FC Heidenheim v Bochum — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 2 May 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 13
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 10
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-0.46 – -1.82
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Heidenheim win
43.6%
Draw
27.0%
Bochum win
29.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Bochum are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLLLLLDDLW last 10
scored 10
from 12.5 xG
conceded 20
from 18.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.51–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Heidenheim 0.46 xGBochum 1.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Heidenheim attacking right
Bochum attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Léo Scienza | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Frans Krätzig |
| 21' |
FC Heidenheim |
Omar Traoré | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Wittek |
| 27' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Bochum |
Myron Boadu | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giorgos Masouras |
| 34' |
Bochum |
Myron Boadu | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Bochum |
Tom Krauß | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tim Oermann |
| 45' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Frans Krätzig |
| 48' |
Bochum |
Ivan Ordets | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matús Bero |
| 65' |
Bochum |
Myron Boadu | 0.59 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrian Beck |
| 71' |
FC Heidenheim |
Benedikt Gimber | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Frans Krätzig |
| 74' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Frans Krätzig |
| 75' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sirlord Conteh |
| 80' |
Bochum |
Tom Krauß | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Moritz Broschinski |
| 89' |
Bochum |
Bernardo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahima Sissoko |
| 89' |
Bochum |
Moritz Broschinski | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Bochum |
Myron Boadu | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gerrit Holtmann |
| 95' |
FC Heidenheim |
Julian Niehues | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Budu Zivzivadze |
| 99' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 100' |
FC Heidenheim |
Omar Traoré | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julian Niehues |
| 103' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Julian Niehues |
| 104' |
Bochum |
Jakov Medic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Myron Boadu |
Players
Bochum
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernardo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Tom Krauß DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Ivan Ordets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Matús Bero MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Timo Horn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tim Oermann DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.36 |
| Maximilian Wittek ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.35 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| Giorgos Masouras FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.35 | 1.04 |
| Felix Passlack MR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Myron Boadu Sub | 81 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.32 | 0.02 | 1.36 |
| Philipp Hofmann FW | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moritz Broschinski Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.51 |
| Gerrit Holtmann Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| Jakov Medic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dani de Wit Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Beck AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.23 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Omar Traoré DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Marnon Busch MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Tim Siersleben DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Frans Krätzig DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kevin Müller GK | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sirlord Conteh Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Léo Scienza AMC | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Frank Feller Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Mathias Honsak Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Budu Zivzivadze Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Julian Niehues Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.12 |