FC Cologne v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 14
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 11
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
1.19 – 0.80
Goals − xG
-0.62 – -0.23
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyFC Cologne win
52.0%
model 54.2%
Draw
24.0%
model 21.9%
Werder Bremen win
24.0%
model 23.9%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,554 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 9.9%
- 2-1 9.7%
- 1-0 8.0%
- 2-0 7.9%
- 3-1 6.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 61.9% | Under 2.5 | 38.1% |
| BTTS yes | 60.9% | BTTS no | 39.1% |
| FC Cologne 1+ | 85.9% | FC Cologne 2+ | 58.3% |
| Werder Bremen 1+ | 70.9% | Werder Bremen 2+ | 35.0% |
Expected goals 1.96 – 1.24. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
93/100
Data quality
90/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
FC Cologne (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 42%
51.8% fair odds 1.93
strong signal · 11512 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
FC Cologne or draw at HT
Double chance 1HT · usually 71%
83.8% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 975 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- FC Cologne have created 2.23 xG a match over their last five while Werder Bremen have allowed 2.14.
- At home FC Cologne average 2.50 xG a match.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
FC Cologne have an estimated 52.0% win probability, against 24.0% for Werder Bremen and 24.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.96 for FC Cologne and 1.24 for Werder Bremen.
Why FC Cologne
FC Cologne have created 2.23 xG a match over their last five while Werder Bremen have allowed 2.14. At home FC Cologne average 2.50 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 24.0%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Werder Bremen can win
Werder Bremen have created 0.93 xG a match over their last five while FC Cologne have allowed 1.94. Away from home Werder Bremen average 0.93 xG a match.
Key players
FC Cologne's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Said El Mala (0.47), Ragnar Ache (0.43), Jakub Kaminski (0.35). Werder Bremen's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Romano Schmid (0.44), Jens Stage (0.30), Niclas Füllkrug (0.28).
Availability
2 of FC Cologne's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of FC Cologne's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Werder Bremen's top three contributors did not start their last match. 55% of Werder Bremen's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
FC Cologne: 42% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.39 xG a match from set pieces. Werder Bremen: 45% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces. FC Cologne's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-12 15:20 · team_stats 2026-09-12 06:04 · availability 2026-09-12 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·
FC Cologne are the model's most likely outcome at 52.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.9%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.8 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLWLDLWLD last 10
scored 12
from 16.8 xG
conceded 21
from 17.2 xG
Werder Bremen have scored 16 from 14.5 expected and conceded 20 from 20.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLLLWDWDDW last 10
scored 16
from 14.5 xG
conceded 20
from 20.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.91–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 1.99–1.20 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 60% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.92–1.19 | 1-1 10% | 60% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to win | 57.4% | 53.6% | 41.6% | 1.29× | 1.86 |
| Draw | 21.5% | 24.6% | 24.8% | 0.99× | 4.07 |
| Werder Bremen to win | 21.1% | 24.6% | 33.7% | 0.73× | 4.07 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne & both teams score | 29.4% | 25.5% | 22.2% | 1.15× | 3.93 |
| FC Cologne & not both score | 27.9% | 25.5% | 19.6% | 1.30× | 3.93 |
| Draw & both teams score | 17.1% | 18.0% | 19.1% | 0.94× | 5.55 |
| Werder Bremen & both teams score | 11.9% | 13.3% | 18.4% | 0.72× | 7.55 |
| Werder Bremen & not both score | 9.2% | 8.4% | 15.5% | 0.54× | 11.96 |
| Draw & not both score | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 0.84× | 20.34 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne & over 1.5 | 48.6% | 44.8% | 35.4% | 1.26× | 2.23 |
| FC Cologne & over 2.5 | 39.8% | 34.7% | 29.4% | 1.18× | 2.88 |
| FC Cologne & under 3.5 | 33.3% | 31.0% | 21.5% | 1.44× | 3.22 |
| FC Cologne & over 3.5 | 24.1% | 21.6% | 20.3% | 1.07× | 4.63 |
| FC Cologne & under 2.5 | 17.6% | 18.0% | 12.3% | 1.46× | 5.57 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 17.1% | 18.0% | 19.1% | 0.94× | 5.57 |
| Werder Bremen & over 1.5 | 16.1% | 18.0% | 27.8% | 0.64× | 5.57 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 14.4% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 0.83× | 7.78 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 14.4% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 0.83× | 7.78 |
