FC Gagra v Meshakhte Tkibuli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · GEO-Erovnuli Liga · 2627

GEO-Erovnuli Liga results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

FC Gagra

14:00 UTC

Meshakhte Tkibuli

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 242h before kick-off

FC Gagra win

48.6%

model 48.8%

Draw

27.5%

model 28.3%

Meshakhte Tkibuli win

23.9%

model 23.0%

492724

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,536 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.4%
1-0 12.0%
0-0 9.8%
2-0 9.7%
2-1 9.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	44.0%	Under 2.5	56.0%
BTTS yes	48.5%	BTTS no	51.5%
FC Gagra 1+	77.5%	FC Gagra 2+	43.9%
Meshakhte Tkibuli 1+	61.2%	Meshakhte Tkibuli 2+	24.5%

Expected goals 1.49 – 0.95. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

27/100

Data quality

30/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Draw (home no bet)

Home no bet · usually 43%

56.0% fair odds 1.79

strong signal · 4791 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

FC Gagra or draw at HT

Double chance 1HT

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 975 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

At home FC Gagra average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
FC Gagra have only 1 matches on record.
Meshakhte Tkibuli have only 1 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Gagra have an estimated 48.6% win probability, against 27.5% for the draw and 23.9% for Meshakhte Tkibuli. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.49 for FC Gagra and 0.95 for Meshakhte Tkibuli.

Why FC Gagra

At home FC Gagra average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.5%.

Why Meshakhte Tkibuli can win

Away from home Meshakhte Tkibuli average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Gagra, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Meshakhte Tkibuli, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Gagra: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Meshakhte Tkibuli: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

FC Gagra are the model's most likely outcome at 48.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.4%. Confidence 27/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	492823	1.49–0.95	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	492921	1.42–0.85	1-0 14%	40%	44%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra to win	48.8%	48.0%	40.3%	1.19×	2.08
Draw	28.3%	27.1%	25.7%	1.06×	3.69
Meshakhte Tkibuli to win	23.0%	23.6%	34.3%	0.69×	4.23

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra & not both score	29.0%	26.5%	21.3%	1.24×	3.78
FC Gagra & both teams score	19.8%	18.1%	19.3%	0.94×	5.52
Draw & both teams score	18.5%	18.1%	18.0%	1.01×	5.52
Meshakhte Tkibuli & not both score	12.8%	12.7%	17.0%	0.75×	7.88
Meshakhte Tkibuli & both teams score	10.2%	12.7%	17.7%	0.72×	7.88
Draw & not both score	9.8%	7.7%	8.0%	0.96×	13.07

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra & over 1.5	36.8%	36.6%	31.3%	1.17×	2.74
FC Gagra & under 3.5	35.7%	36.6%	30.3%	1.20×	2.74
FC Gagra & over 2.5	27.1%	26.4%	25.0%	1.06×	3.79
Draw & under 2.5	23.2%	21.8%	19.3%	1.13×	4.58
Draw & under 3.5	23.2%	21.8%	19.3%	1.13×	4.58
FC Gagra & under 2.5	21.7%	21.8%	15.7%	1.39×	4.58
Draw & over 1.5	18.5%	17.7%	18.0%	0.98×	5.64
Meshakhte Tkibuli & under 3.5	18.2%	17.7%	24.3%	0.73×	5.64
Meshakhte Tkibuli & over 1.5	15.8%	17.7%	25.0%	0.71×	5.64
FC Gagra & under 1.5	12.0%	12.4%	9.3%	1.33×	8.06
FC Gagra & over 3.5	13.1%	12.4%	10.3%	1.20×	8.06
Meshakhte Tkibuli & over 2.5	11.8%	12.4%	20.7%	0.60×	8.06
Meshakhte Tkibuli & under 2.5	11.2%	12.4%	14.0%	0.89×	8.06
Draw & under 1.5	9.8%	7.6%	8.0%	0.95×	13.20
Meshakhte Tkibuli & under 1.5	7.2%	7.6%	9.7%	0.78×	13.21
Draw & over 2.5	5.1%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.21
Draw & over 3.5	5.1%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.21
Meshakhte Tkibuli & over 3.5	4.7%	4.4%	10.3%	0.42×	22.79

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra (1UP)	62.4%	65.2%	—	—	1.54
Meshakhte Tkibuli (1UP)	39.5%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra (2UP)	48.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Meshakhte Tkibuli (2UP)	23.0%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra to win 2nd half	39.3%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
2nd half drawn	38.1%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Meshakhte Tkibuli to win 2nd half	22.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.8%	86.0%	—	—	1.16
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 0.5 in 2nd half	56.6%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 0.5 in 2nd half	43.4%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.2%	14.0%	—	—	7.13

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.1%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
FC Gagra over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.2%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
FC Gagra under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.8%	41.5%	—	—	2.41
FC Gagra over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.9%	21.7%	—	—	4.61

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli (+2.5)	90.0%	87.4%	91.0%	0.96×	1.14
FC Gagra (+0.5)	77.0%	78.0%	65.7%	1.19×	1.28
Meshakhte Tkibuli (+1.5)	74.8%	73.3%	81.7%	0.90×	1.36
Meshakhte Tkibuli (+0.5)	51.3%	51.8%	59.7%	0.87×	1.93
FC Gagra (-0.5)	48.8%	48.2%	40.3%	1.20×	2.07
FC Gagra (-1.5)	25.2%	26.7%	18.3%	1.46×	3.75
Meshakhte Tkibuli (-0.5)	23.0%	22.0%	34.3%	0.64×	4.55
FC Gagra (-2.5)	10.0%	12.6%	9.0%	1.40×	7.95

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli to concede	77.5%	78.9%	75.3%	1.05×	1.27
Meshakhte Tkibuli clean sheet	22.5%	21.1%	24.7%	0.86×	4.74

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli clean sheet in 1st half	52.7%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
Meshakhte Tkibuli to concede in 1st half	47.3%	46.2%	—	—	2.17

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli to concede in 2nd half	57.2%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
Meshakhte Tkibuli clean sheet in 2nd half	42.8%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 3.5 goals	98.4%	97.3%	94.7%	1.03×	1.03
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 2.5 goals	92.9%	92.2%	86.3%	1.07×	1.09
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 1.5 goals	75.5%	76.4%	66.0%	1.16×	1.31
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 0.5 goals	61.3%	63.6%	71.0%	0.90×	1.57
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 0.5 goals	38.7%	36.4%	29.0%	1.26×	2.75
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 1.5 goals	24.5%	23.6%	34.0%	0.69×	4.23
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 2.5 goals	7.1%	7.8%	13.7%	0.57×	12.75
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 3.5 goals	1.6%	2.7%	5.3%	0.50×	37.14

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 1.5 in 1st half	94.4%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 0.5 in 1st half	68.4%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 0.5 in 1st half	31.6%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 1.5 in 1st half	5.6%	6.1%	—	—	16.32

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli scores equally in both	47.6%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Meshakhte Tkibuli scores more in 2nd half	32.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Meshakhte Tkibuli scores more in 1st half	19.7%	17.3%	—	—	5.77

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra (away no bet)	63.3%	62.3%	61.1%	1.02×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	36.7%	37.7%	38.9%	0.97×	2.65

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli even goals	57.5%	56.4%	54.3%	1.04×	1.77
Meshakhte Tkibuli odd goals	42.5%	43.6%	45.7%	0.96×	2.29

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.7%	86.9%	—	—	1.15
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.3%	13.1%	—	—	7.63

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	57.9%	59.7%	—	—	1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals	42.1%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.7%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
FC Gagra to score 2+ in a row	37.1%	37.0%	—	—	2.70
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score 2+ in a row	17.9%	17.0%	—	—	5.88
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.2%	17.0%	—	—	5.88
FC Gagra to score 3+ in a row	13.4%	12.9%	—	—	7.76
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score 3+ in a row	4.0%	3.2%	—	—	31.74

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.4%	11.2%	11.7%	0.96×	8.91
1-0	12.0%	11.2%	9.3%	1.20×	8.91
0-0	9.8%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.45
0-1	7.2%	7.4%	9.7%	0.77×	13.45
1-2	5.8%	7.4%	9.0%	0.83×	13.45
2-0	9.7%	7.4%	6.7%	1.12×	13.45
2-1	9.2%	7.4%	11.3%	0.66×	13.45
0-2	3.9%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	58.34
0-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.34
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.3%	1.29×	58.35
1-3	1.8%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.34
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.35
2-2	4.4%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.34
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.34
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.3%	1.29×	58.35
3-0	4.8%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.34
3-1	4.6%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.34
3-2	2.2%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.34
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.71×	58.35
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.57×	58.35
4-0	1.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.34
4-1	1.7%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.34
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.3%	5.14×	58.35
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.71×	58.35
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.14×	58.35
Any other score	2.1%	1.7%	3.3%	0.51×	58.34

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra (2nd half DNB)	63.5%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Meshakhte Tkibuli (2nd half DNB)	36.5%	36.5%	—	—	2.74

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra leading at HT (DNB)	66.1%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Meshakhte Tkibuli leading at HT (DNB)	33.9%	28.7%	—	—	3.48

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra or draw (1X)	77.0%	76.4%	65.7%	1.16×	1.31
FC Gagra or Meshakhte Tkibuli (12)	71.7%	72.9%	74.3%	0.98×	1.37
Meshakhte Tkibuli or draw (X2)	51.3%	52.0%	59.7%	0.87×	1.92

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra or draw at HT	81.6%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Meshakhte Tkibuli or draw at HT	64.2%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
FC Gagra or Meshakhte Tkibuli at HT	54.3%	54.0%	—	—	1.85

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra or draw (1UP)	77.0%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Meshakhte Tkibuli or draw (1UP)	51.3%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra or draw in 2nd half	77.4%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
FC Gagra or Meshakhte Tkibuli in 2nd half	61.9%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Meshakhte Tkibuli or draw in 2nd half	60.7%	63.5%	—	—	1.58

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.3%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Neither half drawn	34.7%	34.9%	—	—	2.86

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra (DNB)	68.0%	67.2%	54.0%	1.24×	1.49
Meshakhte Tkibuli (DNB)	32.0%	32.8%	46.0%	0.71×	3.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra to score first	55.1%	60.8%	—	—	1.64
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score first	35.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goal scored	9.8%	6.4%	—	—	15.54

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	51.5%	51.6%	45.7%	1.13×	1.94
Both teams to score	48.5%	48.4%	54.3%	0.89×	2.07

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.6%	41.6%	37.0%	1.12×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	35.1%	38.0%	43.0%	0.88×	2.63
Both score & under 2.5	13.4%	11.9%	11.7%	1.02×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.4%	9.0%	0.94×	11.85

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.2%	85.7%	87.0%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.8%	14.3%	13.0%	1.10×	7.01

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.8%	70.9%	—	—	1.41
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.2%	29.1%	—	—	3.44

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.4%	60.7%	—	—	1.65
Both score 2nd half only	21.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Both score 1st half only	11.4%	11.9%	—	—	8.43
Both score in both halves	3.7%	4.9%	—	—	20.60

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.9%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	15.1%	17.3%	—	—	5.78

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	51.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
A goal in each half	49.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.1%	46.5%	47.3%	0.98×	2.15
0-1 goals	29.0%	27.0%	26.3%	1.03×	3.70
4-6 goals	21.7%	23.5%	23.7%	0.99×	4.26
7+ goals	1.3%	2.0%	3.3%	0.60×	49.78

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score exactly 0	38.7%	36.0%	29.0%	1.24×	2.78
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	37.3%	0.96×	2.78
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score exactly 2	17.4%	18.2%	20.7%	0.88×	5.49
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score 3+	7.1%	8.6%	13.7%	0.63×	11.64

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra to score exactly 1	33.6%	32.2%	34.3%	0.94×	3.10
FC Gagra to score exactly 2	25.0%	26.4%	26.7%	0.99×	3.78
FC Gagra to score exactly 0	22.5%	22.9%	24.7%	0.93×	4.38
FC Gagra to score 3+	18.9%	18.1%	15.0%	1.21×	5.51

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.7%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
FC Gagra leading at HT	35.8%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
Meshakhte Tkibuli leading at HT	18.4%	16.2%	—	—	6.18

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra -1: 2	51.3%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
FC Gagra -1: 1	25.2%	26.8%	—	—	3.74
FC Gagra -1: X	23.6%	23.3%	—	—	4.29

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli (0:1)	51.3%	51.7%	59.7%	0.87×	1.93
FC Gagra (0:1)	25.2%	27.2%	18.3%	1.48×	3.68
Draw (0:1)	23.6%	23.6%	22.3%	1.06×	4.24

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli (0:2)	74.8%	75.0%	81.7%	0.92×	1.33
Draw (0:2)	15.1%	15.7%	9.7%	1.62×	6.39
FC Gagra (0:2)	10.0%	11.4%	9.0%	1.26×	8.81

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli (0:3)	90.0%	88.6%	91.0%	0.97×	1.13
Draw (0:3)	6.8%	6.5%	5.7%	1.15×	15.40
FC Gagra (0:3)	3.2%	2.6%	3.7%	0.70×	39.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli (0:4)	96.8%	97.7%	96.3%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.4%	1.4%	2.3%	0.61×	70.69
FC Gagra (0:4)	0.9%	1.4%	1.7%	0.85×	70.74

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra (1:0)	77.0%	76.9%	65.7%	1.17×	1.30
Draw (1:0)	14.6%	12.6%	21.0%	0.60×	7.97
Meshakhte Tkibuli (1:0)	8.3%	7.5%	13.7%	0.55×	13.39

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra (2:0)	91.7%	92.9%	86.3%	1.08×	1.08
Draw (2:0)	6.1%	6.6%	8.3%	0.79×	15.12
Meshakhte Tkibuli (2:0)	2.2%	2.8%	5.7%	0.49×	35.92

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.3%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
Halves equal	28.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
1st half highest scoring	26.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra to concede	61.3%	65.0%	71.0%	0.92×	1.54
FC Gagra clean sheet	38.7%	35.0%	29.0%	1.21×	2.86

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra clean sheet in 1st half	68.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
FC Gagra to concede in 1st half	31.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.08

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra clean sheet in 2nd half	56.6%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
FC Gagra to concede in 2nd half	43.4%	45.4%	—	—	2.20

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra under 3.5 goals	93.6%	92.4%	93.7%	0.99×	1.08
FC Gagra under 2.5 goals	81.1%	82.3%	85.0%	0.97×	1.22
FC Gagra over 0.5 goals	77.5%	78.2%	75.3%	1.04×	1.28
FC Gagra under 1.5 goals	56.1%	57.9%	58.7%	0.99×	1.73
FC Gagra over 1.5 goals	43.9%	42.1%	41.3%	1.02×	2.38
FC Gagra under 0.5 goals	22.5%	21.8%	24.7%	0.88×	4.58
FC Gagra over 2.5 goals	18.9%	17.7%	15.0%	1.18×	5.65
FC Gagra over 3.5 goals	6.4%	7.6%	6.3%	1.21×	13.07

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra under 1.5 in 1st half	86.5%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
FC Gagra under 0.5 in 1st half	52.7%	53.9%	—	—	1.86
FC Gagra over 0.5 in 1st half	47.3%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
FC Gagra over 1.5 in 1st half	13.5%	12.4%	—	—	8.10

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra scores more in 2nd half	37.8%	37.1%	—	—	2.69
FC Gagra scores equally in both	36.6%	37.1%	—	—	2.69
FC Gagra scores more in 1st half	25.6%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.2%	56.0%	42.8%	1.31×	1.79
Meshakhte Tkibuli (home no bet)	44.8%	44.0%	57.2%	0.77×	2.27

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra even goals	52.5%	50.9%	55.7%	0.91×	1.96
FC Gagra odd goals	47.5%	49.1%	44.3%	1.11×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	36.2%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
HT 1-0	22.9%	22.5%	—	—	4.44
HT 0-1	13.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
HT 1-1	8.9%	8.0%	—	—	12.53
HT 2-0	7.4%	8.0%	—	—	12.54
Any other HT score	3.4%	2.5%	—	—	40.43
HT 2-1	2.8%	2.5%	—	—	40.45
HT 0-2	2.6%	2.5%	—	—	40.46
HT 1-2	1.7%	2.5%	—	—	40.51
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.5%	—	—	40.56

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra at HT / FC Gagra at FT	29.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.6%	17.3%	—	—	5.77
Draw at HT / FC Gagra at FT	17.4%	17.3%	—	—	5.78
Meshakhte Tkibuli at HT / Meshakhte Tkibuli at FT	11.7%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Draw at HT / Meshakhte Tkibuli at FT	9.8%	6.5%	—	—	15.42
FC Gagra at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.4%	—	—	15.51
Meshakhte Tkibuli at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.6%	—	—	27.51
Meshakhte Tkibuli at HT / FC Gagra at FT	2.2%	3.6%	—	—	27.57
FC Gagra at HT / Meshakhte Tkibuli at FT	1.5%	3.6%	—	—	27.59

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra to score last	55.3%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score last	35.0%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
No goal scored	9.8%	6.4%	—	—	15.54

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.2%	93.5%	—	—	1.07
FC Gagra to lead by 1 at any time	62.4%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.9%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Meshakhte Tkibuli to lead by 1 at any time	39.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
FC Gagra to lead by 2 at any time	30.6%	31.6%	—	—	3.16
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.9%	11.1%	—	—	9.04
Meshakhte Tkibuli to lead by 2 at any time	12.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.07
FC Gagra to lead by 3 at any time	11.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.07
Meshakhte Tkibuli to lead by 3 at any time	3.1%	2.6%	—	—	38.15

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.4%	87.1%	86.7%	1.00×	1.15
1-4 goals	80.2%	82.1%	79.0%	1.04×	1.22
2-6 goals	69.8%	68.2%	70.7%	0.97×	1.47
1-3 goals	67.3%	68.2%	65.7%	1.04×	1.47
2-5 goals	67.2%	68.2%	68.3%	1.00×	1.47
2-4 goals	61.0%	62.7%	60.7%	1.03×	1.60
2-3 goals	48.1%	47.4%	47.3%	1.00×	2.11
1-2 goals	46.2%	47.4%	40.7%	1.16×	2.11
3-6 goals	42.8%	43.6%	48.7%	0.89×	2.30
3-5 goals	40.2%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.30
3-4 goals	34.0%	34.7%	38.7%	0.90×	2.88
4-6 goals	21.7%	23.7%	23.7%	1.00×	4.22
4-5 goals	19.1%	18.9%	21.3%	0.88×	5.30
5-6 goals	8.8%	8.9%	10.3%	0.86×	11.21
7+ goals	1.3%	2.3%	3.3%	0.68×	44.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Gagra never behind	50.7%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Meshakhte Tkibuli never behind	27.8%	31.4%	—	—	3.18

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	52.5%	50.1%	46.3%	1.08×	2.00
Odd number of goals	47.5%	49.9%	53.7%	0.93×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.9%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Odd goals in 1st half	43.1%	44.9%	—	—	2.23

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.6%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.4%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.2%	96.0%	94.3%	1.02×	1.04
Over 0.5 goals	90.2%	92.3%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.9%	87.8%	86.7%	1.01×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	77.1%	77.0%	73.3%	1.05×	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	71.0%	72.4%	73.7%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	56.0%	57.7%	48.3%	1.19×	1.73
Over 2.5 goals	44.0%	42.3%	51.7%	0.82×	2.37
Under 1.5 goals	29.0%	27.6%	26.3%	1.05×	3.62
Over 3.5 goals	22.9%	23.0%	26.7%	0.86×	4.34
Over 4.5 goals	10.1%	12.2%	13.3%	0.91×	8.21
Under 0.5 goals	9.8%	7.7%	8.0%	0.97×	12.91
Over 5.5 goals	3.8%	4.0%	5.7%	0.70×	25.19

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.7%	97.3%	96.6%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.9%	97.3%	93.9%	1.04×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.4%	86.6%	84.6%	1.02×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.9%	72.1%	64.4%	1.12×	1.39
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	60.3%	62.3%	66.2%	0.94×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	39.7%	37.7%	33.8%	1.12×	2.65
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.1%	27.9%	35.6%	0.78×	3.58
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.6%	13.4%	15.4%	0.87×	7.48
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.1%	2.7%	6.1%	0.44×	36.68
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.3%	2.7%	3.4%	0.80×	36.72

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.6%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.7%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Over 0.5 in 1st half	63.8%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Under 0.5 in 1st half	36.2%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.4%	8.2%	—	—	12.26

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.9%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.4%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.2%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	41.8%	43.0%	—	—	2.33
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.6%	20.0%	—	—	4.99
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli not to score in both halves	86.3%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
FC Gagra not to score in both halves	72.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
FC Gagra to score in both halves	27.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score in both halves	13.7%	14.5%	—	—	6.92

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	48.5%	50.7%	54.3%	0.93×	1.97
Only FC Gagra scores	29.0%	25.4%	21.3%	1.19×	3.93
Only Meshakhte Tkibuli scores	12.8%	11.2%	17.0%	0.66×	8.94
Neither team scores	9.8%	7.1%	8.0%	0.89×	14.08

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.0%	25.0%	22.3%	1.12×	4.00
Exactly 3 goals	21.1%	22.3%	25.3%	0.88×	4.49
Exactly 1 goals	19.2%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.68
Exactly 4 goals	12.9%	12.3%	13.7%	0.90×	8.14
Exactly 0 goals	9.8%	7.8%	8.0%	0.97×	12.88
Exactly 5 goals	6.3%	7.8%	8.0%	0.97×	12.89
6 or more goals	3.8%	4.0%	5.7%	0.71×	24.73

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.4%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
No goals in 1st half	36.2%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
2 goals in 1st half	18.9%	18.8%	—	—	5.31
3+ goals in 1st half	8.4%	8.2%	—	—	12.26

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	41.8%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
1 goal in 2nd half	33.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
No goals in 2nd half	24.6%	20.6%	—	—	4.85

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli not to win both halves	95.7%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
FC Gagra not to win both halves	85.7%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
FC Gagra to win both halves	14.3%	12.3%	—	—	8.15
Meshakhte Tkibuli to win both halves	4.3%	2.7%	—	—	36.64

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli to win neither half	63.3%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
FC Gagra to win either half	60.9%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
FC Gagra to win neither half	39.1%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Meshakhte Tkibuli to win either half	36.7%	37.8%	—	—	2.64

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli not to win to nil	87.2%	87.9%	83.0%	1.06×	1.14
FC Gagra not to win to nil	71.0%	74.8%	78.7%	0.95×	1.34
FC Gagra to win to nil	29.0%	25.2%	21.3%	1.18×	3.97
Meshakhte Tkibuli to win to nil	12.8%	12.1%	17.0%	0.71×	8.24

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.3%	27.3%	25.7%	1.06×	3.66
FC Gagra by 1	23.6%	23.4%	22.3%	1.05×	4.27
FC Gagra by 2	15.1%	17.2%	9.7%	1.78×	5.80
Meshakhte Tkibuli by 1	14.6%	11.8%	21.0%	0.56×	8.44
FC Gagra by 3+	10.0%	11.8%	9.0%	1.32×	8.45
Meshakhte Tkibuli by 2	6.1%	7.3%	8.3%	0.87×	13.77
Meshakhte Tkibuli by 3+	2.2%	3.0%	5.7%	0.53×	33.47