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FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
FC Dallas win
47.1%
model 47.8%
Draw
26.5%
model 25.5%
Colorado Rapids win
26.5%
model 26.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.1%
  2. 2-1 9.5%
  3. 1-0 9.1%
  4. 2-0 8.0%
  5. 1-2 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.553.9% Under 2.546.1%
BTTS yes56.6% BTTS no43.4%
FC Dallas 1+80.9% FC Dallas 2+49.2%
Colorado Rapids 1+69.3% Colorado Rapids 2+33.0%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
59/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
1-3 goals
Multi goal · usually 57%
62.1% fair odds 1.61
moderate signal · 3852 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
FC Dallas over 0.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 82%
82.6% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1431 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • FC Dallas carry the stronger rating, 1572 Elo against 1476.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Dallas have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 26.5% for Colorado Rapids and 26.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.65 for FC Dallas and 1.18 for Colorado Rapids.

Why FC Dallas

FC Dallas carry the stronger rating, 1572 Elo against 1476. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Colorado Rapids can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Dallas, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Colorado Rapids, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Dallas: 42% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Colorado Rapids: 58% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 7.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

FC Dallas are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 59/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.65–1.18 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.78–1.15 1-1 12% 56% 57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to win 51.5% 51.4% 45.3% 1.14× 1.94
Draw 24.5% 24.5% 24.8% 0.99× 4.09
Colorado Rapids to win 24.1% 24.5% 30.0% 0.82× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas & both teams score 25.8% 25.2% 24.4% 1.03× 3.98
FC Dallas & not both score 25.6% 25.1% 21.1% 1.19× 3.98
Draw & both teams score 18.6% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
Colorado Rapids & both teams score 13.1% 13.3% 18.0% 0.74× 7.54
Colorado Rapids & not both score 11.0% 13.3% 12.1% 1.10× 7.54
Draw & not both score 5.9% 8.3% 5.8% 1.45× 12.02
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas & over 1.5 42.6% 40.2% 37.2% 1.08× 2.49
FC Dallas & over 2.5 34.1% 30.8% 31.0% 0.99× 3.25
FC Dallas & under 3.5 32.0% 30.7% 28.4% 1.08× 3.25
FC Dallas & over 3.5 19.4% 18.0% 17.0% 1.06× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 18.6% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
Colorado Rapids & over 1.5 18.5% 18.0% 23.7% 0.76× 5.56
FC Dallas & under 2.5 17.3% 18.0% 14.4% 1.25× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 17.4% 18.0% 16.0% 1.12× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 17.4% 18.0% 16.0% 1.12× 5.56
Colorado Rapids & under 3.5 16.8% 18.0% 18.8% 0.96× 5.56
Colorado Rapids & over 2.5 15.0% 12.8% 20.5% 0.63× 7.79
FC Dallas & under 1.5 8.9% 7.9% 8.2% 0.96× 12.63
Colorado Rapids & under 2.5 9.1% 7.9% 9.6% 0.83× 12.63
Colorado Rapids & over 3.5 7.3% 7.9% 11.3% 0.70× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 5.9% 7.9% 5.8% 1.38× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 7.1% 7.9% 8.9% 0.89× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 7.1% 7.9% 8.9% 0.89× 12.63
Colorado Rapids & under 1.5 5.6% 7.9% 6.4% 1.23× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (1UP) 66.6% 70.1% — — 1.43
Colorado Rapids (1UP) 43.1% 38.7% — — 2.58
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (2UP) 51.5% 54.9% — — 1.82
Colorado Rapids (2UP) 24.1% 23.8% — — 4.20
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to win 2nd half 42.1% 41.8% — — 2.39
2nd half drawn 33.7% 34.1% — — 2.93
Colorado Rapids to win 2nd half 24.2% 24.2% — — 4.13
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids under 1.5 in 2nd half 84.7% 84.4% — — 1.19
Colorado Rapids under 0.5 in 2nd half 50.0% 52.6% — — 1.90
Colorado Rapids over 0.5 in 2nd half 50.0% 47.4% — — 2.11
Colorado Rapids over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.3% 15.6% — — 6.40
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas under 1.5 in 2nd half 73.0% 74.4% — — 1.35
FC Dallas over 0.5 in 2nd half 63.7% 62.9% — — 1.59
FC Dallas under 0.5 in 2nd half 36.3% 37.1% — — 2.70
FC Dallas over 1.5 in 2nd half 27.0% 25.6% — — 3.90
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (+2.5) 87.0% 88.5% 89.4% 0.99× 1.13
FC Dallas (+0.5) 75.9% 78.5% 70.0% 1.12× 1.27
Colorado Rapids (+1.5) 71.1% 73.6% 76.8% 0.96× 1.36
FC Dallas (-0.5) 51.5% 52.4% 45.3% 1.16× 1.91
Colorado Rapids (+0.5) 48.5% 47.6% 54.7% 0.87× 2.10
FC Dallas (-1.5) 28.9% 26.4% 23.2% 1.14× 3.79
Colorado Rapids (-0.5) 24.1% 21.5% 30.0% 0.72× 4.65
FC Dallas (-2.5) 13.0% 11.5% 10.6% 1.09× 8.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to concede 83.1% 81.5% 82.3% 0.99× 1.23
Colorado Rapids clean sheet 16.9% 18.5% 17.7% 1.04× 5.42
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to concede in 1st half 53.5% 50.6% — — 1.98
Colorado Rapids clean sheet in 1st half 46.5% 49.4% — — 2.02
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to concede in 2nd half 63.7% 61.4% — — 1.63
Colorado Rapids clean sheet in 2nd half 36.3% 38.6% — — 2.59
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids over 2.5 corners 84.1% 81.4% — — 1.23
Colorado Rapids over 3.5 corners 71.3% 71.6% — — 1.40
Colorado Rapids under 6.5 corners 69.1% 67.6% — — 1.48
Colorado Rapids over 4.5 corners 57.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Colorado Rapids under 5.5 corners 57.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Colorado Rapids under 4.5 corners 43.0% 42.8% — — 2.33
Colorado Rapids over 5.5 corners 43.0% 42.8% — — 2.33
Colorado Rapids over 6.5 corners 30.9% 32.4% — — 3.09
Colorado Rapids under 3.5 corners 28.7% 28.4% — — 3.52
Colorado Rapids under 2.5 corners 15.9% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids under 3.5 goals 97.0% 97.5% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Colorado Rapids under 2.5 goals 88.9% 87.8% 83.3% 1.05× 1.14
Colorado Rapids over 0.5 goals 68.5% 68.0% 73.3% 0.93× 1.47
Colorado Rapids under 1.5 goals 67.9% 68.0% 61.2% 1.11× 1.47
Colorado Rapids over 1.5 goals 32.1% 32.0% 38.8% 0.82× 3.13
Colorado Rapids under 0.5 goals 31.5% 32.0% 26.7% 1.20× 3.13
Colorado Rapids over 2.5 goals 11.1% 12.2% 16.7% 0.73× 8.21
Colorado Rapids over 3.5 goals 3.0% 2.5% 6.0% 0.42× 39.91
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids under 1.5 in 1st half 92.1% 93.8% — — 1.07
Colorado Rapids under 0.5 in 1st half 63.0% 63.4% — — 1.58
Colorado Rapids over 0.5 in 1st half 37.0% 36.6% — — 2.73
Colorado Rapids over 1.5 in 1st half 7.9% 6.2% — — 16.10
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids scores equally in both 42.5% 43.5% — — 2.30
Colorado Rapids scores more in 2nd half 36.2% 37.4% — — 2.67
Colorado Rapids scores more in 1st half 21.4% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (away no bet) 67.8% 66.4% 64.6% 1.03× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 32.2% 33.6% 35.4% 0.95× 2.97
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids even goals 55.0% 52.6% 53.6% 0.98× 1.90
Colorado Rapids odd goals 45.0% 47.4% 46.4% 1.02× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 82.3% 82.8% — — 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 17.7% 17.2% — — 5.81
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 68.2% 68.4% — — 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 31.8% 31.6% — — 3.17
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 60.2% 59.8% — — 1.67
FC Dallas to score 2+ in a row 44.5% 38.8% — — 2.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row 23.4% 19.6% — — 5.09
Colorado Rapids to score 2+ in a row 22.9% 19.6% — — 5.10
FC Dallas to score 3+ in a row 18.0% 16.2% — — 6.16
Colorado Rapids to score 3+ in a row 5.7% 5.5% — — 18.21
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids corners (+3.5) 86.1% 84.5% — — 1.18
Colorado Rapids corners (+2.5) 79.5% 74.8% — — 1.34
FC Dallas corners (+3.5) 77.5% 74.8% — — 1.34
Colorado Rapids corners (+1.5) 71.3% 70.7% — — 1.41
FC Dallas corners (+2.5) 69.2% 65.9% — — 1.52
FC Dallas corners (+1.5) 59.4% 57.1% — — 1.75
Colorado Rapids corners (-1.5) 40.6% 42.9% — — 2.33
Colorado Rapids corners (-2.5) 30.8% 34.1% — — 2.93
FC Dallas corners (-1.5) 28.7% 29.3% — — 3.42
Colorado Rapids corners (-3.5) 22.5% 25.2% — — 3.97
FC Dallas corners (-2.5) 20.5% 25.2% — — 3.97
FC Dallas corners (-3.5) 13.9% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 37.5% 34.0% — — 2.94
12+ corners 33.0% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 29.5% 31.2% — — 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 74.9% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 72.5% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 67.0% 67.8% — — 1.47
Over 8.5 corners 62.5% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 57.9% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 52.1% 53.1% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 47.9% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 10.5 corners 42.1% 42.1% — — 2.38
Under 8.5 corners 37.5% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 33.0% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 27.5% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 25.1% 27.5% — — 3.64
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.5% 11.5% 10.4% 1.11× 8.72
1-0 8.9% 7.4% 8.2% 0.90× 13.51
2-0 8.4% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.51
2-1 9.7% 7.4% 10.0% 0.74× 13.51
0-0 5.9% 7.4% 5.8% 1.29× 13.51
0-1 5.6% 7.4% 6.4% 1.15× 13.51
1-2 6.3% 7.4% 7.7% 0.97× 13.51
2-2 5.6% 7.4% 6.1% 1.22× 13.51
3-1 5.8% 7.4% 4.8% 1.53× 13.51
3-0 5.0% 1.7% 4.2% 0.41× 58.29
0-2 3.5% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.30
0-3 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 0.95× 58.31
0-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.17× 58.32
1-3 2.4% 1.7% 3.4% 0.51× 58.31
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.32
2-3 2.2% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.31
2-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.32
3-2 3.3% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.30
3-3 1.3% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.31
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.54× 58.32
4-0 2.2% 1.7% 1.2% 1.38× 58.31
4-1 2.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.30
4-2 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.09× 58.31
4-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.17× 58.32
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.80× 58.32
Any other score 4.1% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (2nd half DNB) 63.5% 62.9% — — 1.59
Colorado Rapids (2nd half DNB) 36.5% 37.1% — — 2.69
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas leading at HT (DNB) 66.1% 74.0% — — 1.35
Colorado Rapids leading at HT (DNB) 33.9% 26.0% — — 3.85
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas or draw (1X) 75.9% 75.5% 70.0% 1.08× 1.32
FC Dallas or Colorado Rapids (12) 75.5% 75.5% 75.2% 1.00× 1.32
Colorado Rapids or draw (X2) 48.5% 48.6% 54.7% 0.89× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas or draw at HT 79.9% 79.6% — — 1.26
Colorado Rapids or draw at HT 60.9% 60.9% — — 1.64
FC Dallas or Colorado Rapids at HT 59.2% 57.7% — — 1.73
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas or draw (1UP) 75.9% 83.6% — — 1.20
Colorado Rapids or draw (1UP) 48.5% 53.4% — — 1.87
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas or draw in 2nd half 75.8% 75.8% — — 1.32
FC Dallas or Colorado Rapids in 2nd half 66.3% 65.9% — — 1.52
Colorado Rapids or draw in 2nd half 57.9% 58.2% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 60.1% 61.2% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 39.9% 38.8% — — 2.58
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (DNB) 68.1% 67.4% 60.2% 1.12× 1.48
Colorado Rapids (DNB) 31.9% 32.6% 39.8% 0.82× 3.07
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to score first 57.1% 62.2% — — 1.61
Colorado Rapids to score first 37.0% 32.7% — — 3.06
No goal scored 5.9% 7.4% — — 13.54
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 57.5% 55.0% 61.3% 0.90× 1.82
Not both teams to score 42.5% 45.0% 38.7% 1.16× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 46.0% 44.3% 51.1% 0.87× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 32.3% 34.5% 29.5% 1.17× 2.90
Both score & under 2.5 11.5% 12.4% 10.4% 1.19× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 10.2% 12.4% 9.2% 1.34× 8.09
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 83.0% 82.6% 79.5% 1.04× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 17.0% 17.4% 20.5% 0.85× 5.75
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 68.0% 67.2% — — 1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half 32.0% 32.8% — — 3.04
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 54.4% 54.6% — — 1.83
Both score 2nd half only 25.7% 27.2% — — 3.68
Both score 1st half only 13.6% 10.8% — — 9.26
Both score in both halves 6.3% 6.8% — — 14.72
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.1% 83.0% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 19.9% 17.0% — — 5.90
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 58.1% 57.0% — — 1.75
A half without a goal 41.9% 43.0% — — 2.33
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.9% 47.2% 43.0% 1.10× 2.12
4-6 goals 30.8% 30.7% 33.0% 0.93× 3.26
0-1 goals 20.3% 22.9% 20.2% 1.13× 4.37
7+ goals 3.0% 1.8% 4.1% 0.45× 54.23
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to score exactly 1 36.4% 35.9% 34.6% 1.04× 2.78
Colorado Rapids to score exactly 0 31.5% 33.8% 26.7% 1.27× 2.96
Colorado Rapids to score exactly 2 21.0% 22.3% 22.2% 1.00× 4.49
Colorado Rapids to score 3+ 11.1% 12.9% 16.7% 0.77× 7.77
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to score exactly 1 30.0% 32.6% 31.1% 1.05× 3.07
FC Dallas to score exactly 2 26.7% 26.5% 26.4% 1.01× 3.77
FC Dallas to score 3+ 26.4% 26.5% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
FC Dallas to score exactly 0 16.9% 18.8% 17.7% 1.06× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 40.8% 42.3% — — 2.37
FC Dallas leading at HT 39.1% 39.1% — — 2.56
Colorado Rapids leading at HT 20.1% 20.4% — — 4.89
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas -1: 2 48.5% 47.0% — — 2.13
FC Dallas -1: 1 28.9% 26.5% — — 3.77
FC Dallas -1: X 22.6% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (0:1) 48.5% 46.2% 54.7% 0.84× 2.17
FC Dallas (0:1) 28.9% 27.0% 23.2% 1.16× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 22.6% 24.2% 22.2% 1.09× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (0:2) 71.1% 75.6% 76.8% 0.99× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 15.9% 15.3% 12.7% 1.20× 6.56
FC Dallas (0:2) 13.0% 11.0% 10.6% 1.04× 9.10
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (0:3) 87.0% 90.6% 89.4% 1.01× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 8.2% 5.8% 6.7% 0.87× 17.21
FC Dallas (0:3) 4.8% 2.4% 4.1% 0.59× 42.02
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (0:4) 95.2% 98.1% 95.9% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.3% 1.2% 2.0% 0.60× 81.80
FC Dallas (0:4) 1.5% 1.2% 2.1% 0.57× 82.00
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (1:0) 75.9% 78.6% 70.0% 1.12× 1.27
Draw (1:0) 14.4% 12.7% 17.1% 0.74× 7.86
Colorado Rapids (1:0) 9.6% 6.9% 13.0% 0.53× 14.44
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (2:0) 90.4% 93.9% 87.0% 1.08× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 6.7% 6.4% 8.6% 0.74× 15.68
Colorado Rapids (2:0) 3.0% 2.3% 4.5% 0.51× 43.70
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.2% 48.7% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.1% 26.2% — — 3.82
Halves equal 24.7% 24.4% — — 4.10
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to concede 68.5% 66.7% 73.3% 0.91× 1.50
FC Dallas clean sheet 31.5% 33.3% 26.7% 1.25× 3.01
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas clean sheet in 1st half 63.0% 63.3% — — 1.58
FC Dallas to concede in 1st half 37.0% 36.7% — — 2.73
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas clean sheet in 2nd half 50.0% 52.7% — — 1.90
FC Dallas to concede in 2nd half 50.0% 47.3% — — 2.12
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas over 2.5 corners 78.7% 76.5% — — 1.31
FC Dallas under 6.5 corners 77.2% 76.5% — — 1.31
FC Dallas under 5.5 corners 66.0% 66.7% — — 1.50
FC Dallas over 3.5 corners 63.6% 62.3% — — 1.61
FC Dallas under 4.5 corners 52.1% 52.6% — — 1.90
FC Dallas over 4.5 corners 47.9% 47.4% — — 2.11
FC Dallas under 3.5 corners 36.4% 37.7% — — 2.65
FC Dallas over 5.5 corners 34.0% 33.3% — — 3.01
FC Dallas over 6.5 corners 22.8% 23.5% — — 4.26
FC Dallas under 2.5 corners 21.3% 23.5% — — 4.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas under 3.5 goals 89.5% 87.3% 90.6% 0.96× 1.15
FC Dallas over 0.5 goals 83.1% 82.2% 82.3% 1.00× 1.22
FC Dallas under 2.5 goals 73.6% 74.2% 75.0% 0.99× 1.35
FC Dallas over 1.5 goals 53.1% 53.2% 51.3% 1.04× 1.88
FC Dallas under 1.5 goals 46.9% 46.8% 48.7% 0.96× 2.14
FC Dallas over 2.5 goals 26.4% 25.8% 25.0% 1.03× 3.88
FC Dallas under 0.5 goals 16.9% 17.8% 17.7% 1.00× 5.63
FC Dallas over 3.5 goals 10.5% 12.7% 9.4% 1.36× 7.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas under 1.5 in 1st half 82.1% 83.8% — — 1.19
FC Dallas over 0.5 in 1st half 53.5% 50.4% — — 1.99
FC Dallas under 0.5 in 1st half 46.5% 49.6% — — 2.02
FC Dallas over 1.5 in 1st half 17.9% 16.2% — — 6.16
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas scores more in 2nd half 40.4% 42.0% — — 2.38
FC Dallas scores equally in both 32.7% 33.2% — — 3.01
FC Dallas scores more in 1st half 26.8% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 50.4% 51.4% 45.3% 1.13× 1.95
Colorado Rapids (home no bet) 49.6% 48.6% 54.7% 0.89× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas even goals 51.4% 50.7% 51.0% 1.00× 1.97
FC Dallas odd goals 48.6% 49.3% 49.0% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 29.4% 28.5% — — 3.51
HT 1-0 22.3% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 13.4% 11.0% — — 9.10
HT 1-1 10.5% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 2-0 8.6% 6.9% — — 14.44
Any other HT score 5.4% 6.9% — — 14.49
HT 2-1 4.0% 2.4% — — 41.95
HT 0-2 3.1% 2.4% — — 42.00
HT 1-2 2.4% 2.4% — — 42.05
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.4% — — 42.15
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas at HT / FC Dallas at FT 31.8% 32.3% — — 3.10
Draw at HT / FC Dallas at FT 16.9% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.4% 12.7% — — 7.90
Colorado Rapids at HT / Colorado Rapids at FT 12.5% 12.6% — — 7.91
Draw at HT / Colorado Rapids at FT 9.6% 6.1% — — 16.37
FC Dallas at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.1% — — 16.49
Colorado Rapids at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% — — 28.80
Colorado Rapids at HT / FC Dallas at FT 2.8% 3.5% — — 28.87
FC Dallas at HT / Colorado Rapids at FT 2.0% 3.5% — — 28.90
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to score last 57.2% 56.4% — — 1.77
Colorado Rapids to score last 37.0% 38.7% — — 2.58
No goal scored 5.9% 7.4% — — 13.54
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.1% 92.7% — — 1.08
FC Dallas to lead by 1 at any time 66.6% 69.4% — — 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 50.7% 50.8% — — 1.97
Colorado Rapids to lead by 1 at any time 43.1% 39.3% — — 2.55
FC Dallas to lead by 2 at any time 35.9% 34.6% — — 2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 20.0% 14.9% — — 6.70
FC Dallas to lead by 3 at any time 15.7% 14.9% — — 6.73
Colorado Rapids to lead by 2 at any time 15.1% 14.8% — — 6.74
Colorado Rapids to lead by 3 at any time 4.3% 1.6% — — 60.85
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids most corners 51.1% 51.7% — — 1.94
FC Dallas most corners 38.4% 39.3% — — 2.54
Corners level 10.5% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.4% 87.4% 83.4% 1.05× 1.14
1-4 goals 76.7% 78.7% 73.2% 1.08× 1.27
2-6 goals 76.6% 78.7% 75.9% 1.04× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.9% 72.3% 69.0% 1.05× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.3% 63.3% 58.7% 1.08× 1.58
1-3 goals 60.3% 63.3% 57.4% 1.10× 1.58
3-6 goals 53.2% 53.2% 56.3% 0.95× 1.88
3-5 goals 48.5% 48.5% 49.4% 0.98× 2.06
2-3 goals 45.9% 48.5% 43.0% 1.13× 2.06
3-4 goals 38.8% 39.2% 39.1% 1.00× 2.55
1-2 goals 37.9% 39.2% 34.2% 1.15× 2.55
4-6 goals 30.8% 35.2% 33.0% 1.07× 2.84
4-5 goals 26.1% 30.2% 26.2% 1.16× 3.31
5-6 goals 14.4% 14.8% 17.2% 0.86× 6.75
7+ goals 3.0% 2.6% 4.1% 0.63× 39.12
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas never behind 51.0% 62.2% — — 1.61
Colorado Rapids never behind 27.5% 30.0% — — 3.33
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.7% 50.9% 50.5% 1.01× 1.96
Even number of goals 51.3% 49.1% 49.5% 0.99× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.5% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.5% 48.2% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.0% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.0% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.1% 92.3% 94.3% 0.98× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.3% 92.3% 89.1% 1.04× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 82.6% 82.3% 78.8% 1.04× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 79.7% 77.3% 79.8% 0.97× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 66.2% 66.3% 63.0% 1.05× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 56.2% 58.6% 60.2% 0.97× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 43.8% 41.4% 39.8% 1.04× 2.42
Over 3.5 goals 33.8% 33.7% 37.0% 0.91× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 20.3% 22.7% 20.2% 1.12× 4.41
Over 4.5 goals 17.4% 17.7% 21.2% 0.83× 5.66
Over 5.5 goals 7.7% 7.7% 10.9% 0.71× 12.95
Under 0.5 goals 5.9% 7.7% 5.8% 1.34× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.8% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.4% 92.4% 87.8% 1.05× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 79.2% 75.9% 74.8% 1.01× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 73.4% 72.4% 74.9% 0.97× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 56.5% 55.8% 51.8% 1.08× 1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 43.5% 44.2% 48.2% 0.92× 2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 26.6% 27.6% 25.1% 1.10× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 20.8% 24.1% 25.2% 0.96× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 8.6% 7.6% 12.2% 0.62× 13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.2% 2.8% 4.4% 0.64× 35.58
