FC Dordrecht v Heracles Almelo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 14 November 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

FC Dordrecht

19:00 UTC

Heracles Almelo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 512h before kick-off

FC Dordrecht win

23.1%

model 23.9%

Draw

19.2%

model 19.7%

Heracles Almelo win

57.7%

model 56.4%

231958

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-2 9.3%
1-1 8.2%
1-3 6.8%
0-2 6.7%
2-2 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	69.4%	Under 2.5	30.6%
BTTS yes	66.3%	BTTS no	33.7%
FC Dordrecht 1+	74.9%	FC Dordrecht 2+	40.2%
Heracles Almelo 1+	88.9%	Heracles Almelo 2+	64.5%

Expected goals 1.38 – 2.20. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

57/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Heracles Almelo (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 34%

57.0% fair odds 1.75

strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Heracles Almelo carry the stronger rating, 1413 Elo against 1378.
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Heracles Almelo have an estimated 57.7% win probability, against 23.1% for FC Dordrecht and 19.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.38 for FC Dordrecht and 2.20 for Heracles Almelo.

Why FC Dordrecht

Nothing in the data singles out FC Dordrecht.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.2%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why Heracles Almelo can win

Heracles Almelo carry the stronger rating, 1413 Elo against 1378. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Dordrecht, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Heracles Almelo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Dordrecht: 53% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Heracles Almelo: 57% possession, 22.4 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Heracles Almelo are the model's most likely outcome at 57.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 9.3%. Confidence 57/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	242056	1.38–2.20	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	211762	1.66–2.84	1-2 7%	83%	76%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win	62.4%	58.2%	33.5%	1.74×	1.72
FC Dordrecht to win	21.0%	24.5%	44.5%	0.55×	4.09
Draw	16.6%	19.4%	22.1%	0.88×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo & both teams score	44.2%	40.2%	19.7%	2.04×	2.49
Heracles Almelo & not both score	18.1%	18.0%	14.0%	1.28×	5.56
FC Dordrecht & both teams score	16.1%	18.0%	22.0%	0.82×	5.57
Draw & both teams score	15.7%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.57
FC Dordrecht & not both score	4.9%	4.9%	22.6%	0.22×	20.51
Draw & not both score	0.9%	4.8%	4.8%	1.01×	20.63

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo & over 1.5	59.0%	54.9%	27.4%	2.01×	1.82
Heracles Almelo & over 2.5	54.5%	48.9%	23.7%	2.06×	2.04
Heracles Almelo & over 3.5	42.8%	40.2%	13.9%	2.90×	2.49
Heracles Almelo & under 3.5	19.6%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
FC Dordrecht & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	37.0%	0.49×	5.56
FC Dordrecht & over 2.5	17.5%	18.0%	30.8%	0.58×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.7%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
FC Dordrecht & over 3.5	12.3%	12.8%	18.9%	0.68×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	10.6%	12.8%	8.1%	1.58×	7.79
Draw & over 3.5	10.6%	12.8%	8.1%	1.58×	7.79
FC Dordrecht & under 3.5	8.8%	7.9%	25.7%	0.31×	12.63
Heracles Almelo & under 2.5	7.9%	7.9%	10.0%	0.80×	12.63
Draw & under 2.5	6.0%	7.9%	14.1%	0.56×	12.63
Draw & under 3.5	6.0%	7.9%	14.1%	0.56×	12.63
FC Dordrecht & under 2.5	3.6%	4.8%	13.8%	0.35×	20.82
Heracles Almelo & under 1.5	3.4%	4.8%	6.3%	0.77×	20.82
FC Dordrecht & under 1.5	2.0%	4.8%	7.6%	0.63×	20.82
Draw & under 1.5	0.9%	4.8%	4.8%	1.00×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (1UP)	78.6%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
FC Dordrecht (1UP)	46.0%	43.8%	—	—	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (2UP)	62.4%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
FC Dordrecht (2UP)	21.0%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win 2nd half	55.2%	61.2%	—	—	1.64
2nd half drawn	23.9%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
FC Dordrecht to win 2nd half	20.9%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.7%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.3%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.6%	75.0%	—	—	1.33
FC Dordrecht over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.1%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
FC Dordrecht under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.9%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
FC Dordrecht over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.4%	25.0%	—	—	4.01

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (+2.5)	96.4%	96.3%	88.2%	1.09×	1.04
Heracles Almelo (+1.5)	90.5%	92.1%	75.6%	1.22×	1.09
Heracles Almelo (+0.5)	79.0%	78.5%	55.5%	1.41×	1.27
Heracles Almelo (-0.5)	62.4%	62.9%	33.5%	1.88×	1.59
FC Dordrecht (+0.5)	37.6%	37.1%	66.5%	0.56×	2.70
FC Dordrecht (-0.5)	21.0%	21.5%	44.5%	0.48×	4.65
FC Dordrecht (-1.5)	9.5%	7.9%	24.4%	0.32×	12.67
FC Dordrecht (-2.5)	3.6%	3.7%	11.8%	0.31×	27.08

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to concede	80.9%	81.5%	81.3%	1.00×	1.23
Heracles Almelo clean sheet	19.1%	18.5%	18.7%	0.99×	5.41

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to concede in 1st half	50.9%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Heracles Almelo clean sheet in 1st half	49.1%	49.5%	—	—	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to concede in 2nd half	61.1%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Heracles Almelo clean sheet in 2nd half	38.9%	38.8%	—	—	2.58

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 2.5 corners	82.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Heracles Almelo under 6.5 corners	74.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Heracles Almelo over 3.5 corners	68.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Heracles Almelo under 5.5 corners	62.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Heracles Almelo over 4.5 corners	52.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Heracles Almelo under 4.5 corners	47.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Heracles Almelo over 5.5 corners	37.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Heracles Almelo under 3.5 corners	31.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Heracles Almelo over 6.5 corners	25.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Heracles Almelo under 2.5 corners	17.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 goals	94.1%	92.4%	72.7%	1.27×	1.08
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 goals	77.5%	76.3%	42.0%	1.81×	1.31
Heracles Almelo under 3.5 goals	68.5%	68.0%	93.0%	0.73×	1.47
Heracles Almelo over 2.5 goals	53.8%	53.5%	18.6%	2.88×	1.87
Heracles Almelo under 2.5 goals	46.2%	46.5%	81.5%	0.57×	2.15
Heracles Almelo over 3.5 goals	31.5%	32.0%	7.0%	4.57×	3.13
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 goals	22.5%	23.7%	58.0%	0.41×	4.21
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 goals	5.9%	7.6%	27.3%	0.28×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 in 1st half	68.6%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 in 1st half	67.8%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 in 1st half	32.2%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 in 1st half	31.4%	30.0%	—	—	3.34

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo scores more in 2nd half	50.6%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Heracles Almelo scores more in 1st half	25.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Heracles Almelo scores equally in both	24.0%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht (away no bet)	55.9%	57.4%	66.8%	0.86×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	44.1%	42.6%	33.2%	1.28×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo even goals	50.2%	52.6%	57.0%	0.92×	1.90
Heracles Almelo odd goals	49.8%	47.4%	43.0%	1.10×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	59.2%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Both halves over 1.5 goals	40.8%	43.2%	—	—	2.32

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	88.3%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Both halves under 1.5 goals	11.7%	16.1%	—	—	6.21

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	81.2%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Heracles Almelo to score 2+ in a row	66.4%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row	43.7%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Heracles Almelo to score 3+ in a row	35.8%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
FC Dordrecht to score 2+ in a row	32.7%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
FC Dordrecht to score 3+ in a row	9.6%	5.6%	—	—	17.91

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht corners (+3.5)	89.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
FC Dordrecht corners (+2.5)	83.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
FC Dordrecht corners (+1.5)	76.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Heracles Almelo corners (+3.5)	71.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Heracles Almelo corners (+2.5)	62.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Heracles Almelo corners (+1.5)	52.2%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
FC Dordrecht corners (-1.5)	47.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
FC Dordrecht corners (-2.5)	37.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
FC Dordrecht corners (-3.5)	28.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Heracles Almelo corners (-1.5)	23.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Heracles Almelo corners (-2.5)	16.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Heracles Almelo corners (-3.5)	10.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	44.6%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
0-8 corners	25.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	82.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	74.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	64.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 12.5 corners	64.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	55.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	54.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	45.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 11.5 corners	44.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 9.5 corners	35.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	35.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	25.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	17.4%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	17.9%	13.8%	4.7%	2.96×	7.23
1-2	7.5%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
1-3	7.1%	7.4%	3.7%	2.01×	13.51
1-1	5.1%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.51
1-4	5.0%	7.4%	2.2%	3.35×	13.51
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
2-3	5.9%	7.4%	3.6%	2.08×	13.51
0-0	0.9%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.31
0-1	3.4%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.30
0-2	4.5%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.29
0-3	4.3%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.30
0-4	3.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.30
1-0	2.0%	1.7%	7.6%	0.23×	58.31
2-0	1.5%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.31
2-1	4.4%	1.7%	8.1%	0.21×	58.29
2-4	4.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.30
3-0	0.8%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.31
3-1	2.4%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.31
3-2	3.4%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-3	3.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.30
3-4	2.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.31
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.32
4-1	1.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.31
4-2	1.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	1.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	58.31
4-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.1%	13.96×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (2nd half DNB)	72.5%	71.1%	—	—	1.41
FC Dordrecht (2nd half DNB)	27.5%	28.9%	—	—	3.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo leading at HT (DNB)	66.5%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
FC Dordrecht leading at HT (DNB)	33.5%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht or Heracles Almelo (12)	83.4%	80.6%	77.9%	1.04×	1.24
Heracles Almelo or draw (X2)	79.0%	75.5%	55.5%	1.36×	1.32
FC Dordrecht or draw (1X)	37.6%	41.8%	66.5%	0.63×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw at HT	77.0%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
FC Dordrecht or Heracles Almelo at HT	68.7%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
FC Dordrecht or draw at HT	54.3%	47.8%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw (1UP)	79.0%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
FC Dordrecht or draw (1UP)	46.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw in 2nd half	79.1%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
FC Dordrecht or Heracles Almelo in 2nd half	76.1%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
FC Dordrecht or draw in 2nd half	44.8%	38.8%	—	—	2.58

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	52.1%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
A half drawn	47.9%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (DNB)	74.8%	71.5%	43.0%	1.66×	1.40
FC Dordrecht (DNB)	25.2%	28.5%	57.0%	0.50×	3.51

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score first	62.5%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
FC Dordrecht to score first	36.5%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	0.9%	4.2%	—	—	23.54

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	76.0%	61.9%	58.8%	1.05×	1.62
Not both teams to score	24.0%	38.1%	41.2%	0.93×	2.62

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	70.9%	59.0%	49.5%	1.19×	1.70
Not both score & under 2.5	12.4%	12.4%	28.3%	0.44×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	11.6%	12.4%	13.0%	0.95×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	5.1%	8.3%	9.5%	0.87×	12.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	61.8%	70.7%	79.0%	0.89×	1.42
Both teams to score 2+	38.2%	29.3%	21.0%	1.40×	3.41

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	50.1%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Both teams to score in 2nd half	49.9%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	32.9%	27.9%	—	—	3.58
Both score 2nd half only	32.6%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
Both score 1st half only	17.3%	15.0%	—	—	6.65
Both score in both halves	17.3%	15.0%	—	—	6.65

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	65.5%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Both teams to score by HT	34.5%	29.9%	—	—	3.35

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	78.2%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
A half without a goal	21.8%	21.5%	—	—	4.66

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	49.0%	47.2%	37.6%	1.26×	2.12
2-3 goals	28.1%	26.6%	41.0%	0.65×	3.76
7+ goals	16.6%	20.2%	3.2%	6.32×	4.95
0-1 goals	6.3%	7.6%	18.4%	0.41×	13.17

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score 3+	53.8%	47.2%	18.6%	2.54×	2.12
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 2	23.6%	22.3%	23.6%	0.95×	4.49
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 1	16.7%	19.6%	30.8%	0.63×	5.11
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 0	5.9%	8.5%	27.3%	0.31×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht to score exactly 1	31.6%	32.6%	30.2%	1.08×	3.07
FC Dordrecht to score exactly 2	26.2%	26.5%	25.8%	1.03×	3.77
FC Dordrecht to score 3+	23.1%	23.3%	25.6%	0.91×	4.29
FC Dordrecht to score exactly 0	19.1%	18.8%	18.7%	1.00×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo leading at HT	45.7%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Draw at HT	31.3%	32.8%	—	—	3.04
FC Dordrecht leading at HT	23.0%	20.6%	—	—	4.86

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo -1: 2	42.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Heracles Almelo -1: 1	37.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Heracles Almelo -1: X	19.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:1)	79.0%	73.8%	55.5%	1.33×	1.35
Draw (0:1)	11.5%	13.7%	20.1%	0.68×	7.30
FC Dordrecht (0:1)	9.5%	9.3%	24.4%	0.38×	10.77

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:2)	90.5%	90.7%	75.6%	1.20×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	5.9%	7.7%	12.8%	0.60×	13.06
FC Dordrecht (0:2)	3.6%	3.8%	11.8%	0.32×	26.67

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:3)	96.4%	96.6%	88.2%	1.10×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.5%	2.4%	5.7%	0.42×	42.12
FC Dordrecht (0:3)	1.2%	2.4%	6.3%	0.38×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:4)	98.8%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
FC Dordrecht (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	82.14
Draw (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	82.08

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (1:0)	42.8%	43.3%	15.5%	2.80×	2.31
FC Dordrecht (1:0)	37.6%	37.6%	66.5%	0.57×	2.66
Draw (1:0)	19.6%	17.1%	18.2%	0.94×	5.84

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht (2:0)	57.2%	62.1%	84.5%	0.74×	1.61
Heracles Almelo (2:0)	25.4%	23.0%	6.8%	3.41×	4.34
Draw (2:0)	17.3%	15.8%	8.8%	1.79×	6.33

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	55.3%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	18.0%	19.2%	—	—	5.22

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht to concede	94.1%	93.4%	72.7%	1.28×	1.07
FC Dordrecht clean sheet	5.9%	6.6%	27.3%	0.24×	15.05

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht to concede in 1st half	67.8%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
FC Dordrecht clean sheet in 1st half	32.2%	29.7%	—	—	3.37

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht to concede in 2nd half	81.7%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
FC Dordrecht clean sheet in 2nd half	18.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht over 2.5 corners	91.3%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
FC Dordrecht over 3.5 corners	82.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
FC Dordrecht over 4.5 corners	70.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
FC Dordrecht under 6.5 corners	56.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
FC Dordrecht over 5.5 corners	56.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
FC Dordrecht under 5.5 corners	43.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
FC Dordrecht over 6.5 corners	43.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
FC Dordrecht under 4.5 corners	30.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
FC Dordrecht under 3.5 corners	17.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
FC Dordrecht under 2.5 corners	8.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht under 3.5 goals	91.3%	92.2%	89.9%	1.03×	1.08
FC Dordrecht over 0.5 goals	80.9%	82.2%	81.3%	1.01×	1.22
FC Dordrecht under 2.5 goals	76.9%	77.7%	74.4%	1.04×	1.29
FC Dordrecht under 1.5 goals	50.7%	53.2%	48.8%	1.09×	1.88
FC Dordrecht over 1.5 goals	49.3%	46.8%	51.2%	0.91×	2.14
FC Dordrecht over 2.5 goals	23.1%	22.3%	25.6%	0.87×	4.49
FC Dordrecht under 0.5 goals	19.1%	17.8%	18.7%	0.95×	5.62
FC Dordrecht over 3.5 goals	8.7%	7.8%	10.1%	0.77×	12.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht under 1.5 in 1st half	84.0%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
FC Dordrecht over 0.5 in 1st half	50.9%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
FC Dordrecht under 0.5 in 1st half	49.1%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
FC Dordrecht over 1.5 in 1st half	16.0%	16.1%	—	—	6.21

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht scores more in 2nd half	39.4%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
FC Dordrecht scores equally in both	34.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
FC Dordrecht scores more in 1st half	26.4%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (home no bet)	79.0%	78.1%	60.3%	1.30×	1.28
Draw (home no bet)	21.0%	21.9%	39.7%	0.55×	4.57

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht even goals	51.8%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
FC Dordrecht odd goals	48.2%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-1	17.9%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 0-0	15.7%	18.5%	—	—	5.41
Any other HT score	13.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	12.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 1-0	11.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 0-2	10.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 1-2	7.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.46
HT 2-1	4.5%	2.4%	—	—	41.91
HT 2-0	4.0%	2.4%	—	—	41.95
HT 2-2	2.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.04

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	39.2%	41.1%	—	—	2.43
Draw at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	17.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
FC Dordrecht at HT / FC Dordrecht at FT	12.3%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	7.3%	6.1%	—	—	16.44
Draw at HT / FC Dordrecht at FT	6.6%	6.1%	—	—	16.46
FC Dordrecht at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	5.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.48
FC Dordrecht at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
Heracles Almelo at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
Heracles Almelo at HT / FC Dordrecht at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.89

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score last	62.5%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
FC Dordrecht to score last	36.6%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	0.9%	4.2%	—	—	23.54

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	99.1%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Heracles Almelo to lead by 1 at any time	78.6%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	70.4%	73.8%	—	—	1.35
Heracles Almelo to lead by 2 at any time	53.4%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
FC Dordrecht to lead by 1 at any time	46.0%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	37.5%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Heracles Almelo to lead by 3 at any time	31.3%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
FC Dordrecht to lead by 2 at any time	18.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
FC Dordrecht to lead by 3 at any time	6.3%	6.7%	—	—	15.01

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht most corners	58.1%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Heracles Almelo most corners	32.1%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	9.8%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	77.0%	78.7%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
1-5 goals	69.6%	68.8%	86.4%	0.80×	1.45
3-6 goals	65.9%	68.8%	59.3%	1.16×	1.45
2-5 goals	64.2%	63.3%	72.7%	0.87×	1.58
3-5 goals	53.1%	53.2%	53.6%	0.99×	1.88
1-4 goals	52.5%	53.2%	74.1%	0.72×	1.88
4-6 goals	49.0%	48.5%	37.6%	1.29×	2.06
2-4 goals	47.1%	48.5%	60.4%	0.80×	2.06
3-4 goals	36.0%	39.2%	41.3%	0.95×	2.55
4-5 goals	36.1%	39.2%	31.8%	1.23×	2.55
1-3 goals	33.5%	35.2%	54.7%	0.64×	2.84
5-6 goals	29.9%	30.2%	18.2%	1.66×	3.31
2-3 goals	28.1%	30.2%	41.0%	0.74×	3.31
7+ goals	16.6%	18.8%	3.2%	5.89×	5.31
1-2 goals	16.5%	18.8%	32.9%	0.57×	5.31

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo never behind	53.1%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
FC Dordrecht never behind	20.5%	24.8%	—	—	4.03

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	49.6%	1.03×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.4%	49.1%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.2%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	48.8%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.1%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.9%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	99.1%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	93.7%	92.3%	81.6%	1.13×	1.08
Over 2.5 goals	82.5%	82.3%	62.4%	1.32×	1.22
Under 5.5 goals	70.6%	72.5%	91.0%	0.80×	1.38
Over 3.5 goals	65.6%	66.3%	40.7%	1.63×	1.51
Under 4.5 goals	53.5%	52.5%	78.7%	0.67×	1.90
Over 4.5 goals	46.5%	47.5%	21.3%	2.23×	2.11
Under 3.5 goals	34.4%	33.7%	59.3%	0.57×	2.97
Over 5.5 goals	29.4%	27.5%	9.0%	3.07×	3.63
Under 2.5 goals	17.5%	17.7%	37.6%	0.47×	5.66
Under 1.5 goals	6.3%	7.7%	18.4%	0.42×	12.95
Under 0.5 goals	0.9%	4.6%	4.8%	0.95×	21.89

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	92.9%	92.4%	77.2%	1.20×	1.08
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	80.9%	81.1%	96.6%	0.84×	1.23
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	79.0%	75.9%	52.0%	1.46×	1.32
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	64.5%	61.9%	89.8%	0.69×	1.61
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	57.5%	55.8%	26.4%	2.11×	1.79
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	42.5%	44.2%	73.6%	0.60×	2.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	35.5%	38.1%	10.2%	3.72×	2.63
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	21.0%	24.1%	48.0%	0.50×	4.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	19.1%	18.9%	3.4%	5.59×	5.28
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	7.1%	7.6%	22.8%	0.33×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	84.3%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half	71.8%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Over 1.5 in 1st half	55.1%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Under 1.5 in 1st half	44.9%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Over 2.5 in 1st half	28.2%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Under 0.5 in 1st half	15.7%	14.2%	—	—	7.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	93.0%	90.4%	—	—	1.11
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	74.0%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	50.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	49.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	26.0%	22.4%	—	—	4.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	7.0%	9.6%	—	—	10.45

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht not to score in both halves	68.9%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Heracles Almelo to score in both halves	55.5%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Heracles Almelo not to score in both halves	44.5%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
FC Dordrecht to score in both halves	31.1%	29.9%	—	—	3.35

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	76.0%	66.7%	58.8%	1.13×	1.50
Only Heracles Almelo scores	18.1%	16.0%	14.0%	1.14×	6.24
Only FC Dordrecht scores	4.9%	4.6%	22.6%	0.21×	21.58
Neither team scores	0.9%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.75

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	29.4%	24.9%	9.0%	2.78×	4.02
Exactly 4 goals	19.0%	17.5%	19.5%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 3 goals	16.9%	17.5%	21.9%	0.80×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	17.1%	17.5%	12.4%	1.41×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	11.1%	12.1%	19.3%	0.63×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	5.4%	7.6%	13.8%	0.55×	13.15
Exactly 0 goals	0.9%	4.5%	4.8%	0.93×	22.40

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	29.2%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
3+ goals in 1st half	28.2%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	26.9%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
No goals in 1st half	15.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.43

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	74.0%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
1 goal in 2nd half	18.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
No goals in 2nd half	7.0%	9.7%	—	—	10.30

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht not to win both halves	95.2%	97.1%	—	—	1.03
Heracles Almelo not to win both halves	74.8%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
Heracles Almelo to win both halves	25.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.78
FC Dordrecht to win both halves	4.8%	2.9%	—	—	35.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win either half	75.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
FC Dordrecht to win neither half	60.9%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
FC Dordrecht to win either half	39.1%	35.1%	—	—	2.85
Heracles Almelo to win neither half	24.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.93

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Dordrecht not to win to nil	95.1%	96.1%	77.4%	1.24×	1.04
Heracles Almelo not to win to nil	81.9%	83.1%	86.0%	0.97×	1.20
Heracles Almelo to win to nil	18.1%	16.9%	14.0%	1.21×	5.91
FC Dordrecht to win to nil	4.9%	3.9%	22.6%	0.17×	25.50

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo by 3+	25.4%	27.9%	6.8%	4.13×	3.59
Heracles Almelo by 1	19.6%	17.1%	18.2%	0.94×	5.86
Heracles Almelo by 2	17.3%	17.0%	8.8%	1.93×	5.87
Draw	16.6%	17.0%	22.1%	0.77×	5.87
FC Dordrecht by 1	11.5%	11.7%	20.1%	0.58×	8.51
FC Dordrecht by 2	5.9%	7.2%	12.8%	0.56×	13.91
FC Dordrecht by 3+	3.6%	2.7%	11.8%	0.23×	36.82