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Fenerbahce v Besiktas — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · TUR-Super Lig · 2627

TUR-Super Lig results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Fenerbahce win
55.5%
Draw
22.8%
Besiktas win
21.7%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.11–1.27 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.91–1.26 1-1 11% 61% 62%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to win 55.5% 58.4% 45.3% 1.29× 1.71
Draw 22.8% 22.1% 26.0% 0.85× 4.52
Besiktas to win 21.7% 22.1% 28.9% 0.76× 4.52
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce & both teams score 31.9% 32.7% 23.2% 1.41× 3.06
Fenerbahce & not both score 23.6% 22.6% 22.3% 1.02× 4.42
Draw & both teams score 18.4% 17.8% 18.1% 0.98× 5.63
Besiktas & both teams score 13.9% 12.2% 14.6% 0.83× 8.21
Besiktas & not both score 7.8% 7.3% 14.5% 0.51× 13.66
Draw & not both score 4.4% 3.7% 8.0% 0.46× 27.05
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce & over 1.5 49.3% 46.9% 36.1% 1.30× 2.13
Fenerbahce & over 2.5 41.7% 43.9% 30.2% 1.45× 2.28
Fenerbahce & under 3.5 28.7% 25.5% 29.4% 0.87× 3.92
Fenerbahce & over 3.5 26.8% 25.5% 16.1% 1.59× 3.92
Draw & over 1.5 18.4% 17.6% 18.1% 0.97× 5.69
Besiktas & over 1.5 18.3% 17.6% 22.4% 0.78× 5.69
Besiktas & over 2.5 15.5% 17.6% 18.1% 0.97× 5.70
Draw & under 2.5 14.5% 12.7% 20.4% 0.63× 7.86
Draw & under 3.5 14.5% 12.7% 20.4% 0.63× 7.86
Fenerbahce & under 2.5 13.8% 12.7% 15.2% 0.84× 7.86
Besiktas & under 3.5 13.1% 12.7% 19.6% 0.65× 7.86
Draw & over 2.5 8.3% 7.5% 5.8% 1.30× 13.40
Draw & over 3.5 8.3% 7.5% 5.8% 1.30× 13.40
Besiktas & over 3.5 8.5% 7.5% 9.4% 0.79× 13.40
Fenerbahce & under 1.5 6.2% 7.5% 9.3% 0.80× 13.42
Besiktas & under 2.5 6.1% 7.5% 10.9% 0.68× 13.42
Draw & under 1.5 4.4% 4.6% 8.0% 0.57× 21.92
Besiktas & under 1.5 3.4% 4.6% 6.6% 0.69× 21.96
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (1UP) 71.3% 76.4% 1.31
Besiktas (1UP) 42.9% 43.4% 2.30
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (2UP) 55.5% 61.0% 1.64
Besiktas (2UP) 21.7% 21.1% 4.75
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to win 2nd half 46.0% 44.4% 2.25
2nd half drawn 30.8% 33.7% 2.97
Besiktas to win 2nd half 23.2% 22.3% 4.48
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas (+2.5) 82.7% 82.3% 90.1% 0.91× 1.22
Fenerbahce (+0.5) 78.3% 78.6% 71.1% 1.11× 1.27
Besiktas (+1.5) 65.7% 68.9% 78.6% 0.88× 1.45
Fenerbahce (-0.5) 55.5% 57.1% 45.3% 1.26× 1.75
Besiktas (+0.5) 44.5% 42.9% 54.7% 0.78× 2.33
Fenerbahce (-1.5) 34.3% 31.1% 21.4% 1.45× 3.21
Besiktas (-0.5) 21.7% 21.4% 28.9% 0.74× 4.67
Fenerbahce (-2.5) 17.3% 17.7% 9.9% 1.79× 5.65
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas to concede 87.8% 89.9% 77.7% 1.16× 1.11
Besiktas clean sheet 12.2% 10.1% 22.3% 0.45× 9.87
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas to concede in 1st half 59.5% 60.4% 1.66
Besiktas clean sheet in 1st half 40.5% 39.6% 2.53
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas under 3.5 goals 96.0% 97.3% 95.3% 1.02× 1.03
Besiktas under 2.5 goals 86.4% 88.9% 86.1% 1.03× 1.13
Besiktas over 0.5 goals 72.0% 71.9% 69.9% 1.03× 1.39
Besiktas under 1.5 goals 63.7% 64.2% 65.2% 0.99× 1.56
Besiktas over 1.5 goals 36.3% 35.8% 34.8% 1.03× 2.79
Besiktas under 0.5 goals 28.0% 28.1% 30.1% 0.93× 3.56
Besiktas over 2.5 goals 13.6% 11.1% 13.9% 0.80× 9.01
Besiktas over 3.5 goals 4.0% 2.7% 4.7% 0.57× 37.07
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas under 1.5 in 1st half 90.7% 93.2% 1.07
Besiktas under 0.5 in 1st half 60.1% 63.4% 1.58
Besiktas over 0.5 in 1st half 39.9% 36.6% 2.74
Besiktas over 1.5 in 1st half 9.3% 6.8% 14.66
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (away no bet) 70.9% 74.2% 63.6% 1.17× 1.35
Draw (away no bet) 29.1% 25.8% 36.4% 0.71× 3.87
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas even goals 53.9% 52.4% 54.4% 0.96× 1.91
Besiktas odd goals 46.1% 47.6% 45.6% 1.04× 2.10
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 75.9% 79.5% 1.26
Both halves over 1.5 goals 24.1% 20.5% 4.88
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 76.1% 73.0% 1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals 23.9% 27.0% 3.71
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 67.8% 64.9% 1.54
Fenerbahce to score 2+ in a row 52.5% 52.9% 1.89
Either team to score 3+ in a row 29.8% 25.2% 3.96
Besiktas to score 2+ in a row 25.0% 25.1% 3.99
Fenerbahce to score 3+ in a row 23.9% 21.8% 4.59
Besiktas to score 3+ in a row 6.5% 7.3% 13.68
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.1% 11.6% 12.5% 0.92× 8.64
2-1 9.6% 7.3% 9.9% 0.74× 13.74
2-0 7.6% 7.3% 6.0% 1.20× 13.74
Any other score 7.1% 7.3% 4.1% 1.76× 13.75
3-1 6.8% 7.3% 4.7% 1.54× 13.75
1-0 6.2% 7.3% 9.3% 0.78× 13.75
1-2 5.8% 7.3% 6.6% 1.10× 13.75
2-2 6.1% 7.3% 4.6% 1.59× 13.75
3-0 5.3% 7.3% 4.6% 1.59× 13.75
0-0 4.4% 1.8% 8.0% 0.23× 55.40
3-2 4.3% 1.8% 4.3% 0.42× 55.40
0-1 3.4% 1.8% 6.6% 0.27× 55.42
0-2 2.8% 1.8% 4.4% 0.41× 55.44
1-3 2.5% 1.8% 2.7% 0.68× 55.45
2-3 2.6% 1.8% 2.7% 0.68× 55.44
4-0 2.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.02× 55.44
4-1 3.6% 1.8% 1.5% 1.22× 55.42
3-3 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.36× 55.46
4-2 2.3% 1.8% 1.2% 1.53× 55.45
0-3 1.2% 1.8% 2.4% 0.76× 55.48
0-4 0.4% 1.8% 1.2% 1.53× 55.50
1-4 0.8% 1.8% 1.0% 1.75× 55.49
2-4 0.8% 1.8% 0.9% 2.04× 55.49
3-4 0.6% 1.8% 0.4% 4.07× 55.49
4-3 1.0% 1.8% 0.7% 2.44× 55.48
4-4 0.3% 1.8% 0.1% 12.22× 55.50
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce leading at HT (DNB) 68.7% 67.2% 1.49
Besiktas leading at HT (DNB) 31.3% 32.8% 3.05
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce or draw (1X) 78.3% 77.9% 71.1% 1.10× 1.28
Fenerbahce or Besiktas (12) 77.2% 77.9% 74.0% 1.05× 1.28
Besiktas or draw (X2) 44.5% 41.6% 54.7% 0.76× 2.40
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce or draw at HT 80.4% 81.6% 1.23
Fenerbahce or Besiktas at HT 62.8% 63.2% 1.58
Besiktas or draw at HT 56.8% 58.2% 1.72
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce or draw (1UP) 78.3% 84.7% 1.18
Besiktas or draw (1UP) 44.5% 45.9% 2.18
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce or draw in 2nd half 76.8% 77.7% 1.29
Fenerbahce or Besiktas in 2nd half 69.2% 66.3% 1.51
Besiktas or draw in 2nd half 54.0% 55.6% 1.80
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 55.5% 57.8% 1.73
Neither half drawn 44.6% 42.2% 2.37
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (DNB) 71.9% 71.3% 61.0% 1.17× 1.40
Besiktas (DNB) 28.1% 28.7% 39.0% 0.74× 3.48
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to score first 59.6% 62.2% 1.61
Besiktas to score first 36.0% 37.1% 2.69
No goal scored 4.4% 4.1% 24.64
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 64.2% 57.6% 55.6% 1.04× 1.74
Not both teams to score 35.8% 42.4% 44.4% 0.95× 2.36
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 54.1% 47.2% 43.2% 1.09× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 24.3% 25.7% 33.8% 0.76× 3.90
Not both score & over 2.5 11.5% 11.7% 10.8% 1.09× 8.54
Both score & under 2.5 10.1% 11.7% 12.5% 0.93× 8.55
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 77.4% 83.6% 83.3% 1.00× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 22.6% 16.4% 16.7% 0.99× 6.09
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 62.4% 64.7% 1.55
Both teams to score in 2nd half 37.6% 35.3% 2.83
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 47.3% 54.3% 1.84
Both score 2nd half only 28.8% 24.8% 4.03
Both score 1st half only 15.1% 18.0% 5.54
Both score in both halves 8.9% 6.5% 15.29
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 76.1% 79.7% 1.26
Both teams to score by HT 23.9% 20.3% 4.93
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 65.5% 66.2% 1.51
A half without a goal 34.5% 33.8% 2.96
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 42.4% 43.2% 45.6% 0.95× 2.32
4-6 goals 38.0% 35.4% 28.5% 1.24× 2.82
0-1 goals 14.0% 16.9% 23.6% 0.72× 5.90
7+ goals 5.6% 5.4% 2.7% 2.03× 18.59
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas to score exactly 1 35.7% 34.5% 35.3% 0.98× 2.90
Besiktas to score exactly 0 28.0% 27.1% 30.1% 0.90× 3.69
Besiktas to score exactly 2 22.7% 24.0% 21.1% 1.14× 4.17
Besiktas to score 3+ 13.6% 13.4% 13.9% 0.97× 7.44
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to score 3+ 35.2% 35.9% 22.1% 1.62× 2.78
Fenerbahce to score exactly 2 27.0% 27.1% 23.9% 1.13× 3.70
Fenerbahce to score exactly 1 25.7% 27.0% 32.0% 0.84× 3.70
Fenerbahce to score exactly 0 12.2% 13.4% 22.3% 0.60× 7.44
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce leading at HT 43.2% 41.8% 2.39
Draw at HT 37.2% 36.8% 2.72
Besiktas leading at HT 19.6% 18.4% 5.43
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce -1: 2 44.5% 42.4% 2.36
Fenerbahce -1: 1 34.3% 32.3% 3.10
Fenerbahce -1: X 21.2% 23.9% 4.18
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas (0:1) 44.5% 42.0% 54.7% 0.77× 2.38
Fenerbahce (0:1) 34.3% 34.8% 21.4% 1.63× 2.88
Draw (0:1) 21.2% 24.4% 24.0% 1.01× 4.10
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas (0:2) 65.7% 65.7% 78.6% 0.84× 1.52
Fenerbahce (0:2) 17.3% 16.3% 9.9% 1.65× 6.13
Draw (0:2) 17.0% 16.3% 11.7% 1.40× 6.13
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas (0:3) 82.7% 83.5% 90.1% 0.93× 1.20
Draw (0:3) 10.0% 7.0% 6.5% 1.08× 14.31
Fenerbahce (0:3) 7.3% 6.9% 3.5% 1.95× 14.46
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas (0:4) 92.7% 94.1% 96.5% 0.98× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 4.7% 1.3% 2.5% 0.51× 78.98
Fenerbahce (0:4) 2.6% 1.3% 1.2% 1.06× 80.01
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (1:0) 78.3% 78.1% 71.1% 1.10× 1.28
Draw (1:0) 12.5% 11.8% 15.9% 0.74× 8.50
Besiktas (1:0) 9.2% 8.6% 13.1% 0.66× 11.60
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (2:0) 90.8% 91.6% 86.9% 1.05× 1.09
Draw (2:0) 6.2% 6.6% 7.8% 0.84× 15.21
Besiktas (2:0) 3.0% 2.7% 5.5% 0.49× 37.07
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.6% 48.8% 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.1% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 23.3% 23.2% 4.31
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to concede 72.0% 71.1% 69.9% 1.02× 1.41
Fenerbahce clean sheet 28.0% 28.9% 30.1% 0.96× 3.47
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce clean sheet in 1st half 60.1% 63.3% 1.58
Fenerbahce to concede in 1st half 39.9% 36.7% 2.72
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce over 0.5 goals 87.8% 87.8% 77.7% 1.13× 1.14
Fenerbahce under 3.5 goals 83.8% 82.5% 92.6% 0.89× 1.21
Fenerbahce under 2.5 goals 64.9% 62.7% 77.9% 0.81× 1.59
Fenerbahce over 1.5 goals 62.2% 62.6% 45.9% 1.37× 1.60
Fenerbahce under 1.5 goals 37.8% 37.4% 54.1% 0.69× 2.68
Fenerbahce over 2.5 goals 35.2% 37.3% 22.1% 1.68× 2.68
Fenerbahce over 3.5 goals 16.2% 17.5% 7.4% 2.38× 5.70
Fenerbahce under 0.5 goals 12.2% 12.2% 22.3% 0.55× 8.20
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce under 1.5 in 1st half 77.1% 79.1% 1.26
Fenerbahce over 0.5 in 1st half 59.5% 60.2% 1.66
Fenerbahce under 0.5 in 1st half 40.5% 39.8% 2.51
