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FC Farul Constanta v UTA Arad — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · ROU-Liga 1 · 2627

ROU-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
FC Farul Constanta win
47.1%
model 46.2%
Draw
26.4%
model 26.6%
UTA Arad win
26.5%
model 27.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (476 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.6%
  2. 1-0 12.3%
  3. 2-1 9.0%
  4. 0-1 8.9%
  5. 2-0 8.7%

Goals

Over 2.544.5% Under 2.555.5%
BTTS yes48.8% BTTS no51.2%
FC Farul Constanta 1+76.0% FC Farul Constanta 2+41.7%
UTA Arad 1+64.3% UTA Arad 2+27.5%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.03. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
21/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Odd number of goals
Odd/Even · usually 48%
50.0% fair odds 2.00
moderate signal · 29370 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
UTA Arad not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 82%
82.7% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 12178 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • They have had 30 days' rest to UTA Arad's 6.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0230 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Farul Constanta have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 26.5% for UTA Arad and 26.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for FC Farul Constanta and 1.03 for UTA Arad.

Why FC Farul Constanta

They have had 30 days' rest to UTA Arad's 6.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.4%. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why UTA Arad can win

UTA Arad carry the stronger rating, 1508 Elo against 1471.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Farul Constanta, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for UTA Arad, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Farul Constanta: 53% possession, 18.6 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. UTA Arad: 51% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

FC Farul Constanta are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.43–1.03 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.34–1.09 1-1 13% 44% 49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta to win 46.2% 47.8% 43.3% 1.10× 2.09
UTA Arad to win 27.2% 27.3% 28.5% 0.96× 3.66
Draw 26.6% 27.3% 28.3% 0.96× 3.66
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta & not both score 27.2% 26.5% 24.0% 1.10× 3.78
FC Farul Constanta & both teams score 19.0% 18.2% 19.6% 0.93× 5.49
Draw & both teams score 18.0% 18.2% 20.3% 0.90× 5.49
UTA Arad & not both score 15.5% 18.2% 17.9% 1.02× 5.49
UTA Arad & both teams score 11.8% 12.6% 10.8% 1.17× 7.91
Draw & not both score 8.6% 7.7% 8.2% 0.94× 13.04
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta & under 3.5 34.2% 31.8% 31.6% 1.01× 3.15
FC Farul Constanta & over 1.5 33.9% 31.8% 31.7% 1.00× 3.15
FC Farul Constanta & over 2.5 25.2% 26.5% 24.7% 1.07× 3.78
FC Farul Constanta & under 2.5 21.0% 21.8% 18.8% 1.16× 4.59
Draw & under 2.5 21.1% 21.8% 22.1% 0.99× 4.59
Draw & under 3.5 21.1% 21.8% 22.1% 0.99× 4.59
UTA Arad & under 3.5 21.4% 21.8% 23.4% 0.93× 4.59
Draw & over 1.5 18.0% 17.7% 20.3% 0.87× 5.66
UTA Arad & over 1.5 18.4% 17.7% 19.8% 0.89× 5.66
UTA Arad & over 2.5 13.8% 12.5% 12.4% 1.01× 8.03
FC Farul Constanta & under 1.5 12.3% 12.5% 11.8% 1.06× 8.03
