FC Volendam v De Graafschap — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 30 October 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627
NED-Eerste Divisie
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (1,523 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-1 8.9%
- 3-1 7.2%
- 1-1 6.9%
- 2-2 6.3%
- 2-0 6.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 74.3% | Under 2.5 | 25.7% |
| BTTS yes | 69.1% | BTTS no | 30.9% |
| FC Volendam 1+ | 91.3% | FC Volendam 2+ | 70.2% |
| De Graafschap 1+ | 76.0% | De Graafschap 2+ | 41.8% |
Expected goals 2.45 – 1.43. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out FC Volendam.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
FC Volendam have an estimated 59.1% win probability, against 22.5% for De Graafschap and 18.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.45 for FC Volendam and 1.43 for De Graafschap.
Why FC Volendam
Nothing in the data singles out FC Volendam.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 18.4%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.
Why De Graafschap can win
Nothing in the data singles out De Graafschap.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for FC Volendam, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for De Graafschap, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
FC Volendam: 52% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. De Graafschap: 57% possession, 18.2 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
FC Volendam are the model's most likely outcome at 59.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 8.9%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 2.71–1.54 | 2-1 8% | 80% | 73% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.