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FC Dallas v Portland Timbers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
FC Dallas win
51.1%
model 51.4%
Draw
21.8%
model 22.0%
Portland Timbers win
27.1%
model 26.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (425 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 9.3%
  2. 2-1 9.2%
  3. 2-2 6.7%
  4. 1-2 6.5%
  5. 2-0 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.568.1% Under 2.531.9%
BTTS yes67.2% BTTS no32.8%
FC Dallas 1+87.3% FC Dallas 2+61.1%
Portland Timbers 1+76.5% Portland Timbers 2+42.5%

Expected goals 2.06 – 1.45. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
60/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
FC Dallas over 1.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 51%
62.4% fair odds 1.60
strong signal · 9927 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
83.1% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 583 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • FC Dallas carry the stronger rating, 1554 Elo against 1489.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Dallas have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 27.1% for Portland Timbers and 21.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.06 for FC Dallas and 1.45 for Portland Timbers.

Why FC Dallas

FC Dallas carry the stronger rating, 1554 Elo against 1489.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.8%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Portland Timbers can win

Nothing in the data singles out Portland Timbers.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Dallas, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Portland Timbers, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Dallas: 41% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Portland Timbers: 47% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

FC Dallas are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.3%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.06–1.45 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.23–1.56 2-1 9% 73% 71%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to win 51.4% 51.2% 45.4% 1.13× 1.95
Portland Timbers to win 26.6% 27.1% 29.9% 0.91× 3.69
Draw 22.0% 23.6% 24.9% 0.95× 4.23
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas & both teams score 31.3% 30.8% 24.4% 1.26× 3.24
FC Dallas & not both score 20.1% 21.7% 21.1% 1.03× 4.61
Draw & both teams score 18.7% 18.1% 19.1% 0.95× 5.52
Portland Timbers & both teams score 17.2% 18.1% 17.8% 1.02× 5.52
Portland Timbers & not both score 9.3% 7.7% 12.3% 0.62× 13.07
Draw & not both score 3.4% 4.2% 5.8% 0.72× 23.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas & over 1.5 45.6% 46.3% 37.1% 1.25× 2.16
FC Dallas & over 2.5 39.3% 36.6% 30.9% 1.18× 2.74
FC Dallas & over 3.5 25.7% 26.4% 17.2% 1.54× 3.79
FC Dallas & under 3.5 25.7% 26.4% 28.3% 0.93× 3.79
Portland Timbers & over 1.5 22.6% 21.8% 23.5% 0.93× 4.58
Portland Timbers & over 2.5 19.5% 17.7% 20.3% 0.87× 5.64
Draw & over 1.5 18.7% 17.7% 19.1% 0.93× 5.64
Portland Timbers & under 3.5 15.0% 17.7% 18.8% 0.94× 5.64
FC Dallas & under 2.5 12.1% 12.4% 14.5% 0.85× 8.06
Draw & under 2.5 12.7% 12.4% 16.0% 0.77× 8.06
Draw & under 3.5 12.7% 12.4% 16.0% 0.77× 8.06
Portland Timbers & over 3.5 11.5% 12.4% 11.2% 1.11× 8.06
Draw & over 2.5 9.3% 7.6% 8.9% 0.85× 13.20
Draw & over 3.5 9.3% 7.6% 8.9% 0.85× 13.20
Portland Timbers & under 2.5 7.1% 7.6% 9.7% 0.78× 13.21
FC Dallas & under 1.5 5.8% 7.6% 8.4% 0.91× 13.21
Portland Timbers & under 1.5 3.9% 4.4% 6.5% 0.67× 22.79
