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FC Cologne v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 12 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

FC Cologne
3–1
3.91 – 0.87 xG
Werder Bremen
Shots
26 – 6
On target
9 – 2
Shots in box
17 – 2
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
2.48 – 0.82
Goals − xG
-1.40 – +0.13

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
FC Cologne win
43.3%
Draw
26.4%
Werder Bremen win
30.3%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DDWDLDLLWL last 10 scored 18 from 22.3 xG conceded 25 from 19.5 xG

Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLLWDLLLLW last 10 scored 12 from 9.3 xG conceded 18 from 21.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 1.61–1.32 0% 0% 0% Home ✓
dc-xg-oos 1.56–1.28 1-1 12% 54% 57% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.22.53.74.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Said El Mala 6' — goalRagnar Ache 64' — goalRomano Schmid 75' — goalÍsak Bergmann Jóhannesson 96' — goal
FC Cologne 4.40 xGWerder Bremen 0.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Said El Mala 6' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Marco Grüll 13' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Senne Lynen 20' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Jan Thielmann 21' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jan Thielmann 27' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ragnar Ache 28' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jakub Kaminski 29' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Cenk Özkacar 35' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Eric Martel 35' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Said El Mala 35' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Sebastian Sebulonsen 35' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Jan Thielmann 37' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 40' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jakub Kaminski 44' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 45' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Ragnar Ache 47' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Senne Lynen 51' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Ragnar Ache 61' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Cenk Özkacar 64' — Shot On Post (0.02 xG, From Corner)Ragnar Ache 64' — Saved Shot (0.66 xG, From Corner)Ragnar Ache 64' — Goal (0.71 xG, From Corner)Romano Schmid 75' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Gian-Luca Waldschmidt 76' — Shot On Post (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jakub Kaminski 79' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Alessio Castro-Montes 82' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Sebastian Sebulonsen 82' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Justin Njinmah 86' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Gian-Luca Waldschmidt 88' — Saved Shot (0.54 xG, Open Play)Marius Bülter 90' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jovan Milosevic 91' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Eric Martel 92' — Saved Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 96' — Goal (0.12 xG, Open Play)
FC Cologne attacking right Werder Bremen attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
6' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.76 Right Foot Goal —
13' Werder Bremen Marco Grüll 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
20' Werder Bremen Senne Lynen 0.01 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot —
21' FC Cologne Jan Thielmann 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ragnar Ache
27' FC Cologne Jan Thielmann 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
28' FC Cologne Ragnar Ache 0.08 Open Play — Blocked Shot Jakub Kaminski
29' FC Cologne Jakub Kaminski 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
35' FC Cologne Cenk Özkacar 0.06 Set Piece — Missed Shot Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
35' FC Cologne Eric Martel 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Kristoffer Lund
35' FC Cologne Said El Mala 0.08 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
35' FC Cologne Sebastian Sebulonsen 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
37' FC Cologne Jan Thielmann 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ragnar Ache
40' FC Cologne Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Said El Mala
44' FC Cologne Jakub Kaminski 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jan Thielmann
45' FC Cologne Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Kristoffer Lund
47' FC Cologne Ragnar Ache 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Sebastian Sebulonsen
51' Werder Bremen Senne Lynen 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot —
61' FC Cologne Ragnar Ache 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Said El Mala
64' FC Cologne Cenk Özkacar 0.02 From Corner — Shot On Post Alessio Castro-Montes
64' FC Cologne Ragnar Ache 0.66 From Corner — Saved Shot —
64' FC Cologne Ragnar Ache 0.71 From Corner Left Foot Goal —
75' Werder Bremen Romano Schmid 0.76 Right Foot Goal —
76' FC Cologne Gian-Luca Waldschmidt 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
79' FC Cologne Jakub Kaminski 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Alessio Castro-Montes
82' FC Cologne Alessio Castro-Montes 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gian-Luca Waldschmidt
82' FC Cologne Sebastian Sebulonsen 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
86' Werder Bremen Justin Njinmah 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Karim Coulibaly
88' FC Cologne Gian-Luca Waldschmidt 0.54 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Linton Maina
90' FC Cologne Marius Bülter 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
91' Werder Bremen Jovan Milosevic 0.03 Open Play — Missed Shot Olivier Deman
92' FC Cologne Eric Martel 0.42 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Linton Maina
96' FC Cologne Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Goal Gian-Luca Waldschmidt

Players

Werder Bremen

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Romano Schmid AMC 90 1 0 1 0 0.76 0.00 0.03
Senne Lynen DMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Justin Njinmah FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Amos Pieper DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Olivier Deman DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Mio Backhaus GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Leonardo Bittencourt DMC 88 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Felix Agu AML 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marco Grüll AMR 50 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.00
Yukinari Sugawara DR 50 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Karim Coulibaly Sub 40 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.05
Salim Musah Sub 40 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marco Friedl DC 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Isaac Schmidt Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Jovan Milosevic Sub 2 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03

FC Cologne

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Eric Martel MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.47 0.00 1.28
Jakub Kaminski ML 90 0 0 3 1 0.25 0.08 0.33
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson MC 90 1 0 3 4 0.22 0.26 1.16
Sebastian Sebulonsen DR 90 0 0 2 1 0.08 0.04 0.31
Cenk Özkacar DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.33
Marvin Schwäbe GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.73
Ragnar Ache FW 80 1 0 5 2 1.61 0.12 0.43
Said El Mala FW 71 1 0 2 2 0.84 0.17 0.24
Jan Thielmann MR 71 0 0 3 1 0.14 0.13 0.35
Kristoffer Lund DL 50 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.28
Alessio Castro-Montes Sub 40 0 0 1 2 0.03 0.07 0.06
Marius Bülter Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.25
Linton Maina Sub 19 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.96 0.96
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub 10 0 1 2 2 0.57 0.15 0.72
Tom Krauß Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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