FC Heidenheim v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 16
On target
2 – 7
Shots in box
5 – 13
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.06
Goals − xG
+1.03 – +1.15
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Heidenheim win
14.1%
Draw
20.7%
Hoffenheim win
65.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.95–2.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.58–1.98 | 1-1 9% | 69% | 68% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Heidenheim 0.97 xGHoffenheim 2.85 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Heidenheim attacking right
Hoffenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 2' |
 Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 14' |
Hoffenheim |
Alexander Prass | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 15' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Albian Hajdari |
| 25' |
Hoffenheim |
Alexander Prass | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fisnik Asllani |
| 31' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Omar Traoré |
| 37' |
Hoffenheim |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 39' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Niklas Dorsch |
| 45' |
Hoffenheim |
Alexander Prass | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Andrej Kramaric |
| 47' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 48' |
Hoffenheim |
Leon Avdullahu | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 51' |
Hoffenheim |
Albian Hajdari | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 54' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 58' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Conteh |
| 60' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
FC Heidenheim |
Luca Kerber | 0.69 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hennes Behrens |
| 63' |
Hoffenheim |
Alexander Prass | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 77' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.91 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bazoumana Touré |
| 83' |
FC Heidenheim |
Luca Kerber | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Goal | Hennes Behrens |
| 89' |
Hoffenheim |
Alexander Prass | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Muhammed Damar |
| 91' |
Hoffenheim |
Valentin Gendrey | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Grischa Prömel |
| 96' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Sirlord Conteh |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Prass AMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Fisnik Asllani FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.04 | 1.74 |
| Leon Avdullahu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Bazoumana Touré AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 1.04 | 1.49 |
| Ozan Kabak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bernardo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.35 |
| Andrej Kramaric AMC | 82 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.54 | 0.96 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Wouter Burger DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| Grischa Prömel Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| Tim Lemperle Sub | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.91 | 0.00 | 1.28 |
| Robin Hranác Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentin Gendrey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Muhammed Damar Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.37 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Kerber MC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Budu Zivzivadze FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Hennes Behrens DL | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Omar Traoré DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Niklas Dorsch MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Mathias Honsak FWL | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Conteh Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Sirlord Conteh Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Marnon Busch Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Schimmer Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |