FC Heidenheim v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 10
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.30 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.54
Goals − xG
+0.89 – -0.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Heidenheim win
24.3%
Draw
26.3%
Union Berlin win
49.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.12–1.68 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–1.42 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Heidenheim 2.11 xGUnion Berlin 1.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Heidenheim attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 6' |
Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 8' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.65 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Marvin Pieringer |
| 17' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marnon Busch | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Julian Niehues |
| 35' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.64 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Patrick Mainka |
| 41' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marnon Busch |
| 49' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Derrick Köhn |
| 66' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Diogo Leite |
| 67' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Tom Rothe |
| 73' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Tom Rothe |
| 74' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.34 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Rani Khedira |
| 77' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 78' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jan Schöppner |
| 80' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Tim Skarke |
| 80' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ilyas Ansah |
| 81' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 97' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adrian Beck |
Players
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.09 |
| Janik Haberer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.35 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Alex Kral MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Andras Schafer MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Derrick Köhn DL | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.09 | 0.33 |
| Oliver Burke FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Tom Rothe Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Livan Burcu Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ilyas Ansah Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Linus Güther Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| Marnon Busch DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1.44 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.82 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Niehues MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| Hennes Behrens DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 80 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| Mathias Honsak ML | 79 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.29 | 0.00 | 1.29 |
| Stefan Schimmer FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Budu Zivzivadze Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| Niklas Dorsch Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Luca Kerber Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrian Beck Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.37 |