| Werder Bremen & under 3.5 | 14.5% | 12.9% | 19.8% | 0.65× | 7.78 |
| Werder Bremen & over 2.5 | 13.3% | 12.9% | 23.6% | 0.55× | 7.78 |
| FC Cologne & under 1.5 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 1.26× | 12.57 |
| Werder Bremen & under 2.5 | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 0.77× | 12.57 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 0.84× | 12.57 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 0.84× | 12.57 |
| Werder Bremen & over 3.5 | 6.7% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 0.56× | 12.57 |
| Werder Bremen & under 1.5 | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 0.81× | 20.57 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 0.83× | 20.57 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (1UP) | 71.5% | 75.7% | 59.6% | 1.27× | 1.32 |
| Werder Bremen (1UP) | 40.5% | 39.2% | 52.9% | 0.74× | 2.55 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (2UP) | 57.4% | 55.2% | 45.0% | 1.23× | 1.81 |
| Werder Bremen (2UP) | 21.1% | 23.5% | 36.6% | 0.64× | 4.25 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to win 2nd half | 48.4% | 45.5% | 37.1% | 1.23× | 2.20 |
| 2nd half drawn | 29.6% | 26.5% | 33.4% | 0.79× | 3.78 |
| Werder Bremen to win 2nd half | 22.0% | 23.1% | 29.6% | 0.78× | 4.34 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen under 1.5 in 2nd half | 83.0% | 84.3% | 79.2% | 1.06× | 1.19 |
| Werder Bremen over 0.5 in 2nd half | 52.3% | 53.3% | 56.6% | 0.94× | 1.88 |
| Werder Bremen under 0.5 in 2nd half | 47.7% | 46.7% | 43.4% | 1.08× | 2.14 |
| Werder Bremen over 1.5 in 2nd half | 17.0% | 15.7% | 20.8% | 0.76× | 6.36 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne over 0.5 in 2nd half | 71.3% | 73.6% | 62.1% | 1.18× | 1.36 |
| FC Cologne under 1.5 in 2nd half | 64.5% | 62.7% | 74.8% | 0.84× | 1.60 |
| FC Cologne over 1.5 in 2nd half | 35.5% | 37.3% | 25.2% | 1.48× | 2.68 |
| FC Cologne under 0.5 in 2nd half | 28.7% | 26.4% | 37.9% | 0.70× | 3.79 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen (+2.5) | 83.3% | 82.6% | 88.3% | 0.94× | 1.21 |
| FC Cologne (+0.5) | 78.9% | 78.4% | 66.3% | 1.18× | 1.28 |
| Werder Bremen (+1.5) | 65.8% | 68.7% | 75.3% | 0.91× | 1.46 |
| FC Cologne (-0.5) | 57.4% | 57.0% | 41.6% | 1.37× | 1.76 |
| Werder Bremen (+0.5) | 42.6% | 43.0% | 58.4% | 0.74× | 2.32 |
| FC Cologne (-1.5) | 34.2% | 31.3% | 24.7% | 1.27× | 3.19 |
| Werder Bremen (-0.5) | 21.1% | 21.6% | 33.7% | 0.64× | 4.62 |
| FC Cologne (-2.5) | 16.7% | 17.4% | 11.7% | 1.49× | 5.75 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen to concede | 86.3% | 86.2% | 78.8% | 1.09× | 1.16 |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 13.7% | 13.8% | 21.2% | 0.65× | 7.26 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen clean sheet in 1st half | 47.7% | 50.7% | 48.2% | 1.05× | 1.97 |
| Werder Bremen to concede in 1st half | 52.3% | 49.3% | 51.8% | 0.95× | 2.03 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen to concede in 2nd half | 71.3% | 70.1% | 62.1% | 1.13× | 1.43 |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet in 2nd half | 28.7% | 29.9% | 37.9% | 0.79× | 3.35 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen under 6.5 corners | 83.9% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Werder Bremen under 5.5 corners | 74.2% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Werder Bremen over 2.5 corners | 72.0% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Werder Bremen under 4.5 corners | 61.1% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Werder Bremen over 3.5 corners | 54.9% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Werder Bremen under 3.5 corners | 45.1% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Werder Bremen over 4.5 corners | 38.9% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Werder Bremen under 2.5 corners | 28.1% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.52 |
| Werder Bremen over 5.5 corners | 25.8% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.52 |
| Werder Bremen over 6.5 corners | 16.1% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.38 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen under 3.5 goals | 97.2% | 97.4% | 92.6% | 1.05× | 1.03 |
| Werder Bremen under 2.5 goals | 89.5% | 87.9% | 79.0% | 1.11× | 1.14 |
| Werder Bremen under 1.5 goals | 68.9% | 67.9% | 57.1% | 1.19× | 1.47 |
| Werder Bremen over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | 67.9% | 74.7% | 0.91× | 1.47 |
| Werder Bremen under 0.5 goals | 32.4% | 32.1% | 25.3% | 1.27× | 3.11 |
| Werder Bremen over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 32.1% | 42.9% | 0.75× | 3.11 |
| Werder Bremen over 2.5 goals | 10.5% | 12.1% | 21.0% | 0.57× | 8.27 |
| Werder Bremen over 3.5 goals | 2.8% | 2.6% | 7.4% | 0.35× | 38.86 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen under 1.5 in 1st half | 94.1% | 94.2% | 85.7% | 1.10× | 1.06 |
| Werder Bremen under 0.5 in 1st half | 67.8% | 68.6% | 54.4% | 1.26× | 1.46 |
| Werder Bremen over 0.5 in 1st half | 32.2% | 31.4% | 45.6% | 0.69× | 3.18 |
| Werder Bremen over 1.5 in 1st half | 5.9% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 0.40× | 17.36 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen scores equally in both | 42.4% | 43.8% | 38.8% | 1.13× | 2.28 |
| Werder Bremen scores more in 2nd half | 40.1% | 43.7% | 36.9% | 1.18× | 2.29 |
| Werder Bremen scores more in 1st half | 17.5% | 17.9% | 24.4% | 0.73× | 5.59 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (away no bet) | 72.7% | 68.5% | 62.6% | 1.09× | 1.46 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 27.3% | 31.5% | 37.4% | 0.84× | 3.17 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen even goals | 55.2% | 56.8% | 53.2% | 1.07× | 1.76 |
| Werder Bremen odd goals | 44.8% | 43.2% | 46.8% | 0.92× | 2.32 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 81.6% | 82.9% | 75.8% | 1.09× | 1.21 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 18.4% | 17.1% | 24.2% | 0.70× | 5.86 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 71.9% | 67.3% | 72.3% | 0.93× | 1.49 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 32.7% | 27.7% | 1.18× | 3.06 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 64.1% | 60.0% | 66.9% | 0.90× | 1.67 |
| FC Cologne to score 2+ in a row | 50.5% | 51.2% | 42.3% | 1.21× | 1.95 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 27.1% | 25.0% | 29.5% | 0.85× | 3.99 |
| FC Cologne to score 3+ in a row | 22.5% | 19.5% | 17.6% | 1.11× | 5.13 |
| Werder Bremen to score 2+ in a row | 21.4% | 19.5% | 34.7% | 0.56× | 5.14 |
| Werder Bremen to score 3+ in a row | 5.1% | 5.6% | 12.8% | 0.43× | 17.93 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne corners (+3.5) | 91.8% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| FC Cologne corners (+2.5) | 87.1% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| FC Cologne corners (+1.5) | 80.8% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Werder Bremen corners (+3.5) | 67.0% | 65.8% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Werder Bremen corners (+2.5) | 57.4% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| FC Cologne corners (-1.5) | 52.9% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Werder Bremen corners (+1.5) | 47.1% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.10 |
| FC Cologne corners (-2.5) | 42.6% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| FC Cologne corners (-3.5) | 33.0% | 34.2% | — | — | 2.93 |
| Werder Bremen corners (-1.5) | 19.2% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.95 |
| Werder Bremen corners (-2.5) | 12.9% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.44 |
| Werder Bremen corners (-3.5) | 8.2% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.58 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 37.1% | 34.0% | — | — | 2.94 |
| 12+ corners | 34.0% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| 9-11 corners | 29.0% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 73.9% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 72.7% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 66.0% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 62.9% | 63.3% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 57.0% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52.8% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 47.2% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 43.0% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 37.1% | 36.7% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 34.0% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.10 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 27.3% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 26.1% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 1.17× | 13.53 |
| 1-1 | 9.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 0.75× | 13.52 |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 1.20× | 13.53 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 1.09× | 13.52 |
| 3-1 | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 1.20× | 13.53 |
| 1-2 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 1.09× | 13.53 |
| 2-2 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 1.17× | 13.53 |
| 3-0 | 5.8% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 2.75× | 13.53 |
| Any other score | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 1.37× | 13.53 |
| 0-1 | 5.0% | 1.7% | 6.0% | 0.29× | 57.65 |
| 0-0 | 4.4% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 0.30× | 57.66 |
| 0-2 | 2.8% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 0.39× | 57.67 |
| 0-3 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.58× | 57.67 |
| 0-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.10× | 57.68 |
| 1-3 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 0.38× | 57.67 |
| 1-4 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.00× | 57.68 |
| 2-3 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.64× | 57.67 |
| 2-4 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.57× | 57.68 |
| 3-2 | 3.7% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.50× | 57.66 |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.58× | 57.67 |
| 3-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.22× | 57.68 |
| 4-0 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 0.48× | 57.66 |
| 4-1 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.78× | 57.66 |
| 4-2 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.57× | 57.67 |
| 4-3 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.83× | 57.68 |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.65× | 57.68 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (2nd half DNB) | 68.8% | 70.0% | 55.6% | 1.26× | 1.43 |
| Werder Bremen (2nd half DNB) | 31.2% | 30.0% | 44.4% | 0.67× | 3.34 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne leading at HT (DNB) | 69.6% | 73.8% | 55.5% | 1.33× | 1.36 |
| Werder Bremen leading at HT (DNB) | 30.4% | 26.2% | 44.5% | 0.59× | 3.81 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne or draw (1X) | 78.9% | 75.4% | 66.3% | 1.14× | 1.33 |
| FC Cologne or Werder Bremen (12) | 78.5% | 75.4% | 75.2% | 1.00× | 1.33 |
| Werder Bremen or draw (X2) | 42.6% | 46.4% | 58.4% | 0.79× | 2.16 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne or draw at HT | 82.5% | 84.4% | 70.7% | 1.19× | 1.18 |
| Werder Bremen or draw at HT | 59.8% | 57.0% | 63.4% | 0.90× | 1.75 |
| FC Cologne or Werder Bremen at HT | 57.7% | 57.0% | 65.8% | 0.87× | 1.76 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne or draw (1UP) | 78.9% | 84.1% | 73.5% | 1.14× | 1.19 |
| Werder Bremen or draw (1UP) | 42.6% | 52.7% | 65.1% | 0.81× | 1.90 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne or draw in 2nd half | 78.0% | 76.9% | 70.4% | 1.09× | 1.30 |
| FC Cologne or Werder Bremen in 2nd half | 70.4% | 73.5% | 66.6% | 1.10× | 1.36 |
| Werder Bremen or draw in 2nd half | 51.6% | 54.5% | 62.9% | 0.87× | 1.84 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 59.4% | 58.1% | 53.7% | 1.08× | 1.72 |
| Neither half drawn | 40.6% | 41.9% | 46.3% | 0.91× | 2.39 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (DNB) | 73.1% | 71.1% | 55.3% | 1.29× | 1.41 |
| Werder Bremen (DNB) | 26.9% | 28.9% | 44.7% | 0.65× | 3.46 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to score first | 61.0% | 64.4% | 50.7% | 1.27× | 1.55 |
| Werder Bremen to score first | 34.6% | 27.4% | 43.6% | 0.63× | 3.65 |
| No goal scored | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 0.73× | 23.22 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 54.8% | 59.3% | 0.92× | 1.83 |
| Not both teams to score | 41.6% | 45.2% | 40.7% | 1.11× | 2.21 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 48.5% | 44.2% | 49.7% | 0.89× | 2.26 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 29.8% | 33.4% | 28.2% | 1.18× | 3.00 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 11.8% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 0.97× | 8.16 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 9.9% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 0.85× | 11.93 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 81.6% | 82.5% | 79.7% | 1.03× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 18.4% | 17.5% | 20.3% | 0.86× | 5.71 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 62.7% | 66.0% | 65.6% | 1.01× | 1.52 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 37.3% | 34.0% | 34.4% | 0.99× | 2.94 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 52.1% | 55.9% | 51.7% | 1.08× | 1.79 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 31.0% | 26.3% | 27.7% | 0.95× | 3.80 |
| Both score 1st half only | 10.6% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 0.76× | 9.36 |
| Both score in both halves | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 0.99× | 14.83 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 83.1% | 82.5% | 79.2% | 1.04× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 16.9% | 17.5% | 20.8% | 0.84× | 5.71 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 58.4% | 57.4% | 66.9% | 0.86× | 1.74 |
| A half without a goal | 41.6% | 42.6% | 33.1% | 1.29× | 2.35 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 43.9% | 41.9% | 38.8% | 1.08× | 2.39 |
| 4-6 goals | 34.0% | 30.9% | 39.9% | 0.78× | 3.24 |
| 0-1 goals | 18.2% | 20.2% | 17.9% | 1.13× | 4.95 |
| 7+ goals | 4.0% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 0.49× | 53.83 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen to score exactly 1 | 36.5% | 35.8% | 32.0% | 1.12× | 2.80 |
| Werder Bremen to score exactly 0 | 32.4% | 33.7% | 25.3% | 1.33× | 2.97 |
| Werder Bremen to score exactly 2 | 20.6% | 22.5% | 22.0% | 1.02× | 4.45 |
| Werder Bremen to score 3+ | 10.5% | 13.0% | 21.0% | 0.62× | 7.71 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to score 3+ | 32.1% | 32.6% | 27.4% | 1.19× | 3.06 |
| FC Cologne to score exactly 1 | 27.2% | 26.2% | 29.1% | 0.90× | 3.82 |
| FC Cologne to score exactly 2 | 27.1% | 26.2% | 22.6% | 1.16× | 3.82 |
| FC Cologne to score exactly 0 | 13.7% | 14.3% | 21.2% | 0.67× | 6.99 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 42.3% | 43.0% | 34.2% | 1.26× | 2.32 |
| FC Cologne leading at HT | 40.2% | 43.0% | 36.6% | 1.17× | 2.33 |
