FC Heidenheim v Bayer Leverkusen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 14
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 10
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
1.18 – 0.60
Goals − xG
+1.26 – +1.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Heidenheim win
13.9%
Draw
22.5%
Bayer Leverkusen win
63.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.83–2.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.22–2.16 | 1-2 10% | 66% | 62% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Heidenheim 1.74 xGBayer Leverkusen 1.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Heidenheim attacking right
Bayer Leverkusen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Luca Kerber | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Niklas Dorsch |
| 7' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Aleix García | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robert Andrich |
| 8' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Aleix García |
| 22' |
FC Heidenheim |
Hennes Behrens | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Conteh |
| 25' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Exequiel Palacios | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robert Andrich |
| 34' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.60 | Open Play | — | Goal | Álex Grimaldo |
| 41' |
FC Heidenheim |
Luca Kerber | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christian Conteh |
| 48' |
FC Heidenheim |
Julian Niehues | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 55' |
FC Heidenheim |
Hennes Behrens | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marnon Busch |
| 58' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Nathan Tella | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Malik Tillman |
| 67' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sirlord Conteh |
| 69' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 74' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Hennes Behrens |
| 76' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Aleix García | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Nathan Tella | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrik Schick |
| 78' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.37 | From Corner | — | Goal | Álex Grimaldo |
| 84' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.40 | From Corner | — | Goal | Adrian Beck |
| 90' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 91' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jarell Quansah | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Montrell Culbreath |
| 96' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tim Oermann |
| 96' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.25 | 0.04 | 0.92 |
| Ibrahim Maza AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Exequiel Palacios DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álex Grimaldo DL | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.09 | 0.96 |
| Montrell Culbreath DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Robert Andrich DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.96 |
| Malik Tillman AMC | 83 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.10 | 1.11 |
| Aleix García DMC | 83 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.34 | 0.97 |
| Ernest Poku AML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nathan Tella Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Martin Terrier Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ezequiél Fernández Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tim Oermann Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Christian Kofane Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budu Zivzivadze FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Hennes Behrens DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marnon Busch DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Niklas Dorsch MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Luca Kerber MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Christian Conteh FWL | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Julian Niehues Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marvin Pieringer Sub | 25 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sirlord Conteh Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Adrian Beck Sub | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.00 |