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Fenerbahce v Alanyaspor — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 18 October 2026 · TUR-Super Lig · 2627

TUR-Super Lig results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Fenerbahce win
74.2%
model 73.9%
Draw
18.5%
model 17.0%
Alanyaspor win
7.4%
model 9.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (637 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 10.9%
  2. 3-0 9.4%
  3. 2-1 9.2%
  4. 1-1 7.9%
  5. 3-1 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.566.2% Under 2.533.8%
BTTS yes53.2% BTTS no46.8%
Fenerbahce 1+92.4% Fenerbahce 2+72.7%
Alanyaspor 1+56.7% Alanyaspor 2+20.5%

Expected goals 2.57 – 0.84. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
76/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Fenerbahce carry the stronger rating, 1760 Elo against 1465.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Fenerbahce have an estimated 74.2% win probability, against 18.5% for the draw and 7.4% for Alanyaspor. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.57 for Fenerbahce and 0.84 for Alanyaspor.

Why Fenerbahce

Fenerbahce carry the stronger rating, 1760 Elo against 1465. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.5%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Alanyaspor can win

Nothing in the data singles out Alanyaspor.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Fenerbahce, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Alanyaspor, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Fenerbahce: 59% possession, 20.8 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Alanyaspor: 43% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Fenerbahce are the model's most likely outcome at 74.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.9%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 2.40–0.97 2-0 10% 66% 58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to win 68.0% 65.1% 45.4% 1.43× 1.54
Draw 19.4% 19.4% 26.0% 0.74× 5.17
Alanyaspor to win 12.6% 13.3% 28.7% 0.46× 7.52
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce & both teams score 34.6% 29.7% 23.2% 1.28× 3.36
Fenerbahce & not both score 33.4% 29.7% 22.3% 1.33× 3.36
Draw & both teams score 15.0% 17.9% 18.2% 0.98× 5.58
Alanyaspor & both teams score 7.9% 8.4% 14.5% 0.58× 11.93
Alanyaspor & not both score 4.7% 4.9% 14.3% 0.34× 20.54
Draw & not both score 4.4% 4.9% 8.0% 0.61× 20.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce & over 1.5 60.7% 54.6% 36.2% 1.51× 1.83
Fenerbahce & over 2.5 50.9% 48.7% 30.3% 1.61× 2.05
Fenerbahce & under 3.5 34.7% 30.9% 29.4% 1.05× 3.24
Fenerbahce & over 3.5 33.3% 30.9% 16.1% 1.91× 3.24
Fenerbahce & under 2.5 17.1% 18.0% 15.2% 1.18× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 15.0% 18.0% 18.2% 0.99× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 13.3% 12.9% 20.4% 0.63× 7.77
Draw & under 3.5 13.3% 12.9% 20.4% 0.63× 7.77
Alanyaspor & over 1.5 10.2% 12.9% 22.3% 0.58× 7.77
Alanyaspor & over 2.5 8.6% 7.9% 18.0% 0.44× 12.70
Fenerbahce & under 1.5 7.3% 7.9% 9.3% 0.85× 12.70
Alanyaspor & under 3.5 8.4% 7.9% 19.5% 0.40× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 6.1% 7.9% 5.8% 1.36× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 6.1% 7.9% 5.8% 1.36× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 4.4% 4.8% 8.0% 0.60× 20.94
Alanyaspor & under 2.5 4.0% 4.8% 10.8% 0.44× 20.94
Alanyaspor & over 3.5 4.2% 4.8% 9.3% 0.51× 20.94
Alanyaspor & under 1.5 2.4% 4.8% 6.5% 0.73× 20.95
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (1UP) 79.5% 79.1% 1.26
Alanyaspor (1UP) 32.0% 32.7% 3.06
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (2UP) 68.0% 68.9% 1.45
Alanyaspor (2UP) 12.6% 13.4% 7.48
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to win 2nd half 55.8% 59.4% 1.68
2nd half drawn 28.6% 26.4% 3.78
Alanyaspor to win 2nd half 15.6% 18.9% 5.30