| Werder Bremen leading at HT | 17.5% | 15.6% | 29.3% | 0.53× | 6.42 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne -1: 2 | 42.6% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| FC Cologne -1: 1 | 34.2% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| FC Cologne -1: X | 23.2% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.23 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen (0:1) | 42.6% | 42.5% | 58.4% | 0.73× | 2.35 |
| FC Cologne (0:1) | 34.2% | 29.4% | 24.7% | 1.19× | 3.40 |
| Draw (0:1) | 23.2% | 24.4% | 17.1% | 1.43× | 4.10 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen (0:2) | 65.8% | 72.5% | 75.3% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| Draw (0:2) | 17.5% | 15.0% | 13.1% | 1.14× | 6.67 |
| FC Cologne (0:2) | 16.7% | 15.0% | 11.7% | 1.28× | 6.67 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen (0:3) | 83.3% | 85.3% | 88.3% | 0.97× | 1.17 |
| Draw (0:3) | 9.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 1.17× | 16.89 |
| FC Cologne (0:3) | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 0.87× | 16.93 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen (0:4) | 93.2% | 94.4% | 93.2% | 1.01× | 1.06 |
| Draw (0:4) | 4.5% | 1.2% | 5.2% | 0.24× | 81.37 |
| FC Cologne (0:4) | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.70× | 81.59 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (1:0) | 78.9% | 78.1% | 66.3% | 1.18× | 1.28 |
| Draw (1:0) | 13.1% | 12.8% | 16.5% | 0.78× | 7.84 |
| Werder Bremen (1:0) | 8.0% | 7.0% | 17.4% | 0.40× | 14.31 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne (2:0) | 92.0% | 93.8% | 82.6% | 1.14× | 1.07 |
| Draw (2:0) | 5.6% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 0.66× | 15.28 |
| Werder Bremen (2:0) | 2.4% | 2.4% | 7.6% | 0.32× | 41.43 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 57.3% | 58.5% | 46.9% | 1.25× | 1.71 |
| Halves equal | 21.6% | 24.1% | 26.9% | 0.89× | 4.16 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 21.2% | 24.0% | 26.3% | 0.91× | 4.16 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to concede | 67.6% | 66.6% | 74.7% | 0.89× | 1.50 |
| FC Cologne clean sheet | 32.4% | 33.4% | 25.3% | 1.32× | 2.99 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne clean sheet in 1st half | 67.8% | 68.9% | 54.4% | 1.27× | 1.45 |
| FC Cologne to concede in 1st half | 32.2% | 31.1% | 45.6% | 0.68× | 3.21 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to concede in 2nd half | 52.3% | 53.2% | 56.6% | 0.94× | 1.88 |
| FC Cologne clean sheet in 2nd half | 47.7% | 46.8% | 43.4% | 1.08× | 2.14 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne over 2.5 corners | 88.0% | 86.3% | — | — | 1.16 |
| FC Cologne over 3.5 corners | 77.4% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| FC Cologne over 4.5 corners | 64.7% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| FC Cologne under 6.5 corners | 60.6% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| FC Cologne over 5.5 corners | 51.6% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| FC Cologne under 5.5 corners | 48.4% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| FC Cologne over 6.5 corners | 39.4% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| FC Cologne under 4.5 corners | 35.3% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| FC Cologne under 3.5 corners | 22.6% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| FC Cologne under 2.5 corners | 12.0% | 13.7% | — | — | 7.29 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne over 0.5 goals | 86.3% | 87.2% | 78.8% | 1.11× | 1.15 |
| FC Cologne under 3.5 goals | 85.9% | 87.2% | 88.6% | 0.98× | 1.15 |
| FC Cologne under 2.5 goals | 67.9% | 67.9% | 72.6% | 0.93× | 1.47 |
| FC Cologne over 1.5 goals | 59.1% | 58.6% | 49.8% | 1.18× | 1.71 |
| FC Cologne under 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 41.4% | 50.2% | 0.83× | 2.42 |
| FC Cologne over 2.5 goals | 32.1% | 32.1% | 27.4% | 1.17× | 3.11 |
| FC Cologne over 3.5 goals | 14.1% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 1.12× | 7.82 |
| FC Cologne under 0.5 goals | 13.7% | 12.8% | 21.2% | 0.60× | 7.82 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne under 1.5 in 1st half | 83.0% | 84.3% | 80.8% | 1.04× | 1.19 |
| FC Cologne under 0.5 in 1st half | 47.7% | 50.9% | 48.2% | 1.06× | 1.97 |
| FC Cologne over 0.5 in 1st half | 52.3% | 49.1% | 51.8% | 0.95× | 2.04 |
| FC Cologne over 1.5 in 1st half | 17.0% | 15.7% | 19.2% | 0.82× | 6.35 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne scores more in 2nd half | 48.4% | 47.1% | 37.7% | 1.25× | 2.12 |
| FC Cologne scores equally in both | 29.6% | 28.1% | 36.8% | 0.76× | 3.56 |
| FC Cologne scores more in 1st half | 22.1% | 21.5% | 25.7% | 0.84× | 4.65 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 50.5% | 51.5% | 42.4% | 1.21× | 1.94 |
| Werder Bremen (home no bet) | 49.5% | 48.5% | 57.6% | 0.84× | 2.06 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne even goals | 50.9% | 50.4% | 52.5% | 0.96× | 1.98 |
| FC Cologne odd goals | 49.1% | 49.6% | 47.5% | 1.05× | 2.02 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 32.3% | 32.3% | 23.3% | 1.38× | 3.10 |
| HT 1-0 | 23.9% | 24.2% | 19.3% | 1.25× | 4.13 |
| HT 0-1 | 12.6% | 10.9% | 16.5% | 0.66× | 9.15 |
