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FC Emmen v FC Den Bosch — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 30 October 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
FC Emmen win
46.6%
model 45.0%
Draw
22.4%
model 21.5%
FC Den Bosch win
31.0%
model 33.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 9.2%
  2. 2-1 8.8%
  3. 1-2 7.5%
  4. 2-2 6.9%
  5. 1-0 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.565.8% Under 2.534.2%
BTTS yes65.8% BTTS no34.2%
FC Emmen 1+84.0% FC Emmen 2+54.7%
FC Den Bosch 1+78.9% FC Den Bosch 2+46.0%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.56. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
52/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Emmen have an estimated 46.6% win probability, against 31.0% for FC Den Bosch and 22.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.83 for FC Emmen and 1.55 for FC Den Bosch.

Why FC Emmen

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why FC Den Bosch can win

Nothing in the data singles out FC Den Bosch.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Emmen, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for FC Den Bosch, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Emmen: 50% possession, 18.8 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Den Bosch: 49% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Emmen's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

FC Emmen are the model's most likely outcome at 46.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.2%. Confidence 52/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.73–1.70 1-1 9% 66% 67%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen to win 39.8% 36.4% 44.4% 0.82× 2.74
FC Den Bosch to win 38.5% 36.4% 33.5% 1.09× 2.75
Draw 21.6% 24.4% 22.3% 1.10× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen & both teams score 24.3% 21.9% 21.6% 1.01× 4.57
FC Den Bosch & both teams score 23.6% 21.9% 19.7% 1.11× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 18.8% 17.9% 17.7% 1.01× 5.58
FC Emmen & not both score 15.5% 17.9% 22.9% 0.78× 5.58
FC Den Bosch & not both score 15.0% 13.3% 13.9% 0.95× 7.54
Draw & not both score 2.8% 4.9% 4.7% 1.03× 20.60
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen & over 1.5 33.7% 30.9% 36.8% 0.84× 3.24
FC Den Bosch & over 1.5 32.5% 30.9% 27.2% 1.13× 3.24
FC Emmen & over 2.5 28.9% 26.0% 30.6% 0.85× 3.84
FC Den Bosch & over 2.5 27.9% 26.0% 23.6% 1.10× 3.84
FC Emmen & under 3.5 22.0% 21.7% 25.9% 0.84× 4.62
FC Den Bosch & under 3.5 21.4% 21.7% 19.8% 1.09× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 18.8% 18.0% 17.7% 1.02× 5.56
FC Emmen & over 3.5 17.8% 18.0% 18.7% 0.96× 5.56
FC Den Bosch & over 3.5 17.1% 18.0% 13.8% 1.30× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 11.9% 12.9% 14.2% 0.91× 7.77
Draw & under 3.5 11.9% 12.9% 14.2% 0.91× 7.77
FC Emmen & under 2.5 11.0% 12.9% 13.9% 0.92× 7.77
FC Den Bosch & under 2.5 10.7% 12.9% 10.0% 1.29× 7.77
Draw & over 2.5 9.7% 7.9% 8.2% 0.96× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 9.7% 7.9% 8.2% 0.96× 12.69
FC Emmen & under 1.5 6.1% 7.9% 7.7% 1.02× 12.70
FC Den Bosch & under 1.5 6.0% 7.9% 6.3% 1.24× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 2.8% 4.8% 4.7% 1.01× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen (1UP) 59.3% 58.2% 1.72
FC Den Bosch (1UP) 58.3% 58.2% 1.72
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen (2UP) 39.8% 37.3% 2.68
FC Den Bosch (2UP) 38.5% 37.2% 2.69
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to win 2nd half 35.6% 36.0% 2.78
FC Emmen to win 2nd half 33.9% 34.5% 2.90
2nd half drawn 30.5% 34.5% 2.90
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (+2.5) 91.4% 92.1% 88.1% 1.05× 1.09
FC Den Bosch (+1.5) 79.7% 78.5% 75.6% 1.04× 1.28
FC Emmen (+0.5) 61.5% 62.9% 66.5% 0.95× 1.59
