FC Porto v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627

Champions League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

FC Porto

20:00 UTC

Napoli

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 345h before kick-off

FC Porto win

39.9%

model 39.2%

Draw

28.9%

model 28.2%

Napoli win

31.2%

model 32.6%

402931

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 14.4%
0-1 12.8%
1-1 12.6%
0-0 11.3%
2-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	35.3%	Under 2.5	64.7%
BTTS yes	41.6%	BTTS no	58.4%
FC Porto 1+	67.4%	FC Porto 2+	30.8%
Napoli 1+	62.9%	Napoli 2+	26.1%

Expected goals 1.12 – 0.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Under 2 (void on exactly 2)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 22%

53.8% fair odds 1.86

strong signal · 700 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Napoli not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

FC Porto carry the stronger rating, 1776 Elo against 1660.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
They have had 30 days' rest to Napoli's 18.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Porto have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.2% for Napoli and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.12 for FC Porto and 0.99 for Napoli.

Why FC Porto

FC Porto carry the stronger rating, 1776 Elo against 1660. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. They have had 30 days' rest to Napoli's 18.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. A combined 2.11 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.12 to 0.99. Draws run at 15% in this competition.

Why Napoli can win

Away from home Napoli average 1.92 xG a match.

Key players

Napoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rasmus Højlund (0.42), Scott McTominay (0.38), Kevin De Bruyne (0.35).

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Porto, so availability is unknown. 2 of Napoli's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Porto: 47% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Napoli: 56% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

FC Porto are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.4%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Napoli are finishing below their chances — 3.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWWWLLWDWL last 10 scored 16 from 19.2 xG conceded 10 from 10.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	392833	1.12–0.99	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	373033	1.00–0.91	1-0 16%	30%	37%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to win	37.4%	36.4%	51.0%	0.71×	2.75
Napoli to win	32.6%	30.4%	33.7%	0.90×	3.29
Draw	30.0%	30.4%	15.6%	1.95×	3.29

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto & not both score	26.2%	25.2%	24.5%	1.03×	3.97
Napoli & not both score	22.8%	21.8%	15.6%	1.40×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	16.1%	18.0%	10.7%	1.68×	5.57
Draw & not both score	13.9%	13.3%	5.1%	2.60×	7.53
FC Porto & both teams score	11.2%	13.3%	26.8%	0.50×	7.54
Napoli & both teams score	9.8%	8.3%	18.4%	0.45×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto & under 3.5	32.2%	30.8%	26.8%	1.15×	3.25
Napoli & under 3.5	28.4%	26.1%	19.1%	1.36×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	26.6%	26.1%	10.5%	2.49×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	26.6%	26.1%	10.5%	2.49×	3.84
FC Porto & under 2.5	23.0%	21.6%	14.5%	1.49×	4.63
FC Porto & over 1.5	21.8%	21.6%	42.9%	0.50×	4.63
Napoli & under 2.5	20.4%	21.6%	10.2%	2.12×	4.63
Napoli & over 1.5	18.4%	18.0%	28.1%	0.64×	5.56
FC Porto & under 1.5	15.6%	18.0%	8.4%	2.14×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.1%	18.0%	10.7%	1.68×	5.56
FC Porto & over 2.5	14.4%	12.8%	36.7%	0.35×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	13.9%	12.8%	5.1%	2.52×	7.79
Napoli & under 1.5	14.2%	12.8%	5.9%	2.19×	7.79
Napoli & over 2.5	12.2%	12.8%	23.7%	0.54×	7.79
FC Porto & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	24.5%	0.32×	12.63
Napoli & over 3.5	4.2%	4.8%	14.8%	0.32×	20.81
Draw & over 2.5	3.4%	4.8%	5.4%	0.90×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	3.4%	4.8%	5.4%	0.90×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (1UP)	49.3%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Napoli (1UP)	44.9%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (2UP)	37.4%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Napoli (2UP)	32.6%	30.5%	—	—	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	43.1%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
FC Porto to win 2nd half	29.2%	25.8%	—	—	3.88
Napoli to win 2nd half	27.7%	25.8%	—	—	3.88

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.5%	86.9%	—	—	1.15
Napoli under 0.5 in 2nd half	57.8%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Napoli over 0.5 in 2nd half	42.2%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Napoli over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.5%	13.1%	—	—	7.64

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.7%	88.5%	—	—	1.13
FC Porto under 0.5 in 2nd half	56.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
FC Porto over 0.5 in 2nd half	43.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
FC Porto over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.3%	11.5%	—	—	8.70

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (+2.5)	96.0%	96.3%	81.6%	1.18×	1.04
Napoli (+1.5)	86.0%	88.5%	68.4%	1.29×	1.13
FC Porto (+0.5)	67.4%	68.7%	66.3%	1.04×	1.46
Napoli (+0.5)	62.6%	62.9%	49.0%	1.29×	1.59
FC Porto (-0.5)	37.4%	37.1%	51.0%	0.73×	2.70
Napoli (-0.5)	32.6%	31.3%	33.7%	0.93×	3.19
FC Porto (-1.5)	14.0%	11.5%	31.6%	0.37×	8.66
FC Porto (-2.5)	4.0%	3.7%	18.4%	0.20×	27.04

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede	63.3%	67.6%	79.6%	0.85×	1.48
Napoli clean sheet	36.7%	32.4%	20.4%	1.59×	3.09

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 1st half	65.0%	65.3%	—	—	1.53
Napoli to concede in 1st half	35.0%	34.7%	—	—	2.89

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 2nd half	56.5%	57.3%	—	—	1.74
Napoli to concede in 2nd half	43.5%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 6.5 corners	83.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Napoli under 5.5 corners	74.5%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Napoli over 2.5 corners	70.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Napoli under 4.5 corners	61.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Napoli over 3.5 corners	53.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Napoli under 3.5 corners	46.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Napoli over 4.5 corners	38.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Napoli under 2.5 corners	29.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Napoli over 5.5 corners	25.5%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Napoli over 6.5 corners	16.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 3.5 goals	98.6%	97.5%	92.3%	1.06×	1.03
Napoli under 2.5 goals	93.5%	92.3%	79.1%	1.17×	1.08
Napoli under 1.5 goals	76.8%	76.3%	59.9%	1.27×	1.31
Napoli over 0.5 goals	59.9%	59.4%	70.7%	0.84×	1.68
Napoli under 0.5 goals	40.1%	40.6%	29.3%	1.38×	2.47
Napoli over 1.5 goals	23.2%	23.7%	40.1%	0.59×	4.21
Napoli over 2.5 goals	6.5%	7.7%	20.9%	0.37×	13.07
Napoli over 3.5 goals	1.4%	2.5%	7.7%	0.33×	39.96

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half	94.8%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half	69.4%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half	30.6%	30.4%	—	—	3.29
Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.60

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli scores equally in both	48.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Napoli scores more in 2nd half	32.0%	33.6%	—	—	2.97
Napoli scores more in 1st half	19.4%	18.1%	—	—	5.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (away no bet)	55.5%	57.3%	76.6%	0.75×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	44.5%	42.7%	23.4%	1.83×	2.34

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli even goals	58.1%	56.9%	53.6%	1.06×	1.76
Napoli odd goals	41.9%	43.1%	46.4%	0.93×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	94.1%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	5.9%	7.5%	—	—	13.34

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	56.5%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Not both halves under 1.5	43.5%	39.8%	—	—	2.51

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	38.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
FC Porto to score 2+ in a row	21.8%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Napoli to score 2+ in a row	18.6%	16.3%	—	—	6.14
Either team to score 3+ in a row	9.9%	5.6%	—	—	17.76
FC Porto to score 3+ in a row	5.6%	5.5%	—	—	18.10
Napoli to score 3+ in a row	4.3%	2.6%	—	—	38.11

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto corners (+3.5)	87.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
FC Porto corners (+2.5)	81.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Napoli corners (+3.5)	77.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
FC Porto corners (+1.5)	72.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Napoli corners (+2.5)	69.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Napoli corners (+1.5)	59.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
FC Porto corners (-1.5)	40.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
FC Porto corners (-2.5)	30.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Napoli corners (-1.5)	27.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
FC Porto corners (-3.5)	22.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Napoli corners (-2.5)	18.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Napoli corners (-3.5)	12.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	49.8%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	27.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	23.2%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.1%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	61.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	60.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	50.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	49.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	39.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	30.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	23.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	16.9%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	15.6%	13.8%	8.4%	1.64×	7.24
0-0	13.9%	11.5%	5.1%	2.25×	8.72
0-1	14.2%	11.5%	5.9%	1.95×	8.72
1-1	12.7%	11.5%	5.6%	2.04×	8.72
2-0	7.4%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.50
2-1	6.8%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
0-2	6.1%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.51
1-2	6.2%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.51
0-3	1.9%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.32
1-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.32
2-2	3.1%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.30
2-3	0.9%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.68×	58.32
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.31
3-1	2.3%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.31
3-2	1.0%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.31
3-3	0.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.36×	58.32
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.32
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.32
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	1.3%	1.34×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.36×	58.32
Any other score	0.6%	1.7%	11.5%	0.15×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (2nd half DNB)	51.4%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Napoli (2nd half DNB)	48.6%	47.3%	—	—	2.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto leading at HT (DNB)	55.0%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Napoli leading at HT (DNB)	45.0%	44.9%	—	—	2.23

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto or Napoli (12)	70.0%	69.6%	84.4%	0.82×	1.44
FC Porto or draw (1X)	67.4%	69.6%	66.3%	1.05×	1.44
Napoli or draw (X2)	62.6%	63.6%	49.0%	1.30×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto or draw at HT	78.5%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Napoli or draw at HT	73.7%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
FC Porto or Napoli at HT	47.8%	52.8%	—	—	1.89

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto or draw (1UP)	67.4%	76.2%	—	—	1.31
Napoli or draw (1UP)	62.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto or draw in 2nd half	72.4%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Napoli or draw in 2nd half	70.8%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
FC Porto or Napoli in 2nd half	56.9%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	73.6%	72.2%	—	—	1.38
Neither half drawn	26.4%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (DNB)	53.4%	51.0%	60.2%	0.85×	1.96
Napoli (DNB)	46.6%	49.0%	39.8%	1.23×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to score first	45.1%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Napoli to score first	41.0%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	13.9%	10.3%	—	—	9.70

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	62.9%	56.6%	44.6%	1.27×	1.77
Both teams to score	37.1%	43.4%	55.4%	0.78×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	57.3%	47.6%	29.3%	1.62×	2.10
Both score & over 2.5	24.4%	27.8%	50.0%	0.56×	3.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.7%	12.4%	5.6%	2.20×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	5.6%	8.3%	15.6%	0.53×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	93.8%	89.0%	80.9%	1.10×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	6.2%	11.0%	19.1%	0.57×	9.11

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	81.9%	73.2%	—	—	1.37
Both teams to score in 2nd half	18.1%	26.8%	—	—	3.73

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	73.3%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Both score 2nd half only	16.1%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Both score 1st half only	8.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.63
Both score in both halves	2.0%	4.8%	—	—	20.64

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	89.4%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	10.6%	14.4%	—	—	6.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	63.4%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
A goal in each half	36.6%	40.2%	—	—	2.49

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1 goals	43.7%	42.1%	18.9%	2.23×	2.37
2-3 goals	43.5%	42.1%	37.2%	1.13×	2.37
4-6 goals	12.4%	16.9%	37.5%	0.45×	5.92
7+ goals	0.4%	1.8%	6.9%	0.27×	54.47

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score exactly 0	40.1%	37.3%	29.3%	1.27×	2.68
Napoli to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	30.9%	1.16×	2.78
Napoli to score exactly 2	16.7%	19.6%	19.4%	1.01×	5.11
Napoli to score 3+	6.5%	8.5%	20.9%	0.41×	11.71

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.6%	25.0%	1.42×	2.81
FC Porto to score exactly 0	36.7%	35.6%	20.4%	1.74×	2.81
FC Porto to score exactly 2	18.4%	18.8%	23.7%	0.79×	5.33
FC Porto to score 3+	8.1%	10.3%	31.4%	0.33×	9.70

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	52.2%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
FC Porto leading at HT	26.3%	24.9%	—	—	4.02
Napoli leading at HT	21.5%	20.9%	—	—	4.79

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto -1: 2	62.6%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
FC Porto -1: X	23.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
FC Porto -1: 1	14.0%	14.0%	—	—	7.15

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:1)	62.6%	61.4%	49.0%	1.25×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	23.4%	24.2%	19.6%	1.23×	4.13
FC Porto (0:1)	14.0%	13.7%	31.6%	0.43×	7.28

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:2)	86.0%	87.1%	68.4%	1.27×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.9%	7.7%	13.5%	0.57×	13.02
FC Porto (0:2)	4.0%	3.8%	18.4%	0.20×	26.63

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:3)	96.0%	96.6%	81.6%	1.18×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.1%	2.4%	8.9%	0.27×	42.06
FC Porto (0:3)	0.9%	2.4%	9.7%	0.24×	42.15

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:4)	99.1%	98.1%	90.3%	1.09×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	5.9%	0.21×	82.02
FC Porto (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	4.1%	0.30×	82.08

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (1:0)	67.4%	70.1%	66.3%	1.06×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	21.4%	21.7%	16.8%	1.29×	4.61
Napoli (1:0)	11.2%	12.7%	17.1%	0.74×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto (2:0)	88.8%	88.5%	82.9%	1.07×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.2%	6.4%	7.9%	0.81×	15.68
Napoli (2:0)	3.0%	2.3%	9.4%	0.24×	43.65

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.7%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Halves equal	29.9%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to concede	59.9%	60.7%	70.7%	0.86×	1.65
FC Porto clean sheet	40.1%	39.3%	29.3%	1.34×	2.55

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto clean sheet in 1st half	69.4%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
FC Porto to concede in 1st half	30.6%	30.1%	—	—	3.32

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto clean sheet in 2nd half	57.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
FC Porto to concede in 2nd half	42.2%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto over 2.5 corners	78.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
FC Porto under 6.5 corners	75.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
FC Porto under 5.5 corners	64.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
FC Porto over 3.5 corners	63.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
FC Porto under 4.5 corners	51.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
FC Porto over 4.5 corners	48.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
FC Porto under 3.5 corners	36.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
FC Porto over 5.5 corners	35.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
FC Porto over 6.5 corners	24.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
FC Porto under 2.5 corners	21.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto under 3.5 goals	98.1%	96.4%	83.9%	1.15×	1.04
FC Porto under 2.5 goals	91.9%	92.2%	68.6%	1.34×	1.08
FC Porto under 1.5 goals	73.5%	74.2%	45.2%	1.64×	1.35
FC Porto over 0.5 goals	63.3%	63.6%	79.6%	0.80×	1.57
FC Porto under 0.5 goals	36.7%	36.4%	20.4%	1.78×	2.75
FC Porto over 1.5 goals	26.5%	25.8%	54.8%	0.47×	3.88
FC Porto over 2.5 goals	8.1%	7.8%	31.4%	0.25×	12.88
FC Porto over 3.5 goals	1.9%	3.6%	16.1%	0.23×	27.57

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto under 1.5 in 1st half	93.0%	94.8%	—	—	1.06
FC Porto under 0.5 in 1st half	65.0%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
FC Porto over 0.5 in 1st half	35.0%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
FC Porto over 1.5 in 1st half	7.0%	5.2%	—	—	19.25

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto scores equally in both	46.3%	47.3%	—	—	2.11
FC Porto scores more in 2nd half	31.6%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
FC Porto scores more in 1st half	22.1%	21.2%	—	—	4.72

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (home no bet)	52.1%	51.4%	68.4%	0.75×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	47.9%	48.6%	31.6%	1.54×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto even goals	56.7%	55.3%	53.3%	1.04×	1.81
FC Porto odd goals	43.3%	44.7%	46.7%	0.96×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	45.0%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
HT 1-0	19.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 0-1	16.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	7.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-0	4.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.00
HT 0-2	3.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 2-1	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.18
Any other HT score	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.18
HT 1-2	1.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.26

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	21.7%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
FC Porto at HT / FC Porto at FT	20.4%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT	16.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.99
Draw at HT / FC Porto at FT	15.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.99
Draw at HT / Napoli at FT	14.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
FC Porto at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.60
Napoli at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.62
FC Porto at HT / Napoli at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.71
Napoli at HT / FC Porto at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.72

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto to score last	45.0%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
Napoli to score last	41.0%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	13.9%	9.7%	—	—	10.30

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	86.1%	91.0%	—	—	1.10
FC Porto to lead by 1 at any time	49.3%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Napoli to lead by 1 at any time	44.9%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	32.0%	29.8%	—	—	3.35
FC Porto to lead by 2 at any time	17.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.69
Napoli to lead by 2 at any time	14.5%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	8.5%	6.7%	—	—	14.86
FC Porto to lead by 3 at any time	4.8%	1.7%	—	—	60.09
Napoli to lead by 3 at any time	3.6%	1.6%	—	—	61.17

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto most corners	52.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Napoli most corners	37.0%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	11.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.7%	83.4%	81.4%	1.03×	1.20
1-4 goals	81.5%	83.4%	67.3%	1.24×	1.20
1-3 goals	73.3%	72.4%	51.0%	1.42×	1.38
1-2 goals	56.0%	59.1%	29.8%	1.98×	1.69
2-6 goals	55.9%	59.1%	74.5%	0.79×	1.69
2-5 goals	54.9%	53.2%	67.6%	0.79×	1.88
2-4 goals	51.7%	53.2%	53.6%	0.99×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.5%	43.6%	37.2%	1.17×	2.29
3-6 goals	29.7%	30.2%	58.7%	0.52×	3.31
3-5 goals	28.7%	30.2%	51.8%	0.58×	3.31
3-4 goals	25.5%	30.2%	37.8%	0.80×	3.31
4-6 goals	12.4%	14.8%	37.5%	0.40×	6.75
4-5 goals	11.4%	14.8%	30.6%	0.48×	6.75
5-6 goals	4.2%	2.6%	21.2%	0.12×	39.04
7+ goals	0.4%	2.6%	6.9%	0.37×	39.21

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Porto never behind	41.2%	48.4%	—	—	2.07
Napoli never behind	36.8%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.5%	50.9%	45.4%	1.12×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.5%	49.1%	54.6%	0.90×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	59.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	40.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.8%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.2%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.6%	95.4%	86.2%	1.11×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.5%	95.4%	72.2%	1.32×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	87.2%	87.6%	55.9%	1.57×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	86.1%	87.6%	94.9%	0.92×	1.14
Under 2.5 goals	69.9%	66.3%	34.7%	1.91×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	56.3%	58.6%	81.1%	0.72×	1.71
Under 1.5 goals	43.7%	41.4%	18.9%	2.19×	2.42
Over 2.5 goals	30.1%	33.7%	65.3%	0.52×	2.97
Under 0.5 goals	13.9%	12.4%	5.1%	2.43×	8.06
Over 3.5 goals	12.8%	12.4%	44.1%	0.28×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	4.5%	4.6%	27.8%	0.16×	21.84
Over 5.5 goals	1.4%	4.6%	13.8%	0.33×	21.90

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.6%	97.2%	92.6%	1.05×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.6%	97.2%	84.0%	1.16×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	95.1%	97.2%	66.8%	1.46×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	84.5%	81.1%	44.0%	1.84×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	59.3%	55.8%	22.4%	2.49×	1.79
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	40.7%	44.2%	77.6%	0.57×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	15.5%	18.9%	56.0%	0.34×	5.29
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	4.9%	2.8%	33.2%	0.08×	35.51
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.4%	2.8%	16.0%	0.18×	35.61
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.4%	2.8%	7.4%	0.38×	35.65

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	95.3%	96.2%	—	—	1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half	81.1%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	55.0%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	45.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half	18.9%	14.3%	—	—	7.01
Over 2.5 in 1st half	4.7%	3.8%	—	—	26.11

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	89.6%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.5%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.6%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.4%	31.3%	—	—	3.19
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	10.4%	14.4%	—	—	6.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to score in both halves	87.1%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
FC Porto not to score in both halves	84.7%	84.4%	—	—	1.18
FC Porto to score in both halves	15.3%	15.6%	—	—	6.43
Napoli to score in both halves	12.9%	14.6%	—	—	6.83

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	37.1%	39.9%	55.4%	0.72×	2.51
Only FC Porto scores	26.2%	26.0%	24.5%	1.06×	3.84
Only Napoli scores	22.8%	22.3%	15.6%	1.43×	4.49
Neither team scores	13.9%	11.0%	5.1%	2.16×	9.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	29.8%	24.9%	14.0%	1.77×	4.02
Exactly 2 goals	26.2%	24.9%	16.1%	1.55×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	17.3%	17.5%	21.4%	0.81×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	13.9%	12.1%	5.1%	2.38×	8.24
Exactly 4 goals	8.3%	7.6%	16.6%	0.46×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	3.2%	4.5%	14.3%	0.31×	22.39
6 or more goals	1.4%	4.5%	13.8%	0.32×	22.42

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	45.0%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
2 goals in 1st half	14.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.27
3+ goals in 1st half	4.7%	3.8%	—	—	26.11

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	37.1%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
No goals in 2nd half	32.4%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
2+ goals in 2nd half	30.5%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to win both halves	94.1%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
FC Porto not to win both halves	92.4%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
FC Porto to win both halves	7.6%	5.9%	—	—	16.97
Napoli to win both halves	5.9%	5.8%	—	—	17.10

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win neither half	56.7%	59.0%	—	—	1.69
FC Porto to win neither half	52.1%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
FC Porto to win either half	47.9%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Napoli to win either half	43.3%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to win to nil	77.2%	78.1%	84.4%	0.93×	1.28
FC Porto not to win to nil	73.8%	75.4%	75.5%	1.00×	1.33
FC Porto to win to nil	26.2%	24.7%	24.5%	1.01×	4.06
Napoli to win to nil	22.8%	21.9%	15.6%	1.41×	4.57

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	30.0%	27.6%	15.6%	1.78×	3.62
FC Porto by 1	23.4%	24.1%	19.6%	1.23×	4.15
Napoli by 1	21.4%	24.1%	16.8%	1.43×	4.15
FC Porto by 2	9.9%	7.2%	13.5%	0.53×	13.90
Napoli by 2	8.2%	7.2%	7.9%	0.91×	13.90
FC Porto by 3+	4.0%	2.7%	18.4%	0.15×	36.78
Napoli by 3+	3.0%	2.7%	9.4%	0.29×	36.81