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FC Den Bosch v VVV-Venlo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 20 November 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
FC Den Bosch win
49.2%
model 47.0%
Draw
23.0%
model 23.0%
VVV-Venlo win
27.8%
model 29.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.6%
  2. 2-1 9.3%
  3. 1-0 8.8%
  4. 1-2 7.2%
  5. 2-0 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.557.8% Under 2.542.2%
BTTS yes59.2% BTTS no40.8%
FC Den Bosch 1+81.7% FC Den Bosch 2+50.6%
VVV-Venlo 1+72.9% VVV-Venlo 2+37.6%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.31. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
58/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
1-3 goals
Multi goal · usually 55%
62.1% fair odds 1.61
moderate signal · 3852 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Over 7.5 corners
Corners O/U
83.0% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 4336 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out FC Den Bosch.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Den Bosch have an estimated 49.2% win probability, against 27.8% for VVV-Venlo and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.70 for FC Den Bosch and 1.31 for VVV-Venlo.

Why FC Den Bosch

Nothing in the data singles out FC Den Bosch.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why VVV-Venlo can win

VVV-Venlo carry the stronger rating, 1459 Elo against 1400. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Den Bosch, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for VVV-Venlo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Den Bosch: 50% possession, 17.8 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. VVV-Venlo: 46% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Den Bosch's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

FC Den Bosch are the model's most likely outcome at 49.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%. Confidence 58/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.70–1.31 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.51–1.31 1-1 11% 53% 56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to win 42.5% 42.9% 44.5% 0.97× 2.33
VVV-Venlo to win 33.3% 30.4% 33.5% 0.91× 3.29
Draw 24.3% 24.5% 22.1% 1.11× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch & not both score 21.5% 21.8% 22.6% 0.96× 4.59
FC Den Bosch & both teams score 21.0% 21.8% 22.0% 0.99× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 18.7% 18.0% 17.4% 1.03× 5.56
VVV-Venlo & both teams score 16.8% 18.0% 19.7% 0.91× 5.57
VVV-Venlo & not both score 16.5% 18.0% 14.0% 1.28× 5.57
Draw & not both score 5.6% 8.3% 4.8% 1.74× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch & over 1.5 33.0% 30.8% 37.0% 0.83× 3.25
FC Den Bosch & under 3.5 28.6% 26.1% 25.7% 1.01× 3.84
FC Den Bosch & over 2.5 26.2% 26.0% 30.8% 0.84× 3.84
VVV-Venlo & over 1.5 25.1% 26.0% 27.4% 0.95× 3.84
VVV-Venlo & under 3.5 23.2% 21.6% 19.8% 1.09× 4.63
VVV-Venlo & over 2.5 19.9% 18.0% 23.7% 0.76× 5.55
Draw & over 1.5 18.7% 18.0% 17.4% 1.03× 5.55
Draw & under 2.5 17.0% 18.0% 14.1% 1.27× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 17.0% 18.0% 14.1% 1.27× 5.56
FC Den Bosch & under 2.5 16.3% 18.0% 13.8% 1.31× 5.56
FC Den Bosch & over 3.5 13.9% 12.8% 18.9% 0.68× 7.79
VVV-Venlo & under 2.5 13.3% 12.8% 10.0% 1.29× 7.79
VVV-Venlo & over 3.5 10.0% 12.8% 13.9% 0.92× 7.79
FC Den Bosch & under 1.5 9.4% 7.9% 7.6% 1.04× 12.62
Draw & over 2.5 7.3% 7.9% 8.1% 0.98× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 7.3% 7.9% 8.1% 0.98× 12.63
VVV-Venlo & under 1.5 8.2% 7.9% 6.3% 1.26× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 5.6% 7.9% 4.8% 1.65× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (1UP) 58.9% 58.0% — — 1.72
VVV-Venlo (1UP) 51.0% 52.3% — — 1.91
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (2UP) 42.5% 47.1% — — 2.13
VVV-Venlo (2UP) 33.3% 30.3% — — 3.30
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to win 2nd half 35.0% 34.0% — — 2.94
2nd half drawn 34.4% 34.0% — — 2.94
VVV-Venlo to win 2nd half 30.6% 34.0% — — 2.95
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo under 1.5 in 2nd half 81.5% 84.0% — — 1.19
VVV-Venlo over 0.5 in 2nd half 54.3% 52.6% — — 1.90
VVV-Venlo under 0.5 in 2nd half 45.7% 47.4% — — 2.11
VVV-Venlo over 1.5 in 2nd half 18.5% 16.0% — — 6.27
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.7% 75.3% — — 1.33
FC Den Bosch over 0.5 in 2nd half 57.7% 58.2% — — 1.72
FC Den Bosch under 0.5 in 2nd half 42.3% 41.8% — — 2.39
FC Den Bosch over 1.5 in 2nd half 21.3% 24.7% — — 4.04
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo (+2.5) 91.9% 92.1% 88.2% 1.04× 1.09
VVV-Venlo (+1.5) 79.3% 78.5% 75.6% 1.04× 1.27
FC Den Bosch (+0.5) 66.7% 68.7% 66.5% 1.03× 1.46
VVV-Venlo (+0.5) 57.5% 57.1% 55.5% 1.03× 1.75
FC Den Bosch (-0.5) 42.5% 42.9% 44.5% 0.97× 2.33
VVV-Venlo (-0.5) 33.3% 31.3% 33.5% 0.93× 3.19
FC Den Bosch (-1.5) 20.7% 21.5% 24.4% 0.88× 4.65
FC Den Bosch (-2.5) 8.1% 7.9% 11.8% 0.67× 12.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo to concede 77.9% 78.8% 81.3% 0.97× 1.27
VVV-Venlo clean sheet 22.1% 21.2% 18.7% 1.14× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo clean sheet in 1st half 52.2% 50.9% — — 1.97
VVV-Venlo to concede in 1st half 47.8% 49.1% — — 2.04
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo to concede in 2nd half 57.7% 57.4% — — 1.74
VVV-Venlo clean sheet in 2nd half 42.3% 42.6% — — 2.35
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo over 2.5 corners 82.6% 81.4% — — 1.23
VVV-Venlo under 6.5 corners 75.0% 71.6% — — 1.40
VVV-Venlo over 3.5 corners 68.2% 67.6% — — 1.48
VVV-Venlo under 5.5 corners 62.7% 61.7% — — 1.62
VVV-Venlo over 4.5 corners 52.3% 53.1% — — 1.88
VVV-Venlo under 4.5 corners 47.7% 46.9% — — 2.13
VVV-Venlo over 5.5 corners 37.3% 38.3% — — 2.61
VVV-Venlo under 3.5 corners 31.8% 32.4% — — 3.09
VVV-Venlo over 6.5 corners 25.0% 28.4% — — 3.53
VVV-Venlo under 2.5 corners 17.4% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo under 3.5 goals 95.6% 97.5% 93.0% 1.05× 1.03
VVV-Venlo under 2.5 goals 85.6% 87.8% 81.5% 1.08× 1.14
VVV-Venlo over 0.5 goals 72.9% 71.9% 72.7% 0.99× 1.39
VVV-Venlo under 1.5 goals 62.5% 63.2% 58.0% 1.09× 1.58
VVV-Venlo over 1.5 goals 37.5% 36.8% 42.0% 0.88× 2.72
VVV-Venlo under 0.5 goals 27.1% 28.2% 27.3% 1.03× 3.55
VVV-Venlo over 2.5 goals 14.4% 12.2% 18.6% 0.66× 8.19
VVV-Venlo over 3.5 goals 4.4% 2.5% 7.0% 0.36× 39.75
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo under 1.5 in 1st half 90.3% 93.8% — — 1.07
VVV-Venlo under 0.5 in 1st half 59.3% 62.4% — — 1.60
VVV-Venlo over 0.5 in 1st half 40.7% 37.6% — — 2.66
VVV-Venlo over 1.5 in 1st half 9.7% 6.2% — — 16.26
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo scores equally in both 39.4% 37.4% — — 2.67
VVV-Venlo scores more in 2nd half 38.3% 37.4% — — 2.68
VVV-Venlo scores more in 1st half 22.3% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (away no bet) 63.7% 61.9% 66.8% 0.93× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 36.3% 38.1% 33.2% 1.15× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo even goals 53.7% 52.6% 57.0% 0.92× 1.90
VVV-Venlo odd goals 46.3% 47.4% 43.0% 1.10× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.0% 83.2% — — 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.0% 16.8% — — 5.96
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.4% 67.7% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.6% 32.3% — — 3.10
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 57.2% 54.9% — — 1.82
FC Den Bosch to score 2+ in a row 35.7% 36.4% — — 2.74
VVV-Venlo to score 2+ in a row 28.5% 25.0% — — 4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.3% 19.5% — — 5.13
FC Den Bosch to score 3+ in a row 12.3% 12.1% — — 8.23
VVV-Venlo to score 3+ in a row 8.4% 5.5% — — 18.10
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch corners (+3.5) 91.0% 89.6% — — 1.12
FC Den Bosch corners (+2.5) 86.2% 84.5% — — 1.18
FC Den Bosch corners (+1.5) 79.8% 74.8% — — 1.34
VVV-Venlo corners (+3.5) 66.5% 65.9% — — 1.52
VVV-Venlo corners (+2.5) 57.1% 57.2% — — 1.75
FC Den Bosch corners (-1.5) 52.9% 52.4% — — 1.91
VVV-Venlo corners (+1.5) 47.1% 47.6% — — 2.10
FC Den Bosch corners (-2.5) 42.9% 42.8% — — 2.33
FC Den Bosch corners (-3.5) 33.5% 34.1% — — 2.93
VVV-Venlo corners (-1.5) 20.2% 25.2% — — 3.97
VVV-Venlo corners (-2.5) 13.8% 15.5% — — 6.45
VVV-Venlo corners (-3.5) 9.0% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 49.3% 41.8% — — 2.40
9-11 corners 28.3% 31.2% — — 3.21
0-8 corners 22.4% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 85.2% 83.1% — — 1.20
Over 8.5 corners 77.6% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 68.8% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 12.5 corners 60.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 10.5 corners 59.2% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 11.5 corners 50.7% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 11.5 corners 49.3% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 10.5 corners 40.8% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 12.5 corners 39.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 9.5 corners 31.2% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 8.5 corners 22.4% 23.4% — — 4.27
Under 7.5 corners 14.8% 16.9% — — 5.90
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.4% 11.5% 9.5% 1.21× 8.72
1-0 9.4% 7.4% 7.6% 0.97× 13.51
2-1 8.9% 7.4% 8.1% 0.91× 13.51
0-1 8.2% 7.4% 6.3% 1.18× 13.51
1-2 7.7% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.51
2-0 6.8% 7.4% 6.3% 1.18× 13.51
0-0 5.6% 7.4% 4.8% 1.54× 13.51
0-2 5.1% 7.4% 3.8% 1.94× 13.51
2-2 5.8% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
0-3 2.2% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.31
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.32
1-3 3.4% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.30
1-4 1.1% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
2-3 2.5% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.30
2-4 0.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.31
3-0 3.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.30
3-1 4.5% 1.7% 4.9% 0.35× 58.29
3-2 2.9% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.30
3-3 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.31
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.40× 58.32
4-0 1.3% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.31
4-1 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.31
4-2 1.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.31
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.49× 58.32
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 13.96× 58.32
Any other score 3.0% 1.7% 4.7% 0.37× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (2nd half DNB) 53.3% 54.7% — — 1.83
VVV-Venlo (2nd half DNB) 46.7% 45.3% — — 2.21
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch leading at HT (DNB) 57.0% 55.5% — — 1.80
VVV-Venlo leading at HT (DNB) 43.0% 44.5% — — 2.25
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch or VVV-Venlo (12) 75.7% 75.5% 77.9% 0.97× 1.32
FC Den Bosch or draw (1X) 66.7% 69.6% 66.5% 1.05× 1.44
VVV-Venlo or draw (X2) 57.5% 57.1% 55.5% 1.03× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch or draw at HT 75.2% 79.5% — — 1.26
VVV-Venlo or draw at HT 67.1% 67.2% — — 1.49
FC Den Bosch or VVV-Venlo at HT 57.7% 57.4% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch or draw (1UP) 66.7% 76.3% — — 1.31
VVV-Venlo or draw (1UP) 57.5% 63.0% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch or draw in 2nd half 69.4% 66.0% — — 1.51
FC Den Bosch or VVV-Venlo in 2nd half 65.6% 66.0% — — 1.52
VVV-Venlo or draw in 2nd half 65.0% 66.0% — — 1.52
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.6% 61.4% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 37.4% 38.6% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (DNB) 56.1% 58.1% 57.0% 1.02× 1.72
VVV-Venlo (DNB) 43.9% 41.9% 43.0% 0.98× 2.38
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to score first 50.6% 53.2% — — 1.88
VVV-Venlo to score first 43.8% 41.7% — — 2.40
No goal scored 5.6% 7.5% — — 13.31
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 56.4% 55.0% 58.8% 0.93× 1.82
Not both teams to score 43.6% 45.0% 41.2% 1.09× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 45.0% 41.6% 49.5% 0.84× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 35.2% 38.4% 28.3% 1.36× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 11.4% 12.4% 9.5% 1.31× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.4% 8.3% 13.0% 0.64× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 83.3% 82.6% 79.0% 1.05× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 16.7% 17.4% 21.0% 0.83× 5.76
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 68.8% 67.3% — — 1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half 31.2% 32.7% — — 3.06
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 55.5% 60.0% — — 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 25.1% 26.8% — — 3.73
Both score 1st half only 13.3% 10.8% — — 9.29
Both score in both halves 6.1% 6.8% — — 14.80
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.6% 83.3% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 19.4% 16.7% — — 6.00
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 55.5% 56.9% — — 1.76
A half without a goal 44.5% 43.1% — — 2.32
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.6% 47.2% 41.0% 1.15× 2.12
4-6 goals 28.7% 26.6% 37.6% 0.71× 3.76
0-1 goals 23.2% 22.9% 18.4% 1.24× 4.36
7+ goals 2.5% 1.8% 3.2% 0.58× 54.31
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo to score exactly 1 35.4% 35.9% 30.8% 1.16× 2.79
VVV-Venlo to score exactly 0 27.1% 27.4% 27.3% 1.01× 3.65
VVV-Venlo to score exactly 2 23.1% 22.3% 23.6% 0.94× 4.49
VVV-Venlo to score 3+ 14.4% 12.9% 18.6% 0.70× 7.75
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 1 33.4% 32.6% 30.2% 1.08× 3.07
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 2 25.2% 26.5% 25.8% 1.03× 3.77
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 0 22.1% 23.3% 18.7% 1.25× 4.29
FC Den Bosch to score 3+ 19.4% 18.8% 25.6% 0.74× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.3% 42.6% — — 2.35
FC Den Bosch leading at HT 32.9% 32.8% — — 3.05
VVV-Venlo leading at HT 24.8% 20.5% — — 4.88
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch -1: 2 57.5% 56.8% — — 1.76
FC Den Bosch -1: X 21.8% 23.5% — — 4.25
FC Den Bosch -1: 1 20.7% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo (0:1) 57.5% 55.8% 55.5% 1.01× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 21.8% 24.2% 20.1% 1.20× 4.13
FC Den Bosch (0:1) 20.7% 24.2% 24.4% 0.99× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo (0:2) 79.3% 79.4% 75.6% 1.05× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 12.6% 11.0% 12.8% 0.86× 9.10
FC Den Bosch (0:2) 8.1% 7.7% 11.8% 0.65× 13.05
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo (0:3) 91.9% 92.7% 88.2% 1.05× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.5% 5.8% 5.7% 1.02× 17.27
FC Den Bosch (0:3) 2.6% 2.4% 6.3% 0.38× 42.03
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo (0:4) 97.4% 98.1% 93.7% 1.05× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.9% 1.2% 4.3% 0.28× 81.69
FC Den Bosch (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 2.1% 0.59× 81.82
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (1:0) 66.7% 70.1% 66.5% 1.06× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 18.9% 17.1% 18.2% 0.94× 5.85
VVV-Venlo (1:0) 14.4% 12.7% 15.5% 0.82× 7.86
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (2:0) 85.6% 88.5% 84.5% 1.05× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 9.4% 6.4% 8.8% 0.72× 15.63
VVV-Venlo (2:0) 4.9% 2.3% 6.8% 0.34× 43.62
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.7% 48.7% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.5% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 23.8% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to concede 72.9% 73.0% 72.7% 1.00× 1.37
FC Den Bosch clean sheet 27.1% 27.0% 27.3% 0.99× 3.71
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch clean sheet in 1st half 59.3% 62.4% — — 1.60
FC Den Bosch to concede in 1st half 40.7% 37.6% — — 2.66
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to concede in 2nd half 54.3% 52.6% — — 1.90
FC Den Bosch clean sheet in 2nd half 45.7% 47.4% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch over 2.5 corners 93.3% 89.2% — — 1.12
FC Den Bosch over 3.5 corners 85.6% 86.2% — — 1.16
FC Den Bosch over 4.5 corners 75.0% 71.9% — — 1.39
FC Den Bosch over 5.5 corners 62.5% 62.3% — — 1.61
FC Den Bosch under 6.5 corners 50.3% 52.6% — — 1.90
FC Den Bosch over 6.5 corners 49.7% 47.4% — — 2.11
FC Den Bosch under 5.5 corners 37.5% 37.7% — — 2.65
FC Den Bosch under 4.5 corners 25.0% 28.1% — — 3.56
FC Den Bosch under 3.5 corners 14.4% 13.8% — — 7.25
FC Den Bosch under 2.5 corners 6.7% 10.8% — — 9.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch under 3.5 goals 93.3% 92.2% 89.9% 1.03× 1.08
FC Den Bosch under 2.5 goals 80.6% 82.2% 74.4% 1.10× 1.22
FC Den Bosch over 0.5 goals 77.9% 77.8% 81.3% 0.96× 1.29
FC Den Bosch under 1.5 goals 55.5% 58.6% 48.8% 1.20× 1.71
FC Den Bosch over 1.5 goals 44.5% 41.4% 51.2% 0.81× 2.42
FC Den Bosch under 0.5 goals 22.1% 22.2% 18.7% 1.19× 4.50
FC Den Bosch over 2.5 goals 19.4% 17.8% 25.6% 0.70× 5.61
FC Den Bosch over 3.5 goals 6.7% 7.8% 10.1% 0.77× 12.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch under 1.5 in 1st half 86.2% 90.1% — — 1.11
FC Den Bosch under 0.5 in 1st half 52.2% 50.7% — — 1.97
FC Den Bosch over 0.5 in 1st half 47.8% 49.3% — — 2.03
FC Den Bosch over 1.5 in 1st half 13.8% 9.9% — — 10.11
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch scores more in 2nd half 38.0% 38.1% — — 2.62
FC Den Bosch scores equally in both 36.3% 38.1% — — 2.63
FC Den Bosch scores more in 1st half 25.7% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo (home no bet) 57.8% 56.4% 60.3% 0.94× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 42.2% 43.6% 39.7% 1.10× 2.29
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch even goals 52.4% 50.7% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
FC Den Bosch odd goals 47.6% 49.3% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.9% 33.5% — — 2.99
HT 1-0 20.2% 24.3% — — 4.12
HT 0-1 16.3% 18.6% — — 5.39
HT 1-1 10.4% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 2-0 6.5% 6.9% — — 14.56
HT 0-2 4.2% 2.4% — — 42.13
Any other HT score 4.4% 2.4% — — 42.12
HT 2-1 3.4% 2.4% — — 42.18
HT 1-2 2.7% 2.4% — — 42.22
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.4% — — 42.34
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT 25.1% 27.2% — — 3.68
VVV-Venlo at HT / VVV-Venlo at FT 17.7% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT 15.0% 16.7% — — 5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.1% 12.7% — — 7.88
Draw at HT / VVV-Venlo at FT 13.2% 12.7% — — 7.89
FC Den Bosch at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.0% — — 16.54
VVV-Venlo at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% — — 28.85
FC Den Bosch at HT / VVV-Venlo at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.93
VVV-Venlo at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT 2.4% 3.5% — — 28.93
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to score last 50.6% 52.0% — — 1.92
VVV-Venlo to score last 43.8% 40.1% — — 2.49
No goal scored 5.6% 7.5% — — 13.31
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.4% 92.6% — — 1.08
FC Den Bosch to lead by 1 at any time 58.9% 54.9% — — 1.82
VVV-Venlo to lead by 1 at any time 51.0% 50.6% — — 1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 47.5% 44.3% — — 2.26
FC Den Bosch to lead by 2 at any time 27.3% 25.3% — — 3.96
VVV-Venlo to lead by 2 at any time 20.4% 19.5% — — 5.13
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.9% 14.8% — — 6.75
FC Den Bosch to lead by 3 at any time 10.2% 10.6% — — 9.47
VVV-Venlo to lead by 3 at any time 6.6% 6.6% — — 15.08
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch most corners 62.7% 60.6% — — 1.65
VVV-Venlo most corners 28.1% 31.1% — — 3.21
Corners level 9.2% 8.3% — — 11.98
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.8% 87.4% 86.4% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.9% 78.7% 74.1% 1.06× 1.27
2-6 goals 74.3% 72.3% 78.5% 0.92× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.1% 72.3% 72.7% 0.99× 1.38
1-3 goals 63.3% 63.3% 54.7% 1.16× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.3% 63.3% 60.4% 1.05× 1.58
3-6 goals 50.9% 53.2% 59.3% 0.90× 1.88
3-5 goals 46.8% 48.4% 53.6% 0.90× 2.06
2-3 goals 45.6% 48.4% 41.0% 1.18× 2.06
1-2 goals 41.0% 43.6% 32.9% 1.32× 2.29
3-4 goals 38.0% 39.2% 41.3% 0.95× 2.55
4-6 goals 28.7% 30.2% 37.6% 0.80× 3.31
4-5 goals 24.5% 24.5% 31.8% 0.77× 4.09
5-6 goals 13.0% 14.8% 18.2% 0.81× 6.75
7+ goals 2.5% 2.6% 3.2% 0.80× 39.16
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch never behind 43.5% 48.8% — — 2.05
VVV-Venlo never behind 35.5% 44.1% — — 2.27
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.4% 50.9% 49.6% 1.03× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.6% 49.1% 50.4% 0.97× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.7% 51.7% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.3% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.6% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.4% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.4% 92.3% 95.2% 0.97× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 93.4% 92.3% 91.0% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 84.5% 82.3% 78.7% 1.05× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 76.8% 77.3% 81.6% 0.95× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 68.8% 66.3% 59.3% 1.12× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 53.4% 52.5% 62.4% 0.84× 1.90
Under 2.5 goals 46.6% 47.5% 37.6% 1.26× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 31.2% 33.7% 40.7% 0.83× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 23.2% 22.7% 18.4% 1.23× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 15.5% 17.7% 21.3% 0.83× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 6.6% 7.7% 9.0% 0.86× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 5.6% 7.7% 4.8% 1.61× 12.94
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.4% 97.2% 96.6% 1.01× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.7% 92.4% 89.8% 1.03× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 81.6% 81.1% 73.6% 1.10× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 69.7% 67.5% 77.2% 0.87× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 59.9% 55.8% 48.0% 1.16× 1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 40.1% 44.2% 52.0% 0.85× 2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 30.3% 32.5% 22.8% 1.42× 3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 18.4% 18.9% 26.4% 0.72× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.3% 7.6% 10.2% 0.74× 13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.6% 2.8% 3.4% 0.83× 35.61
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.6% 89.1% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.1% 68.6% — — 1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.4% 68.5% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.6% 31.5% — — 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.9% 31.4% — — 3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.4% 10.9% — — 9.13
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.8% 82.9% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.2% 79.5% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.2% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 48.8% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.8% 20.5% — — 4.88
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.2% 17.1% — — 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo not to score in both halves 77.9% 78.4% — — 1.28
FC Den Bosch not to score in both halves 72.4% 73.9% — — 1.35
FC Den Bosch to score in both halves 27.6% 26.1% — — 3.83
VVV-Venlo to score in both halves 22.1% 21.6% — — 4.63
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 56.4% 58.6% 58.8% 1.00× 1.71
Only FC Den Bosch scores 21.5% 22.2% 22.6% 0.98× 4.50
Only VVV-Venlo scores 16.5% 16.0% 14.0% 1.14× 6.24
Neither team scores 5.6% 7.1% 4.8% 1.49× 14.02
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.3% 22.6% 19.3% 1.17× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 21.9% 1.03× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 17.7% 17.5% 13.8% 1.27× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.7% 17.5% 19.5% 0.89× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 8.8% 7.6% 12.4% 0.61× 13.13
6 or more goals 6.6% 7.6% 9.0% 0.85× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 5.6% 7.6% 4.8% 1.59× 13.14
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.4% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 30.9% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 21.2% 21.4% — — 4.68
3+ goals in 1st half 11.4% 10.9% — — 9.22
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 48.8% 44.9% — — 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 32.0% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 19.2% 16.8% — — 5.95
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo not to win both halves 92.5% 94.2% — — 1.06
FC Den Bosch not to win both halves 88.6% 88.0% — — 1.14
FC Den Bosch to win both halves 11.4% 12.0% — — 8.33
VVV-Venlo to win both halves 7.5% 5.8% — — 17.11
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to win either half 56.4% 59.0% — — 1.70
VVV-Venlo to win neither half 52.1% 54.3% — — 1.84
VVV-Venlo to win either half 47.9% 45.7% — — 2.19
FC Den Bosch to win neither half 43.6% 41.0% — — 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VVV-Venlo not to win to nil 83.5% 83.1% 86.0% 0.97× 1.20
FC Den Bosch not to win to nil 78.5% 78.1% 77.4% 1.01× 1.28
FC Den Bosch to win to nil 21.5% 21.9% 22.6% 0.97× 4.58
VVV-Venlo to win to nil 16.5% 16.9% 14.0% 1.21× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.3% 24.1% 22.1% 1.09× 4.15
FC Den Bosch by 1 21.8% 24.1% 20.1% 1.20× 4.15
VVV-Venlo by 1 18.9% 17.0% 18.2% 0.94× 5.87
FC Den Bosch by 2 12.6% 11.8% 12.8% 0.92× 8.51
VVV-Venlo by 2 9.4% 7.2% 8.8% 0.81× 13.90
FC Den Bosch by 3+ 8.1% 7.2% 11.8% 0.61× 13.91
VVV-Venlo by 3+ 4.9% 2.7% 6.8% 0.40× 36.82
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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