| HT 1-1 | 9.3% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 0.73× | 13.99 |
| HT 2-0 | 8.9% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 0.75× | 14.00 |
| Any other HT score | 4.6% | 2.3% | 6.7% | 0.35× | 43.36 |
| HT 2-1 | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 0.54× | 43.45 |
| HT 0-2 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 7.1% | 0.32× | 43.52 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 0.66× | 43.57 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.81× | 43.66 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne at HT / FC Cologne at FT | 33.5% | 32.9% | 28.1% | 1.17× | 3.04 |
| Draw at HT / FC Cologne at FT | 20.5% | 21.7% | 10.6% | 2.04× | 4.61 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 12.5% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 0.91× | 7.90 |
| Werder Bremen at HT / Werder Bremen at FT | 9.9% | 6.0% | 20.3% | 0.30× | 16.59 |
| Draw at HT / Werder Bremen at FT | 9.3% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 0.60× | 16.61 |
| FC Cologne at HT / Draw at FT | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 0.69× | 28.73 |
| Werder Bremen at HT / Draw at FT | 4.2% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 0.58× | 28.76 |
| Werder Bremen at HT / FC Cologne at FT | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.04× | 28.79 |
| FC Cologne at HT / Werder Bremen at FT | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 0.91× | 28.85 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to score last | 61.0% | 61.9% | 49.8% | 1.24× | 1.62 |
| Werder Bremen to score last | 34.6% | 33.1% | 44.5% | 0.74× | 3.02 |
| No goal scored | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 0.73× | 23.22 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 95.6% | 95.6% | 94.1% | 1.02× | 1.05 |
| FC Cologne to lead by 1 at any time | 71.5% | 74.1% | 59.6% | 1.24× | 1.35 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 54.6% | 50.8% | 55.9% | 0.91× | 1.97 |
| FC Cologne to lead by 2 at any time | 41.6% | 39.2% | 33.1% | 1.18× | 2.55 |
| Werder Bremen to lead by 1 at any time | 40.5% | 39.2% | 52.9% | 0.74× | 2.55 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 23.5% | 19.6% | 25.7% | 0.76× | 5.10 |
| FC Cologne to lead by 3 at any time | 19.9% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 0.96× | 6.70 |
| Werder Bremen to lead by 2 at any time | 13.4% | 10.5% | 23.6% | 0.44× | 9.54 |
| Werder Bremen to lead by 3 at any time | 3.6% | 1.6% | 10.3% | 0.16× | 60.81 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne most corners | 63.2% | 60.5% | — | — | 1.65 |
| Werder Bremen most corners | 27.3% | 31.1% | — | — | 3.22 |
| Corners level | 9.5% | 8.4% | — | — | 11.90 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 86.0% | 87.4% | 83.2% | 1.05× | 1.14 |
| 2-6 goals | 77.8% | 78.5% | 78.5% | 1.00× | 1.27 |
| 1-4 goals | 75.1% | 78.5% | 72.3% | 1.09× | 1.27 |
| 2-5 goals | 72.2% | 72.3% | 71.2% | 1.02× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.3% | 63.2% | 60.3% | 1.05× | 1.58 |
| 1-3 goals | 57.7% | 59.3% | 50.8% | 1.17× | 1.69 |
| 3-6 goals | 56.3% | 59.3% | 58.5% | 1.01× | 1.69 |
| 3-5 goals | 50.7% | 53.4% | 51.3% | 1.04× | 1.87 |
| 2-3 goals | 43.9% | 43.6% | 38.8% | 1.12× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 39.8% | 39.3% | 40.3% | 0.97× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 35.3% | 39.3% | 32.1% | 1.22× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 34.0% | 35.3% | 39.9% | 0.89× | 2.83 |
| 4-5 goals | 28.3% | 30.6% | 32.6% | 0.94× | 3.27 |
| 5-6 goals | 16.5% | 18.8% | 18.4% | 1.03× | 5.31 |
| 7+ goals | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 0.68× | 38.90 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne never behind | 55.1% | 62.4% | 47.1% | 1.33× | 1.60 |
| Werder Bremen never behind | 24.1% | 24.5% | 40.4% | 0.61× | 4.08 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 51.0% | 44.8% | 1.14× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.0% | 55.2% | 0.89× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 55.2% | 57.4% | 52.6% | 1.09× | 1.74 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 44.8% | 42.6% | 47.4% | 0.90× | 2.35 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 50.9% | 52.0% | 52.9% | 0.98× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 49.1% | 48.0% | 47.1% | 1.02× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 95.6% | 95.4% | 94.1% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 90.4% | 92.2% | 88.9% | 1.04× | 1.09 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | 82.2% | 82.1% | 1.00× | 1.22 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 79.5% | 77.2% | 78.0% | 0.99× | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62.1% | 62.0% | 56.5% | 1.10× | 1.61 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | 61.9% | 62.2% | 1.00× | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.7% | 38.1% | 37.8% | 1.01× | 2.63 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.9% | 38.0% | 43.5% | 0.87× | 2.63 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20.5% | 22.8% | 22.0% | 1.04× | 4.39 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.2% | 17.8% | 17.9% | 1.00× | 5.61 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 9.6% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 0.70× | 12.83 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 0.79× | 21.74 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 95.8% | 97.2% | 95.9% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 89.2% | 86.6% | 87.6% | 0.99× | 1.15 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 76.8% | 75.9% | 77.7% | 0.98× | 1.32 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 75.2% | 75.9% | 72.0% | 1.05× | 1.32 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 51.2% | 52.3% | 46.5% | 1.13× | 1.91 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 48.8% | 47.7% | 53.5% | 0.89× | 2.10 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 24.8% | 24.1% | 28.0% | 0.86× | 4.14 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 23.2% | 24.1% | 22.3% | 1.08× | 4.15 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 10.8% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 1.08× | 7.48 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 0.70× | 35.09 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 89.4% | 89.1% | 84.8% | 1.05× | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 68.8% | 69.1% | 58.8% | 1.18× | 1.45 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 67.7% | 69.1% | 76.7% | 0.90× | 1.45 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 32.3% | 30.9% | 23.3% | 1.33× | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 31.2% | 30.9% | 41.2% | 0.75× | 3.24 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 10.6% | 10.9% | 15.2% | 0.72× | 9.15 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 86.3% | 85.3% | 84.3% | 1.01× | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 68.0% | 67.5% | 73.4% | 0.92× | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 59.1% | 54.8% | 55.3% | 0.99× | 1.82 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 40.9% | 45.2% | 44.7% | 1.01× | 2.21 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 32.0% | 32.5% | 26.6% | 1.22× | 3.08 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 13.7% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 0.93× | 6.82 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen not to score in both halves | 83.2% | 84.4% | 72.4% | 1.17× | 1.19 |
| FC Cologne not to score in both halves | 62.7% | 63.4% | 64.8% | 0.98× | 1.58 |
| FC Cologne to score in both halves | 37.3% | 36.6% | 35.2% | 1.04× | 2.74 |
| Werder Bremen to score in both halves | 16.8% | 15.6% | 27.6% | 0.57× | 6.41 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 58.4% | 58.7% | 59.3% | 0.99× | 1.70 |
| Only FC Cologne scores | 27.9% | 26.1% | 19.6% | 1.33× | 3.83 |
| Only Werder Bremen scores | 9.2% | 7.1% | 15.5% | 0.46× | 14.03 |
| Neither team scores | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 0.79× | 21.59 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.4% | 22.4% | 18.8% | 1.19× | 4.46 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 21.5% | 22.4% | 20.1% | 1.12× | 4.46 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 17.4% | 17.5% | 21.7% | 0.81× | 5.70 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 13.8% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 0.99× | 8.30 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 10.9% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 1.09× | 8.30 |
| 6 or more goals | 9.6% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 0.70× | 12.85 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 0.77× | 22.22 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 36.5% | 37.1% | 35.7% | 1.04× | 2.70 |
| No goals in 1st half | 32.3% | 35.9% | 23.3% | 1.54× | 2.79 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 20.6% | 21.7% | 26.1% | 0.83× | 4.61 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 10.6% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 0.71× | 9.24 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 59.1% | 53.5% | 55.3% | 0.97× | 1.87 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 27.2% | 29.8% | 29.2% | 1.02× | 3.36 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 13.7% | 14.5% | 15.7% | 0.92× | 6.89 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen not to win both halves | 96.1% | 97.2% | 90.5% | 1.07× | 1.03 |
| FC Cologne not to win both halves | 80.5% | 84.1% | 84.2% | 1.00× | 1.19 |
| FC Cologne to win both halves | 19.5% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 1.01× | 6.28 |
| Werder Bremen to win both halves | 3.9% | 2.8% | 9.5% | 0.30× | 35.62 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne to win either half | 69.2% | 68.1% | 57.8% | 1.18× | 1.47 |
| Werder Bremen to win neither half | 64.3% | 65.1% | 50.6% | 1.29× | 1.54 |
| Werder Bremen to win either half | 35.7% | 34.9% | 49.4% | 0.71× | 2.87 |
| FC Cologne to win neither half | 30.8% | 31.9% | 42.2% | 0.76× | 3.14 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen not to win to nil | 90.8% | 92.1% | 84.5% | 1.09× | 1.09 |
| FC Cologne not to win to nil | 72.1% | 75.2% | 80.4% | 0.94× | 1.33 |