FC Farul Constanta & over 3.5 12.1% 12.5% 12.0% 1.04× 8.03
UTA Arad & under 2.5 13.4% 12.5% 16.4% 0.76× 8.03
Draw & under 1.5 8.6% 7.6% 8.2% 0.93× 13.17
UTA Arad & under 1.5 8.9% 7.6% 8.9% 0.85× 13.17
Draw & over 2.5 5.4% 7.6% 6.5% 1.17× 13.17
Draw & over 3.5 5.4% 7.6% 6.5% 1.17× 13.17
UTA Arad & over 3.5 5.8% 7.6% 5.3% 1.43× 13.17
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta (1UP) 60.2% 65.8% 1.52
UTA Arad (1UP) 43.4% 43.0% 2.33
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta (2UP) 46.2% 51.3% 1.95
UTA Arad (2UP) 27.2% 27.4% 3.65
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 37.5% 36.9% 2.71
FC Farul Constanta to win 2nd half 37.1% 36.8% 2.71
UTA Arad to win 2nd half 25.4% 29.6% 3.38
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad (+2.5) 91.4% 92.3% 92.6% 1.00× 1.08
UTA Arad (+1.5) 77.5% 78.3% 80.8% 0.97× 1.28
FC Farul Constanta (+0.5) 72.8% 72.8% 71.5% 1.02× 1.37
UTA Arad (+0.5) 53.8% 52.0% 56.7% 0.92× 1.92
FC Farul Constanta (-0.5) 46.2% 48.0% 43.3% 1.11× 2.08
UTA Arad (-0.5) 27.2% 27.2% 28.5% 0.95× 3.68
FC Farul Constanta (-1.5) 22.5% 21.8% 19.2% 1.13× 4.60
FC Farul Constanta (-2.5) 8.6% 7.7% 7.4% 1.04× 12.96
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad to concede 76.0% 78.6% 74.1% 1.06× 1.27
UTA Arad clean sheet 24.0% 21.4% 25.9% 0.83× 4.67
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad clean sheet in 1st half 54.1% 53.3% 1.88
UTA Arad to concede in 1st half 45.9% 46.7% 2.14
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad under 6.5 corners 78.9% 75.9% 1.32
UTA Arad over 2.5 corners 76.5% 75.9% 1.32
UTA Arad under 5.5 corners 68.3% 67.5% 1.48
UTA Arad over 3.5 corners 60.9% 61.8% 1.62
UTA Arad under 4.5 corners 54.7% 53.1% 1.88
UTA Arad over 4.5 corners 45.3% 46.9% 2.13
UTA Arad under 3.5 corners 39.1% 38.2% 2.62
UTA Arad over 5.5 corners 31.7% 32.5% 3.08
UTA Arad under 2.5 corners 23.5% 24.1% 4.16
UTA Arad over 6.5 corners 21.1% 24.1% 4.16
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad under 3.5 goals 97.9% 97.3% 97.9% 0.99× 1.03
UTA Arad under 2.5 goals 91.4% 92.1% 91.6% 1.00× 1.09
UTA Arad under 1.5 goals 72.5% 71.3% 70.9% 1.01× 1.40
UTA Arad over 0.5 goals 64.2% 63.7% 68.1% 0.94× 1.57
UTA Arad under 0.5 goals 35.8% 36.3% 31.9% 1.14× 2.76
UTA Arad over 1.5 goals 27.5% 28.7% 29.1% 0.99× 3.48
UTA Arad over 2.5 goals 8.6% 7.9% 8.4% 0.95× 12.61
UTA Arad over 3.5 goals 2.1% 2.7% 2.1% 1.28× 37.48
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad under 1.5 in 1st half 93.5% 93.7% 1.07
UTA Arad under 0.5 in 1st half 66.3% 66.8% 1.50
UTA Arad over 0.5 in 1st half 33.7% 33.2% 3.01
UTA Arad over 1.5 in 1st half 6.5% 6.3% 15.76
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta (away no bet) 63.5% 62.3% 60.5% 1.03× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 36.5% 37.7% 39.5% 0.95× 2.65
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad even goals 56.4% 56.5% 54.6% 1.03× 1.77
UTA Arad odd goals 43.6% 43.5% 45.4% 0.96× 2.30
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 88.6% 86.9% 1.15
Both halves over 1.5 goals 11.4% 13.1% 7.64
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 57.7% 60.3% 1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals 42.3% 39.7% 2.52
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 50.6% 52.1% 1.92
FC Farul Constanta to score 2+ in a row 34.7% 32.4% 3.09
UTA Arad to score 2+ in a row 20.5% 21.2% 4.72
Either team to score 3+ in a row 16.7% 17.3% 5.77
FC Farul Constanta to score 3+ in a row 11.9% 12.8% 7.84
UTA Arad to score 3+ in a row 4.9% 3.1% 32.32
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta corners (+3.5) 90.2% 89.6% 1.12
FC Farul Constanta corners (+2.5) 85.3% 84.5% 1.18
FC Farul Constanta corners (+1.5) 78.9% 74.8% 1.34
UTA Arad corners (+3.5) 66.7% 65.7% 1.52
UTA Arad corners (+2.5) 57.7% 57.1% 1.75
FC Farul Constanta corners (-1.5) 52.0% 52.5% 1.91
UTA Arad corners (+1.5) 48.0% 47.5% 2.10
FC Farul Constanta corners (-2.5) 42.3% 42.9% 2.33
FC Farul Constanta corners (-3.5) 33.3% 34.3% 2.92
UTA Arad corners (-1.5) 21.1% 25.2% 3.97
UTA Arad corners (-2.5) 14.7% 15.5% 6.45
UTA Arad corners (-3.5) 9.8% 10.4% 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 41.1% 38.6% 2.59
0-8 corners 30.8% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 28.1% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 77.9% 76.5% 1.31
Over 8.5 corners 69.2% 67.7% 1.48
Under 12.5 corners 67.2% 67.7% 1.48
Over 9.5 corners 59.8% 57.8% 1.73
Under 11.5 corners 58.9% 57.8% 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 50.3% 53.3% 1.88
Under 10.5 corners 49.7% 46.7% 2.14
Over 11.5 corners 41.1% 42.2% 2.37
Under 9.5 corners 40.2% 42.2% 2.37
Over 12.5 corners 32.8% 32.3% 3.10
Under 8.5 corners 30.8% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 22.1% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 12.3% 11.2% 11.8% 0.95× 8.90
1-1 12.6% 11.2% 14.1% 0.80× 8.90
1-2 6.5% 7.4% 6.1% 1.22× 13.49
2-0 8.7% 7.4% 7.2% 1.03× 13.48
2-1 9.0% 7.4% 10.1% 0.74× 13.48
0-0 8.6% 7.4% 8.2% 0.91× 13.48
0-1 8.9% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.48
1-3 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 58.11
1-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.29× 58.11
2-2 4.6% 1.7% 4.9% 0.35× 58.10
2-3 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.11
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 4.53× 58.11
3-0 4.2% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.10
3-1 4.3% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.10
3-2 2.2% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.11
3-3 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.11
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.53× 58.11
4-0 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 58.11
4-1 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.13× 58.11
4-2 0.8% 1.7% 0.4% 4.53× 58.11
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 3.02× 58.11
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 9.05× 58.11
Any other score 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.13× 58.11
0-2 4.5% 1.7% 7.6% 0.23× 58.10
0-3 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.29× 58.11
0-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.6% 3.02× 58.11
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta leading at HT (DNB) 62.4% 62.9% 1.59
UTA Arad leading at HT (DNB) 37.6% 37.1% 2.70
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta or UTA Arad (12) 73.4% 72.7% 71.7% 1.01× 1.38
FC Farul Constanta or draw (1X) 72.8% 72.7% 71.5% 1.02× 1.38
UTA Arad or draw (X2) 53.8% 52.2% 56.7% 0.92× 1.91
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta or draw at HT 79.5% 76.5% 1.31
UTA Arad or draw at HT 66.0% 67.7% 1.48
FC Farul Constanta or UTA Arad at HT 54.5% 54.1% 1.85