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.4% 89.0% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.6% 71.4% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 65.2% 68.5% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 34.8% 31.5% — — 3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half 29.4% 28.6% — — 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.6% 11.0% — — 9.10
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.7% 82.9% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 75.5% 79.6% — — 1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 51.1% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 48.9% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 24.5% 20.4% — — 4.91
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 18.3% 17.1% — — 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids not to score in both halves 81.5% 84.2% — — 1.19
FC Dallas not to score in both halves 65.9% 70.0% — — 1.43
FC Dallas to score in both halves 34.1% 30.0% — — 3.33
Colorado Rapids to score in both halves 18.5% 15.8% — — 6.31
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 57.5% 58.7% 61.3% 0.96× 1.71
Only FC Dallas scores 25.6% 26.0% 21.1% 1.23× 3.85
Only Colorado Rapids scores 11.0% 11.0% 12.1% 0.91× 9.07
Neither team scores 5.9% 7.1% 5.8% 1.24× 14.04
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.5% 22.6% 19.7% 1.14× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 23.3% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 16.4% 17.5% 15.9% 1.10× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 14.5% 12.1% 14.5% 0.83× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 9.6% 7.6% 10.4% 0.73× 13.14
6 or more goals 7.7% 7.6% 10.9% 0.70× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 5.9% 7.6% 5.8% 1.32× 13.15
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.8% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 29.4% 28.6% — — 3.50
2 goals in 1st half 22.2% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 12.6% 10.9% — — 9.18
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 51.1% 51.4% — — 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 30.6% 33.7% — — 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 18.3% 16.7% — — 5.98
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids not to win both halves 95.1% 97.1% — — 1.03
FC Dallas not to win both halves 83.4% 83.9% — — 1.19
FC Dallas to win both halves 16.6% 16.1% — — 6.19
Colorado Rapids to win both halves 4.9% 2.9% — — 35.01
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to win either half 64.6% 65.0% — — 1.54
Colorado Rapids to win neither half 60.6% 64.9% — — 1.54
Colorado Rapids to win either half 39.4% 35.1% — — 2.85
FC Dallas to win neither half 35.4% 35.0% — — 2.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids not to win to nil 89.0% 88.1% 87.9% 1.00× 1.14
FC Dallas not to win to nil 74.4% 75.4% 78.9% 0.96× 1.33
FC Dallas to win to nil 25.6% 24.6% 21.1% 1.17× 4.06
Colorado Rapids to win to nil 11.0% 11.9% 12.1% 0.98× 8.43
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.5% 24.1% 24.8% 0.97× 4.15
FC Dallas by 1 22.6% 24.1% 22.2% 1.09× 4.15
FC Dallas by 2 15.9% 17.0% 12.7% 1.34× 5.87
Colorado Rapids by 1 14.4% 11.8% 17.1% 0.69× 8.51
FC Dallas by 3+ 13.0% 11.8% 10.6% 1.11× 8.51
Colorado Rapids by 2 6.7% 7.2% 8.6% 0.84× 13.91
Colorado Rapids by 3+ 3.0% 2.7% 4.5% 0.60× 36.84
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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