FC Porto v Estoril — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

FC Porto

20:00 UTC

Estoril

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 177h before kick-off

FC Porto win

75.2%

model 74.5%

Draw

17.7%

model 16.3%

Estoril win

7.1%

model 9.2%

75187

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (94 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 14.0%
1-0 12.6%
3-0 10.6%
2-1 9.0%
1-1 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	55.7%	Under 2.5	44.3%
BTTS yes	42.4%	BTTS no	57.6%
FC Porto 1+	89.7%	FC Porto 2+	66.2%
Estoril 1+	47.5%	Estoril 2+	13.7%

Expected goals 2.27 – 0.65. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

FC Porto (-1.5)

Asian handicap · usually 22%

52.1% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 1133 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Estoril to win neither half

Win either half

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 124 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

FC Porto carry the stronger rating, 1776 Elo against 1417.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Porto have an estimated 75.2% win probability, against 17.7% for the draw and 7.1% for Estoril. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.27 for FC Porto and 0.65 for Estoril.

Why FC Porto

FC Porto carry the stronger rating, 1776 Elo against 1417. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.7%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Estoril can win

Nothing in the data singles out Estoril.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Porto, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Estoril, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Porto: 47% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Estoril: 45% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

FC Porto are the model's most likely outcome at 75.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 14.0%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	75169	2.27–0.65	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	77158	2.37–0.59	2-0 14%	57%	40%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to win	77.3%	78.2%	42.1%	1.86×	1.28
Draw	15.0%	13.5%	26.7%	0.51×	7.40
Estoril to win	7.8%	8.1%	31.4%	0.26×	12.29

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto & not both score	50.3%	47.9%	26.0%	1.84×	2.09
FC Porto & both teams score	27.0%	25.2%	16.2%	1.56×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	10.0%	13.3%	20.3%	0.65×	7.54
Draw & not both score	4.9%	4.9%	6.5%	0.75×	20.51
Estoril & not both score	4.4%	4.9%	19.9%	0.25×	20.53
Estoril & both teams score	3.3%	4.9%	11.7%	0.42×	20.56

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto & over 1.5	64.8%	54.9%	31.4%	1.75×	1.82
FC Porto & over 2.5	50.3%	48.8%	24.7%	1.98×	2.05
FC Porto & under 3.5	47.1%	45.0%	29.1%	1.55×	2.22
FC Porto & over 3.5	30.2%	30.7%	13.1%	2.35×	3.25
FC Porto & under 2.5	27.0%	26.1%	17.6%	1.48×	3.84
FC Porto & under 1.5	12.5%	12.8%	10.8%	1.19×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	12.0%	12.8%	17.3%	0.74×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.0%	12.8%	17.3%	0.74×	7.79
Draw & over 1.5	10.0%	12.8%	20.3%	0.63×	7.79
Estoril & under 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	25.4%	0.31×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.9%	4.8%	6.5%	0.74×	20.81
Estoril & over 1.5	4.4%	4.8%	22.5%	0.21×	20.81
Estoril & under 2.5	4.2%	4.8%	14.2%	0.34×	20.81
Estoril & under 1.5	3.3%	4.8%	9.1%	0.53×	20.82
Estoril & over 2.5	3.5%	4.8%	17.4%	0.28×	20.82
Draw & over 2.5	3.0%	4.8%	9.6%	0.50×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	3.0%	4.8%	9.6%	0.50×	20.82
Estoril & over 3.5	1.2%	4.8%	6.2%	0.78×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (1UP)	84.0%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Estoril (1UP)	21.2%	21.6%	—	—	4.63

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (2UP)	77.3%	77.3%	—	—	1.29
Estoril (2UP)	7.8%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to win 2nd half	62.4%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
2nd half drawn	27.8%	26.1%	—	—	3.84
Estoril to win 2nd half	9.8%	7.7%	—	—	13.04

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 1.5 in 2nd half	95.0%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Estoril under 0.5 in 2nd half	70.0%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Estoril over 0.5 in 2nd half	30.0%	24.7%	—	—	4.05
Estoril over 1.5 in 2nd half	5.0%	7.5%	—	—	13.41

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.1%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
FC Porto under 1.5 in 2nd half	60.9%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
FC Porto over 1.5 in 2nd half	39.1%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
FC Porto under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (+0.5)	92.2%	92.1%	68.6%	1.34×	1.09
FC Porto (-0.5)	77.3%	78.5%	42.1%	1.87×	1.27
Estoril (+2.5)	68.7%	68.7%	89.7%	0.77×	1.46
FC Porto (-1.5)	53.9%	52.4%	22.2%	2.36×	1.91
Estoril (+1.5)	46.1%	47.6%	77.8%	0.61×	2.10
FC Porto (-2.5)	31.3%	31.3%	10.3%	3.03×	3.19
Estoril (+0.5)	22.7%	21.5%	57.9%	0.37×	4.65
Estoril (-0.5)	7.8%	7.9%	31.4%	0.25×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to concede	90.6%	91.7%	73.8%	1.24×	1.09
Estoril clean sheet	9.4%	8.3%	26.2%	0.32×	12.00

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to concede in 1st half	63.9%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Estoril clean sheet in 1st half	36.1%	35.5%	—	—	2.81

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to concede in 2nd half	74.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Estoril clean sheet in 2nd half	25.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.53

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 6.5 corners	93.2%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Estoril under 5.5 corners	87.0%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Estoril under 4.5 corners	76.7%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Estoril under 3.5 corners	61.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Estoril over 2.5 corners	58.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Estoril under 2.5 corners	42.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Estoril over 3.5 corners	38.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Estoril over 4.5 corners	23.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Estoril over 5.5 corners	13.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Estoril over 6.5 corners	6.8%	10.1%	—	—	9.89

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 3.5 goals	99.7%	97.5%	96.0%	1.02×	1.03
Estoril under 2.5 goals	97.7%	97.5%	88.8%	1.10×	1.03
Estoril under 1.5 goals	88.0%	87.8%	65.3%	1.34×	1.14
Estoril under 0.5 goals	55.2%	59.4%	32.4%	1.84×	1.68
Estoril over 0.5 goals	44.8%	40.6%	67.6%	0.60×	2.46
Estoril over 1.5 goals	12.0%	12.2%	34.7%	0.35×	8.20
Estoril over 2.5 goals	2.3%	2.5%	11.2%	0.22×	39.95
Estoril over 3.5 goals	0.3%	2.5%	4.0%	0.62×	40.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 1.5 in 1st half	97.6%	96.3%	—	—	1.04
Estoril under 0.5 in 1st half	78.9%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
Estoril over 0.5 in 1st half	21.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.25
Estoril over 1.5 in 1st half	2.4%	3.7%	—	—	26.90

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril scores equally in both	60.0%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Estoril scores more in 2nd half	24.6%	21.9%	—	—	4.58
Estoril scores more in 1st half	15.4%	17.9%	—	—	5.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (away no bet)	83.8%	82.8%	61.2%	1.35×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	16.2%	17.2%	38.8%	0.44×	5.82

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril even goals	65.2%	64.8%	58.7%	1.10×	1.54
Estoril odd goals	34.8%	35.2%	41.3%	0.85×	2.84

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.8%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.2%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.3%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	31.7%	31.6%	—	—	3.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.5%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
FC Porto to score 2+ in a row	63.6%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	36.2%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
FC Porto to score 3+ in a row	35.4%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Estoril to score 2+ in a row	7.1%	5.5%	—	—	18.10
Estoril to score 3+ in a row	0.9%	2.5%	—	—	40.28

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto corners (+3.5)	96.3%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
FC Porto corners (+2.5)	93.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
FC Porto corners (+1.5)	88.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
FC Porto corners (-1.5)	62.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Estoril corners (+3.5)	60.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
FC Porto corners (-2.5)	51.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Estoril corners (+2.5)	49.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
FC Porto corners (-3.5)	40.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Estoril corners (+1.5)	37.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Estoril corners (-1.5)	11.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Estoril corners (-2.5)	6.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Estoril corners (-3.5)	3.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	47.0%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	28.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	24.3%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	64.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	57.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	47.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 9.5 corners	42.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	36.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	32.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	24.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	17.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	14.5%	11.5%	6.9%	1.66×	8.71
1-0	12.5%	11.5%	10.8%	1.06×	8.72
3-0	11.5%	11.5%	4.8%	2.40×	8.72
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.51
Any other score	9.2%	7.4%	2.9%	2.53×	13.51
3-1	6.8%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.51
4-0	6.8%	7.4%	2.8%	2.67×	13.51
1-1	7.0%	7.4%	10.9%	0.68×	13.51
0-0	4.9%	1.7%	6.5%	0.27×	58.29
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.32
2-2	2.6%	1.7%	8.3%	0.21×	58.30
2-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.32
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.78×	58.32
3-2	2.0%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	11.13×	58.32
4-1	4.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.30
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	0.6%	2.78×	58.31
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.56×	58.32
0-1	3.3%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.30
0-2	0.9%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.31
0-3	0.2%	1.7%	3.9%	0.45×	58.32
0-4	0.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.32
1-2	2.2%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.31
1-3	0.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (2nd half DNB)	86.5%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Estoril (2nd half DNB)	13.5%	13.8%	—	—	7.24

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto leading at HT (DNB)	86.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Estoril leading at HT (DNB)	13.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.34

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto or draw (1X)	92.2%	91.9%	68.6%	1.34×	1.09
FC Porto or Estoril (12)	85.0%	86.5%	73.3%	1.18×	1.16
Estoril or draw (X2)	22.7%	21.8%	57.9%	0.38×	4.59

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto or draw at HT	91.4%	91.3%	—	—	1.10
FC Porto or Estoril at HT	64.3%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Estoril or draw at HT	44.3%	43.2%	—	—	2.31

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto or draw (1UP)	92.2%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Estoril or draw (1UP)	22.7%	23.8%	—	—	4.21

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto or draw in 2nd half	90.2%	92.3%	—	—	1.08
FC Porto or Estoril in 2nd half	72.2%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Estoril or draw in 2nd half	37.6%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.9%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Neither half drawn	46.1%	49.7%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (DNB)	90.9%	93.1%	57.2%	1.63×	1.07
Estoril (DNB)	9.1%	6.9%	42.8%	0.16×	14.56

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to score first	76.0%	80.4%	—	—	1.24
Estoril to score first	19.1%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
No goal scored	4.9%	4.4%	—	—	22.91

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	59.6%	55.1%	52.1%	1.06×	1.82
Both teams to score	40.4%	44.9%	47.9%	0.94×	2.23

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	36.1%	38.4%	37.9%	1.01×	2.60
Both score & over 2.5	33.3%	34.5%	37.1%	0.93×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	23.5%	27.8%	14.3%	1.94×	3.59
Both score & under 2.5	7.0%	8.3%	10.9%	0.76×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.8%	89.0%	86.0%	1.04×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	8.2%	11.0%	14.0%	0.78×	9.09

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	77.9%	75.0%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	22.1%	25.0%	—	—	4.00

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	67.4%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Both score 2nd half only	19.1%	15.1%	—	—	6.61
Both score 1st half only	10.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	3.0%	4.9%	—	—	20.50

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.5%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	13.5%	14.6%	—	—	6.84

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	41.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.9%	42.2%	45.6%	0.92×	2.37
4-6 goals	31.3%	30.7%	27.7%	1.11×	3.26
0-1 goals	20.7%	22.9%	26.0%	0.88×	4.37
7+ goals	3.1%	1.8%	0.9%	2.00×	54.22

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to score exactly 0	55.2%	51.6%	32.4%	1.60×	1.94
Estoril to score exactly 1	32.8%	33.8%	33.1%	1.02×	2.96
Estoril to score exactly 2	9.7%	8.6%	23.6%	0.36×	11.67
Estoril to score 3+	2.3%	4.6%	11.2%	0.41×	21.92

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to score 3+	42.2%	35.2%	19.1%	1.84×	2.84
FC Porto to score exactly 2	26.3%	26.5%	23.6%	1.13×	3.77
FC Porto to score exactly 1	22.2%	23.3%	31.4%	0.74×	4.29
FC Porto to score exactly 0	9.4%	10.4%	26.2%	0.40×	9.66

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto leading at HT	55.7%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Draw at HT	35.7%	39.0%	—	—	2.56
Estoril leading at HT	8.6%	8.7%	—	—	11.44

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto -1: 1	53.9%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
FC Porto -1: X	23.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
FC Porto -1: 2	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (0:1)	53.9%	51.3%	22.2%	2.31×	1.95
Draw (0:1)	23.4%	24.2%	20.0%	1.21×	4.13
Estoril (0:1)	22.7%	24.2%	57.9%	0.42×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (0:2)	46.1%	50.9%	77.8%	0.65×	1.97
FC Porto (0:2)	31.3%	28.8%	10.3%	2.79×	3.47
Draw (0:2)	22.6%	20.3%	12.0%	1.69×	4.92

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (0:3)	68.7%	71.7%	89.7%	0.80×	1.39
Draw (0:3)	16.1%	16.2%	6.0%	2.69×	6.18
FC Porto (0:3)	15.2%	16.1%	4.5%	3.61×	6.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (0:4)	84.8%	87.2%	95.5%	0.91×	1.15
Draw (0:4)	8.9%	4.7%	3.2%	1.45×	21.34
FC Porto (0:4)	6.2%	4.6%	1.4%	3.34×	21.56

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (1:0)	92.2%	92.7%	68.6%	1.35×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	6.0%	6.9%	17.7%	0.39×	14.50
Estoril (1:0)	1.7%	3.2%	13.9%	0.23×	30.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (2:0)	98.3%	96.8%	86.1%	1.12×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	1.4%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	43.80
Estoril (2:0)	0.3%	2.3%	6.9%	0.33×	43.87

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.2%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	23.5%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto clean sheet	55.2%	60.6%	32.4%	1.87×	1.65
FC Porto to concede	44.8%	39.4%	67.6%	0.58×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto clean sheet in 1st half	78.9%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
FC Porto to concede in 1st half	21.1%	20.8%	—	—	4.81

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto clean sheet in 2nd half	70.0%	72.0%	—	—	1.39
FC Porto to concede in 2nd half	30.0%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto over 2.5 corners	88.2%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
FC Porto over 3.5 corners	77.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
FC Porto over 4.5 corners	64.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
FC Porto under 6.5 corners	61.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
FC Porto over 5.5 corners	50.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
FC Porto under 5.5 corners	49.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
FC Porto over 6.5 corners	38.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
FC Porto under 4.5 corners	35.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
FC Porto under 3.5 corners	22.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
FC Porto under 2.5 corners	11.8%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto over 0.5 goals	90.6%	92.2%	73.8%	1.25×	1.08
FC Porto under 3.5 goals	78.6%	77.8%	93.5%	0.83×	1.29
FC Porto over 1.5 goals	68.5%	68.0%	42.5%	1.60×	1.47
FC Porto under 2.5 goals	57.8%	58.6%	80.9%	0.72×	1.71
FC Porto over 2.5 goals	42.2%	41.4%	19.1%	2.17×	2.42
FC Porto under 1.5 goals	31.5%	32.0%	57.5%	0.56×	3.12
FC Porto over 3.5 goals	21.4%	22.2%	6.5%	3.44×	4.50
FC Porto under 0.5 goals	9.4%	7.8%	26.2%	0.30×	12.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto under 1.5 in 1st half	72.9%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
FC Porto over 0.5 in 1st half	63.9%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
FC Porto under 0.5 in 1st half	36.1%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
FC Porto over 1.5 in 1st half	27.1%	20.6%	—	—	4.86

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto scores more in 2nd half	44.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
FC Porto scores more in 1st half	28.3%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
FC Porto scores equally in both	27.4%	27.9%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	65.9%	64.1%	45.9%	1.40×	1.56
Estoril (home no bet)	34.1%	35.9%	54.1%	0.66×	2.78

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto even goals	50.4%	50.7%	54.7%	0.93×	1.97
FC Porto odd goals	49.6%	49.3%	45.3%	1.09×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	29.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
HT 0-0	28.4%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
HT 2-0	14.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
Any other HT score	8.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
HT 1-1	6.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
HT 0-1	6.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.4%	—	—	41.98
HT 0-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.16
HT 1-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.15
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.18

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto at HT / FC Porto at FT	52.3%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Draw at HT / FC Porto at FT	22.4%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.37
Draw at HT / Estoril at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Estoril at HT / Estoril at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
FC Porto at HT / Draw at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Estoril at HT / FC Porto at FT	2.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
Estoril at HT / Draw at FT	2.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
FC Porto at HT / Estoril at FT	0.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.95

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to score last	75.9%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Estoril to score last	19.1%	14.6%	—	—	6.86
No goal scored	4.9%	4.4%	—	—	22.91

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.1%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
FC Porto to lead by 1 at any time	84.0%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	62.1%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
FC Porto to lead by 2 at any time	58.6%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	34.3%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
FC Porto to lead by 3 at any time	33.8%	29.8%	—	—	3.35
Estoril to lead by 1 at any time	21.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Estoril to lead by 2 at any time	3.7%	1.6%	—	—	61.39
Estoril to lead by 3 at any time	0.5%	1.6%	—	—	64.46

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto most corners	72.8%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Estoril most corners	18.3%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	8.9%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.1%	87.4%	89.8%	0.97×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.3%	78.7%	83.1%	0.95×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.2%	78.7%	73.2%	1.07×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.3%	72.3%	70.3%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.5%	63.3%	63.5%	1.00×	1.58
1-3 goals	60.7%	63.3%	65.2%	0.97×	1.58
3-6 goals	53.7%	53.2%	50.5%	1.05×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.9%	48.5%	47.6%	1.02×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.9%	43.6%	45.6%	0.96×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.0%	39.2%	40.8%	0.96×	2.55
1-2 goals	38.2%	39.2%	42.4%	0.92×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.3%	35.2%	27.7%	1.27×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.4%	30.2%	24.8%	1.22×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.7%	14.8%	9.9%	1.50×	6.75
7+ goals	3.1%	2.6%	0.9%	2.77×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto never behind	73.9%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Estoril never behind	11.1%	11.8%	—	—	8.47

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	50.2%	1.01×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	49.8%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.0%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.0%	48.2%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.5%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.1%	95.4%	93.5%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	96.1%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.2%	82.3%	89.4%	0.92×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	79.3%	77.3%	74.0%	1.05×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	65.6%	66.3%	71.5%	0.93×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	56.8%	58.6%	51.3%	1.14×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	43.2%	41.4%	48.7%	0.85×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	34.4%	33.7%	28.5%	1.18×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	20.7%	22.7%	26.0%	0.87×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	17.8%	17.7%	10.6%	1.66×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	3.9%	2.01×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	4.9%	4.6%	6.5%	0.71×	21.82

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.7%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.2%	92.4%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.6%	75.9%	87.1%	0.87×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	73.3%	72.4%	66.3%	1.09×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.7%	55.8%	63.1%	0.88×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.3%	44.2%	36.9%	1.20×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	26.7%	27.6%	33.7%	0.82×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.4%	24.1%	12.9%	1.86×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.8%	7.6%	4.1%	1.84×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.3%	2.8%	1.0%	2.95×	35.57

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.7%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.6%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.3%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.7%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.4%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.6%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.4%	20.4%	—	—	4.91
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril not to score in both halves	93.7%	90.8%	—	—	1.10
FC Porto not to score in both halves	52.7%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
FC Porto to score in both halves	47.3%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
Estoril to score in both halves	6.3%	9.2%	—	—	10.81

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only FC Porto scores	50.3%	53.8%	26.0%	2.07×	1.86
Both teams score	40.4%	46.5%	47.9%	0.97×	2.15
Neither team scores	4.9%	4.6%	6.5%	0.72×	21.58
Only Estoril scores	4.4%	4.6%	19.9%	0.23×	21.60

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.5%	22.6%	22.8%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.6%	17.5%	18.0%	0.97×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.8%	17.5%	19.7%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.8%	7.6%	6.9%	1.10×	13.13
6 or more goals	8.0%	7.6%	3.9%	1.98×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	4.9%	4.5%	6.5%	0.69×	22.35

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	28.4%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	22.4%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	13.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.17

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.8%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	31.1%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	18.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.99

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril not to win both halves	99.2%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
FC Porto not to win both halves	65.3%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
FC Porto to win both halves	34.7%	30.8%	—	—	3.24
Estoril to win both halves	0.8%	2.7%	—	—	36.67

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to win either half	83.4%	83.7%	—	—	1.19
Estoril to win neither half	82.5%	83.6%	—	—	1.20
Estoril to win either half	17.5%	16.4%	—	—	6.10
FC Porto to win neither half	16.6%	16.3%	—	—	6.15

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril not to win to nil	95.6%	96.1%	80.1%	1.20×	1.04
FC Porto to win to nil	50.3%	53.7%	26.0%	2.06×	1.86
FC Porto not to win to nil	49.7%	46.3%	74.0%	0.63×	2.16
Estoril to win to nil	4.4%	3.9%	19.9%	0.20×	25.63

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto by 3+	31.3%	27.7%	10.3%	2.68×	3.61
FC Porto by 1	23.4%	24.1%	20.0%	1.20×	4.15
FC Porto by 2	22.6%	24.1%	12.0%	2.01×	4.15
Draw	15.0%	11.8%	26.7%	0.44×	8.51
Estoril by 1	6.0%	7.2%	17.7%	0.41×	13.91
Estoril by 2	1.4%	2.7%	7.1%	0.38×	36.89
Estoril by 3+	0.3%	2.7%	6.9%	0.39×	36.92