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta or draw (1UP) 72.8% 79.5% 1.26
UTA Arad or draw (1UP) 53.8% 60.4% 1.66
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta or draw in 2nd half 74.6% 70.4% 1.42
UTA Arad or draw in 2nd half 62.9% 63.2% 1.58
FC Farul Constanta or UTA Arad in 2nd half 62.5% 63.2% 1.58
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 66.0% 65.3% 1.53
Neither half drawn 34.0% 34.7% 2.88
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta (DNB) 62.9% 61.7% 60.3% 1.02× 1.62
UTA Arad (DNB) 37.1% 38.3% 39.7% 0.96× 2.61
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta to score first 53.1% 52.2% 1.92
UTA Arad to score first 38.3% 37.3% 2.68
No goal scored 8.6% 6.3% 15.82
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 51.2% 51.8% 49.6% 1.04× 1.93
Both teams to score 48.8% 48.2% 50.4% 0.96× 2.08
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 43.0% 41.6% 43.0% 0.97× 2.40
Both score & over 2.5 36.2% 38.0% 36.5% 1.04× 2.63
Both score & under 2.5 12.6% 11.9% 14.1% 0.85× 8.41
Not both score & over 2.5 8.2% 8.5% 6.8% 1.24× 11.81
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 88.5% 85.9% 88.6% 0.97× 1.16
Both teams to score 2+ 11.5% 14.1% 11.4% 1.23× 7.11
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 74.4% 71.5% 1.40
Both teams to score in 2nd half 25.6% 28.5% 3.51
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 62.9% 61.3% 1.63
Both score 2nd half only 21.7% 23.3% 4.29
Both score 1st half only 11.5% 11.9% 8.41
Both score in both halves 4.0% 4.6% 21.69
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.5% 82.7% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 15.5% 17.3% 5.79
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 51.2% 52.5% 1.90
A goal in each half 48.8% 47.5% 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.0% 46.6% 48.3% 0.96× 2.15
0-1 goals 29.7% 27.3% 28.5% 0.96× 3.66
4-6 goals 22.0% 23.3% 22.6% 1.03× 4.29
7+ goals 1.3% 2.0% 1.0% 2.09× 50.28
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 39.2% 0.92× 2.78
UTA Arad to score exactly 0 35.8% 36.0% 31.9% 1.13× 2.78
UTA Arad to score exactly 2 18.9% 18.4% 20.9% 0.88× 5.43
UTA Arad to score 3+ 8.6% 8.7% 8.4% 1.04× 11.52
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta to score exactly 1 34.3% 32.1% 34.4% 0.93× 3.11
FC Farul Constanta to score exactly 0 24.0% 22.9% 25.9% 0.89× 4.37
FC Farul Constanta to score exactly 2 24.4% 22.9% 23.6% 0.97× 4.37
FC Farul Constanta to score 3+ 17.3% 18.3% 16.5% 1.11× 5.45
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 45.5% 45.9% 2.18
FC Farul Constanta leading at HT 34.0% 32.3% 3.10
UTA Arad leading at HT 20.5% 23.5% 4.26
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta -1: 2 53.8% 52.1% 1.92
FC Farul Constanta -1: X 23.8% 23.2% 4.30
FC Farul Constanta -1: 1 22.5% 23.2% 4.30
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad (0:1) 53.8% 52.0% 56.7% 0.92× 1.92
Draw (0:1) 23.8% 23.5% 24.3% 0.97× 4.25
FC Farul Constanta (0:1) 22.5% 23.5% 19.2% 1.23× 4.25
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad (0:2) 77.5% 79.3% 80.8% 0.98× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.9% 11.4% 12.0% 0.95× 8.78
FC Farul Constanta (0:2) 8.6% 7.7% 7.4% 1.04× 12.95
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad (0:3) 91.4% 92.6% 92.6% 1.00× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.9% 6.4% 4.4% 1.47× 15.58
FC Farul Constanta (0:3) 2.7% 2.6% 3.2% 0.79× 38.97
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad (0:4) 97.3% 97.7% 96.8% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.0% 1.4% 2.7% 0.53× 70.55
FC Farul Constanta (0:4) 0.7% 1.4% 0.8% 1.86× 70.60
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta (1:0) 72.8% 71.7% 71.5% 1.00× 1.39
Draw (1:0) 17.1% 17.5% 16.5% 1.06× 5.70
UTA Arad (1:0) 10.1% 12.5% 12.2% 1.02× 8.02
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta (2:0) 89.9% 88.1% 87.8% 1.00× 1.14
Draw (2:0) 7.2% 6.7% 9.5% 0.70× 14.98
UTA Arad (2:0) 2.9% 2.8% 2.9% 0.96× 36.35
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.4% 48.6% 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.1% 26.2% 3.82
Halves equal 26.6% 26.2% 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta to concede 64.2% 65.5% 68.1% 0.96× 1.53
FC Farul Constanta clean sheet 35.8% 34.5% 31.9% 1.08× 2.90
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta clean sheet in 1st half 66.3% 66.5% 1.50
FC Farul Constanta to concede in 1st half 33.7% 33.5% 2.99
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta over 2.5 corners 89.4% 86.3% 1.16
FC Farul Constanta over 3.5 corners 79.8% 76.6% 1.31
FC Farul Constanta over 4.5 corners 68.1% 66.7% 1.50
FC Farul Constanta under 6.5 corners 56.5% 57.5% 1.74
FC Farul Constanta over 5.5 corners 55.6% 57.5% 1.74
FC Farul Constanta under 5.5 corners 44.4% 42.5% 2.35
FC Farul Constanta over 6.5 corners 43.5% 42.5% 2.35
FC Farul Constanta under 4.5 corners 31.9% 33.3% 3.00
FC Farul Constanta under 3.5 corners 20.2% 23.4% 4.27
FC Farul Constanta under 2.5 corners 10.6% 13.7% 7.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta under 3.5 goals 94.3% 92.3% 94.9% 0.97× 1.08
FC Farul Constanta under 2.5 goals 82.7% 82.2% 83.5% 0.98× 1.22
FC Farul Constanta over 0.5 goals 76.0% 77.9% 74.1% 1.05× 1.28
FC Farul Constanta under 1.5 goals 58.3% 57.6% 60.1% 0.96× 1.74
FC Farul Constanta over 1.5 goals 41.7% 42.4% 39.9% 1.06× 2.36
FC Farul Constanta under 0.5 goals 24.0% 22.1% 25.9% 0.85× 4.53
FC Farul Constanta over 2.5 goals 17.3% 17.8% 16.5% 1.08× 5.61
FC Farul Constanta over 3.5 goals 5.7% 7.7% 5.1% 1.49× 13.05
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta under 1.5 in 1st half 87.4% 87.3% 1.15
FC Farul Constanta under 0.5 in 1st half 54.1% 53.3% 1.88
FC Farul Constanta over 0.5 in 1st half 45.9% 46.7% 2.14
FC Farul Constanta over 1.5 in 1st half 12.6% 12.7% 7.86
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad (home no bet) 50.6% 52.1% 50.2% 1.04× 1.92
Draw (home no bet) 49.4% 47.9% 49.8% 0.96× 2.09
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta even goals 52.9% 50.9% 53.2% 0.96× 1.96
FC Farul Constanta odd goals 47.1% 49.1% 46.8% 1.05× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 35.9% 35.4% 2.83
HT 1-0 22.0% 22.2% 4.51
HT 0-1 14.8% 11.0% 9.12
HT 1-1 9.1% 8.0% 12.45
HT 2-0 6.8% 8.0% 12.47
HT 0-2 3.0% 2.5% 40.41
Any other HT score 3.3% 2.5% 40.40
HT 2-1 2.8% 2.5% 40.42
HT 1-2 1.9% 2.5% 40.47
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.5% 40.52
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta at HT / FC Farul Constanta at FT 27.2% 26.2% 3.82
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 17.0% 17.2% 5.82
Draw at HT / FC Farul Constanta at FT 16.9% 17.2% 5.82
UTA Arad at HT / UTA Arad at FT 13.9% 12.2% 8.20
Draw at HT / UTA Arad at FT 11.6% 12.2% 8.21
FC Farul Constanta at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.4% 15.60
UTA Arad at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.7% 27.27
UTA Arad at HT / FC Farul Constanta at FT 2.2% 3.7% 27.33
FC Farul Constanta at HT / UTA Arad at FT 1.7% 3.7% 27.35
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta to score last 53.1% 54.9% 1.82
UTA Arad to score last 38.3% 38.0% 2.63
No goal scored 8.6% 6.3% 15.82
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 91.4% 93.6% 1.07
FC Farul Constanta to lead by 1 at any time 60.2% 63.9% 1.57
UTA Arad to lead by 1 at any time 43.4% 41.3% 2.42
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 42.4% 41.3% 2.42
FC Farul Constanta to lead by 2 at any time 28.0% 25.8% 3.88
UTA Arad to lead by 2 at any time 14.5% 11.0% 9.08
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 14.2% 11.0% 9.08
FC Farul Constanta to lead by 3 at any time 10.3% 11.0% 9.13
UTA Arad to lead by 3 at any time 3.9% 2.5% 40.20
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta most corners 61.8% 60.5% 1.65
UTA Arad most corners 29.1% 31.0% 3.23
Corners level 9.1% 8.5% 11.79
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.5% 87.2% 88.4% 0.99× 1.15
1-4 goals 81.2% 82.0% 81.7% 1.00× 1.22
2-6 goals 69.0% 68.2% 70.7% 0.96× 1.47
1-3 goals 68.2% 68.2% 68.6% 0.99× 1.47
2-5 goals 66.4% 68.2% 68.1% 1.00× 1.47
2-4 goals 60.0% 62.7% 61.4% 1.02× 1.60
1-2 goals 47.0% 47.4% 48.9% 0.97× 2.11
2-3 goals 47.0% 47.4% 48.3% 0.98× 2.11
3-6 goals 43.2% 43.7% 42.4% 1.03× 2.29
3-5 goals 40.6% 43.7% 39.7% 1.10× 2.29
3-4 goals 34.2% 34.6% 33.1% 1.05× 2.89
4-6 goals 22.0% 23.8% 22.6% 1.05× 4.20
4-5 goals 19.4% 18.8% 20.0% 0.94× 5.31
5-6 goals 9.0% 8.9% 9.5% 0.94× 11.18
7+ goals 1.3% 2.2% 1.0% 2.36× 44.61
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Farul Constanta never behind 48.1% 55.5% 1.80
UTA Arad never behind 31.2% 38.0% 2.63
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 50.3% 50.0% 52.5% 0.95× 2.00
Odd number of goals 49.7% 50.0% 47.5% 1.05× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.4% 55.1% 1.82
Odd goals in 1st half 43.6% 44.9% 2.23
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.8% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.2% 48.4% 2.06
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.1% 96.0% 96.4% 1.00× 1.04
Over 0.5 goals 91.4% 92.3% 91.8% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 89.7% 87.7% 89.7% 0.98× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 76.7% 77.0% 76.6% 1.01× 1.30
Over 1.5 goals 70.3% 72.2% 71.5% 1.01× 1.39
Under 2.5 goals 55.5% 57.5% 56.8% 1.01× 1.74
Over 2.5 goals 44.5% 42.5% 43.2% 0.98× 2.35
Under 1.5 goals 29.7% 27.8% 28.5% 0.97× 3.60
Over 3.5 goals 23.3% 23.0% 23.4% 0.98× 4.35
Over 4.5 goals 10.3% 12.3% 10.3% 1.20× 8.14
Under 0.5 goals 8.6% 7.7% 8.2% 0.95× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 3.9% 4.0% 3.6% 1.10× 25.25
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.7% 97.3% 99.0% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.8% 97.3% 96.1% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 88.2% 86.7% 88.2% 0.98× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 70.4% 71.7% 70.9% 1.01× 1.40
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 60.0% 58.0% 60.2% 0.96× 1.73
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 40.0% 42.0% 39.8% 1.06× 2.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 29.6% 28.3% 29.1% 0.97× 3.53
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 11.8% 13.3% 11.8% 1.13× 7.49
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.2% 2.7% 3.9% 0.70× 36.67
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.3% 2.7% 1.0% 2.79× 36.70
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 91.5% 91.6% 1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half 72.7% 73.4% 1.36
Over 0.5 in 1st half 64.1% 64.3% 1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half 35.9% 35.7% 2.80
Over 1.5 in 1st half 27.3% 26.6% 3.76
Over 2.5 in 1st half 8.5% 8.4% 11.96
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 82.6% 82.6% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 76.1% 79.8% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 58.1% 56.5% 1.77
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 41.9% 43.5% 2.30
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 23.9% 20.2% 4.95
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 17.4% 17.4% 5.76
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad not to score in both halves 84.5% 81.3% 1.23
FC Farul Constanta not to score in both halves 74.5% 72.9% 1.37
FC Farul Constanta to score in both halves 25.5% 27.1% 3.69
UTA Arad to score in both halves 15.5% 18.7% 5.35
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 48.8% 50.6% 50.4% 1.01× 1.98
Only FC Farul Constanta scores 27.2% 25.5% 24.0% 1.06× 3.93
Only UTA Arad scores 15.5% 17.1% 17.9% 0.96× 5.84
Neither team scores 8.6% 7.2% 8.2% 0.88× 13.96
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.8% 25.0% 28.5% 0.88× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 21.1% 22.3% 20.5% 1.09× 4.49
Exactly 3 goals 21.2% 22.3% 20.0% 1.12× 4.49
Exactly 4 goals 13.0% 12.3% 13.3% 0.92× 8.13
Exactly 0 goals 8.6% 7.8% 8.2% 0.95× 12.88
Exactly 5 goals 6.4% 7.8% 6.8% 1.13× 12.89
6 or more goals 3.9% 4.1% 3.6% 1.12× 24.66
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 41.9% 43.5% 2.30
1 goal in 2nd half 34.2% 34.4% 2.91
No goals in 2nd half 23.9% 20.2% 4.95
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad not to win both halves 94.8% 92.3% 1.08
FC Farul Constanta not to win both halves 87.4% 87.9% 1.14
FC Farul Constanta to win both halves 12.6% 12.1% 8.29
UTA Arad to win both halves 5.2% 7.7% 12.99
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad to win neither half 59.3% 57.3% 1.75
FC Farul Constanta to win either half 58.5% 57.2% 1.75
FC Farul Constanta to win neither half 41.5% 42.8% 2.34
UTA Arad to win either half 40.7% 42.7% 2.34
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTA Arad not to win to nil 84.5% 82.7% 82.1% 1.01× 1.21
FC Farul Constanta not to win to nil 72.8% 74.8% 76.0% 0.98× 1.34
FC Farul Constanta to win to nil 27.2% 25.2% 24.0% 1.05× 3.97
UTA Arad to win to nil 15.5% 17.3% 17.9% 0.97× 5.77
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.6% 27.4% 28.3% 0.97× 3.65
FC Farul Constanta by 1 23.8% 23.3% 24.3% 0.96× 4.29
UTA Arad by 1 17.1% 17.3% 16.5% 1.05× 5.78
FC Farul Constanta by 2 13.9% 11.8% 12.0% 0.99× 8.46
FC Farul Constanta by 3+ 8.6% 7.3% 7.4% 0.99× 13.66
UTA Arad by 2 7.2% 7.3% 9.5% 0.77× 13.66
UTA Arad by 3+ 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 1.04× 33.82
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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