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FC Tokyo v Kashima Antlers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
FC Tokyo win
38.4%
model 37.1%
Draw
23.2%
model 24.9%
Kashima Antlers win
38.4%
model 38.0%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.7%
  2. 0-1 9.0%
  3. 1-0 8.9%
  4. 1-2 8.4%
  5. 2-1 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.552.4% Under 2.547.6%
BTTS yes55.9% BTTS no44.1%
FC Tokyo 1+74.7% FC Tokyo 2+40.0%
Kashima Antlers 1+75.2% Kashima Antlers 2+40.7%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.40. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
86/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
100%
★ Best pick
3-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 44%
52.2% fair odds 1.91
moderate signal · 1995 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Kashima Antlers (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 82%
83.7% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Kashima Antlers carry the stronger rating, 1696 Elo against 1602.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Kashima Antlers have an estimated 38.4% win probability, against 38.4% for FC Tokyo and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.38 for FC Tokyo and 1.40 for Kashima Antlers.

Why FC Tokyo

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.38 to 1.40. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Kashima Antlers can win

Kashima Antlers carry the stronger rating, 1696 Elo against 1602. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Tokyo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Kashima Antlers, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Tokyo: 51% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Kashima Antlers: 59% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Kashima Antlers are the model's most likely outcome at 38.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 86/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.38–1.40 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.34–1.36 1-1 12% 51% 55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers to win 37.7% 36.4% 31.1% 1.17× 2.75
FC Tokyo to win 37.0% 36.4% 43.0% 0.85× 2.75
Draw 25.3% 27.9% 26.1% 1.07× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers & not both score 19.7% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
FC Tokyo & not both score 19.3% 18.0% 25.0% 0.72× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 18.8% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
FC Tokyo & both teams score 17.7% 18.0% 18.1% 0.99× 5.57
Kashima Antlers & both teams score 18.0% 18.0% 13.4% 1.34× 5.57
Draw & not both score 6.5% 8.3% 7.0% 1.18× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers & over 1.5 28.3% 26.1% 21.3% 1.23× 3.84
FC Tokyo & over 1.5 27.7% 26.1% 30.3% 0.86× 3.84
Kashima Antlers & under 3.5 26.7% 26.1% 23.4% 1.11× 3.84
FC Tokyo & under 3.5 26.3% 26.1% 33.1% 0.79× 3.84
Kashima Antlers & over 2.5 22.1% 21.6% 17.8% 1.21× 4.63
FC Tokyo & over 2.5 21.6% 21.6% 23.1% 0.93× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.8% 18.0% 19.2% 0.94× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 18.5% 18.0% 20.3% 0.89× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.5% 18.0% 20.3% 0.89× 5.56
FC Tokyo & under 2.5 15.4% 18.0% 20.0% 0.90× 5.56
Kashima Antlers & under 2.5 15.6% 18.0% 13.4% 1.34× 5.56
FC Tokyo & over 3.5 10.7% 12.8% 10.0% 1.28× 7.79
Kashima Antlers & over 3.5 11.0% 12.8% 7.8% 1.64× 7.79
FC Tokyo & under 1.5 9.3% 7.9% 12.8% 0.62× 12.63
Kashima Antlers & under 1.5 9.4% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 6.5% 7.9% 7.0% 1.13× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 6.8% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 6.8% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (1UP) 54.3% 52.6% — — 1.90
FC Tokyo (1UP) 53.7% 52.6% — — 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (2UP) 37.7% 37.5% — — 2.67
FC Tokyo (2UP) 37.0% 37.4% — — 2.67
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 35.4% 36.2% — — 2.77
Kashima Antlers to win 2nd half 33.7% 34.1% — — 2.93
FC Tokyo to win 2nd half 30.9% 34.1% — — 2.93
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers under 1.5 in 2nd half 80.4% 84.1% — — 1.19
Kashima Antlers over 0.5 in 2nd half 55.6% 54.3% — — 1.84
Kashima Antlers under 0.5 in 2nd half 44.4% 45.7% — — 2.19
Kashima Antlers over 1.5 in 2nd half 19.6% 15.9% — — 6.30
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo under 1.5 in 2nd half 82.2% 82.7% — — 1.21
FC Tokyo over 0.5 in 2nd half 53.4% 55.2% — — 1.81
FC Tokyo under 0.5 in 2nd half 46.6% 44.8% — — 2.23
FC Tokyo over 1.5 in 2nd half 17.8% 17.3% — — 5.77
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (+2.5) 94.1% 92.1% 93.8% 0.98× 1.09
Kashima Antlers (+1.5) 83.4% 82.6% 81.9% 1.01× 1.21
Kashima Antlers (+0.5) 63.0% 62.9% 57.0% 1.10× 1.59
FC Tokyo (+0.5) 62.3% 62.9% 68.9% 0.91× 1.59
Kashima Antlers (-0.5) 37.7% 37.1% 31.1% 1.19× 2.70
FC Tokyo (-0.5) 37.0% 37.1% 43.0% 0.86× 2.70
FC Tokyo (-1.5) 16.6% 17.4% 18.1% 0.96× 5.73
FC Tokyo (-2.5) 5.9% 7.9% 6.3% 1.26× 12.71
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers to concede 73.8% 76.7% 75.3% 1.02× 1.30
Kashima Antlers clean sheet 26.2% 23.3% 24.7% 0.94× 4.30
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers clean sheet in 1st half 56.2% 57.0% — — 1.76
Kashima Antlers to concede in 1st half 43.8% 43.0% — — 2.32
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers to concede in 2nd half 53.4% 54.8% — — 1.82
Kashima Antlers clean sheet in 2nd half 46.6% 45.2% — — 2.21
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers under 6.5 corners 84.7% 81.4% — — 1.23
Kashima Antlers under 5.5 corners 74.6% 71.6% — — 1.40
Kashima Antlers over 2.5 corners 74.1% 71.6% — — 1.40
Kashima Antlers under 4.5 corners 60.6% 61.8% — — 1.62
Kashima Antlers over 3.5 corners 56.5% 57.2% — — 1.75
Kashima Antlers under 3.5 corners 43.5% 42.8% — — 2.33
Kashima Antlers over 4.5 corners 39.4% 38.2% — — 2.62
Kashima Antlers under 2.5 corners 25.9% 28.4% — — 3.52
Kashima Antlers over 5.5 corners 25.4% 28.4% — — 3.52
Kashima Antlers over 6.5 corners 15.3% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers under 3.5 goals 95.1% 97.5% 95.9% 1.02× 1.03
Kashima Antlers under 2.5 goals 84.4% 81.5% 87.8% 0.93× 1.23
Kashima Antlers over 0.5 goals 74.2% 71.9% 68.1% 1.05× 1.39
Kashima Antlers under 1.5 goals 60.7% 63.2% 68.3% 0.93× 1.58
Kashima Antlers over 1.5 goals 39.3% 36.8% 31.7% 1.16× 2.72
Kashima Antlers under 0.5 goals 25.8% 28.1% 31.9% 0.88× 3.55
Kashima Antlers over 2.5 goals 15.6% 18.5% 12.2% 1.52× 5.40
Kashima Antlers over 3.5 goals 4.9% 2.5% 4.1% 0.62× 39.82
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers under 1.5 in 1st half 89.7% 89.5% — — 1.12
Kashima Antlers under 0.5 in 1st half 58.2% 62.1% — — 1.61
Kashima Antlers over 0.5 in 1st half 41.8% 37.9% — — 2.64
Kashima Antlers over 1.5 in 1st half 10.3% 10.5% — — 9.54
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers scores more in 2nd half 39.0% 37.5% — — 2.67
Kashima Antlers scores equally in both 38.5% 37.5% — — 2.67
Kashima Antlers scores more in 1st half 22.5% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo (away no bet) 59.4% 57.5% 62.2% 0.92× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 40.6% 42.5% 37.8% 1.13× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers even goals 53.3% 52.6% 54.2% 0.97× 1.90
Kashima Antlers odd goals 46.7% 47.4% 45.8% 1.04× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.6% 87.8% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 14.4% 12.2% — — 8.17
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 63.0% 57.6% — — 1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals 37.0% 42.4% — — 2.36
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 54.8% 51.0% — — 1.96
Kashima Antlers to score 2+ in a row 30.8% 29.0% — — 3.45
FC Tokyo to score 2+ in a row 30.3% 29.0% — — 3.45
Either team to score 3+ in a row 18.6% 16.2% — — 6.16
Kashima Antlers to score 3+ in a row 9.6% 5.6% — — 17.90
FC Tokyo to score 3+ in a row 9.3% 5.6% — — 17.92
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo corners (+3.5) 91.7% 89.6% — — 1.12
FC Tokyo corners (+2.5) 86.5% 84.5% — — 1.18
FC Tokyo corners (+1.5) 79.2% 74.8% — — 1.34
Kashima Antlers corners (+3.5) 72.9% 70.7% — — 1.41
Kashima Antlers corners (+2.5) 63.0% 61.8% — — 1.62
Kashima Antlers corners (+1.5) 52.0% 52.4% — — 1.91
FC Tokyo corners (-1.5) 48.0% 47.6% — — 2.10
FC Tokyo corners (-2.5) 37.0% 38.2% — — 2.62
FC Tokyo corners (-3.5) 27.1% 29.3% — — 3.42
Kashima Antlers corners (-1.5) 20.8% 25.2% — — 3.97
Kashima Antlers corners (-2.5) 13.5% 15.5% — — 6.45
Kashima Antlers corners (-3.5) 8.3% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 40.1% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 31.1% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 28.8% 31.2% — — 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 79.0% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 11.5 corners 71.2% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 70.8% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 10.5 corners 61.8% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 59.9% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 51.2% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 48.8% 46.9% — — 2.13
Under 8.5 corners 40.1% 42.1% — — 2.38
Over 10.5 corners 38.2% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 29.2% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 28.8% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 21.0% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.0% 11.5% 13.4% 0.85× 8.72
0-1 9.4% 7.4% 10.0% 0.74× 13.51
1-0 9.3% 7.4% 12.8% 0.58× 13.51
0-0 6.5% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
1-2 8.3% 7.4% 7.2% 1.03× 13.51
2-1 8.2% 7.4% 9.8% 0.75× 13.51
0-2 6.2% 7.4% 3.6% 2.06× 13.51
2-0 6.1% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
2-2 5.6% 7.4% 5.2% 1.44× 13.51
0-3 2.8% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
0-4 0.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.31
1-3 3.8% 1.7% 2.3% 0.73× 58.30
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.20× 58.31
2-3 2.5% 1.7% 1.9% 0.91× 58.31
2-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 58.31
3-0 2.7% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.30
3-1 3.7% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 58.30
3-2 2.5% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.31
3-3 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.20× 58.31
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.6% 2.74× 58.32
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 1.3% 1.37× 58.31
4-1 1.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 58.31
4-2 0.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.10× 58.31
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 5.49× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.49× 58.32
Any other score 2.4% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (2nd half DNB) 52.2% 53.5% — — 1.87
FC Tokyo (2nd half DNB) 47.8% 46.5% — — 2.15
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo leading at HT (DNB) 52.0% 56.3% — — 1.78
Kashima Antlers leading at HT (DNB) 48.0% 43.7% — — 2.29
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo or Kashima Antlers (12) 74.7% 72.1% 73.9% 0.98× 1.39