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (+0.5) 87.4% 88.5% 71.3% 1.24× 1.13
Alanyaspor (+2.5) 73.7% 73.7% 90.1% 0.82× 1.36
Fenerbahce (-0.5) 68.0% 68.7% 45.4% 1.51× 1.46
Alanyaspor (+1.5) 53.5% 52.3% 78.6% 0.67× 1.91
Fenerbahce (-1.5) 46.5% 47.7% 21.5% 2.22× 2.10
Alanyaspor (+0.5) 32.0% 31.3% 54.6% 0.57× 3.20
Fenerbahce (-2.5) 26.3% 26.3% 9.9% 2.65× 3.81
Alanyaspor (-0.5) 12.6% 11.5% 28.7% 0.40× 8.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to concede 90.9% 91.7% 77.8% 1.18× 1.09
Alanyaspor clean sheet 9.1% 8.3% 22.2% 0.37× 12.08
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to concede in 1st half 64.4% 65.0% 1.54
Alanyaspor clean sheet in 1st half 35.6% 35.0% 2.86
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 6.5 corners 91.8% 90.0% 1.11
Alanyaspor under 5.5 corners 84.7% 81.4% 1.23
Alanyaspor under 4.5 corners 73.4% 71.6% 1.40
Alanyaspor over 2.5 corners 61.9% 61.8% 1.62
Alanyaspor under 3.5 corners 57.5% 57.1% 1.75
Alanyaspor over 3.5 corners 42.5% 42.9% 2.33
Alanyaspor under 2.5 corners 38.1% 38.2% 2.62
Alanyaspor over 4.5 corners 26.6% 28.4% 3.52
Alanyaspor over 5.5 corners 15.3% 18.6% 5.38
Alanyaspor over 6.5 corners 8.2% 10.0% 9.98
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 3.5 goals 98.3% 97.5% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Alanyaspor under 2.5 goals 92.4% 92.3% 86.2% 1.07× 1.08
Alanyaspor under 1.5 goals 74.5% 72.0% 65.2% 1.10× 1.39
Alanyaspor over 0.5 goals 62.2% 63.0% 69.8% 0.90× 1.59
Alanyaspor under 0.5 goals 37.8% 37.0% 30.2% 1.23× 2.70
Alanyaspor over 1.5 goals 25.5% 28.0% 34.8% 0.81× 3.57
Alanyaspor over 2.5 goals 7.6% 7.7% 13.8% 0.56× 13.04
Alanyaspor over 3.5 goals 1.7% 2.5% 4.6% 0.53× 40.79
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 1.5 in 1st half 94.1% 94.2% 1.06
Alanyaspor under 0.5 in 1st half 67.7% 68.6% 1.46
Alanyaspor over 0.5 in 1st half 32.3% 31.4% 3.18
Alanyaspor over 1.5 in 1st half 5.9% 5.8% 17.36
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (away no bet) 77.8% 73.7% 63.6% 1.16× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 22.2% 26.3% 36.4% 0.72× 3.80
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor even goals 57.1% 56.9% 54.4% 1.04× 1.76
Alanyaspor odd goals 42.9% 43.1% 45.6% 0.95× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 75.8% 81.9% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 24.2% 18.1% 5.53
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 76.0% 72.5% 1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals 24.0% 27.5% 3.64
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 70.3% 71.7% 1.39
Fenerbahce to score 2+ in a row 61.7% 59.9% 1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row 35.3% 36.4% 2.75
Fenerbahce to score 3+ in a row 32.6% 29.1% 3.44
Alanyaspor to score 2+ in a row 16.0% 16.3% 6.15
Alanyaspor to score 3+ in a row 3.1% 2.6% 38.71
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce corners (+3.5) 95.4% 95.8% 1.04
Fenerbahce corners (+2.5) 91.8% 89.5% 1.12
Fenerbahce corners (+1.5) 86.4% 84.5% 1.18
Alanyaspor corners (+3.5) 64.3% 61.9% 1.62
Fenerbahce corners (-1.5) 58.1% 57.1% 1.75
Alanyaspor corners (+2.5) 53.4% 52.5% 1.91
Fenerbahce corners (-2.5) 46.6% 47.5% 2.11
Alanyaspor corners (+1.5) 41.9% 42.9% 2.33
Fenerbahce corners (-3.5) 35.7% 38.1% 2.62
Alanyaspor corners (-1.5) 13.6% 15.5% 6.45
Alanyaspor corners (-2.5) 8.2% 10.5% 9.57
Alanyaspor corners (-3.5) 4.6% 4.2% 23.61
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 46.8% 41.8% 2.39
9-11 corners 29.2% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 23.9% 25.6% 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 82.9% 80.7% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 76.1% 76.5% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 67.7% 67.7% 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 64.4% 63.3% 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 57.8% 57.9% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 53.2% 53.2% 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 46.8% 46.8% 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 42.2% 42.1% 2.38
Under 7.5 corners 35.6% 36.7% 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 32.3% 32.3% 3.10
Over 11.5 corners 23.9% 23.5% 4.26
Over 12.5 corners 17.1% 19.3% 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 8.9% 7.4% 12.6% 0.59× 13.48
2-0 9.9% 7.4% 6.1% 1.22× 13.48
2-1 9.6% 7.4% 9.9% 0.75× 13.48
Any other score 9.9% 7.4% 4.1% 1.79× 13.48
1-0 7.3% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.48
3-0 7.9% 7.4% 4.6% 1.62× 13.48
3-1 7.7% 7.4% 4.7% 1.57× 13.48
2-2 4.7% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.46
4-0 4.7% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.46
0-0 4.4% 1.7% 8.0% 0.21× 58.46
0-1 2.4% 1.7% 6.5% 0.26× 58.48
0-2 1.6% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.48
0-3 0.5% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.49
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.2% 1.44× 58.49
1-2 3.9% 1.7% 6.7% 0.26× 58.47
1-3 1.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0.64× 58.48
1-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.65× 58.49
2-3 1.5% 1.7% 2.7% 0.64× 58.48
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.31× 58.49
3-2 3.7% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.47
3-3 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.28× 58.48
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 3.85× 58.49
4-1 4.6% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.46
4-2 2.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.45× 58.48
4-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.7% 2.31× 58.49
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 11.56× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce leading at HT (DNB) 79.0% 78.1% 1.28
Alanyaspor leading at HT (DNB) 21.0% 21.9% 4.57
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce or draw (1X) 87.4% 86.7% 71.3% 1.22× 1.15
Fenerbahce or Alanyaspor (12) 80.6% 80.6% 74.0% 1.09× 1.24
Alanyaspor or draw (X2) 32.0% 34.9% 54.6% 0.64× 2.86
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce or draw at HT 86.4% 88.0% 1.14
Fenerbahce or Alanyaspor at HT 64.8% 62.1% 1.61
Alanyaspor or draw at HT 48.8% 52.5% 1.91
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce or draw (1UP) 87.4% 91.8% 1.09
Alanyaspor or draw (1UP) 32.0% 38.7% 2.58
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce or draw in 2nd half 84.4% 81.1% 1.23
Fenerbahce or Alanyaspor in 2nd half 71.4% 73.6% 1.36
Alanyaspor or draw in 2nd half 44.2% 40.6% 2.46
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 47.4% 50.1% 2.00
A half drawn 52.6% 49.9% 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (DNB) 84.3% 80.6% 61.3% 1.32× 1.24
Alanyaspor (DNB) 15.7% 19.4% 38.7% 0.50× 5.16
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to score first 68.1% 69.4% 1.44
Alanyaspor to score first 27.6% 28.2% 3.54
No goal scored 4.4% 4.3% 23.23
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 57.5% 54.9% 55.6% 0.99× 1.82
Not both teams to score 42.5% 45.1% 44.4% 1.02× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 48.6% 44.3% 43.2% 1.03× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 25.5% 33.5% 33.7% 0.99× 2.98
Not both score & over 2.5 16.9% 21.7% 10.8% 2.01× 4.61
Both score & under 2.5 8.9% 8.4% 12.6% 0.67× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 82.4% 83.1% 83.4% 1.00× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 17.6% 16.9% 16.6% 1.02× 5.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 66.7% 67.6% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 33.3% 32.4% 3.08
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 52.6% 55.9% 1.79
Both score 2nd half only 26.5% 26.6% 3.76
Both score 1st half only 14.1% 10.8% 9.30
Both score in both halves 6.9% 6.8% 14.80
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 79.1% 81.5% 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 20.9% 18.5% 5.40
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 65.6% 66.6% 1.50
A half without a goal 34.4% 33.4% 3.00
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 42.4% 42.1% 45.7% 0.92× 2.38
4-6 goals 38.1% 35.1% 28.4% 1.23× 2.85
0-1 goals 14.0% 16.9% 23.5% 0.72× 5.90
7+ goals 5.6% 7.6% 2.7% 2.84× 13.23
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to score exactly 0 37.8% 36.0% 30.2% 1.19× 2.78
Alanyaspor to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 35.2% 1.02× 2.78
Alanyaspor to score exactly 2 17.9% 19.6% 21.2% 0.92× 5.11
Alanyaspor to score 3+ 7.6% 8.5% 13.8% 0.61× 11.83
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to score 3+ 43.1% 34.9% 22.2% 1.57× 2.86
Fenerbahce to score exactly 2 26.1% 26.5% 23.8% 1.11× 3.77
Fenerbahce to score exactly 1 21.7% 23.2% 32.1% 0.72× 4.30
Fenerbahce to score exactly 0 9.1% 10.3% 22.2% 0.46× 9.71
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce leading at HT 51.2% 47.5% 2.10
Draw at HT 35.2% 37.9% 2.64
Alanyaspor leading at HT 13.6% 12.0% 8.36
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce -1: 1 46.5% 46.9% 2.13
Fenerbahce -1: 2 32.0% 30.1% 3.33
Fenerbahce -1: X 21.5% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (0:1) 46.5% 45.9% 21.5% 2.14× 2.18
Alanyaspor (0:1) 32.0% 30.0% 54.6% 0.55× 3.33
Draw (0:1) 21.5% 24.3% 24.1% 1.01× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (0:2) 53.5% 58.5% 78.6% 0.74× 1.71
Fenerbahce (0:2) 26.3% 23.7% 9.9% 2.39× 4.22
Draw (0:2) 20.2% 20.3% 11.7% 1.74× 4.93
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (0:3) 73.7% 78.0% 90.1% 0.87× 1.28
Draw (0:3) 13.8% 10.0% 6.5% 1.54× 9.97
Fenerbahce (0:3) 12.6% 10.0% 3.6% 2.82× 9.99
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (0:4) 87.4% 92.0% 96.5% 0.95× 1.09
Draw (0:4) 7.5% 4.7% 2.5% 1.85× 21.47
Fenerbahce (0:4) 5.1% 4.6% 1.2% 3.90× 21.68
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (1:0) 87.4% 86.4% 71.3% 1.21× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 8.1% 6.9% 15.8% 0.44× 14.43
Alanyaspor (1:0) 4.5% 3.2% 13.0% 0.24× 31.38
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (2:0) 95.5% 96.9% 87.0% 1.11× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 3.3% 2.3% 7.7% 0.29× 44.18
Alanyaspor (2:0) 1.2% 2.3% 5.5% 0.41× 44.32
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.2% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 27.5% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 23.4% 24.1% 4.15
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to concede 62.2% 63.4% 69.8% 0.91× 1.58
Fenerbahce clean sheet 37.8% 36.6% 30.2% 1.21× 2.73
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce clean sheet in 1st half 67.7% 68.9% 1.45
Fenerbahce to concede in 1st half 32.3% 31.1% 3.21
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce over 2.5 corners 87.4% 86.3% 1.16
Fenerbahce over 3.5 corners 75.9% 76.6% 1.31
Fenerbahce under 6.5 corners 64.4% 62.3% 1.61
Fenerbahce over 4.5 corners 62.3% 62.3% 1.61
Fenerbahce under 5.5 corners 51.7% 52.6% 1.90
Fenerbahce over 5.5 corners 48.3% 47.4% 2.11
Fenerbahce under 4.5 corners 37.7% 37.7% 2.65
Fenerbahce over 6.5 corners 35.6% 37.7% 2.65
Fenerbahce under 3.5 corners 24.1% 23.4% 4.27
Fenerbahce under 2.5 corners 12.6% 13.7% 7.30
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce over 0.5 goals 90.9% 92.2% 77.8% 1.19× 1.08
Fenerbahce under 3.5 goals 77.9% 77.8% 92.6% 0.84× 1.29
Fenerbahce over 1.5 goals 69.2% 67.9% 45.9% 1.48× 1.47
Fenerbahce under 2.5 goals 56.9% 58.8% 77.8% 0.76× 1.70
Fenerbahce over 2.5 goals 43.1% 41.2% 22.2% 1.86× 2.43
Fenerbahce under 1.5 goals 30.8% 32.1% 54.1% 0.59× 3.11
Fenerbahce over 3.5 goals 22.1% 22.2% 7.4% 3.01× 4.50
Fenerbahce under 0.5 goals 9.1% 7.8% 22.2% 0.35× 12.90
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce under 1.5 in 1st half 72.4% 79.9% 1.25
Fenerbahce over 0.5 in 1st half 64.4% 64.8% 1.54
Fenerbahce under 0.5 in 1st half 35.6% 35.2% 2.84
Fenerbahce over 1.5 in 1st half 27.6% 20.2% 4.96
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 60.6% 60.2% 47.6% 1.26× 1.66
Alanyaspor (home no bet) 39.4% 39.8% 52.4% 0.76× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce even goals 50.4% 50.6% 50.9% 0.99× 1.98
Fenerbahce odd goals 49.6% 49.4% 49.1% 1.01× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 24.7% 24.2% 4.13
HT 0-0 24.3% 24.2% 4.13
HT 2-0 12.9% 10.9% 9.15
HT 1-1 9.9% 7.2% 13.98
Any other HT score 9.3% 7.1% 13.99
HT 0-1 9.2% 7.1% 13.99
HT 2-1 5.0% 7.1% 14.06
HT 0-2 1.8% 2.3% 43.57
HT 1-2 1.9% 2.3% 43.57
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.3% 43.63
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce at HT / Fenerbahce at FT 45.6% 44.3% 2.26
Draw at HT / Fenerbahce at FT 19.0% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.2% 12.7% 7.90
Alanyaspor at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 6.4% 6.0% 16.69
Draw at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 5.0% 3.5% 28.73
Fenerbahce at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.5% 28.75
Alanyaspor at HT / Draw at FT 3.8% 3.5% 28.77
Alanyaspor at HT / Fenerbahce at FT 3.4% 3.5% 28.79
Fenerbahce at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 1.3% 3.5% 28.87
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to score last 68.2% 70.3% 1.42
Alanyaspor to score last 27.4% 27.0% 3.71
No goal scored 4.4% 4.3% 23.23
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.6% 95.6% 1.05
Fenerbahce to lead by 1 at any time 79.5% 78.5% 1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 62.0% 61.3% 1.63
Fenerbahce to lead by 2 at any time 53.6% 50.8% 1.97
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 32.0% 29.3% 3.41
Alanyaspor to lead by 1 at any time 32.0% 29.3% 3.41
Fenerbahce to lead by 3 at any time 30.0% 29.3% 3.42
Alanyaspor to lead by 2 at any time 8.8% 6.7% 15.03
Alanyaspor to lead by 3 at any time 2.0% 1.6% 62.40
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce most corners 69.1% 64.7% 1.55
Alanyaspor most corners 21.3% 25.8% 3.88
Corners level 9.6% 8.4% 11.89
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.0% 83.5% 85.5% 0.98× 1.20
2-6 goals 80.4% 83.5% 74.0% 1.13× 1.20
2-5 goals 73.4% 72.4% 70.0% 1.03× 1.38
1-4 goals 70.5% 72.4% 75.4% 0.96× 1.38
2-4 goals 60.9% 63.4% 59.9% 1.06× 1.58
3-6 goals 60.0% 59.2% 51.3% 1.15× 1.69
3-5 goals 53.0% 53.2% 47.3% 1.12× 1.88
1-3 goals 52.0% 53.2% 61.2% 0.87× 1.88
2-3 goals 42.4% 43.6% 45.7% 0.95× 2.30
3-4 goals 40.5% 43.6% 37.3% 1.17× 2.30
4-6 goals 38.1% 39.1% 28.4% 1.38× 2.55
4-5 goals 31.0% 35.4% 24.4% 1.45× 2.83
1-2 goals 30.1% 35.4% 38.3% 0.92× 2.83
5-6 goals 19.5% 18.7% 14.2% 1.31× 5.36
7+ goals 5.6% 8.7% 2.7% 3.28× 11.46
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce never behind 63.7% 67.7% 1.48
Alanyaspor never behind 16.1% 18.5% 5.41
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.1% 50.8% 50.7% 1.00× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.9% 49.2% 49.3% 1.00× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.2% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.8% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.7% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.4% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.6% 95.5% 92.0% 1.04× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 87.4% 87.6% 93.3% 0.94× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 86.0% 87.6% 76.5% 1.15× 1.14
Under 4.5 goals 74.9% 72.6% 83.3% 0.87× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 65.6% 66.2% 53.8% 1.23× 1.51
Under 3.5 goals 56.4% 58.8% 69.1% 0.85× 1.70
Over 3.5 goals 43.6% 41.2% 30.9% 1.33× 2.43
Under 2.5 goals 34.4% 33.8% 46.2% 0.73× 2.96
Over 4.5 goals 25.1% 27.5% 16.7% 1.64× 3.64
