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FC Dordrecht v FC Den Bosch — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 18 December 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
FC Dordrecht win
41.7%
model 41.7%
Draw
22.0%
model 22.4%
FC Den Bosch win
36.3%
model 35.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 9.8%
  2. 2-1 8.7%
  3. 1-2 7.9%
  4. 1-0 6.9%
  5. 2-2 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.563.2% Under 2.536.8%
BTTS yes64.2% BTTS no35.8%
FC Dordrecht 1+81.7% FC Dordrecht 2+50.6%
FC Den Bosch 1+79.0% FC Den Bosch 2+46.2%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.56. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
56/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
93%
★ Best pick
2-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 79%
78.8% fair odds 1.27
moderate signal · 2624 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
84.0% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out FC Dordrecht.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Dordrecht have an estimated 41.7% win probability, against 36.3% for FC Den Bosch and 22.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.70 for FC Dordrecht and 1.56 for FC Den Bosch.

Why FC Dordrecht

Nothing in the data singles out FC Dordrecht.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.70 to 1.56. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why FC Den Bosch can win

Nothing in the data singles out FC Den Bosch.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Dordrecht, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for FC Den Bosch, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Dordrecht: 53% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Den Bosch: 50% possession, 17.8 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

FC Dordrecht are the model's most likely outcome at 41.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.8%. Confidence 56/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.70–1.56 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.96–1.51 2-1 9% 67% 67%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht to win 48.4% 47.4% 44.5% 1.07× 2.11
FC Den Bosch to win 30.3% 30.4% 33.5% 0.91× 3.29
Draw 21.2% 24.4% 22.1% 1.11× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht & both teams score 29.2% 25.2% 22.0% 1.15× 3.97
FC Dordrecht & not both score 19.2% 18.0% 22.6% 0.80× 5.56
FC Den Bosch & both teams score 19.0% 18.0% 19.7% 0.91× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 18.4% 18.0% 17.4% 1.03× 5.56
FC Den Bosch & not both score 11.3% 13.3% 14.0% 0.95× 7.54
Draw & not both score 2.8% 4.9% 4.8% 1.01× 20.61
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht & over 1.5 42.0% 40.2% 37.0% 1.09× 2.49
FC Dordrecht & over 2.5 36.1% 34.9% 30.8% 1.13× 2.87
FC Dordrecht & under 3.5 25.2% 26.1% 25.7% 1.01× 3.84
FC Den Bosch & over 1.5 25.3% 26.1% 27.4% 0.95× 3.84
FC Dordrecht & over 3.5 23.2% 21.6% 18.9% 1.14× 4.63
FC Den Bosch & over 2.5 21.7% 21.6% 23.7% 0.91× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.4% 18.0% 17.4% 1.03× 5.56
FC Den Bosch & under 3.5 17.4% 18.0% 19.8% 0.91× 5.56
FC Dordrecht & under 2.5 12.4% 12.8% 13.8% 0.93× 7.79
FC Den Bosch & over 3.5 13.0% 12.8% 13.9% 0.92× 7.79
Draw & under 2.5 11.7% 12.8% 14.1% 0.91× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 11.7% 12.8% 14.1% 0.91× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 9.5% 7.9% 8.1% 0.98× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 9.5% 7.9% 8.1% 0.98× 12.63
FC Den Bosch & under 2.5 8.6% 7.9% 10.0% 0.80× 12.63
FC Dordrecht & under 1.5 6.4% 7.9% 7.6% 1.04× 12.63
FC Den Bosch & under 1.5 5.0% 7.9% 6.3% 1.26× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 2.8% 4.8% 4.8% 1.00× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht (1UP) 66.3% 70.1% — — 1.43
FC Den Bosch (1UP) 51.3% 52.5% — — 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht (2UP) 48.4% 50.2% — — 1.99
FC Den Bosch (2UP) 30.3% 30.3% — — 3.30
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht to win 2nd half 40.3% 41.9% — — 2.39
2nd half drawn 30.2% 34.3% — — 2.92
FC Den Bosch to win 2nd half 29.5% 25.9% — — 3.86
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch under 1.5 in 2nd half 76.9% 78.9% — — 1.27
FC Den Bosch over 0.5 in 2nd half 59.7% 54.7% — — 1.83
FC Den Bosch under 0.5 in 2nd half 40.3% 45.3% — — 2.21
FC Den Bosch over 1.5 in 2nd half 23.1% 21.1% — — 4.74
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht under 1.5 in 2nd half 69.3% 70.7% — — 1.41
FC Dordrecht over 0.5 in 2nd half 67.2% 70.6% — — 1.42
FC Dordrecht under 0.5 in 2nd half 32.8% 29.4% — — 3.40
FC Dordrecht over 1.5 in 2nd half 30.7% 29.3% — — 3.42
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (+2.5) 87.2% 88.5% 88.2% 1.00× 1.13
FC Den Bosch (+1.5) 72.7% 73.7% 75.6% 0.97× 1.36
FC Dordrecht (+0.5) 69.7% 68.7% 66.5% 1.03× 1.46
FC Den Bosch (+0.5) 51.6% 52.4% 55.5% 0.94× 1.91
FC Dordrecht (-0.5) 48.4% 47.6% 44.5% 1.07× 2.10
FC Den Bosch (-0.5) 30.3% 31.3% 33.5% 0.93× 3.19
FC Dordrecht (-1.5) 27.3% 26.3% 24.4% 1.08× 3.80
FC Dordrecht (-2.5) 12.8% 11.5% 11.8% 0.98× 8.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to concede 85.9% 86.3% 81.3% 1.06× 1.16
FC Den Bosch clean sheet 14.1% 13.7% 18.7% 0.74× 7.28
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to concede in 1st half 56.9% 57.0% — — 1.75
FC Den Bosch clean sheet in 1st half 43.1% 43.0% — — 2.33
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to concede in 2nd half 67.2% 65.7% — — 1.52
FC Den Bosch clean sheet in 2nd half 32.8% 34.3% — — 2.92
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch over 2.5 corners 83.4% 81.4% — — 1.23
FC Den Bosch under 6.5 corners 73.7% 71.6% — — 1.40
FC Den Bosch over 3.5 corners 69.4% 67.6% — — 1.48
FC Den Bosch under 5.5 corners 61.3% 61.8% — — 1.62
FC Den Bosch over 4.5 corners 53.7% 53.1% — — 1.89
FC Den Bosch under 4.5 corners 46.3% 46.9% — — 2.13
FC Den Bosch over 5.5 corners 38.7% 38.2% — — 2.62
FC Den Bosch under 3.5 corners 30.6% 32.4% — — 3.09
FC Den Bosch over 6.5 corners 26.3% 28.4% — — 3.52
FC Den Bosch under 2.5 corners 16.6% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch under 3.5 goals 93.3% 92.3% 93.0% 0.99× 1.08
FC Den Bosch under 2.5 goals 80.5% 81.4% 81.5% 1.00× 1.23
FC Den Bosch over 0.5 goals 78.0% 76.3% 72.7% 1.05× 1.31
FC Den Bosch under 1.5 goals 55.3% 59.4% 58.0% 1.02× 1.68
FC Den Bosch over 1.5 goals 44.7% 40.6% 42.0% 0.97× 2.46
FC Den Bosch under 0.5 goals 22.0% 23.7% 27.3% 0.87× 4.21
FC Den Bosch over 2.5 goals 19.5% 18.6% 18.6% 1.00× 5.39
FC Den Bosch over 3.5 goals 6.7% 7.7% 7.0% 1.09× 13.06
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch under 1.5 in 1st half 87.6% 89.2% — — 1.12
FC Den Bosch under 0.5 in 1st half 54.6% 55.8% — — 1.79
FC Den Bosch over 0.5 in 1st half 45.4% 44.2% — — 2.26
FC Den Bosch over 1.5 in 1st half 12.4% 10.8% — — 9.24
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch scores more in 2nd half 40.9% 43.7% — — 2.29
FC Den Bosch scores equally in both 35.9% 37.3% — — 2.68
FC Den Bosch scores more in 1st half 23.3% 22.1% — — 4.52
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht (away no bet) 69.5% 66.5% 66.8% 0.99× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 30.5% 33.6% 33.2% 1.01× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch even goals 52.4% 52.6% 57.0% 0.92× 1.90
FC Den Bosch odd goals 47.6% 47.4% 43.0% 1.10× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 74.5% 76.9% — — 1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals 25.5% 23.1% — — 4.33
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 76.8% 72.4% — — 1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals 23.2% 27.6% — — 3.62
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 68.2% 62.4% — — 1.60
FC Dordrecht to score 2+ in a row 47.1% 46.1% — — 2.17
FC Den Bosch to score 2+ in a row 32.5% 29.2% — — 3.43
Either team to score 3+ in a row 28.8% 25.2% — — 3.97
FC Dordrecht to score 3+ in a row 19.4% 16.3% — — 6.14
FC Den Bosch to score 3+ in a row 10.1% 12.0% — — 8.35
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht corners (+3.5) 90.0% 89.6% — — 1.12
FC Dordrecht corners (+2.5) 84.9% 79.8% — — 1.25
FC Dordrecht corners (+1.5) 78.2% 74.8% — — 1.34
FC Den Bosch corners (+3.5) 68.6% 65.9% — — 1.52
FC Den Bosch corners (+2.5) 59.4% 57.1% — — 1.75
FC Dordrecht corners (-1.5) 50.6% 52.4% — — 1.91
FC Den Bosch corners (+1.5) 49.4% 47.6% — — 2.10
FC Dordrecht corners (-2.5) 40.6% 42.9% — — 2.33
FC Dordrecht corners (-3.5) 31.4% 34.1% — — 2.93
FC Den Bosch corners (-1.5) 21.8% 25.2% — — 3.97
FC Den Bosch corners (-2.5) 15.1% 20.2% — — 4.95
FC Den Bosch corners (-3.5) 10.0% 10.4% — — 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 48.8% 41.8% — — 2.39
9-11 corners 28.5% 31.2% — — 3.21
0-8 corners 22.7% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 84.9% 80.7% — — 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 77.3% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 68.4% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 12.5 corners 60.6% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 10.5 corners 58.7% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 11.5 corners 51.2% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 11.5 corners 48.8% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 10.5 corners 41.3% 42.1% — — 2.38
Over 12.5 corners 39.4% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 9.5 corners 31.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 8.5 corners 22.7% 23.4% — — 4.27
Under 7.5 corners 15.1% 19.3% — — 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 2.00
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 8.9% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.51
2-1 9.0% 7.4% 8.1% 0.91× 13.51
1-2 7.0% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.51
2-2 6.8% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
Any other score 6.7% 7.4% 4.7% 1.59× 13.51
0-1 5.0% 7.4% 6.3% 1.18× 13.51
1-0 6.4% 7.4% 7.6% 0.97× 13.51
2-0 6.0% 7.4% 6.3% 1.18× 13.51
3-1 5.9% 7.4% 4.9% 1.51× 13.51
0-0 2.8% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.30
0-2 3.6% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.30
0-3 1.8% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.31
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.32
1-3 3.5% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.30
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
2-3 3.4% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.30
2-4 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.31
3-0 3.9% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.30
3-2 4.5% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.29
3-3 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.31
3-4 0.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1.40× 58.31
4-0 1.9% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.31
4-1 2.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.30
4-2 2.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.31
4-3 1.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.49× 58.31
4-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.1% 13.96× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht (2nd half DNB) 57.7% 59.8% — — 1.67
FC Den Bosch (2nd half DNB) 42.3% 40.2% — — 2.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht leading at HT (DNB) 61.1% 65.6% — — 1.53
FC Den Bosch leading at HT (DNB) 38.9% 34.4% — — 2.91
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht or FC Den Bosch (12) 78.8% 75.6% 77.9% 0.97× 1.32
FC Dordrecht or draw (1X) 69.7% 69.6% 66.5% 1.05× 1.44
FC Den Bosch or draw (X2) 51.6% 52.6% 55.5% 0.95× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht or draw at HT 75.5% 79.2% — — 1.26
FC Dordrecht or FC Den Bosch at HT 63.0% 61.4% — — 1.63
FC Den Bosch or draw at HT 61.5% 61.4% — — 1.63
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht or draw (1UP) 69.7% 76.4% — — 1.31
FC Den Bosch or draw (1UP) 51.6% 58.6% — — 1.71
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht or draw in 2nd half 70.5% 74.1% — — 1.35
FC Dordrecht or FC Den Bosch in 2nd half 69.8% 65.7% — — 1.52
FC Den Bosch or draw in 2nd half 59.7% 58.1% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 56.4% 58.4% — — 1.71
Neither half drawn 43.6% 41.6% — — 2.40
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht (DNB) 61.5% 62.7% 57.0% 1.10× 1.60
FC Den Bosch (DNB) 38.5% 37.3% 43.0% 0.87× 2.68
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht to score first 54.8% 53.5% — — 1.87
FC Den Bosch to score first 42.4% 41.7% — — 2.40
No goal scored 2.8% 4.3% — — 23.50
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 66.7% 58.4% 58.8% 0.99× 1.71
Not both teams to score 33.3% 41.6% 41.2% 1.01× 2.41
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 57.8% 47.6% 49.5% 0.96× 2.10
Not both score & under 2.5 23.7% 27.8% 28.3% 0.98× 3.60
Not both score & over 2.5 9.6% 8.3% 13.0% 0.64× 12.06
Both score & under 2.5 8.9% 8.3% 9.5% 0.88× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 74.0% 80.6% 79.0% 1.02× 1.24
Both teams to score 2+ 26.0% 19.4% 21.0% 0.92× 5.16
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 60.0% 65.5% — — 1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half 40.0% 34.5% — — 2.90
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 44.6% 50.7% — — 1.97
Both score 2nd half only 29.6% 27.2% — — 3.67
Both score 1st half only 15.4% 14.9% — — 6.72
Both score in both halves 10.4% 10.7% — — 9.34
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 74.2% 79.6% — — 1.26
Both teams to score by HT 25.8% 20.4% — — 4.91
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 66.2% 66.0% — — 1.52
A half without a goal 33.8% 34.0% — — 2.94
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 40.1% 42.1% 41.0% 1.03× 2.38
4-6 goals 39.4% 35.1% 37.6% 0.94× 2.85
0-1 goals 14.2% 16.9% 18.4% 0.92× 5.91
7+ goals 6.3% 7.6% 3.2% 2.38× 13.15
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 1 33.3% 33.8% 30.8% 1.10× 2.96
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 2 25.2% 27.4% 23.6% 1.16× 3.66
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 0 22.0% 22.3% 27.3% 0.82× 4.49
FC Den Bosch to score 3+ 19.5% 19.6% 18.6% 1.06× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht to score 3+ 31.2% 32.5% 25.6% 1.27× 3.07
FC Dordrecht to score exactly 1 27.7% 26.5% 30.2% 0.88× 3.77
FC Dordrecht to score exactly 2 27.1% 26.5% 25.8% 1.03× 3.77
FC Dordrecht to score exactly 0 14.1% 14.3% 18.7% 0.77× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht leading at HT 38.5% 38.6% — — 2.59
Draw at HT 37.0% 38.6% — — 2.59
FC Den Bosch leading at HT 24.5% 20.8% — — 4.80
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht -1: 2 51.6% 52.1% — — 1.92
FC Dordrecht -1: 1 27.3% 26.5% — — 3.77
FC Dordrecht -1: X 21.1% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:1) 51.6% 51.3% 55.5% 0.92× 1.95
FC Dordrecht (0:1) 27.3% 27.0% 24.4% 1.11× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 21.1% 24.2% 20.1% 1.20× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:2) 72.7% 75.7% 75.6% 1.00× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 14.5% 11.0% 12.8% 0.86× 9.09
FC Dordrecht (0:2) 12.8% 11.0% 11.8% 0.93× 9.10
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:3) 87.2% 90.6% 88.2% 1.03× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.8% 5.8% 5.7% 1.03× 17.20
FC Dordrecht (0:3) 5.0% 5.8% 6.3% 0.93× 17.25
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:4) 95.0% 94.6% 93.7% 1.01× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 3.3% 1.2% 4.3% 0.28× 81.73
FC Dordrecht (0:4) 1.7% 1.2% 2.1% 0.58× 81.92
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht (1:0) 69.7% 70.2% 66.5% 1.06× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 16.4% 17.1% 18.2% 0.94× 5.85
FC Den Bosch (1:0) 13.9% 12.7% 15.5% 0.82× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht (2:0) 86.1% 88.5% 84.5% 1.05× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.7% 6.4% 8.8% 0.72× 15.67
FC Den Bosch (2:0) 5.2% 6.4% 6.8% 0.94× 15.71
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 51.2% 50.3% — — 1.99
1st half highest scoring 27.7% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 21.0% 24.4% — — 4.10
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht to concede 78.0% 76.1% 72.7% 1.05× 1.31
FC Dordrecht clean sheet 22.0% 23.9% 27.3% 0.88× 4.18
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht clean sheet in 1st half 54.6% 55.8% — — 1.79
FC Dordrecht to concede in 1st half 45.4% 44.2% — — 2.26
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht to concede in 2nd half 59.7% 55.1% — — 1.82
FC Dordrecht clean sheet in 2nd half 40.3% 44.9% — — 2.23
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht over 2.5 corners 92.8% 89.2% — — 1.12
FC Dordrecht over 3.5 corners 84.6% 81.0% — — 1.24
FC Dordrecht over 4.5 corners 73.6% 71.9% — — 1.39
FC Dordrecht over 5.5 corners 60.8% 62.2% — — 1.61
FC Dordrecht under 6.5 corners 52.2% 52.6% — — 1.90
FC Dordrecht over 6.5 corners 47.8% 47.4% — — 2.11
FC Dordrecht under 5.5 corners 39.2% 37.8% — — 2.65
FC Dordrecht under 4.5 corners 26.4% 28.1% — — 3.55
FC Dordrecht under 3.5 corners 15.4% 19.0% — — 5.25
FC Dordrecht under 2.5 corners 7.2% 10.8% — — 9.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht under 3.5 goals 86.5% 87.3% 89.9% 0.97× 1.15
FC Dordrecht over 0.5 goals 85.9% 87.2% 81.3% 1.07× 1.15
FC Dordrecht under 2.5 goals 68.8% 68.0% 74.4% 0.91× 1.47
FC Dordrecht over 1.5 goals 58.2% 58.6% 51.2% 1.14× 1.71
FC Dordrecht under 1.5 goals 41.8% 41.4% 48.8% 0.85× 2.42
FC Dordrecht over 2.5 goals 31.2% 32.0% 25.6% 1.25× 3.12
FC Dordrecht under 0.5 goals 14.1% 12.8% 18.7% 0.68× 7.84
FC Dordrecht over 3.5 goals 13.5% 12.7% 10.1% 1.27× 7.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht under 1.5 in 1st half 79.4% 77.1% — — 1.30
FC Dordrecht over 0.5 in 1st half 56.9% 56.7% — — 1.76
FC Dordrecht under 0.5 in 1st half 43.1% 43.3% — — 2.31
FC Dordrecht over 1.5 in 1st half 20.6% 22.9% — — 4.37
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht scores more in 2nd half 41.8% 42.2% — — 2.37
FC Dordrecht scores equally in both 30.9% 33.1% — — 3.02
FC Dordrecht scores more in 1st half 27.4% 27.7% — — 3.61
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (home no bet) 58.8% 56.5% 60.3% 0.94× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 41.2% 43.6% 39.7% 1.10× 2.30
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht even goals 51.0% 50.7% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
FC Dordrecht odd goals 49.0% 49.3% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 23.5% 24.4% — — 4.10
HT 1-0 19.9% 18.7% — — 5.36
HT 0-1 14.3% 11.0% — — 9.09
HT 1-1 11.9% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 2-0 8.3% 6.9% — — 14.46
Any other HT score 7.6% 6.9% — — 14.47
HT 2-1 5.0% 6.9% — — 14.51
HT 0-2 4.3% 2.4% — — 42.01
HT 1-2 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.06
HT 2-2 1.5% 2.4% — — 42.20
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht at HT / FC Dordrecht at FT 30.0% 32.1% — — 3.12
FC Den Bosch at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT 16.4% 16.7% — — 5.98
Draw at HT / FC Dordrecht at FT 15.1% 16.7% — — 5.98
Draw at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT 11.1% 12.6% — — 7.91
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 10.8% 12.6% — — 7.91
FC Dordrecht at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.0% — — 16.66
FC Den Bosch at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% — — 28.61
FC Den Bosch at HT / FC Dordrecht at FT 3.3% 3.5% — — 28.67
FC Dordrecht at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT 2.9% 3.5% — — 28.68
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht to score last 54.8% 52.3% — — 1.91
FC Den Bosch to score last 42.4% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 2.8% 4.3% — — 23.50
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 97.2% 95.7% — — 1.05
FC Dordrecht to lead by 1 at any time 66.3% 69.4% — — 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 57.0% 54.9% — — 1.82
FC Den Bosch to lead by 1 at any time 51.3% 50.8% — — 1.97
FC Dordrecht to lead by 2 at any time 36.0% 34.6% — — 2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 23.9% 19.7% — — 5.08
FC Den Bosch to lead by 2 at any time 21.6% 19.6% — — 5.10
FC Dordrecht to lead by 3 at any time 16.3% 14.9% — — 6.71
FC Den Bosch to lead by 3 at any time 7.6% 6.7% — — 14.91
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht most corners 60.6% 60.5% — — 1.65
FC Den Bosch most corners 30.1% 34.3% — — 2.92
Corners level 9.4% 8.4% — — 11.96
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.4% 83.4% 86.4% 0.97× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.5% 78.7% 78.5% 1.00× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.9% 72.4% 72.7% 0.99× 1.38
1-4 goals 70.3% 72.4% 74.1% 0.98× 1.38
3-6 goals 61.1% 63.3% 59.3% 1.07× 1.58
2-4 goals 58.9% 59.1% 60.4% 0.98× 1.69
3-5 goals 53.5% 53.2% 53.6% 0.99× 1.88
1-3 goals 51.5% 53.2% 54.7% 0.97× 1.88
3-4 goals 40.5% 43.6% 41.3% 1.06× 2.30
2-3 goals 40.1% 43.6% 41.0% 1.06× 2.30
4-6 goals 39.4% 39.2% 37.6% 1.04× 2.55
4-5 goals 31.9% 35.2% 31.8% 1.11× 2.84
1-2 goals 29.8% 30.2% 32.9% 0.92× 3.31
5-6 goals 20.6% 24.5% 18.2% 1.35× 4.09
7+ goals 6.3% 8.9% 3.2% 2.78× 11.27
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht never behind 45.9% 56.6% — — 1.77
FC Den Bosch never behind 31.0% 36.1% — — 2.77
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.4% 50.9% 49.6% 1.03× 1.96
Odd number of goals 50.6% 49.1% 50.4% 0.97× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.7% 51.6% — — 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 47.3% 48.4% — — 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.7% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.3% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 97.2% 95.4% 95.2% 1.00× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 86.2% 87.6% 91.0% 0.96× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 85.8% 87.6% 81.6% 1.07× 1.14
Under 4.5 goals 73.1% 72.5% 78.7% 0.92× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 67.4% 66.3% 62.4% 1.06× 1.51
Under 3.5 goals 54.3% 52.5% 59.3% 0.89× 1.90
Over 3.5 goals 45.7% 47.5% 40.7% 1.17× 2.11
Under 2.5 goals 32.6% 33.7% 37.6% 0.90× 2.97
Over 4.5 goals 26.9% 27.5% 21.3% 1.30× 3.63
Under 1.5 goals 14.2% 12.4% 18.4% 0.67× 8.06
Over 5.5 goals 13.8% 12.4% 9.0% 1.38× 8.06
Under 0.5 goals 2.8% 4.6% 4.8% 0.95× 21.88
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 93.2% 92.4% 96.6% 0.96× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 84.1% 81.1% 89.8% 0.90× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 82.6% 81.1% 77.2% 1.05× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 66.9% 67.4% 73.6% 0.92× 1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 58.3% 55.8% 52.0% 1.07× 1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 41.7% 44.2% 48.0% 0.92× 2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 33.1% 32.6% 26.4% 1.23× 3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 17.4% 18.9% 22.8% 0.83× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 15.9% 18.9% 10.2% 1.85× 5.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 6.8% 7.6% 3.4% 2.24× 13.16
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 82.2% 85.8% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half 76.5% 78.3% — — 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 57.6% 63.8% — — 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 42.4% 36.2% — — 2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half 23.5% 21.7% — — 4.61
Over 2.5 in 1st half 17.8% 14.2% — — 7.03
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 86.9% 85.5% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 67.0% 68.8% — — 1.45
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 59.9% 54.9% — — 1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 40.1% 45.1% — — 2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 33.0% 31.2% — — 3.20
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 13.1% 14.5% — — 6.88
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch not to score in both halves 72.9% 73.9% — — 1.35
FC Dordrecht not to score in both halves 61.8% 63.5% — — 1.58
FC Dordrecht to score in both halves 38.2% 36.5% — — 2.74
FC Den Bosch to score in both halves 27.1% 26.1% — — 3.83
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 66.7% 59.9% 58.8% 1.02× 1.67
Only FC Dordrecht scores 19.2% 16.0% 22.6% 0.71× 6.24
Only FC Den Bosch scores 11.3% 11.0% 14.0% 0.79× 9.07
Neither team scores 2.8% 4.6% 4.8% 0.96× 21.74
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.7% 22.6% 21.9% 1.03× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 18.8% 17.5% 19.5% 0.89× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 18.4% 17.5% 19.3% 0.91× 5.73
6 or more goals 13.8% 12.1% 9.0% 1.35× 8.24
Exactly 5 goals 13.1% 12.1% 12.4% 0.98× 8.25
Exactly 1 goals 11.4% 12.1% 13.8% 0.88× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 2.8% 4.5% 4.8% 0.93× 22.40
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 34.2% 35.8% — — 2.79
2 goals in 1st half 24.6% 21.5% — — 4.65
No goals in 1st half 23.5% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 17.8% 15.7% — — 6.38
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 59.9% 54.3% — — 1.84
1 goal in 2nd half 27.0% 29.2% — — 3.43
No goals in 2nd half 13.1% 14.3% — — 6.97
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch not to win both halves 92.8% 94.1% — — 1.06
FC Dordrecht not to win both halves 84.6% 83.9% — — 1.19
FC Dordrecht to win both halves 15.4% 16.1% — — 6.22
FC Den Bosch to win both halves 7.2% 5.9% — — 17.00
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Dordrecht to win either half 63.3% 65.1% — — 1.54
FC Den Bosch to win neither half 53.2% 54.3% — — 1.84
FC Den Bosch to win either half 46.8% 45.7% — — 2.19
FC Dordrecht to win neither half 36.7% 34.9% — — 2.87
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch not to win to nil 88.7% 88.1% 86.0% 1.02× 1.14
FC Dordrecht not to win to nil 80.8% 83.1% 77.4% 1.07× 1.20
FC Dordrecht to win to nil 19.2% 16.9% 22.6% 0.75× 5.91
FC Den Bosch to win to nil 11.3% 11.9% 14.0% 0.85× 8.42
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 21.2% 24.1% 22.1% 1.09× 4.15
FC Dordrecht by 1 21.1% 24.1% 20.1% 1.20× 4.15
FC Den Bosch by 1 16.4% 17.0% 18.2% 0.94× 5.87
FC Dordrecht by 2 14.5% 11.8% 12.8% 0.92× 8.50
FC Dordrecht by 3+ 12.8% 11.8% 11.8% 1.00× 8.51
FC Den Bosch by 2 8.7% 7.2% 8.8% 0.81× 13.90
FC Den Bosch by 3+ 5.2% 7.2% 6.8% 1.06× 13.92
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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