FC Heidenheim v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 18
On target
1 – 11
Shots in box
3 – 14
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.46
Goals − xG
-0.53 – +0.46
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Heidenheim win
12.5%
Draw
18.9%
Bayern Munich win
68.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDWWDWW last 10
scored 34
from 32.5 xG
conceded 10
from 13.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.91–2.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Heidenheim 0.53 xGBayern Munich 3.54 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Heidenheim attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 13' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 18' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Serge Gnabry |
| 21' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 28' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 28' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 32' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Sirlord Conteh | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Frans Krätzig |
| 33' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marvin Pieringer |
| 35' |
Bayern Munich |
Kingsley Coman | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 35' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 41' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.19 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 45' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 55' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Raphael Guerreiro |
| 58' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 60' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 61' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 65' |
FC Heidenheim |
Sirlord Conteh | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marvin Pieringer |
| 78' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 80' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Bayern Munich |
Gabriel Vidovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leroy Sané |
Players
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Beck AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar Traoré DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marnon Busch DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Kevin Müller GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Frans Krätzig MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| Sirlord Conteh FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niklas Dorsch MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Niehues Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Léo Scienza Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Wanner Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Kerber Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.59 | 1.85 |
| Serge Gnabry AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.91 | 1.19 |
| Jonas Urbig GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.30 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Josip Stanisic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.31 |
| Raphael Guerreiro DL | 86 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.12 | 2.00 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 75 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.85 | 0.46 | 2.09 |
| Harry Kane FW | 64 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1.21 | 0.66 | 1.71 |
| Kingsley Coman AML | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 47 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Sacha Boey Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Leroy Sané Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Thomas Müller Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Gabriel Vidovic Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| João Palhinha Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |