54 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 14.8% | 10.9% | 23.1% | 0.47× | 9.18 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 96.3% | 96.4% | 84.7% | 1.14× | 1.04 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 84.0% | 83.2% | 55.6% | 1.50× | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 63.8% | 61.7% | 27.0% | 2.29× | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 36.2% | 38.3% | 73.0% | 0.53× | 2.61 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 16.0% | 16.8% | 44.4% | 0.38× | 5.96 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 3.7% | 3.6% | 15.3% | 0.24× | 27.71 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 not to score in both halves | 74.0% | 74.0% | 72.3% | 1.02× | 1.35 |
| FC Cologne to score in both halves | 65.8% | 69.8% | 35.8% | 1.95× | 1.43 |
| FC Cologne not to score in both halves | 34.2% | 30.2% | 64.2% | 0.47× | 3.31 |
| Schalke 04 to score in both halves | 26.0% | 26.0% | 27.7% | 0.94× | 3.84 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 74.4% | 66.6% | 59.4% | 1.12× | 1.50 |
| Only FC Cologne scores | 23.3% | 22.3% | 19.9% | 1.12× | 4.49 |
| Only Schalke 04 scores | 1.7% | 4.6% | 15.1% | 0.30× | 21.77 |
| Neither team scores | 0.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.78× | 21.82 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 or more goals | 41.4% | 38.7% | 11.4% | 3.40× | 2.58 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 17.7% | 17.5% | 11.1% | 1.58× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 17.0% | 17.5% | 21.7% | 0.80× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 13.0% | 12.1% | 19.0% | 0.64× | 8.24 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 7.5% | 7.6% | 19.5% | 0.39× | 13.13 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 2.9% | 4.5% | 12.3% | 0.36× | 22.40 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 0.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 0.76× | 22.43 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 30.0% | 28.3% | 15.4% | 1.83× | 3.53 |
| 1 goal in 1st half | 28.2% | 28.3% | 35.7% | 0.79× | 3.54 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 27.0% | 28.2% | 26.1% | 1.08× | 3.54 |
| No goals in 1st half | 14.8% | 10.8% | 23.1% | 0.47× | 9.26 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 84.0% | 84.0% | 55.6% | 1.51× | 1.19 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 12.3% | 14.3% | 29.2% | 0.49× | 7.01 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 3.7% | 3.6% | 15.3% | 0.24× | 27.71 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 not to win both halves | 98.2% | 97.2% | 90.9% | 1.07× | 1.03 |
| FC Cologne not to win both halves | 61.8% | 68.5% | 84.0% | 0.82× | 1.46 |
| FC Cologne to win both halves | 38.2% | 31.5% | 16.0% | 1.96× | 3.18 |
| Schalke 04 to win both halves | 1.8% | 2.8% | 9.1% | 0.30× | 36.02 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to win either half | 87.8% | 92.4% | 58.2% | 1.59× | 1.08 |
| Schalke 04 to win neither half | 73.0% | 73.1% | 50.7% | 1.44× | 1.37 |
| Schalke 04 to win either half | 27.0% | 26.9% | 49.3% | 0.55× | 3.71 |
| FC Cologne to win neither half | 12.2% | 7.6% | 41.8% | 0.18× | 13.18 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 not to win to nil | 98.3% | 96.2% | 84.9% | 1.13× | 1.04 |
| FC Cologne not to win to nil | 76.7% | 78.1% | 80.1% | 0.98× | 1.28 |
| FC Cologne to win to nil | 23.3% | 21.9% | 19.9% | 1.10× | 4.57 |
| Schalke 04 to win to nil | 1.7% | 3.8% | 15.1% | 0.25× | 26.36 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne by 3+ | 45.2% | 47.1% | 12.0% | 3.93× | 2.12 |
| FC Cologne by 2 | 18.1% | 17.1% | 12.7% | 1.34× | 5.87 |
| FC Cologne by 1 | 15.9% | 17.0% | 17.7% | 0.96× | 5.87 |
| Draw | 11.0% | 11.8% | 24.7% | 0.48× | 8.51 |
| Schalke 04 by 1 | 6.0% | 7.2% | 16.6% | 0.43× | 13.91 |
| Schalke 04 by 2 | 2.6% | 2.7% | 9.9% | 0.27× | 36.82 |
| Schalke 04 by 3+ | 1.2% | 2.7% | 7.2% | 0.38× | 36.87 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Cologne 1.20 xGSchalke 04 0.46 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Cologne attacking right
Schalke 04 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Schalke 04 |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Robin Gosens |
| 14' |
Schalke 04 |
Junior Adamu | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hee-Chan Hwang |
| 15' |
Schalke 04 |
Nikola Katic | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Robin Gosens |
| 16' |
 FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
FC Cologne |
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 19' |
Schalke 04 |
Adil Aouchiche | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Soufiane El-Faouzi |
| 21' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 21' |
Schalke 04 |
Soufiane El-Faouzi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Junior Adamu |
| 31' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jahmai Simpson-Pusey |
| 45' |
FC Cologne |
Mikey Moore | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 45' |
Schalke 04 |
Junior Adamu | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Adil Aouchiche |
| 46' |
FC Cologne |
Mikey Moore | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Borna Sosa |
| 49' |
Schalke 04 |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Borna Sosa |
| 51' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Linton Maina |
| 60' |
FC Cologne |
Mikey Moore | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastian Sebulonsen |
| 69' |
Schalke 04 |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adil Aouchiche |
| 73' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 78' |
Schalke 04 |
Satoshi Tanaka | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Janik Bachmann |
| 89' |
FC Cologne |
Borna Sosa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gian-Luca Waldschmidt |
Players
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marius Bülter FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.10 | 0.44 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Borna Sosa DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Luka Lochoshvili DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Linton Maina AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| Jahmai Simpson-Pusey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.44 |
| Said El Mala AML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Tom Krauß DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Mikey Moore AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Paul Okon-Engstler Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reigan Heskey Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joël Schmied Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Thielmann Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Schalke 04
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Junior Adamu FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Adil Aouchiche MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.32 |
| Nikola Katic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Satoshi Tanaka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Loris Karius GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hasan Kuruçay DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Timo Becker DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Janik Bachmann Sub | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Vitalie Becker Sub | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Soufiane El-Faouzi MC | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Robin Gosens DL | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |