FC Porto v Benfica — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

FC Porto

19:30 UTC

Benfica

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 300h before kick-off

FC Porto win

30.5%

model 32.6%

Draw

23.3%

model 23.7%

Benfica win

46.2%

model 43.7%

312346

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.0%
1-2 9.0%
0-1 8.8%
2-1 7.6%
1-0 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.1%	Under 2.5	43.9%
BTTS yes	58.4%	BTTS no	41.6%
FC Porto 1+	73.8%	FC Porto 2+	38.7%
Benfica 1+	79.6%	Benfica 2+	47.2%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.59. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

76/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Benfica (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 43%

57.0% fair odds 1.76

strong signal · 3577 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both teams to score 2+

GG/NG 2+ · usually 86%

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 6854 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Benfica have an estimated 46.2% win probability, against 30.5% for FC Porto and 23.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.34 for FC Porto and 1.59 for Benfica.

Why FC Porto

Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Benfica can win

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Porto, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Benfica, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Porto: 51% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Benfica: 59% possession, 23.2 shots a match, 7.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Benfica are the model's most likely outcome at 46.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.0%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	332444	1.34–1.59	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	362638	1.29–1.33	1-1 12%	48%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to win	43.7%	41.7%	31.3%	1.33×	2.40
FC Porto to win	32.6%	31.4%	42.1%	0.75×	3.18
Draw	23.7%	23.5%	26.7%	0.88×	4.26

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica & both teams score	22.5%	21.5%	11.7%	1.83×	4.65
Benfica & not both score	21.2%	21.5%	19.8%	1.09×	4.65
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	18.2%	20.4%	0.89×	5.49
FC Porto & both teams score	17.2%	18.2%	16.2%	1.12×	5.49
FC Porto & not both score	15.4%	18.2%	26.1%	0.70×	5.49
Draw & not both score	5.0%	4.1%	6.5%	0.64×	24.23

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica & over 1.5	34.9%	31.8%	22.4%	1.42×	3.15
Benfica & over 2.5	28.1%	26.5%	17.3%	1.53×	3.78
Benfica & under 3.5	28.2%	26.5%	25.5%	1.04×	3.78
FC Porto & over 1.5	25.1%	26.5%	31.5%	0.84×	3.78
FC Porto & under 3.5	22.0%	21.8%	29.2%	0.75×	4.59
FC Porto & over 2.5	20.3%	21.8%	24.7%	0.88×	4.59
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	17.7%	20.4%	0.87×	5.66
Draw & under 2.5	16.0%	17.7%	17.3%	1.02×	5.66
Draw & under 3.5	16.0%	17.7%	17.3%	1.02×	5.66
Benfica & under 2.5	15.6%	17.7%	14.2%	1.25×	5.66
Benfica & over 3.5	15.5%	17.7%	6.0%	2.94×	5.66
FC Porto & under 2.5	12.3%	12.5%	17.6%	0.71×	8.03
FC Porto & over 3.5	10.5%	12.5%	13.1%	0.95×	8.03
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.6%	9.6%	0.79×	13.17
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.6%	9.6%	0.79×	13.17
Benfica & under 1.5	8.8%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.17
FC Porto & under 1.5	7.5%	7.6%	10.8%	0.70×	13.17
Draw & under 1.5	5.0%	4.3%	6.5%	0.67×	22.99

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (1UP)	60.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
FC Porto (1UP)	50.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (2UP)	43.7%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
FC Porto (2UP)	32.6%	36.2%	—	—	2.76

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to win 2nd half	38.6%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
2nd half drawn	33.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
FC Porto to win 2nd half	28.0%	29.7%	—	—	3.37

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (+2.5)	95.0%	96.6%	89.7%	1.08×	1.04
Benfica (+1.5)	85.8%	87.4%	77.8%	1.12×	1.14
Benfica (+0.5)	67.4%	68.0%	57.9%	1.18×	1.47
FC Porto (+0.5)	56.3%	58.3%	68.7%	0.85×	1.72
Benfica (-0.5)	43.7%	41.7%	31.3%	1.33×	2.40
FC Porto (-0.5)	32.6%	32.0%	42.1%	0.76×	3.13
FC Porto (-1.5)	14.2%	12.6%	22.2%	0.57×	7.93
FC Porto (-2.5)	5.0%	3.4%	10.3%	0.33×	29.48

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to concede	73.8%	75.6%	73.9%	1.02×	1.32
Benfica clean sheet	26.2%	24.5%	26.1%	0.94×	4.09

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica clean sheet in 1st half	56.2%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Benfica to concede in 1st half	43.8%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica over 2.5 corners	79.5%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Benfica under 6.5 corners	76.7%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Benfica under 5.5 corners	65.3%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Benfica over 3.5 corners	64.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Benfica under 4.5 corners	51.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Benfica over 4.5 corners	48.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Benfica under 3.5 corners	35.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Benfica over 5.5 corners	34.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Benfica over 6.5 corners	23.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Benfica under 2.5 corners	20.5%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica under 3.5 goals	92.2%	92.1%	96.1%	0.96×	1.09
Benfica over 0.5 goals	79.6%	76.5%	67.6%	1.13×	1.31
Benfica under 2.5 goals	78.6%	76.4%	88.9%	0.86×	1.31
Benfica under 1.5 goals	52.8%	53.6%	65.4%	0.82×	1.87
Benfica over 1.5 goals	47.2%	46.4%	34.6%	1.34×	2.16
Benfica over 2.5 goals	21.4%	23.6%	11.1%	2.12×	4.25
Benfica under 0.5 goals	20.4%	23.6%	32.4%	0.73×	4.25
Benfica over 3.5 goals	7.8%	7.9%	3.9%	2.06×	12.61

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica under 1.5 in 1st half	86.6%	86.9%	—	—	1.15
Benfica under 0.5 in 1st half	52.9%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Benfica over 0.5 in 1st half	47.1%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Benfica over 1.5 in 1st half	13.4%	13.1%	—	—	7.65

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (away no bet)	57.9%	58.5%	61.2%	0.96×	1.71
Draw (away no bet)	42.1%	41.5%	38.8%	1.07×	2.41

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica even goals	52.1%	53.5%	58.6%	0.91×	1.87
Benfica odd goals	47.9%	46.5%	41.4%	1.12×	2.15

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.5%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.5%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.7%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.3%	33.4%	—	—	2.99

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.3%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Benfica to score 2+ in a row	37.9%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
FC Porto to score 2+ in a row	29.1%	27.1%	—	—	3.68
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.8%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Benfica to score 3+ in a row	13.5%	12.8%	—	—	7.82
FC Porto to score 3+ in a row	8.6%	7.8%	—	—	12.75

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica corners (+3.5)	88.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Benfica corners (+2.5)	82.4%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
FC Porto corners (+3.5)	79.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Benfica corners (+1.5)	73.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
FC Porto corners (+2.5)	70.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
FC Porto corners (+1.5)	59.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Benfica corners (-1.5)	40.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Benfica corners (-2.5)	29.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
FC Porto corners (-1.5)	26.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Benfica corners (-3.5)	20.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
FC Porto corners (-2.5)	17.6%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
FC Porto corners (-3.5)	11.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	50.1%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
9-11 corners	28.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	21.4%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.0%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	78.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	70.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	61.3%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	61.0%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 8.5 corners	50.1%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	49.9%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	38.7%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 9.5 corners	39.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	29.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 11.5 corners	21.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	15.0%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.0%	11.2%	11.0%	1.03×	8.90
0-1	8.8%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.48
0-2	6.8%	7.4%	5.2%	1.41×	13.49
1-0	7.5%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.48
1-2	9.0%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.48
2-1	7.6%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.48
2-2	6.1%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.49
0-0	5.0%	1.7%	6.5%	0.27×	58.10
0-3	3.6%	1.7%	3.9%	0.45×	58.10
0-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.11
1-3	4.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.10
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.11
2-0	4.8%	1.7%	6.9%	0.25×	58.10
2-3	3.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.10
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.11
3-0	2.1%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.11
3-1	3.4%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.10
3-2	2.7%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.10
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.11
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.2%	11.15×	58.11
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.11
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.11
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.11
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.58×	58.11
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.58×	58.11
Any other score	3.5%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.10

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica leading at HT (DNB)	53.3%	56.0%	—	—	1.79
FC Porto leading at HT (DNB)	46.7%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto or Benfica (12)	76.3%	76.5%	73.3%	1.04×	1.31
Benfica or draw (X2)	67.4%	68.6%	57.9%	1.19×	1.46
FC Porto or draw (1X)	56.3%	58.3%	68.7%	0.85×	1.72

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica or draw at HT	72.7%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
FC Porto or draw at HT	68.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
FC Porto or Benfica at HT	58.4%	57.3%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica or draw (1UP)	67.4%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
FC Porto or draw (1UP)	56.3%	64.7%	—	—	1.55

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica or draw in 2nd half	72.0%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
FC Porto or Benfica in 2nd half	66.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
FC Porto or draw in 2nd half	61.4%	63.1%	—	—	1.58

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.4%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Neither half drawn	38.6%	39.9%	—	—	2.51

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (DNB)	57.3%	57.0%	42.6%	1.34×	1.76
FC Porto (DNB)	42.7%	43.0%	57.4%	0.75×	2.32

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to score first	51.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
FC Porto to score first	43.4%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
No goal scored	5.0%	4.5%	—	—	22.01

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.4%	55.7%	48.0%	1.16×	1.80
Not both teams to score	41.6%	44.3%	52.0%	0.85×	2.26

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.4%	45.2%	37.2%	1.21×	2.21
Not both score & under 2.5	32.9%	34.0%	38.0%	0.90×	2.94
Both score & under 2.5	11.0%	11.9%	11.0%	1.09×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.5%	14.2%	0.60×	11.81

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.7%	83.1%	86.0%	0.97×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	18.3%	16.9%	14.0%	1.21×	5.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.3%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.7%	31.9%	—	—	3.13

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.5%	54.2%	—	—	1.84
Both score 2nd half only	26.0%	25.9%	—	—	3.87
Both score 1st half only	13.8%	11.9%	—	—	8.38
Both score in both halves	6.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.07

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.4%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	20.6%	20.4%	—	—	4.91

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.5%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	42.5%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.9%	43.4%	45.7%	0.95×	2.31
4-6 goals	30.7%	30.8%	27.6%	1.12×	3.24
0-1 goals	21.3%	23.3%	26.1%	0.89×	4.29
7+ goals	3.0%	2.0%	0.9%	2.15×	50.22

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to score exactly 1	32.4%	32.5%	33.2%	0.98×	3.08
Benfica to score exactly 2	25.8%	27.4%	23.6%	1.16×	3.66
Benfica to score 3+	21.4%	23.1%	11.1%	2.08×	4.32
Benfica to score exactly 0	20.4%	23.1%	32.4%	0.71×	4.33

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to score exactly 1	35.1%	36.5%	31.5%	1.16×	2.74
FC Porto to score exactly 0	26.2%	26.4%	26.1%	1.01×	3.79
FC Porto to score exactly 2	23.5%	22.9%	23.6%	0.97×	4.37
FC Porto to score 3+	15.2%	18.3%	19.1%	0.96×	5.45

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.6%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Benfica leading at HT	31.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
FC Porto leading at HT	27.3%	28.8%	—	—	3.47

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica -1: 1	56.3%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Benfica -1: X	21.7%	23.2%	—	—	4.30
Benfica -1: 2	22.0%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (0:1)	67.4%	64.7%	57.9%	1.12×	1.55
Draw (0:1)	18.4%	18.2%	20.1%	0.91×	5.51
FC Porto (0:1)	14.2%	13.2%	22.2%	0.59×	7.59

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (0:2)	85.8%	86.7%	77.8%	1.11×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.2%	7.7%	12.0%	0.64×	12.94
FC Porto (0:2)	5.0%	3.5%	10.3%	0.34×	28.75

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (0:3)	95.0%	96.7%	89.7%	1.08×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.6%	2.6%	6.0%	0.43×	38.96
FC Porto (0:3)	1.4%	2.6%	4.5%	0.57×	38.99

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (0:4)	98.6%	97.7%	95.5%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.4%	3.2%	0.44×	70.58
FC Porto (0:4)	0.3%	1.4%	1.4%	1.02×	70.61

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (1:0)	56.3%	59.2%	68.7%	0.86×	1.69
Benfica (1:0)	22.0%	21.9%	13.7%	1.60×	4.56
Draw (1:0)	21.7%	21.9%	17.7%	1.24×	4.56

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (2:0)	78.0%	78.2%	86.3%	0.91×	1.28
Draw (2:0)	13.0%	11.5%	7.1%	1.63×	8.67
Benfica (2:0)	8.9%	6.7%	6.8%	0.98×	14.98

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.5%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	27.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	23.2%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to concede	79.6%	77.1%	67.6%	1.14×	1.30
FC Porto clean sheet	20.4%	22.9%	32.4%	0.71×	4.37

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto clean sheet in 1st half	52.9%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
FC Porto to concede in 1st half	47.1%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto under 6.5 corners	85.0%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
FC Porto under 5.5 corners	75.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
FC Porto over 2.5 corners	71.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
FC Porto under 4.5 corners	62.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
FC Porto over 3.5 corners	54.1%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
FC Porto under 3.5 corners	45.9%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
FC Porto over 4.5 corners	37.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
FC Porto under 2.5 corners	28.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
FC Porto over 5.5 corners	24.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
FC Porto over 6.5 corners	15.0%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto under 3.5 goals	95.3%	96.6%	93.5%	1.03×	1.04
FC Porto under 2.5 goals	84.8%	82.2%	80.9%	1.02×	1.22
FC Porto over 0.5 goals	73.8%	73.2%	73.9%	0.99×	1.37
FC Porto under 1.5 goals	61.3%	62.4%	57.4%	1.09×	1.60
FC Porto over 1.5 goals	38.7%	37.6%	42.6%	0.88×	2.66
FC Porto under 0.5 goals	26.2%	26.8%	26.1%	1.03×	3.73
FC Porto over 2.5 goals	15.2%	17.8%	19.1%	0.93×	5.61
FC Porto over 3.5 goals	4.7%	3.4%	6.5%	0.53×	29.03

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto under 1.5 in 1st half	88.6%	87.3%	—	—	1.15
FC Porto under 0.5 in 1st half	56.2%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
FC Porto over 0.5 in 1st half	43.8%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
FC Porto over 1.5 in 1st half	11.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.89

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica (home no bet)	64.9%	60.5%	54.0%	1.12×	1.65
Draw (home no bet)	35.1%	39.5%	46.0%	0.86×	2.53

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto even goals	53.4%	50.9%	54.6%	0.93×	1.96
FC Porto odd goals	46.6%	49.1%	45.4%	1.08×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.7%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
HT 0-1	19.0%	20.1%	—	—	4.99
HT 1-0	17.2%	20.0%	—	—	4.99
HT 1-1	10.8%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
HT 0-2	6.0%	8.0%	—	—	12.48
HT 2-0	4.9%	2.5%	—	—	40.33
Any other HT score	4.7%	2.5%	—	—	40.34
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.5%	—	—	40.39
HT 2-1	3.1%	2.5%	—	—	40.41
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.5%	—	—	40.50

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica at HT / Benfica at FT	24.3%	20.6%	—	—	4.87
FC Porto at HT / FC Porto at FT	18.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.82
Draw at HT / Benfica at FT	16.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.82
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.5%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Draw at HT / FC Porto at FT	11.8%	12.2%	—	—	8.21
FC Porto at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.4%	—	—	15.59
Benfica at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.7%	—	—	27.26
FC Porto at HT / Benfica at FT	3.2%	3.7%	—	—	27.31
Benfica at HT / FC Porto at FT	2.1%	3.7%	—	—	27.34

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to score last	51.6%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
FC Porto to score last	43.5%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
No goal scored	5.0%	4.5%	—	—	22.01

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.0%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Benfica to lead by 1 at any time	60.4%	63.9%	—	—	1.57
FC Porto to lead by 1 at any time	50.9%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Benfica to lead by 2 at any time	29.0%	25.8%	—	—	3.87
FC Porto to lead by 2 at any time	20.6%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.1%	17.3%	—	—	5.78
Benfica to lead by 3 at any time	11.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
FC Porto to lead by 3 at any time	6.8%	7.6%	—	—	13.19

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica most corners	51.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
FC Porto most corners	36.5%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.63

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.3%	87.2%	89.8%	0.97×	1.15
1-4 goals	77.7%	77.9%	83.0%	0.94×	1.28
2-6 goals	75.7%	77.9%	73.1%	1.07×	1.28
2-5 goals	71.0%	72.1%	70.2%	1.03×	1.39
2-4 goals	61.3%	62.7%	63.4%	0.99×	1.60
1-3 goals	61.3%	62.7%	65.3%	0.96×	1.60
3-6 goals	53.1%	52.9%	50.5%	1.05×	1.89
3-5 goals	48.4%	47.4%	47.5%	1.00×	2.11
2-3 goals	44.9%	43.7%	45.7%	0.96×	2.29
1-2 goals	38.9%	39.0%	42.4%	0.92×	2.56
3-4 goals	38.8%	39.0%	40.7%	0.96×	2.56
4-6 goals	30.7%	34.6%	27.6%	1.25×	2.89
4-5 goals	26.0%	28.5%	24.7%	1.16×	3.51
5-6 goals	14.3%	13.5%	9.9%	1.37×	7.40
7+ goals	3.0%	2.2%	0.9%	2.42×	44.56

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica never behind	44.1%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
FC Porto never behind	34.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.6%	50.0%	49.8%	1.00×	2.00
Even number of goals	49.4%	50.0%	50.2%	1.00×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.4%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.6%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.0%	96.0%	93.5%	1.03×	1.04
Under 5.5 goals	92.3%	92.3%	96.1%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.7%	81.7%	89.4%	0.91×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	78.7%	77.0%	73.9%	1.04×	1.30
Under 3.5 goals	66.3%	67.5%	71.6%	0.94×	1.48
Over 2.5 goals	56.1%	57.5%	51.2%	1.12×	1.74
Under 2.5 goals	43.9%	42.5%	48.8%	0.87×	2.35
Over 3.5 goals	33.7%	32.5%	28.4%	1.14×	3.08
Under 1.5 goals	21.3%	23.0%	26.1%	0.88×	4.35
Over 4.5 goals	17.3%	18.3%	10.6%	1.72×	5.46
Over 5.5 goals	7.7%	7.7%	3.9%	2.00×	12.95
Under 0.5 goals	5.0%	4.0%	6.5%	0.61×	25.24

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.8%	97.3%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.5%	92.0%	95.9%	0.96×	1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.3%	76.2%	87.1%	0.88×	1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	72.5%	71.7%	66.3%	1.08×	1.40
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	56.5%	58.0%	63.2%	0.92×	1.73
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.5%	42.0%	36.8%	1.14×	2.38
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.5%	28.3%	33.7%	0.84×	3.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.7%	23.8%	12.9%	1.84×	4.21
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.5%	8.0%	4.1%	1.92×	12.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.2%	2.7%	1.0%	2.86×	36.68

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.7%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.3%	73.4%	—	—	1.36
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.9%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.1%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.7%	26.6%	—	—	3.75
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.3%	11.7%	—	—	8.58

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.2%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.9%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.1%	49.8%	—	—	2.01
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.8%	17.4%	—	—	5.76

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto not to score in both halves	76.6%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
Benfica not to score in both halves	71.0%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Benfica to score in both halves	29.0%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
FC Porto to score in both halves	23.4%	23.7%	—	—	4.22

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.4%	57.9%	48.0%	1.21×	1.73
Only Benfica scores	21.2%	21.3%	19.8%	1.08×	4.71
Only FC Porto scores	15.4%	17.1%	26.1%	0.66×	5.84
Neither team scores	5.0%	4.0%	6.5%	0.62×	25.08

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.6%	22.3%	22.8%	0.98×	4.48
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.3%	23.0%	0.97×	4.48
Exactly 1 goals	16.3%	17.6%	19.8%	0.89×	5.69
Exactly 4 goals	16.4%	17.6%	17.9%	0.98×	5.69
Exactly 5 goals	9.6%	7.8%	6.9%	1.12×	12.88
6 or more goals	7.7%	7.8%	3.9%	2.01×	12.89
Exactly 0 goals	5.0%	4.1%	6.5%	0.63×	24.65

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.1%	49.8%	—	—	2.01
1 goal in 2nd half	31.1%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
No goals in 2nd half	17.8%	16.6%	—	—	6.03

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto not to win both halves	92.4%	92.2%	—	—	1.08
Benfica not to win both halves	88.0%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Benfica to win both halves	12.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
FC Porto to win both halves	7.6%	7.8%	—	—	12.90

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Benfica to win either half	57.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
FC Porto to win neither half	52.3%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
FC Porto to win either half	47.7%	48.9%	—	—	2.05
Benfica to win neither half	42.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto not to win to nil	84.6%	82.7%	73.9%	1.12×	1.21
Benfica not to win to nil	78.8%	78.7%	80.2%	0.98×	1.27
Benfica to win to nil	21.2%	21.3%	19.8%	1.08×	4.70
FC Porto to win to nil	15.4%	17.3%	26.1%	0.67×	5.77

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.7%	23.3%	26.7%	0.87×	4.29
Benfica by 1	21.7%	23.3%	17.7%	1.31×	4.29
FC Porto by 1	18.4%	17.3%	20.1%	0.86×	5.78
Benfica by 2	13.0%	11.8%	7.1%	1.67×	8.46
FC Porto by 2	9.2%	7.3%	12.0%	0.61×	13.65
Benfica by 3+	8.9%	7.3%	6.8%	1.08×	13.66
FC Porto by 3+	5.0%	3.0%	10.3%	0.29×	33.79