FC Utrecht v PEC Zwolle — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 October 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627
Eredivisie
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (2,277 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.9%
- 2-1 9.9%
- 2-0 9.6%
- 1-0 9.1%
- 0-0 6.8%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 55.1% | Under 2.5 | 44.9% |
| BTTS yes | 55.5% | BTTS no | 44.5% |
| FC Utrecht 1+ | 84.4% | FC Utrecht 2+ | 55.4% |
| PEC Zwolle 1+ | 64.3% | PEC Zwolle 2+ | 27.5% |
Expected goals 1.86 – 1.03. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- FC Utrecht carry the stronger rating, 1574 Elo against 1435.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
FC Utrecht have an estimated 58.4% win probability, against 22.9% for the draw and 18.7% for PEC Zwolle. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.86 for FC Utrecht and 1.03 for PEC Zwolle.
Why FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht carry the stronger rating, 1574 Elo against 1435.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why PEC Zwolle can win
Nothing in the data singles out PEC Zwolle.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for FC Utrecht, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for PEC Zwolle, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
FC Utrecht: 41% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 21.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. PEC Zwolle: 40% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 20.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
FC Utrecht are the model's most likely outcome at 58.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 2.15–1.13 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 61% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.