Kashima Antlers or draw (X2) 63.0% 63.6% 57.0% 1.12× 1.57
FC Tokyo or draw (1X) 62.3% 63.6% 68.9% 0.92× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo or draw at HT 72.9% 74.8% — — 1.34
Kashima Antlers or draw at HT 70.7% 74.7% — — 1.34
FC Tokyo or Kashima Antlers at HT 56.4% 57.6% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers or draw (1UP) 63.0% 71.6% — — 1.40
FC Tokyo or draw (1UP) 62.3% 71.6% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers or draw in 2nd half 69.1% 65.9% — — 1.52
FC Tokyo or draw in 2nd half 66.3% 65.9% — — 1.52
FC Tokyo or Kashima Antlers in 2nd half 64.6% 63.8% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.9% 61.4% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 36.1% 38.6% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (DNB) 50.4% 50.8% 42.0% 1.21× 1.97
FC Tokyo (DNB) 49.6% 49.2% 58.0% 0.85× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers to score first 47.0% 46.0% — — 2.18
FC Tokyo to score first 46.5% 46.0% — — 2.18
No goal scored 6.5% 7.4% — — 13.50
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 54.5% 51.3% 50.5% 1.02× 1.95
Not both teams to score 45.5% 48.7% 49.5% 0.98× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.5% 41.6% 37.2% 1.12× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 37.5% 38.4% 40.2% 0.96× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.0% 12.4% 13.4% 0.92× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.0% 8.3% 9.5% 0.87× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 84.8% 82.6% 86.3% 0.96× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 15.2% 17.4% 13.8% 1.26× 5.76
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.4% 73.6% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.6% 26.4% — — 3.78
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 57.5% 59.9% — — 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 24.2% 21.0% — — 4.76
Both score 1st half only 12.8% 10.8% — — 9.27
Both score in both halves 5.5% 6.8% — — 14.76
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.7% 83.1% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 18.3% 16.9% — — 5.92
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 53.3% 53.0% — — 1.89
A half without a goal 46.7% 47.0% — — 2.13
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.3% 47.2% 47.2% 1.00× 2.12
4-6 goals 26.5% 26.6% 20.9% 1.27× 3.76
0-1 goals 25.2% 26.6% 29.5% 0.90× 3.76
7+ goals 2.0% 1.8% 2.7% 0.69× 54.33
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers to score exactly 1 35.0% 33.8% 36.6% 0.93× 2.96
Kashima Antlers to score exactly 0 25.8% 27.4% 31.9% 0.86× 3.65
Kashima Antlers to score exactly 2 23.7% 22.3% 19.7% 1.13× 4.49
Kashima Antlers to score 3+ 15.6% 19.5% 12.2% 1.60× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo to score exactly 1 35.1% 35.5% 36.3% 0.98× 2.81
FC Tokyo to score exactly 0 26.2% 26.5% 24.7% 1.08× 3.77
FC Tokyo to score exactly 2 23.5% 23.3% 24.5% 0.95× 4.29
FC Tokyo to score 3+ 15.2% 18.7% 14.8% 1.26× 5.34
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.6% 42.4% — — 2.36
FC Tokyo leading at HT 29.3% 25.3% — — 3.95
Kashima Antlers leading at HT 27.1% 25.2% — — 3.96
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers -1: 1 62.3% 62.5% — — 1.60
Kashima Antlers -1: X 20.7% 23.5% — — 4.26
Kashima Antlers -1: 2 17.0% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (0:1) 63.0% 61.4% 57.0% 1.08× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 20.4% 24.2% 25.0% 0.97× 4.13
FC Tokyo (0:1) 16.6% 17.8% 18.1% 0.98× 5.61
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (0:2) 83.4% 83.0% 81.9% 1.01× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 10.7% 11.0% 12.0% 0.91× 9.11
FC Tokyo (0:2) 5.9% 7.7% 6.3% 1.23× 13.06
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (0:3) 94.1% 92.7% 93.8% 0.99× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.2% 2.4% 4.2% 0.56× 42.04
FC Tokyo (0:3) 1.7% 2.4% 2.2% 1.08× 42.15
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (0:4) 98.3% 98.1% 97.8% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 0.87× 82.03
FC Tokyo (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 0.9% 1.30× 82.13
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo (1:0) 62.3% 65.3% 68.9% 0.95× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 20.7% 21.7% 19.4% 1.12× 4.61
Kashima Antlers (1:0) 17.0% 17.1% 11.9% 1.44× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo (2:0) 83.0% 84.6% 88.1% 0.96× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.9% 10.3% 6.1% 1.68× 9.74
Kashima Antlers (2:0) 6.1% 6.4% 5.9% 1.07× 15.69
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.2% 48.7% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.2% 26.2% — — 3.82
Halves equal 24.7% 24.4% — — 4.10
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo to concede 74.2% 73.1% 68.1% 1.07× 1.37
FC Tokyo clean sheet 25.8% 26.9% 31.9% 0.84× 3.72
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo clean sheet in 1st half 58.2% 62.1% — — 1.61
FC Tokyo to concede in 1st half 41.8% 37.9% — — 2.64
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo to concede in 2nd half 55.6% 54.5% — — 1.83
FC Tokyo clean sheet in 2nd half 44.4% 45.5% — — 2.20
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo over 2.5 corners 87.2% 86.2% — — 1.16
FC Tokyo over 3.5 corners 75.2% 76.5% — — 1.31
FC Tokyo under 6.5 corners 67.0% 66.7% — — 1.50
FC Tokyo over 4.5 corners 60.8% 62.3% — — 1.61
FC Tokyo under 5.5 corners 53.8% 52.6% — — 1.90
FC Tokyo over 5.5 corners 46.2% 47.4% — — 2.11
FC Tokyo under 4.5 corners 39.2% 37.7% — — 2.65
FC Tokyo over 6.5 corners 33.0% 33.3% — — 3.01
FC Tokyo under 3.5 corners 24.8% 23.5% — — 4.26
FC Tokyo under 2.5 corners 12.8% 13.8% — — 7.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo under 3.5 goals 95.3% 96.4% 94.8% 1.02× 1.04
FC Tokyo under 2.5 goals 84.8% 82.2% 85.2% 0.97× 1.22
FC Tokyo over 0.5 goals 73.8% 74.3% 75.3% 0.99× 1.35
FC Tokyo under 1.5 goals 61.2% 63.6% 60.8% 1.05× 1.57
FC Tokyo over 1.5 goals 38.8% 36.4% 39.2% 0.93× 2.75
FC Tokyo under 0.5 goals 26.2% 25.7% 24.7% 1.04× 3.88
FC Tokyo over 2.5 goals 15.2% 17.8% 14.8% 1.20× 5.63
FC Tokyo over 3.5 goals 4.7% 3.6% 5.2% 0.71× 27.46
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo under 1.5 in 1st half 88.6% 90.2% — — 1.11
FC Tokyo under 0.5 in 1st half 56.2% 56.8% — — 1.76
FC Tokyo over 0.5 in 1st half 43.8% 43.2% — — 2.32
FC Tokyo over 1.5 in 1st half 11.4% 9.8% — — 10.21
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo scores equally in both 39.0% 37.8% — — 2.64
FC Tokyo scores more in 2nd half 36.2% 37.8% — — 2.65
FC Tokyo scores more in 1st half 24.8% 21.2% — — 4.72
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers (home no bet) 59.8% 56.5% 54.4% 1.04× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 40.2% 43.5% 45.6% 0.95× 2.30
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo even goals 53.4% 50.7% 52.7% 0.96× 1.97
FC Tokyo odd goals 46.6% 49.3% 47.3% 1.04× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 32.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
HT 1-0 18.9% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 0-1 17.8% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-1 10.2% 11.0% — — 9.13
HT 2-0 5.4% 6.9% — — 14.49
HT 0-2 4.8% 2.4% — — 41.90
Any other HT score 3.8% 2.4% — — 41.96
HT 2-1 2.9% 2.4% — — 42.02
HT 1-2 2.8% 2.4% — — 42.03
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.4% — — 42.16
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo at HT / FC Tokyo at FT 21.3% 21.7% — — 4.62
Kashima Antlers at HT / Kashima Antlers at FT 20.3% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.2% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Kashima Antlers at FT 14.8% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / FC Tokyo at FT 13.6% 12.7% — — 7.90
FC Tokyo at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.1% — — 16.49
Kashima Antlers at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% — — 28.80
FC Tokyo at HT / Kashima Antlers at FT 2.6% 3.5% — — 28.88
Kashima Antlers at HT / FC Tokyo at FT 2.1% 3.5% — — 28.89
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers to score last 47.0% 46.5% — — 2.15
FC Tokyo to score last 46.5% 46.5% — — 2.15
No goal scored 6.5% 7.4% — — 13.50
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.5% 92.7% — — 1.08
Kashima Antlers to lead by 1 at any time 54.3% 50.8% — — 1.97
FC Tokyo to lead by 1 at any time 53.7% 50.8% — — 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 45.4% 44.3% — — 2.26
Kashima Antlers to lead by 2 at any time 23.0% 19.6% — — 5.11
FC Tokyo to lead by 2 at any time 22.6% 19.6% — — 5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.5% 14.9% — — 6.73
Kashima Antlers to lead by 3 at any time 7.9% 6.7% — — 14.94
FC Tokyo to lead by 3 at any time 7.6% 6.7% — — 14.95
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo most corners 59.4% 55.7% — — 1.80
Kashima Antlers most corners 29.9% 31.1% — — 3.22
Corners level 10.7% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.9% 87.4% 87.5% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.9% 78.7% 81.7% 0.96× 1.27
2-6 goals 72.7% 72.4% 68.0% 1.06× 1.38
2-5 goals 69.1% 68.8% 65.0% 1.06× 1.45
1-3 goals 65.0% 68.8% 69.7% 0.99× 1.45
2-4 goals 61.1% 63.3% 59.2% 1.07× 1.58
3-6 goals 48.5% 48.5% 44.1% 1.10× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.3% 48.5% 47.2% 1.03× 2.06
3-5 goals 44.9% 43.6% 41.1% 1.06× 2.29
1-2 goals 43.0% 43.6% 46.6% 0.94× 2.29
3-4 goals 36.9% 39.2% 35.3% 1.11× 2.55
4-6 goals 26.5% 30.2% 20.9% 1.44× 3.31
4-5 goals 22.9% 24.5% 18.0% 1.36× 4.09
5-6 goals 11.6% 14.8% 8.9% 1.66× 6.76
7+ goals 2.0% 2.6% 2.7% 0.96× 39.16
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers never behind 39.8% 44.2% — — 2.26
FC Tokyo never behind 39.2% 44.2% — — 2.26
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.7% 50.9% 46.7% 1.09× 1.96
Odd number of goals 50.3% 49.1% 53.3% 0.92× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.2% 57.5% — — 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.8% 42.5% — — 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.9% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.1% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.4% 92.3% 94.4% 0.98× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.5% 92.3% 93.0% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 86.4% 87.6% 88.6% 0.99× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 74.8% 72.5% 70.5% 1.03× 1.38
Under 3.5 goals 71.5% 72.5% 76.6% 0.95× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 50.5% 52.5% 46.6% 1.13× 1.90
Under 2.5 goals 49.5% 47.5% 53.4% 0.89× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 28.5% 27.5% 23.4% 1.17× 3.63
Under 1.5 goals 25.2% 27.5% 29.5% 0.93× 3.64
Over 4.5 goals 13.6% 12.4% 11.4% 1.09× 8.05
Under 0.5 goals 6.5% 7.7% 7.0% 1.10× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 5.6% 7.7% 5.6% 1.37× 12.96
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.9% 97.2% 97.3% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.9% 92.4% 94.0% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 84.0% 81.1% 87.0% 0.93× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 66.7% 67.4% 61.2% 1.10× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 63.4% 61.9% 69.5% 0.89× 1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 36.6% 38.1% 30.5% 1.25× 2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 33.3% 32.6% 38.8% 0.84× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 16.0% 18.9% 13.0% 1.46× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.1% 7.6% 6.0% 1.27× 13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.1% 2.8% 2.7% 1.03× 35.61
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.7% 89.1% — — 1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half 69.3% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half 67.4% 68.5% — — 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 32.6% 31.5% — — 3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half 30.7% 31.4% — — 3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.3% 10.9% — — 9.17
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.4% 79.7% — — 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 78.9% 79.7% — — 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 53.3% 53.3% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 46.7% 46.7% — — 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 21.1% 20.3% — — 4.93
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.6% 20.3% — — 4.94
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers not to score in both halves 76.7% 78.5% — — 1.27
FC Tokyo not to score in both halves 76.6% 78.5% — — 1.27
FC Tokyo to score in both halves 23.4% 21.5% — — 4.65
Kashima Antlers to score in both halves 23.3% 21.5% — — 4.65
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 54.5% 53.9% 50.5% 1.07× 1.86
Only Kashima Antlers scores 19.7% 16.0% 17.8% 0.90× 6.23
Only FC Tokyo scores 19.3% 16.0% 25.0% 0.64× 6.23
Neither team scores 6.5% 7.1% 7.0% 1.01× 14.04
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.2% 22.6% 24.1% 0.94× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.0% 22.6% 23.3% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 18.7% 17.5% 22.7% 0.77× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 14.9% 12.1% 12.2% 1.00× 8.24
Exactly 5 goals 8.0% 7.6% 5.9% 1.28× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 6.5% 7.6% 7.0% 1.08× 13.15
6 or more goals 5.6% 7.6% 5.6% 1.35× 13.15
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.6% 37.4% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 32.6% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 20.4% 21.4% — — 4.67
3+ goals in 1st half 10.3% 10.8% — — 9.25
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 46.7% 44.7% — — 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 32.8% 33.7% — — 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 20.6% 22.6% — — 4.43
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo not to win both halves 91.0% 94.1% — — 1.06
Kashima Antlers not to win both halves 90.9% 94.1% — — 1.06
Kashima Antlers to win both halves 9.1% 5.9% — — 16.94
FC Tokyo to win both halves 9.0% 5.9% — — 16.94
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kashima Antlers to win either half 51.7% 54.3% — — 1.84
FC Tokyo to win either half 51.2% 54.2% — — 1.84
FC Tokyo to win neither half 48.8% 45.8% — — 2.19
Kashima Antlers to win neither half 48.3% 45.8% — — 2.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Tokyo not to win to nil 80.7% 83.1% 75.0% 1.11× 1.20
Kashima Antlers not to win to nil 80.3% 83.1% 82.2% 1.01× 1.20
Kashima Antlers to win to nil 19.7% 16.9% 17.8% 0.95× 5.91
FC Tokyo to win to nil 19.3% 16.9% 25.0% 0.68× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.3% 27.9% 26.1% 1.07× 3.59
Kashima Antlers by 1 20.7% 24.1% 19.4% 1.24× 4.15
FC Tokyo by 1 20.4% 24.1% 25.0% 0.96× 4.15
Kashima Antlers by 2 10.9% 11.7% 6.1% 1.93× 8.51
FC Tokyo by 2 10.7% 11.7% 12.0% 0.98× 8.51
Kashima Antlers by 3+ 6.1% 7.2% 5.9% 1.21× 13.91
FC Tokyo by 3+ 5.9% 7.2% 6.3% 1.15× 13.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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