Under 1.5 goals 14.0% 12.4% 23.5% 0.53× 8.09
Over 5.5 goals 12.6% 12.4% 6.7% 1.86× 8.10
Under 0.5 goals 4.4% 4.5% 8.0% 0.56× 22.20
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.0% 92.5% 97.2% 0.95× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 85.6% 86.7% 92.6% 0.94× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 82.4% 81.1% 69.6% 1.16× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 69.2% 67.4% 80.5% 0.84× 1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 55.9% 55.4% 40.1% 1.38× 1.80
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 44.1% 44.6% 59.9% 0.74× 2.24
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 30.8% 32.6% 19.5% 1.67× 3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 17.6% 18.9% 30.4% 0.62× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 14.4% 13.3% 7.4% 1.79× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 6.0% 7.5% 2.8% 2.72× 13.28
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 82.8% 86.3% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 75.7% 78.7% 1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half 58.2% 62.7% 1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half 41.8% 37.3% 2.68
Under 0.5 in 1st half 24.3% 21.3% 4.71
Over 2.5 in 1st half 17.2% 13.7% 7.28
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 85.5% 85.3% 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 68.9% 67.6% 1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 58.4% 54.8% 1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 41.6% 45.2% 2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 31.1% 32.4% 3.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 14.5% 14.7% 6.80
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor not to score in both halves 85.7% 85.7% 1.17
Fenerbahce not to score in both halves 52.0% 55.6% 1.80
Fenerbahce to score in both halves 48.0% 44.4% 2.25
Alanyaspor to score in both halves 14.3% 14.3% 6.99
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 57.5% 58.4% 55.6% 1.05× 1.71
Only Fenerbahce scores 33.4% 33.4% 22.3% 1.49× 3.00
Only Alanyaspor scores 4.7% 4.6% 14.3% 0.32× 21.79
Neither team scores 4.4% 4.6% 8.0% 0.57× 21.81
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.9% 22.6% 23.1% 0.98× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 20.4% 22.6% 22.8% 0.99× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 18.5% 17.4% 14.3% 1.22× 5.74
Exactly 5 goals 12.5% 12.1% 10.2% 1.18× 8.27
6 or more goals 12.6% 12.1% 6.7% 1.82× 8.27
Exactly 1 goals 9.7% 7.6% 15.7% 0.49× 13.08
Exactly 0 goals 4.4% 4.4% 8.0% 0.55× 22.66
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 58.4% 53.4% 1.87
1 goal in 2nd half 27.1% 29.8% 3.36
No goals in 2nd half 14.5% 14.6% 6.87
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor not to win both halves 97.8% 97.2% 1.03
Fenerbahce not to win both halves 71.2% 72.4% 1.38
Fenerbahce to win both halves 28.8% 27.6% 3.63
Alanyaspor to win both halves 2.2% 2.8% 36.34
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to win either half 78.2% 79.8% 1.25
Alanyaspor to win neither half 73.0% 72.9% 1.37
Alanyaspor to win either half 27.0% 27.1% 3.69
Fenerbahce to win neither half 21.8% 20.2% 4.95
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor not to win to nil 95.3% 96.1% 85.7% 1.12× 1.04
Fenerbahce not to win to nil 66.6% 69.6% 77.7% 0.90× 1.44
Fenerbahce to win to nil 33.4% 30.4% 22.3% 1.36× 3.29
Alanyaspor to win to nil 4.7% 3.9% 14.3% 0.27× 25.63
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce by 3+ 26.3% 27.8% 9.9% 2.81× 3.59
Fenerbahce by 1 21.5% 24.1% 24.1% 1.00× 4.14
Fenerbahce by 2 20.2% 24.1% 11.7% 2.07× 4.14
Draw 19.4% 16.9% 26.0% 0.65× 5.91
Alanyaspor by 1 8.1% 7.3% 15.8% 0.46× 13.78
Alanyaspor by 2 3.3% 2.7% 7.7% 0.35× 36.99
Alanyaspor by 3+ 1.2% 2.7% 5.5% 0.49× 37.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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