FC Den Bosch (+0.5) 60.2% 62.9% 55.6% 1.13× 1.59
FC Emmen (-0.5) 39.8% 37.1% 44.4% 0.84× 2.70
FC Den Bosch (-0.5) 38.5% 37.1% 33.5% 1.11× 2.70
FC Emmen (-1.5) 20.3% 21.5% 24.4% 0.88× 4.64
FC Emmen (-2.5) 8.6% 7.9% 11.9% 0.66× 12.62
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to concede 82.2% 81.3% 81.5% 1.00× 1.23
FC Den Bosch clean sheet 17.8% 18.7% 18.5% 1.01× 5.35
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch clean sheet in 1st half 47.6% 50.7% 1.97
FC Den Bosch to concede in 1st half 52.4% 49.3% 2.03
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch over 2.5 corners 81.2% 81.5% 1.23
FC Den Bosch under 6.5 corners 76.9% 75.9% 1.32
FC Den Bosch over 3.5 corners 66.1% 67.5% 1.48
FC Den Bosch under 5.5 corners 65.0% 61.8% 1.62
FC Den Bosch under 4.5 corners 50.1% 53.1% 1.88
FC Den Bosch over 4.5 corners 49.9% 46.9% 2.13
FC Den Bosch over 5.5 corners 35.0% 38.2% 2.62
FC Den Bosch under 3.5 corners 33.9% 32.5% 3.08
FC Den Bosch over 6.5 corners 23.1% 24.1% 4.16
FC Den Bosch under 2.5 corners 18.8% 18.5% 5.39
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch under 3.5 goals 90.8% 92.3% 93.0% 0.99× 1.08
FC Den Bosch over 0.5 goals 81.7% 81.4% 72.5% 1.12× 1.23
FC Den Bosch under 2.5 goals 75.8% 76.2% 81.5% 0.94× 1.31
FC Den Bosch over 1.5 goals 50.5% 53.7% 41.9% 1.28× 1.86
FC Den Bosch under 1.5 goals 49.5% 46.3% 58.1% 0.80× 2.16
FC Den Bosch over 2.5 goals 24.2% 23.8% 18.5% 1.28× 4.21
FC Den Bosch under 0.5 goals 18.3% 18.6% 27.5% 0.68× 5.38
FC Den Bosch over 3.5 goals 9.3% 7.7% 7.0% 1.10× 13.02
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch under 1.5 in 1st half 85.2% 88.9% 1.13
FC Den Bosch under 0.5 in 1st half 50.7% 56.1% 1.78
FC Den Bosch over 0.5 in 1st half 49.3% 43.9% 2.28
FC Den Bosch over 1.5 in 1st half 14.8% 11.1% 9.03
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen (away no bet) 64.8% 62.1% 66.6% 0.93× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 35.2% 37.9% 33.4% 1.13× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch even goals 51.7% 52.8% 57.1% 0.92× 1.89
FC Den Bosch odd goals 48.3% 47.2% 42.9% 1.10× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 75.3% 82.0% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 24.7% 18.0% 5.57
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 76.1% 72.5% 1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals 23.9% 27.5% 3.64
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 67.1% 62.2% 1.61
FC Emmen to score 2+ in a row 39.8% 36.6% 2.73
FC Den Bosch to score 2+ in a row 38.8% 36.6% 2.74
Either team to score 3+ in a row 27.4% 25.0% 3.99
FC Emmen to score 3+ in a row 14.4% 12.2% 8.18
FC Den Bosch to score 3+ in a row 13.7% 12.2% 8.19
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen corners (+3.5) 91.0% 89.6% 1.12
FC Emmen corners (+2.5) 86.0% 84.5% 1.18
FC Emmen corners (+1.5) 79.5% 74.9% 1.34
FC Den Bosch corners (+3.5) 68.0% 65.8% 1.52
FC Den Bosch corners (+2.5) 58.5% 57.1% 1.75
FC Emmen corners (-1.5) 51.6% 52.5% 1.91
FC Den Bosch corners (+1.5) 48.4% 47.5% 2.10
FC Emmen corners (-2.5) 41.5% 42.9% 2.33
FC Emmen corners (-3.5) 32.0% 34.2% 2.92
FC Den Bosch corners (-1.5) 20.5% 25.1% 3.98
FC Den Bosch corners (-2.5) 14.0% 15.5% 6.45
FC Den Bosch corners (-3.5) 9.0% 10.4% 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 45.1% 41.7% 2.40
9-11 corners 29.4% 31.2% 3.20
0-8 corners 25.5% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 82.8% 80.8% 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 74.5% 72.6% 1.38
Over 9.5 corners 65.1% 67.7% 1.48
Under 12.5 corners 64.2% 63.4% 1.58
Over 10.5 corners 55.0% 57.8% 1.73
Under 11.5 corners 54.9% 53.3% 1.88
Over 11.5 corners 45.1% 46.7% 2.14
Under 10.5 corners 45.0% 42.3% 2.37
Over 12.5 corners 35.8% 36.6% 2.73
Under 9.5 corners 34.9% 32.3% 3.09
Under 8.5 corners 25.5% 27.4% 3.66
Under 7.5 corners 17.2% 19.2% 5.20
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 9.1% 7.4% 9.6% 0.77× 13.48
1-2 8.1% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.48
2-1 8.3% 7.4% 8.1% 0.92× 13.48
2-2 7.0% 7.4% 6.7% 1.10× 13.48
0-1 6.0% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.48
1-0 6.1% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.48
Any other score 6.0% 7.4% 4.7% 1.57× 13.48
0-2 4.7% 1.7% 3.7% 0.46× 58.46
2-0 4.9% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.46
3-1 4.7% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.46
0-0 2.8% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.47
0-3 2.7% 1.7% 2.6% 0.65× 58.47
0-4 1.1% 1.7% 1.2% 1.37× 58.48
1-3 4.6% 1.7% 3.7% 0.46× 58.46
1-4 1.9% 1.7% 2.2% 0.76× 58.48
2-3 4.0% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.47
2-4 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.48
3-0 2.8% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.47
3-2 4.0% 1.7% 4.2% 0.40× 58.47
3-3 2.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.48
3-4 1.0% 1.7% 1.2% 1.37× 58.48
4-0 1.2% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.48
4-1 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.25× 58.48
4-2 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.48
4-3 1.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3.44× 58.48
4-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.1% 13.75× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen leading at HT (DNB) 53.1% 56.0% 1.79
FC Den Bosch leading at HT (DNB) 46.9% 44.0% 2.27
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen or FC Den Bosch (12) 78.4% 75.6% 77.7% 0.97× 1.32
FC Emmen or draw (1X) 61.5% 63.6% 66.5% 0.96× 1.57
FC Den Bosch or draw (X2) 60.2% 63.6% 55.6% 1.14× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen or draw at HT 70.8% 74.3% 1.35
FC Den Bosch or draw at HT 67.0% 66.4% 1.51
FC Emmen or FC Den Bosch at HT 62.2% 62.1% 1.61
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen or draw (1UP) 61.5% 71.6% 1.40
FC Den Bosch or draw (1UP) 60.2% 71.5% 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen or FC Den Bosch in 2nd half 69.5% 65.5% 1.53
FC Den Bosch or draw in 2nd half 66.1% 65.5% 1.53
FC Emmen or draw in 2nd half 64.4% 64.0% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 57.3% 58.0% 1.72
Neither half drawn 42.7% 42.0% 2.38
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen (DNB) 50.8% 50.9% 57.0% 0.89× 1.97
FC Den Bosch (DNB) 49.2% 49.1% 43.0% 1.14× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen to score first 49.0% 45.6% 2.19
FC Den Bosch to score first 48.2% 45.6% 2.19
No goal scored 2.8% 4.3% 23.48
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 66.7% 58.2% 58.7% 0.99× 1.72
Not both teams to score 33.3% 41.8% 41.3% 1.01× 2.39
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 57.6% 47.2% 49.3% 0.96× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 24.5% 27.8% 28.4% 0.98× 3.60
Both score & under 2.5 9.1% 8.4% 9.6% 0.87× 11.95
Not both score & over 2.5 8.9% 8.4% 13.1% 0.64× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 74.0% 80.6% 79.0% 1.02× 1.24
Both teams to score 2+ 26.0% 19.4% 21.0% 0.92× 5.16
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 60.2% 65.9% 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 39.8% 34.1% 2.93
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 44.8% 50.4% 1.99
Both score 2nd half only 29.5% 26.6% 3.76
Both score 1st half only 15.4% 15.5% 6.44
Both score in both halves 10.3% 10.7% 9.34
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 74.3% 80.0% 1.25
Both teams to score by HT 25.7% 20.0% 5.01
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 65.4% 66.6% 1.50
A half without a goal 34.6% 33.4% 3.00
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 40.4% 42.1% 41.2% 1.02× 2.38
4-6 goals 38.7% 35.1% 37.3% 0.94× 2.85
0-1 goals 14.9% 17.0% 18.5% 0.92× 5.90
7+ goals 5.9% 7.6% 3.2% 2.34× 13.22
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 1 31.1% 33.8% 30.7% 1.10× 2.96
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 2 26.4% 27.4% 23.5% 1.17× 3.65
FC Den Bosch to score 3+ 24.2% 22.4% 18.5% 1.21× 4.46
FC Den Bosch to score exactly 0 18.3% 19.6% 27.5% 0.71× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen to score exactly 1 30.7% 32.6% 30.5% 1.07× 3.06
FC Emmen to score exactly 2 26.5% 26.5% 25.9% 1.03× 3.77
FC Emmen to score 3+ 25.0% 23.3% 25.4% 0.92× 4.30
FC Emmen to score exactly 0 17.8% 18.9% 18.5% 1.02× 5.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 37.8% 37.9% 2.64
FC Emmen leading at HT 33.0% 33.6% 2.98
FC Den Bosch leading at HT 29.2% 25.7% 3.89
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen -1: 2 60.2% 62.4% 1.60
FC Emmen -1: 1 20.3% 23.6% 4.24
FC Emmen -1: X 19.5% 17.5% 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:1) 60.2% 61.4% 55.6% 1.10× 1.63
FC Emmen (0:1) 20.3% 24.3% 24.4% 1.00× 4.12
Draw (0:1) 19.5% 17.8% 20.1% 0.88× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:2) 79.7% 79.5% 75.6% 1.05× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 11.7% 11.0% 12.6% 0.87× 9.12
FC Emmen (0:2) 8.6% 7.7% 11.9% 0.65× 12.94
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:3) 91.4% 92.6% 88.1% 1.05× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% 1.02× 17.19
FC Emmen (0:3) 3.0% 2.4% 6.3% 0.37× 42.13
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (0:4) 97.0% 98.1% 93.7% 1.05× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.1% 1.2% 4.4% 0.28× 83.43
FC Emmen (0:4) 0.9% 1.2% 2.1% 0.57× 83.58
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen (1:0) 61.5% 65.0% 66.5% 0.98× 1.54
FC Den Bosch (1:0) 19.4% 17.0% 15.4% 1.11× 5.87
Draw (1:0) 19.2% 17.0% 18.2% 0.94× 5.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen (2:0) 80.6% 84.5% 84.6% 1.00× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 11.3% 10.4% 8.8% 1.17× 9.64
FC Den Bosch (2:0) 8.0% 6.5% 6.7% 0.96× 15.48
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 51.5% 50.2% 1.99
1st half highest scoring 27.6% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 21.0% 24.1% 4.16
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen to concede 81.7% 80.8% 72.5% 1.11× 1.24
FC Emmen clean sheet 18.3% 19.2% 27.5% 0.70× 5.20
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen clean sheet in 1st half 50.7% 56.1% 1.78
FC Emmen to concede in 1st half 49.3% 43.9% 2.28
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen over 2.5 corners 92.2% 89.3% 1.12
FC Emmen over 3.5 corners 83.7% 81.0% 1.24
FC Emmen over 4.5 corners 72.2% 71.9% 1.39
FC Emmen over 5.5 corners 59.2% 57.5% 1.74
FC Emmen under 6.5 corners 53.9% 52.8% 1.89
FC Emmen over 6.5 corners 46.1% 47.2% 2.12
FC Emmen under 5.5 corners 40.8% 42.5% 2.35
FC Emmen under 4.5 corners 27.8% 28.1% 3.56
FC Emmen under 3.5 corners 16.3% 19.0% 5.25
FC Emmen under 2.5 corners 7.8% 10.7% 9.37
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen under 3.5 goals 90.3% 92.2% 89.8% 1.03× 1.08
FC Emmen over 0.5 goals 82.2% 82.1% 81.5% 1.01× 1.22
FC Emmen under 2.5 goals 75.0% 77.7% 74.6% 1.04× 1.29
FC Emmen over 1.5 goals 51.5% 53.2% 51.1% 1.04× 1.88
FC Emmen under 1.5 goals 48.5% 46.8% 48.9% 0.96× 2.14
FC Emmen over 2.5 goals 25.0% 22.3% 25.4% 0.88× 4.49
FC Emmen under 0.5 goals 17.8% 17.9% 18.5% 0.97× 5.59
FC Emmen over 3.5 goals 9.7% 7.8% 10.2% 0.76× 12.89
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen under 1.5 in 1st half 82.9% 84.3% 1.19
FC Emmen under 0.5 in 1st half 47.6% 50.9% 1.97
FC Emmen over 0.5 in 1st half 52.4% 49.1% 2.04
FC Emmen over 1.5 in 1st half 17.1% 15.7% 6.36
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch (home no bet) 64.1% 60.2% 60.0% 1.00× 1.66
Draw (home no bet) 35.9% 39.8% 40.0% 1.00× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen even goals 51.6% 50.6% 51.7% 0.98× 1.98
FC Emmen odd goals 48.4% 49.4% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 24.1% 24.1% 4.14
HT 1-0 18.0% 18.7% 5.34
HT 0-1 16.5% 18.7% 5.34
HT 1-1 12.1% 10.9% 9.16
Any other HT score 7.0% 7.1% 14.05
HT 2-0 6.7% 7.1% 14.06
HT 0-2 5.6% 7.1% 14.07
HT 2-1 4.5% 2.3% 43.28
HT 1-2 4.1% 2.3% 43.31
HT 2-2 1.5% 2.3% 43.50
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen at HT / FC Emmen at FT 23.9% 21.9% 4.58
FC Den Bosch at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT 21.4% 21.8% 4.59
Draw at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT 13.7% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / FC Emmen at FT 13.1% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.0% 12.7% 7.90
FC Emmen at HT / Draw at FT 5.7% 6.0% 16.72
FC Den Bosch at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% 28.77
FC Emmen at HT / FC Den Bosch at FT 3.4% 3.5% 28.83
FC Den Bosch at HT / FC Emmen at FT 2.9% 3.5% 28.85
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen to score last 49.0% 46.8% 2.14
FC Den Bosch to score last 48.2% 46.8% 2.14
No goal scored 2.8% 4.3% 23.48
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 97.2% 95.7% 1.05
FC Emmen to lead by 1 at any time 59.3% 55.2% 1.81
FC Den Bosch to lead by 1 at any time 58.3% 55.1% 1.81
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 55.8% 55.0% 1.82
FC Emmen to lead by 2 at any time 28.7% 25.5% 3.92
FC Den Bosch to lead by 2 at any time 27.6% 25.5% 3.93
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 22.4% 19.6% 5.10
FC Emmen to lead by 3 at any time 11.5% 10.5% 9.57
FC Den Bosch to lead by 3 at any time 10.9% 10.4% 9.58
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen most corners 61.8% 60.5% 1.65
FC Den Bosch most corners 28.7% 31.0% 3.23
Corners level 9.5% 8.5% 11.80
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.0% 83.5% 86.3% 0.97× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.2% 78.6% 78.4% 1.00× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.9% 72.4% 72.5% 1.00× 1.38
1-4 goals 71.2% 72.4% 74.1% 0.98× 1.38
3-6 goals 60.5% 63.4% 59.1% 1.07× 1.58
2-4 goals 59.1% 59.2% 60.3% 0.98× 1.69
3-5 goals 53.2% 53.2% 53.2% 1.00× 1.88
1-3 goals 52.6% 53.2% 55.0% 0.97× 1.88
2-3 goals 40.4% 43.6% 41.2% 1.06× 2.30
3-4 goals 40.5% 43.6% 41.0% 1.06× 2.30
4-6 goals 38.7% 39.2% 37.3% 1.05× 2.55
4-5 goals 31.4% 35.4% 31.5% 1.12× 2.83
1-2 goals 30.7% 35.4% 33.2% 1.06× 2.83
5-6 goals 20.1% 24.5% 18.2% 1.35× 4.09
7+ goals 5.9% 8.7% 3.2% 2.70× 11.46
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen never behind 38.9% 44.8% 2.23
FC Den Bosch never behind 37.9% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.1% 50.8% 49.5% 1.03× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.9% 49.2% 50.5% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.8% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 47.2% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.6% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.4% 48.0% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 97.2% 95.5% 95.3% 1.00× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 86.8% 87.6% 90.9% 0.96× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 85.1% 87.6% 81.5% 1.08× 1.14
Under 4.5 goals 74.0% 72.5% 78.7% 0.92× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 66.5% 66.2% 62.2% 1.06× 1.51
Under 3.5 goals 55.3% 58.8% 59.6% 0.99× 1.70
Over 3.5 goals 44.7% 41.2% 40.4% 1.02× 2.43
Under 2.5 goals 33.5% 33.8% 37.8% 0.89× 2.96
Over 4.5 goals 26.0% 27.5% 21.3% 1.29× 3.64
Under 1.5 goals 14.9% 12.4% 18.5% 0.67× 8.09
Over 5.5 goals 13.2% 12.4% 9.1% 1.36× 8.09
Under 0.5 goals 2.8% 4.5% 4.7% 0.95× 22.22
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 93.6% 92.5% 96.6% 0.96× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 84.8% 81.1% 89.7% 0.90× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 81.7% 81.0% 77.0% 1.05× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 68.0% 67.4% 73.7% 0.91× 1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 57.1% 55.4% 51.7% 1.07× 1.80
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 42.9% 44.6% 48.3% 0.92× 2.24
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 32.0% 32.6% 26.3% 1.24× 3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 18.3% 19.0% 23.0% 0.83× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 15.2% 18.9% 10.3% 1.83× 5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 6.4% 7.5% 3.4% 2.19× 13.27
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 82.8% 86.2% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 75.9% 78.7% 1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half 58.5% 62.8% 1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half 41.5% 37.2% 2.69
Under 0.5 in 1st half 24.1% 21.3% 4.70
Over 2.5 in 1st half 17.2% 13.8% 7.27
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 86.7% 85.3% 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 67.6% 67.5% 1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 59.3% 54.9% 1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 40.7% 45.1% 2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 32.4% 32.5% 3.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 13.3% 14.7% 6.81
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch not to score in both halves 68.5% 70.5% 1.42
FC Emmen not to score in both halves 67.2% 70.4% 1.42
FC Emmen to score in both halves 32.8% 29.6% 3.38
FC Den Bosch to score in both halves 31.5% 29.5% 3.39
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 66.7% 59.5% 58.7% 1.01× 1.68
Only FC Emmen scores 15.5% 16.1% 22.9% 0.70× 6.22
Only FC Den Bosch scores 15.0% 10.9% 13.9% 0.79× 9.13
Neither team scores 2.8% 4.6% 4.7% 0.97× 21.87
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.8% 22.6% 21.9% 1.03× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 18.6% 17.4% 19.4% 0.90× 5.74
Exactly 4 goals 18.7% 17.4% 19.3% 0.90× 5.74
6 or more goals 13.2% 12.1% 9.1% 1.33× 8.27
Exactly 5 goals 12.8% 12.1% 12.3% 0.98× 8.27
Exactly 1 goals 12.1% 12.1% 13.9% 0.87× 8.28
Exactly 0 goals 2.8% 4.4% 4.7% 0.93× 22.68
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 59.3% 53.5% 1.87
1 goal in 2nd half 27.4% 29.8% 3.36
No goals in 2nd half 13.3% 14.5% 6.90
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch not to win both halves 89.7% 88.0% 1.14
FC Emmen not to win both halves 88.9% 88.0% 1.14
FC Emmen to win both halves 11.1% 12.1% 8.30
FC Den Bosch to win both halves 10.3% 12.0% 8.32
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Emmen to win either half 55.8% 59.4% 1.68
FC Den Bosch to win either half 54.5% 55.0% 1.82
FC Den Bosch to win neither half 45.5% 45.0% 2.22
FC Emmen to win neither half 44.2% 40.6% 2.46
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Den Bosch not to win to nil 85.0% 88.2% 86.1% 1.02× 1.13
FC Emmen not to win to nil 84.5% 83.0% 77.1% 1.08× 1.20
FC Emmen to win to nil 15.5% 17.0% 22.9% 0.74× 5.90
FC Den Bosch to win to nil 15.0% 11.8% 13.9% 0.85× 8.48
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 21.6% 24.1% 22.3% 1.08× 4.14
FC Emmen by 1 19.5% 16.9% 20.1% 0.84× 5.91
FC Den Bosch by 1 19.2% 16.9% 18.2% 0.93× 5.91
FC Emmen by 2 11.7% 11.8% 12.6% 0.94× 8.48
FC Den Bosch by 2 11.3% 11.8% 8.8% 1.34× 8.48
FC Emmen by 3+ 8.6% 7.3% 11.9% 0.61× 13.78
FC Den Bosch by 3+ 8.0% 7.3% 6.7% 1.08× 13.78
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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