Fenerbahce over 1.5 in 1st half 22.9% 20.9% 4.79
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas (home no bet) 48.7% 51.4% 52.7% 0.98× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 51.3% 48.6% 47.3% 1.03× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce even goals 50.7% 50.2% 51.0% 0.98× 1.99
Fenerbahce odd goals 49.3% 49.8% 49.0% 1.02× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 24.5% 22.7% 4.41
HT 1-0 21.8% 22.6% 4.42
HT 0-1 12.2% 11.2% 8.94
HT 1-1 11.4% 11.2% 8.95
HT 2-0 10.0% 7.7% 12.97
Any other HT score 7.8% 7.7% 13.00
HT 2-1 5.1% 7.7% 13.04
HT 0-2 3.1% 2.5% 39.82
HT 1-2 2.8% 2.5% 39.84
HT 2-2 1.3% 2.5% 39.93
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce at HT / Fenerbahce at FT 35.6% 41.2% 2.43
Draw at HT / Fenerbahce at FT 16.5% 16.8% 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.6% 12.0% 8.35
Besiktas at HT / Besiktas at FT 11.5% 12.0% 8.36
Draw at HT / Besiktas at FT 8.1% 6.6% 15.20
Fenerbahce at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.6% 15.26
Besiktas at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.4% 29.31
Besiktas at HT / Fenerbahce at FT 3.4% 3.4% 29.37
Fenerbahce at HT / Besiktas at FT 2.1% 3.4% 29.42
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to score last 59.7% 56.7% 1.76
Besiktas to score last 35.9% 37.9% 2.64
No goal scored 4.4% 4.1% 24.64
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.6% 95.9% 1.04
Fenerbahce to lead by 1 at any time 71.3% 76.8% 1.30
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 57.6% 59.6% 1.68
Besiktas to lead by 1 at any time 42.9% 42.1% 2.38
Fenerbahce to lead by 2 at any time 42.5% 42.1% 2.38
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 25.5% 25.9% 3.86
Fenerbahce to lead by 3 at any time 20.9% 19.8% 5.06
Besiktas to lead by 2 at any time 15.5% 17.6% 5.67
Besiktas to lead by 3 at any time 4.6% 2.6% 37.76
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.0% 81.6% 85.4% 0.96× 1.23
2-6 goals 80.4% 81.5% 73.9% 1.10× 1.23
2-5 goals 73.4% 73.6% 69.8% 1.06× 1.36
1-4 goals 70.5% 73.6% 75.4% 0.98× 1.36
2-4 goals 60.9% 62.3% 59.7% 1.04× 1.61
3-6 goals 60.0% 58.8% 51.3% 1.15× 1.70
3-5 goals 52.9% 52.3% 47.2% 1.11× 1.91
1-3 goals 52.0% 52.3% 61.2% 0.85× 1.91
2-3 goals 42.4% 43.6% 45.6% 0.96× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.4% 43.6% 37.2% 1.17× 2.29
4-6 goals 38.0% 38.8% 28.5% 1.36× 2.57
4-5 goals 31.0% 34.1% 24.3% 1.40× 2.93
1-2 goals 30.0% 34.1% 38.3% 0.89× 2.94
5-6 goals 19.5% 18.2% 14.3% 1.27× 5.51
7+ goals 5.6% 8.7% 2.7% 3.29× 11.44
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce never behind 52.7% 61.3% 1.63
Besiktas never behind 24.3% 24.1% 4.15
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.0% 50.1% 50.7% 0.99× 2.00
Even number of goals 52.0% 49.9% 49.3% 1.01× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.3% 51.9% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.7% 48.1% 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.7% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.3% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.6% 95.6% 92.0% 1.04× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 87.4% 88.8% 93.2% 0.95× 1.13
Over 1.5 goals 86.0% 88.7% 76.4% 1.16× 1.13
Under 4.5 goals 74.9% 72.5% 83.2% 0.87× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 65.6% 65.4% 53.8% 1.22× 1.53
Under 3.5 goals 56.4% 57.7% 69.0% 0.84× 1.73
Over 3.5 goals 43.6% 42.3% 31.0% 1.37× 2.36
Under 2.5 goals 34.4% 34.6% 46.2% 0.75× 2.89
Over 4.5 goals 25.1% 27.5% 16.8% 1.64× 3.63
Under 1.5 goals 14.0% 11.3% 23.6% 0.48× 8.87
Over 5.5 goals 12.6% 11.2% 6.8% 1.66× 8.90
Under 0.5 goals 4.4% 4.4% 8.0% 0.55× 22.80
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.0% 92.8% 97.2% 0.95× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 85.6% 88.0% 92.5% 0.95× 1.14
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 82.4% 80.7% 69.5% 1.16× 1.24
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 69.2% 68.1% 80.4% 0.85× 1.47
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 55.9% 55.3% 40.2% 1.38× 1.81
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 44.1% 44.7% 59.8% 0.75× 2.24
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 30.8% 31.9% 19.6% 1.63× 3.14
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 17.6% 19.3% 30.5% 0.63× 5.18
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 14.4% 12.0% 7.5% 1.59× 8.36
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 6.0% 7.2% 2.8% 2.62× 13.81
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 83.0% 83.7% 1.20
Over 0.5 in 1st half 75.5% 77.9% 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 58.5% 60.2% 1.66
Over 1.5 in 1st half 41.5% 39.8% 2.51
Under 0.5 in 1st half 24.5% 22.1% 4.53
Over 2.5 in 1st half 17.0% 16.3% 6.13
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 85.6% 85.7% 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 68.7% 68.4% 1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 58.7% 54.3% 1.84
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 41.3% 45.7% 2.19
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 31.3% 31.6% 3.17
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 14.4% 14.3% 7.01
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas not to score in both halves 78.7% 78.2% 1.28
Fenerbahce not to score in both halves 58.4% 60.1% 1.66
Fenerbahce to score in both halves 41.6% 39.9% 2.51
Besiktas to score in both halves 21.3% 21.8% 4.58
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 64.2% 58.4% 55.6% 1.05× 1.71
Only Fenerbahce scores 23.6% 22.9% 22.3% 1.03× 4.37
Only Besiktas scores 7.8% 6.7% 14.5% 0.46× 15.01
Neither team scores 4.4% 3.9% 8.0% 0.49× 25.49
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.9% 21.5% 23.0% 0.94× 4.64
Exactly 2 goals 20.5% 21.5% 22.7% 0.95× 4.64
Exactly 4 goals 18.5% 18.6% 14.3% 1.30× 5.38
6 or more goals 12.6% 12.4% 6.8% 1.82× 8.09
Exactly 5 goals 12.5% 12.4% 10.2% 1.21× 8.09
Exactly 1 goals 9.6% 7.6% 15.8% 0.48× 13.11
Exactly 0 goals 4.4% 4.4% 8.0% 0.55× 22.85
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 58.7% 55.2% 1.81
1 goal in 2nd half 26.9% 28.4% 3.52
No goals in 2nd half 14.4% 13.1% 7.63
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas not to win both halves 95.3% 96.6% 1.04
Fenerbahce not to win both halves 79.9% 80.3% 1.25
Fenerbahce to win both halves 20.1% 19.7% 5.09
Besiktas to win both halves 4.7% 3.4% 29.68
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to win either half 69.1% 67.3% 1.49
Besiktas to win neither half 61.9% 63.6% 1.57
Besiktas to win either half 38.1% 36.4% 2.75
Fenerbahce to win neither half 30.9% 32.7% 3.06
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Besiktas not to win to nil 92.2% 92.3% 85.5% 1.08× 1.08
Fenerbahce not to win to nil 76.4% 77.1% 77.7% 0.99× 1.30
Fenerbahce to win to nil 23.6% 22.9% 22.3% 1.03× 4.37
Besiktas to win to nil 7.8% 7.7% 14.5% 0.53× 13.01
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 22.8% 23.7% 26.0% 0.91× 4.21
Fenerbahce by 1 21.2% 23.7% 24.0% 0.99× 4.22
Fenerbahce by 3+ 17.3% 17.0% 9.9% 1.72× 5.89
Fenerbahce by 2 17.0% 17.0% 11.7% 1.46× 5.89
Besiktas by 1 12.5% 11.9% 15.9% 0.74× 8.44
Besiktas by 2 6.2% 7.1% 7.8% 0.91× 14.13
Besiktas by 3+ 3.0% 2.8% 5.5% 0.52× 35.35
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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