Draw & under 1.5 3.4% 4.4% 5.8% 0.75× 22.79
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (1UP) 68.7% 69.9% 1.43
Portland Timbers (1UP) 48.2% 48.2% 2.08
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (2UP) 51.4% 52.6% 1.90
Portland Timbers (2UP) 26.6% 27.7% 3.61
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to win 2nd half 42.8% 41.4% 2.42
2nd half drawn 30.2% 32.8% 3.05
Portland Timbers to win 2nd half 27.0% 28.3% 3.53
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.4% 78.1% 1.28
Portland Timbers over 0.5 in 2nd half 58.1% 54.9% 1.82
Portland Timbers under 0.5 in 2nd half 41.9% 45.1% 2.22
Portland Timbers over 1.5 in 2nd half 21.6% 21.9% 4.56
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas over 0.5 in 2nd half 69.1% 70.1% 1.43
FC Dallas under 1.5 in 2nd half 67.2% 70.0% 1.43
FC Dallas over 1.5 in 2nd half 32.8% 30.0% 3.34
FC Dallas under 0.5 in 2nd half 30.9% 29.9% 3.35
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers (+2.5) 85.1% 87.4% 89.5% 0.98× 1.14
FC Dallas (+0.5) 73.4% 73.3% 70.1% 1.05× 1.36
Portland Timbers (+1.5) 69.5% 67.9% 76.7% 0.88× 1.47
FC Dallas (-0.5) 51.4% 51.8% 45.4% 1.14× 1.93
Portland Timbers (+0.5) 48.6% 48.2% 54.6% 0.88× 2.07
FC Dallas (-1.5) 30.5% 32.1% 23.3% 1.38× 3.12
Portland Timbers (-0.5) 26.6% 26.7% 29.9% 0.89× 3.75
FC Dallas (-2.5) 14.9% 12.6% 10.5% 1.20× 7.94
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers to concede 87.3% 88.1% 82.0% 1.07× 1.14
Portland Timbers clean sheet 12.7% 11.9% 18.0% 0.66× 8.39
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers to concede in 1st half 58.8% 57.4% 1.74
Portland Timbers clean sheet in 1st half 41.2% 42.6% 2.35
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers to concede in 2nd half 69.1% 67.6% 1.48
Portland Timbers clean sheet in 2nd half 30.9% 32.4% 3.08
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers over 2.5 corners 83.3% 81.4% 1.23
Portland Timbers under 6.5 corners 70.5% 71.6% 1.40
Portland Timbers over 3.5 corners 70.1% 71.6% 1.40
Portland Timbers under 5.5 corners 58.5% 57.1% 1.75
Portland Timbers over 4.5 corners 55.5% 57.1% 1.75
Portland Timbers under 4.5 corners 44.5% 42.9% 2.33
Portland Timbers over 5.5 corners 41.5% 42.9% 2.33
Portland Timbers under 3.5 corners 29.9% 28.4% 3.52
Portland Timbers over 6.5 corners 29.5% 28.4% 3.52
Portland Timbers under 2.5 corners 16.7% 18.6% 5.37
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers under 3.5 goals 94.1% 92.2% 93.9% 0.98× 1.09
Portland Timbers under 2.5 goals 82.2% 82.5% 83.3% 0.99× 1.21
Portland Timbers over 0.5 goals 76.5% 76.4% 73.2% 1.04× 1.31
Portland Timbers under 1.5 goals 57.5% 58.9% 61.3% 0.96× 1.70
Portland Timbers over 1.5 goals 42.5% 41.1% 38.7% 1.06× 2.43
Portland Timbers under 0.5 goals 23.5% 23.6% 26.8% 0.88× 4.23
Portland Timbers over 2.5 goals 17.8% 17.5% 16.7% 1.05× 5.71
Portland Timbers over 3.5 goals 5.9% 7.8% 6.1% 1.29× 12.76
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers under 1.5 in 1st half 88.5% 87.1% 1.15
Portland Timbers under 0.5 in 1st half 56.0% 54.0% 1.85
Portland Timbers over 0.5 in 1st half 44.0% 46.0% 2.18
Portland Timbers over 1.5 in 1st half 11.5% 12.9% 7.76
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers scores more in 2nd half 40.1% 42.1% 2.38
Portland Timbers scores equally in both 36.9% 38.1% 2.63
Portland Timbers scores more in 1st half 23.0% 23.5% 4.25
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (away no bet) 70.0% 66.9% 64.6% 1.04× 1.50
Draw (away no bet) 30.0% 33.1% 35.4% 0.93× 3.02
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers even goals 52.8% 53.6% 53.6% 1.00× 1.87
Portland Timbers odd goals 47.2% 46.4% 46.4% 1.00× 2.16
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 73.9% 72.4% 1.38
Both halves over 1.5 goals 26.1% 27.6% 3.62
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 77.8% 73.8% 1.36
Both halves under 1.5 goals 22.2% 26.2% 3.81
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 69.1% 64.8% 1.54
FC Dallas to score 2+ in a row 50.3% 51.3% 1.95
Portland Timbers to score 2+ in a row 30.2% 31.9% 3.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row 30.0% 26.8% 3.74
FC Dallas to score 3+ in a row 21.9% 21.7% 4.61
Portland Timbers to score 3+ in a row 8.8% 7.8% 12.90
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas corners (+3.5) 81.8% 79.8% 1.25
Portland Timbers corners (+3.5) 80.9% 79.8% 1.25
FC Dallas corners (+2.5) 74.4% 70.7% 1.41
Portland Timbers corners (+2.5) 73.4% 70.7% 1.41
FC Dallas corners (+1.5) 65.6% 65.8% 1.52
Portland Timbers corners (+1.5) 64.5% 61.8% 1.62
FC Dallas corners (-1.5) 35.5% 38.2% 2.62
Portland Timbers corners (-1.5) 34.4% 34.2% 2.93
FC Dallas corners (-2.5) 26.6% 29.3% 3.42
Portland Timbers corners (-2.5) 25.6% 29.3% 3.42
FC Dallas corners (-3.5) 19.1% 20.2% 4.95
Portland Timbers corners (-3.5) 18.2% 20.2% 4.95
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 37.6% 34.0% 2.95
0-8 corners 33.2% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 29.2% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 76.2% 76.5% 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 70.7% 72.6% 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 66.8% 67.7% 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 62.4% 63.3% 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 56.9% 57.9% 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 53.0% 53.2% 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 47.0% 46.8% 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 43.1% 42.1% 2.37
Over 11.5 corners 37.6% 36.7% 2.73
Under 8.5 corners 33.2% 32.3% 3.10
Over 12.5 corners 29.3% 27.4% 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 23.8% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 5.8% 7.4% 8.4% 0.89× 13.45
1-1 9.3% 7.4% 10.3% 0.72× 13.45
1-2 6.5% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.45
2-0 6.4% 7.4% 6.3% 1.18× 13.45
2-1 9.2% 7.4% 9.9% 0.75× 13.45
2-2 6.7% 7.4% 6.1% 1.22× 13.45
3-1 6.3% 7.4% 4.9% 1.51× 13.45
Any other score 7.4% 7.4% 4.7% 1.58× 13.45
0-0 3.4% 1.7% 5.8% 0.29× 58.34
0-1 3.9% 1.7% 6.5% 0.26× 58.34
0-2 3.1% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.34
0-3 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 0.94× 58.34
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.14× 58.35
1-3 3.1% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.34
1-4 1.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.25× 58.34
2-3 3.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.34
2-4 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.34
3-0 4.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.34
3-2 4.6% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.34
3-3 2.2% 1.7% 2.6% 0.65× 58.34
3-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.7% 2.49× 58.35
4-0 2.3% 1.7% 1.3% 1.36× 58.34
4-1 3.3% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.34
4-2 2.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.34
4-3 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.14× 58.34
4-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.74× 58.35
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (2nd half DNB) 61.3% 63.3% 1.58
Portland Timbers (2nd half DNB) 38.7% 36.7% 2.73
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas leading at HT (DNB) 64.3% 62.4% 1.60
Portland Timbers leading at HT (DNB) 35.7% 37.6% 2.66
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas or Portland Timbers (12) 78.0% 76.4% 75.1% 1.02× 1.31
FC Dallas or draw (1X) 73.4% 72.9% 70.1% 1.04× 1.37
Portland Timbers or draw (X2) 48.6% 48.8% 54.6% 0.89× 2.05
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas or draw at HT 77.4% 76.8% 1.30
FC Dallas or Portland Timbers at HT 63.3% 62.9% 1.59
Portland Timbers or draw at HT 59.3% 57.2% 1.75
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas or draw (1UP) 73.4% 79.0% 1.27
Portland Timbers or draw (1UP) 48.6% 55.4% 1.80
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas or draw in 2nd half 73.0% 71.7% 1.40
FC Dallas or Portland Timbers in 2nd half 69.8% 67.2% 1.49
Portland Timbers or draw in 2nd half 57.2% 58.6% 1.71
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 55.4% 54.6% 1.83
Neither half drawn 44.6% 45.4% 2.20
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (DNB) 65.9% 67.2% 60.3% 1.11× 1.49
Portland Timbers (DNB) 34.1% 32.8% 39.7% 0.83× 3.05
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to score first 56.8% 60.9% 1.64
Portland Timbers to score first 39.9% 37.6% 2.66
No goal scored 3.4% 4.7% 21.42
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 67.2% 63.2% 61.1% 1.04× 1.58
Not both teams to score 32.8% 36.8% 38.9% 0.94× 2.72
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 57.9% 55.5% 50.9% 1.09× 1.80
Not both score & under 2.5 22.6% 25.0% 29.9% 0.84× 4.00
Not both score & over 2.5 10.3% 11.9% 9.2% 1.30× 8.41
Both score & under 2.5 9.3% 8.4% 10.3% 0.82× 11.85
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 74.1% 75.9% 79.5% 0.95× 1.32
Both teams to score 2+ 25.9% 24.1% 20.5% 1.18× 4.15
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 59.7% 64.6% 1.55
Both teams to score in 2nd half 40.3% 35.4% 2.83
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 44.2% 46.8% 2.14
Both score 2nd half only 29.9% 26.0% 3.85
Both score 1st half only 15.5% 18.3% 5.45
Both score in both halves 10.4% 11.9% 8.44
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 74.1% 75.4% 1.33
Both teams to score by HT 25.9% 24.6% 4.06
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 67.2% 68.8% 1.45
A half without a goal 32.8% 31.2% 3.21
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 40.4% 43.6% 42.5% 1.03× 2.29
4-6 goals 40.0% 35.3% 33.1% 1.07× 2.83
0-1 goals 13.1% 14.9% 20.5% 0.73× 6.71
7+ goals 6.6% 6.6% 4.1% 1.60× 15.11
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers to score exactly 1 34.0% 32.3% 34.6% 0.93× 3.09
Portland Timbers to score exactly 2 24.6% 23.3% 22.1% 1.05× 4.30
Portland Timbers to score exactly 0 23.5% 23.3% 26.8% 0.87× 4.30
Portland Timbers to score 3+ 17.8% 18.2% 16.7% 1.09× 5.49
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to score 3+ 34.0% 32.2% 25.2% 1.28× 3.10
FC Dallas to score exactly 2 27.0% 26.4% 26.0% 1.02× 3.78
FC Dallas to score exactly 1 26.2% 26.4% 31.0% 0.85× 3.78
FC Dallas to score exactly 0 12.7% 13.3% 18.0% 0.74× 7.53
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas leading at HT 40.7% 42.8% 2.34
Draw at HT 36.7% 37.1% 2.70
Portland Timbers leading at HT 22.6% 23.2% 4.31
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas -1: 2 48.6% 48.2% 2.07
FC Dallas -1: 1 30.5% 30.4% 3.29
FC Dallas -1: X 20.9% 23.3% 4.29
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers (0:1) 48.6% 47.6% 54.6% 0.87× 2.10
FC Dallas (0:1) 30.5% 31.0% 23.3% 1.33× 3.23
Draw (0:1) 20.9% 23.6% 22.2% 1.06× 4.24
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers (0:2) 69.5% 69.9% 76.7% 0.91× 1.43
Draw (0:2) 15.6% 15.7% 12.8% 1.22× 6.38
FC Dallas (0:2) 14.9% 11.4% 10.5% 1.08× 8.80
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers (0:3) 85.1% 88.6% 89.5% 0.99× 1.13
Draw (0:3) 8.8% 6.5% 6.6% 0.98× 15.39
FC Dallas (0:3) 6.1% 6.5% 4.0% 1.62× 15.41
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers (0:4) 93.9% 93.3% 96.0% 0.97× 1.07
Draw (0:4) 4.0% 1.4% 2.1% 0.69× 70.63
FC Dallas (0:4) 2.1% 1.4% 2.1% 0.69× 70.70
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (1:0) 73.4% 72.4% 70.1% 1.03× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 14.6% 12.6% 16.8% 0.75× 7.97
Portland Timbers (1:0) 12.0% 12.5% 13.2% 0.95× 7.97
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas (2:0) 88.0% 88.1% 86.8% 1.01× 1.14
Draw (2:0) 7.7% 6.6% 8.7% 0.76× 15.11
Portland Timbers (2:0) 4.3% 2.8% 4.6% 0.61× 35.88
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.7% 52.8% 1.89
1st half highest scoring 27.4% 26.2% 3.82
Halves equal 21.9% 23.2% 4.31
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to concede 76.5% 77.1% 73.2% 1.05× 1.30
FC Dallas clean sheet 23.5% 22.9% 26.8% 0.85× 4.37
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas clean sheet in 1st half 56.0% 54.0% 1.85
FC Dallas to concede in 1st half 44.0% 46.0% 2.18
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to concede in 2nd half 58.1% 54.6% 1.83
FC Dallas clean sheet in 2nd half 41.9% 45.4% 2.20
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas over 2.5 corners 83.8% 81.0% 1.24
FC Dallas over 3.5 corners 70.8% 71.9% 1.39
FC Dallas under 6.5 corners 69.7% 66.7% 1.50
FC Dallas under 5.5 corners 57.6% 57.6% 1.74
FC Dallas over 4.5 corners 56.4% 57.6% 1.74
FC Dallas under 4.5 corners 43.6% 42.4% 2.36
FC Dallas over 5.5 corners 42.4% 42.4% 2.36
FC Dallas over 6.5 corners 30.3% 33.3% 3.01
FC Dallas under 3.5 corners 29.2% 28.1% 3.56
FC Dallas under 2.5 corners 16.2% 19.0% 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas over 0.5 goals 87.3% 87.3% 82.0% 1.06× 1.15
FC Dallas under 3.5 goals 84.6% 82.3% 90.6% 0.91× 1.22
FC Dallas under 2.5 goals 66.0% 68.3% 74.8% 0.91× 1.46
FC Dallas over 1.5 goals 61.1% 62.4% 51.1% 1.22× 1.60
FC Dallas under 1.5 goals 38.9% 37.6% 48.9% 0.77× 2.66
FC Dallas over 2.5 goals 34.0% 31.7% 25.2% 1.26× 3.15
FC Dallas over 3.5 goals 15.4% 17.7% 9.4% 1.88× 5.66
FC Dallas under 0.5 goals 12.7% 12.7% 18.0% 0.71× 7.87
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas under 1.5 in 1st half 77.7% 77.4% 1.29
FC Dallas over 0.5 in 1st half 58.8% 57.5% 1.74
FC Dallas under 0.5 in 1st half 41.2% 42.5% 2.35
FC Dallas over 1.5 in 1st half 22.3% 22.6% 4.42
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas scores more in 2nd half 42.5% 41.7% 2.40
FC Dallas scores equally in both 29.9% 27.8% 3.59
FC Dallas scores more in 1st half 27.6% 27.8% 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers (home no bet) 54.7% 52.0% 54.6% 0.95× 1.92
Draw (home no bet) 45.3% 48.0% 45.4% 1.06× 2.08
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas even goals 50.8% 50.9% 51.0% 1.00× 1.96
FC Dallas odd goals 49.2% 49.1% 49.0% 1.00× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 23.1% 22.5% 4.44
HT 1-0 20.4% 22.5% 4.45
HT 0-1 13.3% 10.9% 9.14
HT 1-1 11.9% 10.9% 9.16
HT 2-0 9.1% 8.0% 12.53
Any other HT score 8.1% 8.0% 12.54
HT 2-1 5.3% 8.0% 12.57
HT 0-2 3.9% 2.5% 40.41
HT 1-2 3.4% 2.5% 40.43
HT 2-2 1.5% 2.5% 40.51
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas at HT / FC Dallas at FT 32.5% 34.1% 2.93
Draw at HT / FC Dallas at FT 15.5% 17.3% 5.78
Portland Timbers at HT / Portland Timbers at FT 14.3% 12.0% 8.32
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.5% 12.0% 8.33
Draw at HT / Portland Timbers at FT 9.7% 6.5% 15.42
FC Dallas at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.5% 15.50
Portland Timbers at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.6% 27.50
Portland Timbers at HT / FC Dallas at FT 3.5% 3.6% 27.54
FC Dallas at HT / Portland Timbers at FT 2.6% 3.6% 27.56
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to score last 56.8% 56.4% 1.77
Portland Timbers to score last 39.8% 38.6% 2.59
No goal scored 3.4% 4.7% 21.42
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.6% 95.3% 1.05
FC Dallas to lead by 1 at any time 68.7% 69.0% 1.45
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 58.1% 55.6% 1.80
Portland Timbers to lead by 1 at any time 48.2% 46.6% 2.15
FC Dallas to lead by 2 at any time 39.3% 37.4% 2.67
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 25.1% 24.9% 4.01
Portland Timbers to lead by 2 at any time 19.4% 17.6% 5.67
FC Dallas to lead by 3 at any time 18.7% 17.6% 5.67
Portland Timbers to lead by 3 at any time 6.5% 7.4% 13.51
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas most corners 45.5% 46.8% 2.14
Portland Timbers most corners 44.2% 43.6% 2.29
Corners level 10.3% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 82.3% 82.1% 83.2% 0.99× 1.22
2-6 goals 80.3% 82.1% 75.5% 1.09× 1.22
2-5 goals 72.6% 72.2% 68.5% 1.05× 1.39
1-4 goals 69.0% 68.2% 73.1% 0.93× 1.47
3-6 goals 61.5% 62.7% 55.9% 1.12× 1.60
2-4 goals 59.3% 58.9% 58.4% 1.01× 1.70
3-5 goals 53.8% 52.9% 48.9% 1.08× 1.89
1-3 goals 50.1% 52.9% 57.2% 0.93× 1.89
2-3 goals 40.4% 43.6% 42.5% 1.02× 2.30
3-4 goals 40.5% 43.6% 38.8% 1.12× 2.30
4-6 goals 40.0% 39.0% 33.1% 1.18× 2.56
4-5 goals 32.2% 34.7% 26.1% 1.33× 2.88
1-2 goals 28.5% 28.5% 34.4% 0.83× 3.51
5-6 goals 21.1% 23.7% 17.2% 1.38× 4.22
7+ goals 6.6% 8.9% 4.1% 2.16× 11.22
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas never behind 48.4% 54.6% 1.83
Portland Timbers never behind 27.9% 31.4% 3.18
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 50.8% 50.1% 49.8% 1.00× 2.00
Odd number of goals 49.2% 49.9% 50.2% 1.00× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.8% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 47.2% 48.4% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.1% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.9% 48.4% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.6% 96.0% 94.2% 1.02× 1.04
Over 1.5 goals 86.9% 87.8% 79.5% 1.10× 1.14
Under 5.5 goals 85.6% 87.8% 88.9% 0.99× 1.14
Under 4.5 goals 72.4% 72.4% 78.8% 0.92× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 68.1% 67.7% 59.9% 1.13× 1.48
Under 3.5 goals 53.4% 51.8% 62.9% 0.82× 1.93
Over 3.5 goals 46.6% 48.2% 37.1% 1.30× 2.08
Under 2.5 goals 31.9% 32.3% 40.1% 0.81× 3.09
Over 4.5 goals 27.6% 27.6% 21.2% 1.30× 3.62
Over 5.5 goals 14.4% 12.2% 11.1% 1.10× 8.21
Under 1.5 goals 13.1% 12.2% 20.5% 0.59× 8.21
Under 0.5 goals 3.4% 4.0% 5.8% 0.68× 25.20
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 92.9% 92.0% 95.6% 0.96× 1.09
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 83.9% 81.5% 74.5% 1.09× 1.23
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 83.4% 81.5% 87.6% 0.93× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 65.9% 67.0% 74.8% 0.90× 1.49
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 59.4% 58.2% 48.1% 1.21× 1.72
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 40.7% 41.8% 51.9% 0.81× 2.39
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 34.1% 33.0% 25.2% 1.31× 3.04
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 16.6% 18.5% 12.4% 1.50× 5.40
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 16.1% 18.5% 25.5% 0.73× 5.40
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 7.1% 8.0% 4.4% 1.80× 12.51
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 81.7% 83.1% 1.20
Over 0.5 in 1st half 76.9% 77.9% 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 56.9% 59.6% 1.68
Over 1.5 in 1st half 43.1% 40.4% 2.48
Under 0.5 in 1st half 23.1% 22.1% 4.53
Over 2.5 in 1st half 18.3% 16.9% 5.92
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 86.9% 85.1% 1.18
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 66.5% 66.8% 1.50
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 60.7% 58.5% 1.71
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 39.3% 41.5% 2.41
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 33.5% 33.2% 3.01
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 13.1% 14.9% 6.72
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers not to score in both halves 74.5% 72.6% 1.38
FC Dallas not to score in both halves 59.3% 60.2% 1.66
FC Dallas to score in both halves 40.7% 39.8% 2.51
Portland Timbers to score in both halves 25.5% 27.4% 3.65
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 67.2% 64.4% 61.1% 1.06× 1.55
Only FC Dallas scores 20.1% 21.5% 21.1% 1.02× 4.64
Only Portland Timbers scores 9.3% 7.1% 12.3% 0.58× 14.08
Neither team scores 3.4% 4.1% 5.8% 0.69× 24.69
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.6% 22.3% 22.9% 0.97× 4.49
Exactly 4 goals 18.9% 17.6% 16.0% 1.10× 5.68
Exactly 2 goals 18.8% 17.6% 19.7% 0.89× 5.68
6 or more goals 14.4% 12.3% 11.1% 1.11× 8.14
Exactly 5 goals 13.3% 12.3% 10.2% 1.20× 8.14
Exactly 1 goals 9.7% 7.8% 14.8% 0.53× 12.88
Exactly 0 goals 3.4% 4.0% 5.8% 0.69× 24.73
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 33.7% 34.4% 2.91
2 goals in 1st half 24.9% 21.6% 4.62
No goals in 1st half 23.1% 21.6% 4.63
3+ goals in 1st half 18.3% 18.8% 5.31
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 60.7% 55.0% 1.82
1 goal in 2nd half 26.2% 27.1% 3.69
No goals in 2nd half 13.1% 14.0% 7.14
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers not to win both halves 93.9% 92.6% 1.08
FC Dallas not to win both halves 82.5% 81.9% 1.22
FC Dallas to win both halves 17.5% 18.1% 5.53
Portland Timbers to win both halves 6.1% 7.4% 13.58
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dallas to win either half 66.0% 68.7% 1.46
Portland Timbers to win neither half 56.6% 58.1% 1.72
Portland Timbers to win either half 43.4% 41.9% 2.39
FC Dallas to win neither half 34.0% 31.3% 3.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Timbers not to win to nil 90.7% 92.3% 87.7% 1.05× 1.08
FC Dallas not to win to nil 79.9% 78.4% 78.9% 0.99× 1.28
FC Dallas to win to nil 20.1% 21.6% 21.1% 1.02× 4.63
Portland Timbers to win to nil 9.3% 7.7% 12.3% 0.62× 13.06
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 22.0% 23.4% 24.9% 0.94× 4.27
FC Dallas by 1 20.9% 23.4% 22.2% 1.05× 4.27
FC Dallas by 2 15.6% 17.2% 12.8% 1.34× 5.80
Portland Timbers by 1 14.6% 11.8% 16.8% 0.70× 8.44
FC Dallas by 3+ 14.9% 11.8% 10.5% 1.12× 8.44
Portland Timbers by 2 7.7% 7.3% 8.7% 0.83× 13.77
Portland Timbers by 3+ 4.3% 3.0% 4.6% 0.65× 33.44
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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