FC Cologne v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 December 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 11
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.27 – 1.29
Goals − xG
-0.68 – -0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Cologne win
41.0%
Draw
26.1%
Union Berlin win
32.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.8 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLWLDLWLD last 10
scored 12
from 16.8 xG
conceded 21
from 17.2 xG
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.52–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–1.26 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Cologne 0.68 xGUnion Berlin 1.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Cologne attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 FC Cologne |
Eric Martel | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 5' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Thielmann |
| 11' |
 Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Union Berlin |
Diogo Leite | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 22' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 29' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Derrick Köhn |
| 38' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastian Sebulonsen |
| 38' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jan Thielmann |
| 41' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danilho Doekhi |
| 59' |
FC Cologne |
Jan Thielmann | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
FC Cologne |
Tom Krauß | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 67' |
Union Berlin |
Aljoscha Kemlein | 0.37 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Union Berlin |
Diogo Leite | 0.11 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leopold Querfeld |
| 84' |
Union Berlin |
Livan Burcu | 0.55 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tim Skarke |
| 89' |
Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Derrick Köhn |
| 90' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 92' |
FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Sebulonsen |
| 92' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cenk Özkacar |
| 96' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Derrick Köhn DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilyas Ansah AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Christopher Trimmel DMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Burke FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Livan Burcu Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Andrej Ilic Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josip Juranovic Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Andras Schafer Sub | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| Kristoffer Lund DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Eric Martel DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Jakub Kaminski AML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.25 |
| Dominique Heintz DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Rav van den Berg DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jan Thielmann AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Tom Krauß DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Ragnar Ache FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marius Bülter Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Said El Mala Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Denis Huseinbasic Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Linton Maina Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cenk Özkacar Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |