FC Emmen v De Graafschap — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

FC Emmen

1–2

18:00 UTC

De Graafschap

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 6h before kick-off

FC Emmen win

40.4%

model 41.2%

Draw

23.0%

model 21.7%

De Graafschap win

36.6%

model 37.1%

402337

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,406 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 9.0%
2-1 8.3%
1-2 7.9%
2-2 7.1%
1-0 5.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	67.8%	Under 2.5	32.2%
BTTS yes	67.9%	BTTS no	32.1%
FC Emmen 1+	83.5%	FC Emmen 2+	53.7%
De Graafschap 1+	81.7%	De Graafschap 2+	50.6%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.70. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

57/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

De Graafschap over 1.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 42%

52.9% fair odds 1.89

strong signal · 7117 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

FC Emmen (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 85%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 4439 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Emmen have an estimated 40.4% win probability, against 36.6% for De Graafschap and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.80 for FC Emmen and 1.70 for De Graafschap.

Why FC Emmen

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.80 to 1.70. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why De Graafschap can win

De Graafschap carry the stronger rating, 1468 Elo against 1436.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Emmen, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for De Graafschap, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Emmen: 50% possession, 18.8 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. De Graafschap: 57% possession, 18.2 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Emmen's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

FC Emmen are the model's most likely outcome at 40.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.0%. Confidence 57/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	412237	1.80–1.70	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	432136	1.86–1.68	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg	392140	1.84–1.85	1-1 8%	71%	71%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	392140	1.83–1.85	1-1 8%	71%	70%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to win	39.7%	36.2%	33.4%	1.09×	2.76
FC Emmen to win	39.2%	36.2%	44.4%	0.82×	2.76
Draw	21.1%	24.6%	22.3%	1.10×	4.07

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap & both teams score	26.0%	25.4%	19.6%	1.30×	3.93
FC Emmen & both teams score	25.7%	25.4%	21.7%	1.17×	3.93
Draw & both teams score	18.9%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.55
FC Emmen & not both score	13.5%	13.3%	22.8%	0.58×	7.54
De Graafschap & not both score	13.7%	13.3%	13.9%	0.95×	7.54
Draw & not both score	2.2%	4.9%	4.8%	1.01×	20.40

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap & over 1.5	34.8%	31.1%	27.2%	1.14×	3.22
FC Emmen & over 1.5	34.3%	31.1%	36.8%	0.84×	3.22
De Graafschap & over 2.5	30.5%	31.0%	23.6%	1.32×	3.22
FC Emmen & over 2.5	30.1%	31.0%	30.6%	1.01×	3.22
De Graafschap & over 3.5	20.0%	21.6%	13.8%	1.57×	4.63
FC Emmen & over 3.5	19.7%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.57
De Graafschap & under 3.5	19.7%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.57
FC Emmen & under 3.5	19.5%	18.0%	25.8%	0.70×	5.57
Draw & over 1.5	18.9%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.57
Draw & over 2.5	10.6%	12.9%	8.2%	1.57×	7.78
Draw & under 2.5	10.5%	12.9%	14.3%	0.90×	7.78
Draw & over 3.5	10.6%	12.9%	8.2%	1.57×	7.78
Draw & under 3.5	10.5%	12.9%	14.3%	0.90×	7.78
FC Emmen & under 2.5	9.1%	8.0%	13.9%	0.57×	12.57
De Graafschap & under 2.5	9.2%	8.0%	9.9%	0.80×	12.57
FC Emmen & under 1.5	4.9%	4.9%	7.7%	0.63×	20.57
De Graafschap & under 1.5	4.9%	4.9%	6.3%	0.77×	20.57
Draw & under 1.5	2.2%	4.9%	4.8%	1.00×	20.59

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (1UP)	60.3%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
FC Emmen (1UP)	59.9%	58.2%	—	—	1.72

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (2UP)	39.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
FC Emmen (2UP)	39.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to win 2nd half	37.0%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
FC Emmen to win 2nd half	33.8%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
2nd half drawn	29.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.5%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
De Graafschap over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.1%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
De Graafschap under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.9%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
De Graafschap over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.5%	29.0%	—	—	3.45

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen under 1.5 in 2nd half	71.8%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
FC Emmen over 0.5 in 2nd half	64.9%	62.7%	—	—	1.59
FC Emmen under 0.5 in 2nd half	35.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
FC Emmen over 1.5 in 2nd half	28.2%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (+2.5)	91.0%	92.1%	88.1%	1.05×	1.09
De Graafschap (+1.5)	79.4%	78.4%	75.6%	1.04×	1.28
De Graafschap (+0.5)	60.8%	63.0%	55.6%	1.13×	1.59
FC Emmen (+0.5)	60.3%	63.0%	66.6%	0.95×	1.59
De Graafschap (-0.5)	39.7%	37.0%	33.4%	1.11×	2.71
FC Emmen (-0.5)	39.2%	37.0%	44.4%	0.83×	2.71
FC Emmen (-1.5)	20.6%	21.6%	24.4%	0.89×	4.62
FC Emmen (-2.5)	9.0%	7.9%	11.9%	0.66×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to concede	84.1%	81.4%	81.4%	1.00×	1.23
De Graafschap clean sheet	15.9%	18.6%	18.6%	1.00×	5.38

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap clean sheet in 1st half	45.4%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
De Graafschap to concede in 1st half	54.6%	49.4%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to concede in 2nd half	64.9%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
De Graafschap clean sheet in 2nd half	35.1%	39.6%	—	—	2.53

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap over 2.5 corners	83.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
De Graafschap under 6.5 corners	73.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
De Graafschap over 3.5 corners	69.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
De Graafschap under 5.5 corners	61.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
De Graafschap over 4.5 corners	53.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
De Graafschap under 4.5 corners	46.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
De Graafschap over 5.5 corners	38.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
De Graafschap under 3.5 corners	30.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
De Graafschap over 6.5 corners	26.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
De Graafschap under 2.5 corners	16.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap under 3.5 goals	88.3%	87.9%	93.1%	0.94×	1.14
De Graafschap over 0.5 goals	84.3%	81.3%	72.5%	1.12×	1.23
De Graafschap under 2.5 goals	71.7%	71.9%	81.5%	0.88×	1.39
De Graafschap over 1.5 goals	55.2%	58.9%	41.8%	1.41×	1.70
De Graafschap under 1.5 goals	44.8%	41.1%	58.2%	0.71×	2.43
De Graafschap over 2.5 goals	28.3%	28.1%	18.5%	1.52×	3.55
De Graafschap under 0.5 goals	15.7%	18.7%	27.5%	0.68×	5.34
De Graafschap over 3.5 goals	11.7%	12.1%	6.9%	1.74×	8.26

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap under 1.5 in 1st half	83.0%	83.0%	—	—	1.20
De Graafschap over 0.5 in 1st half	52.3%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
De Graafschap under 0.5 in 1st half	47.7%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
De Graafschap over 1.5 in 1st half	17.0%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap scores more in 2nd half	44.2%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
De Graafschap scores equally in both	31.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
De Graafschap scores more in 1st half	24.3%	22.5%	—	—	4.45

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen (away no bet)	65.0%	66.5%	66.5%	1.00×	1.50
Draw (away no bet)	35.0%	33.5%	33.5%	1.00×	2.99

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap even goals	51.2%	52.8%	57.1%	0.92×	1.90
De Graafschap odd goals	48.8%	47.2%	42.9%	1.10×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	71.3%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals	28.7%	23.0%	—	—	4.34

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	79.9%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals	20.1%	27.1%	—	—	3.68

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	70.9%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
De Graafschap to score 2+ in a row	42.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
FC Emmen to score 2+ in a row	42.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Either team to score 3+ in a row	30.5%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
De Graafschap to score 3+ in a row	15.9%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
FC Emmen to score 3+ in a row	15.6%	16.3%	—	—	6.15

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen corners (+3.5)	87.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
FC Emmen corners (+2.5)	81.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
De Graafschap corners (+3.5)	75.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
FC Emmen corners (+1.5)	73.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
De Graafschap corners (+2.5)	66.7%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
De Graafschap corners (+1.5)	56.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
FC Emmen corners (-1.5)	43.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
FC Emmen corners (-2.5)	33.3%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
De Graafschap corners (-1.5)	26.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
FC Emmen corners (-3.5)	24.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
De Graafschap corners (-2.5)	18.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
De Graafschap corners (-3.5)	12.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	41.4%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	30.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
0-8 corners	28.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	80.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	71.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	67.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 9.5 corners	61.7%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	58.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	51.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	48.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	41.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	38.3%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	32.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 8.5 corners	28.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	19.4%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	8.2%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.53
1-2	7.9%	7.4%	7.4%	0.99×	13.53
2-1	7.8%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.53
2-2	7.2%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.53
Any other score	7.8%	7.4%	4.7%	1.57×	13.53
0-0	2.2%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	57.67
0-1	4.9%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	57.65
0-2	4.3%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	57.66
0-3	2.6%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	57.67
0-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	57.67
1-0	4.9%	1.7%	7.7%	0.23×	57.65
1-3	4.9%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	57.65
1-4	2.2%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	57.67
2-0	4.2%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	57.66
2-3	4.5%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	57.66
2-4	2.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	57.67
3-0	2.6%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	57.67
3-1	4.8%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	57.65
3-2	4.4%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	57.66
3-3	2.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	57.67
3-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	57.67
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	57.67
4-1	2.2%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	57.67
4-2	2.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	57.67
4-3	1.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	57.67
4-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.1%	13.97×	57.68

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (2nd half DNB)	52.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
FC Emmen (2nd half DNB)	47.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen leading at HT (DNB)	52.3%	56.0%	—	—	1.79
De Graafschap leading at HT (DNB)	47.7%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen or De Graafschap (12)	78.9%	75.4%	77.7%	0.97×	1.33
De Graafschap or draw (X2)	60.8%	63.8%	55.6%	1.15×	1.57
FC Emmen or draw (1X)	60.3%	63.8%	66.6%	0.96×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen or draw at HT	69.5%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
De Graafschap or draw at HT	66.6%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
FC Emmen or De Graafschap at HT	63.8%	62.1%	—	—	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap or draw (1UP)	60.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
FC Emmen or draw (1UP)	60.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen or De Graafschap in 2nd half	70.7%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
De Graafschap or draw in 2nd half	66.2%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
FC Emmen or draw in 2nd half	63.0%	64.1%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	55.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Neither half drawn	44.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen (DNB)	49.7%	50.0%	57.1%	0.88×	2.00
De Graafschap (DNB)	50.3%	50.0%	42.9%	1.16×	2.00

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to score first	49.1%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
FC Emmen to score first	48.7%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
No goal scored	2.2%	4.2%	—	—	23.59

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	70.6%	62.8%	58.7%	1.07×	1.59
Not both teams to score	29.4%	37.2%	41.3%	0.90×	2.69

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	62.4%	50.1%	49.3%	1.02×	2.00
Not both score & under 2.5	20.5%	28.4%	28.4%	1.00×	3.53
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.4%	13.0%	0.64×	11.94
Both score & under 2.5	8.2%	8.4%	9.6%	0.88×	11.94

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	69.7%	74.2%	79.0%	0.94×	1.35
Both teams to score 2+	30.3%	25.8%	21.0%	1.23×	3.88

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	56.6%	66.1%	—	—	1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half	43.4%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	40.5%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
Both score 2nd half only	31.0%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
Both score 1st half only	16.1%	15.6%	—	—	6.41
Both score in both halves	12.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.33

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	71.5%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	28.5%	20.3%	—	—	4.93

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	69.2%	67.0%	—	—	1.49
A half without a goal	30.8%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	42.3%	41.9%	37.3%	1.12×	2.39
2-3 goals	37.7%	35.0%	41.1%	0.85×	2.86
0-1 goals	12.0%	17.1%	18.6%	0.92×	5.84
7+ goals	8.1%	7.6%	3.2%	2.37×	13.10

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to score exactly 1	29.1%	27.6%	30.8%	0.90×	3.62
De Graafschap to score 3+	28.3%	27.6%	18.5%	1.49×	3.62
De Graafschap to score exactly 2	26.9%	27.6%	23.4%	1.18×	3.62
De Graafschap to score exactly 0	15.7%	19.5%	27.5%	0.71×	5.13

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen to score exactly 1	29.3%	26.2%	30.4%	0.86×	3.82
FC Emmen to score 3+	27.9%	26.2%	25.4%	1.03×	3.82
FC Emmen to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.2%	25.8%	1.01×	3.82
FC Emmen to score exactly 0	15.9%	19.2%	18.6%	1.03×	5.22

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	36.2%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
FC Emmen leading at HT	33.4%	33.7%	—	—	2.96
De Graafschap leading at HT	30.5%	33.6%	—	—	2.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap -1: 1	60.3%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
De Graafschap -1: 2	21.0%	23.6%	—	—	4.23
De Graafschap -1: X	18.8%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (0:1)	60.8%	61.5%	55.6%	1.11×	1.63
FC Emmen (0:1)	20.6%	24.4%	24.4%	1.00×	4.10
Draw (0:1)	18.6%	17.8%	20.1%	0.88×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (0:2)	79.4%	79.6%	75.6%	1.05×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	11.6%	10.8%	12.7%	0.86×	9.23
FC Emmen (0:2)	9.0%	7.7%	11.9%	0.65×	12.99

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (0:3)	91.0%	92.7%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.7%	5.9%	5.7%	1.03×	16.95
FC Emmen (0:3)	3.3%	2.4%	6.3%	0.37×	42.32

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (0:4)	96.7%	98.1%	93.7%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.3%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	81.59
FC Emmen (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	81.72

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen (1:0)	60.3%	65.3%	66.6%	0.98×	1.53
De Graafschap (1:0)	21.0%	21.7%	15.4%	1.41×	4.60
Draw (1:0)	18.8%	17.1%	18.1%	0.94×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen (2:0)	79.0%	80.0%	84.6%	0.95×	1.25
Draw (2:0)	11.7%	10.4%	8.8%	1.18×	9.62
De Graafschap (2:0)	9.2%	6.6%	6.7%	0.98×	15.24

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.3%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	20.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen to concede	84.3%	80.9%	72.5%	1.12×	1.24
FC Emmen clean sheet	15.7%	19.1%	27.5%	0.69×	5.25

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen to concede in 1st half	52.3%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
FC Emmen clean sheet in 1st half	47.7%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen to concede in 2nd half	67.1%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
FC Emmen clean sheet in 2nd half	32.9%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen over 2.5 corners	89.4%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
FC Emmen over 3.5 corners	78.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
FC Emmen over 4.5 corners	65.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
FC Emmen under 6.5 corners	61.8%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
FC Emmen over 5.5 corners	51.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
FC Emmen under 5.5 corners	48.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
FC Emmen over 6.5 corners	38.2%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
FC Emmen under 4.5 corners	34.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
FC Emmen under 3.5 corners	21.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
FC Emmen under 2.5 corners	10.6%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen under 3.5 goals	88.5%	87.2%	89.8%	0.97×	1.15
FC Emmen over 0.5 goals	84.1%	81.9%	81.4%	1.01×	1.22
FC Emmen under 2.5 goals	72.1%	74.3%	74.6%	1.00×	1.35
FC Emmen over 1.5 goals	54.8%	52.8%	51.1%	1.03×	1.90
FC Emmen under 1.5 goals	45.2%	47.2%	48.9%	0.97×	2.12
FC Emmen over 2.5 goals	27.9%	25.7%	25.4%	1.01×	3.89
FC Emmen under 0.5 goals	15.9%	18.1%	18.6%	0.97×	5.54
FC Emmen over 3.5 goals	11.5%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.83

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen under 1.5 in 1st half	81.2%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
FC Emmen under 0.5 in 1st half	45.4%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
FC Emmen over 0.5 in 1st half	54.6%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
FC Emmen over 1.5 in 1st half	18.8%	15.9%	—	—	6.31

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen scores more in 2nd half	40.9%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
FC Emmen scores equally in both	32.1%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
FC Emmen scores more in 1st half	27.0%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (home no bet)	65.3%	63.2%	59.9%	1.06×	1.58
Draw (home no bet)	34.7%	36.8%	40.1%	0.92×	2.72

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen even goals	51.3%	50.4%	51.7%	0.97×	1.98
FC Emmen odd goals	48.7%	49.6%	48.3%	1.03×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	21.6%	24.1%	—	—	4.14
HT 1-0	17.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.36
HT 0-1	16.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	12.6%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
Any other HT score	8.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
HT 2-0	6.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 0-2	5.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
HT 2-1	5.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
HT 1-2	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.36
HT 2-2	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.57

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen at HT / FC Emmen at FT	23.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
De Graafschap at HT / De Graafschap at FT	22.4%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / De Graafschap at FT	13.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / FC Emmen at FT	12.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.3%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
FC Emmen at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.71
De Graafschap at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.74
FC Emmen at HT / De Graafschap at FT	3.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
De Graafschap at HT / FC Emmen at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.80

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to score last	49.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
FC Emmen to score last	48.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
No goal scored	2.2%	4.2%	—	—	23.59

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.8%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
De Graafschap to lead by 1 at any time	60.3%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
FC Emmen to lead by 1 at any time	59.9%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	59.1%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
De Graafschap to lead by 2 at any time	30.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
FC Emmen to lead by 2 at any time	29.7%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
De Graafschap to lead by 3 at any time	12.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
FC Emmen to lead by 3 at any time	12.3%	10.5%	—	—	9.56

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen most corners	53.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
De Graafschap most corners	35.9%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	81.0%	83.3%	86.2%	0.97×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.9%	78.5%	78.3%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.2%	72.3%	72.5%	1.00×	1.38
1-4 goals	66.7%	68.8%	74.1%	0.93×	1.45
3-6 goals	63.2%	63.2%	59.1%	1.07×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.0%	59.3%	60.3%	0.98×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.5%	53.4%	53.2%	1.00×	1.87
1-3 goals	47.4%	48.5%	54.8%	0.88×	2.06
4-6 goals	42.3%	43.6%	37.3%	1.17×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.2%	43.6%	41.1%	1.06×	2.30
2-3 goals	37.7%	39.3%	41.1%	0.96×	2.55
4-5 goals	33.5%	35.3%	31.5%	1.12×	2.83
1-2 goals	26.5%	30.6%	33.1%	0.92×	3.27
5-6 goals	23.0%	24.8%	18.1%	1.37×	4.04
7+ goals	8.1%	9.0%	3.2%	2.78×	11.15

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap never behind	37.9%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
FC Emmen never behind	37.5%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.5%	51.0%	49.6%	1.03×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.5%	49.0%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.2%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.8%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.5%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.5%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.8%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	88.0%	87.5%	81.4%	1.07×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	83.2%	82.2%	90.9%	0.90×	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	71.3%	72.4%	62.2%	1.16×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	69.0%	66.0%	78.8%	0.84×	1.52
Over 3.5 goals	50.3%	53.0%	40.4%	1.31×	1.89
Under 3.5 goals	49.7%	47.0%	59.6%	0.79×	2.13
Over 4.5 goals	31.0%	34.0%	21.2%	1.60×	2.94
Under 2.5 goals	28.7%	27.6%	37.8%	0.73×	3.62
Over 5.5 goals	16.8%	17.8%	9.1%	1.97×	5.61
Under 1.5 goals	12.0%	12.5%	18.6%	0.67×	7.97
Under 0.5 goals	2.2%	4.6%	4.8%	0.95×	21.78

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	91.2%	92.4%	96.6%	0.96×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	85.6%	86.6%	77.0%	1.13×	1.16
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	80.4%	80.5%	89.7%	0.90×	1.24
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.7%	61.6%	51.7%	1.19×	1.62
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	61.5%	61.6%	73.7%	0.84×	1.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	38.5%	38.4%	26.3%	1.46×	2.61
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.3%	38.4%	48.3%	0.79×	2.61
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	19.6%	19.5%	10.3%	1.89×	5.12
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	14.4%	13.4%	23.0%	0.58×	7.47
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	8.8%	7.6%	3.4%	2.22×	13.14

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	80.1%	86.1%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	78.4%	78.9%	—	—	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	54.8%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half	45.2%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Under 0.5 in 1st half	21.6%	21.1%	—	—	4.73
Over 2.5 in 1st half	19.9%	13.9%	—	—	7.21

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	88.5%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	63.4%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	63.4%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	36.6%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	36.6%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	11.5%	14.6%	—	—	6.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap not to score in both halves	64.9%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
FC Emmen not to score in both halves	64.5%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
FC Emmen to score in both halves	35.5%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
De Graafschap to score in both halves	35.1%	36.4%	—	—	2.75

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	70.6%	66.2%	58.7%	1.13×	1.51
Only De Graafschap scores	13.7%	11.1%	13.9%	0.80×	9.01
Only FC Emmen scores	13.5%	11.1%	22.8%	0.49×	9.01
Neither team scores	2.2%	4.6%	4.8%	0.95×	21.68

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	20.9%	22.4%	21.8%	1.03×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	19.3%	17.6%	19.4%	0.91×	5.70
Exactly 2 goals	16.7%	17.5%	19.4%	0.91×	5.70
6 or more goals	16.8%	17.5%	9.1%	1.94×	5.70
Exactly 5 goals	14.2%	12.1%	12.3%	0.98×	8.30
Exactly 1 goals	9.8%	7.8%	13.9%	0.56×	12.85
Exactly 0 goals	2.2%	4.5%	4.8%	0.93×	22.25

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	33.2%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	25.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
No goals in 1st half	21.6%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	19.9%	15.3%	—	—	6.53

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	63.4%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	25.1%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
No goals in 2nd half	11.5%	14.4%	—	—	6.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap not to win both halves	88.8%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
FC Emmen not to win both halves	88.8%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
FC Emmen to win both halves	11.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
De Graafschap to win both halves	11.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.31

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to win either half	56.2%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
FC Emmen to win either half	55.9%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
FC Emmen to win neither half	44.1%	40.6%	—	—	2.47
De Graafschap to win neither half	43.8%	40.6%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Emmen not to win to nil	86.5%	87.9%	77.2%	1.14×	1.14
De Graafschap not to win to nil	86.3%	87.9%	86.1%	1.02×	1.14
De Graafschap to win to nil	13.7%	12.1%	13.9%	0.87×	8.28
FC Emmen to win to nil	13.5%	12.1%	22.8%	0.53×	8.28

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	21.1%	24.2%	22.3%	1.08×	4.14
FC Emmen by 1	18.6%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.92
De Graafschap by 1	18.8%	16.9%	18.1%	0.93×	5.92
FC Emmen by 2	11.6%	11.7%	12.7%	0.93×	8.53
De Graafschap by 2	11.7%	11.7%	8.8%	1.33×	8.53
FC Emmen by 3+	9.0%	7.3%	11.9%	0.61×	13.76
De Graafschap by 3+	9.2%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.76

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.