| FC Cologne to win to nil | 27.9% | 24.8% | 19.6% | 1.27× | 4.03 |
| Werder Bremen to win to nil | 9.2% | 7.9% | 15.5% | 0.51× | 12.62 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne by 1 | 23.2% | 24.2% | 17.1% | 1.41× | 4.14 |
| Draw | 21.5% | 24.2% | 24.8% | 0.97× | 4.14 |
| FC Cologne by 2 | 17.5% | 16.9% | 13.1% | 1.29× | 5.92 |
| FC Cologne by 3+ | 16.7% | 16.9% | 11.7% | 1.44× | 5.92 |
| Werder Bremen by 1 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 16.5% | 0.71× | 8.53 |
| Werder Bremen by 2 | 5.6% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 0.73× | 13.77 |
| Werder Bremen by 3+ | 2.4% | 2.8% | 7.6% | 0.37× | 35.61 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Cologne 1.62 xGWerder Bremen 1.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Cologne attacking right
Werder Bremen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Werder Bremen |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Arthur |
| 5' |
 FC Cologne |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ellyes Skhiri |
| 7' |
FC Cologne |
Ellyes Skhiri | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
FC Cologne |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 10' |
FC Cologne |
Linton Maina | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ellyes Skhiri |
| 12' |
FC Cologne |
Tom Krauß | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Linton Maina |
| 13' |
FC Cologne |
Mikey Moore | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Werder Bremen |
Chuki | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Werder Bremen |
Eren Sami Dinkci | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 24' |
FC Cologne |
Mikey Moore | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alessio Castro-Montes |
| 36' |
Werder Bremen |
Amos Pieper | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Youri Regeer |
| 42' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Friedl | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Chuki |
| 45' |
Werder Bremen |
Chuki | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Werder Bremen |
Olivier Deman | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marco Grüll |
| 52' |
Werder Bremen |
Chuki | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Youri Regeer |
| 56' |
FC Cologne |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.12 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 57' |
Werder Bremen |
Eren Sami Dinkci | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 61' |
Werder Bremen |
Olivier Deman | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
FC Cologne |
Mikey Moore | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 63' |
FC Cologne |
Gideon Mensah | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Werder Bremen |
Amos Pieper | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Chuki |
| 68' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 68' |
Werder Bremen |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.51 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 72' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.12 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
FC Cologne |
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 84' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Said El Mala |
| 86' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ellyes Skhiri |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Grüll AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| Chuki AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Olivier Deman DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Karl Hein GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci AMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Youri Regeer DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Niclas Füllkrug FW | 83 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| Arthur DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Ludovit Reis DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Dariusz Stalmach Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mick Schmetgens Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cedric Itten Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mitchell Weiser Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Erevbenagie Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marius Bülter AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| Tom Krauß DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| Ellyes Skhiri DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jahmai Simpson-Pusey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luka Lochoshvili DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikey Moore AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Linton Maina AMR | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Alessio Castro-Montes DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Thijs Dallinga FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ragnar Ache Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Said El Mala Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Paul Okon-Engstler Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |