Fenerbahce v Goztepe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 November 2026 · TUR-Super Lig · 2627
TUR-Super Lig
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (999 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-0 9.8%
- 2-1 9.7%
- 1-1 9.2%
- 3-0 7.7%
- 3-1 7.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 64.9% | Under 2.5 | 35.1% |
| BTTS yes | 57.9% | BTTS no | 42.1% |
| Fenerbahce 1+ | 90.5% | Fenerbahce 2+ | 68.1% |
| Goztepe 1+ | 62.9% | Goztepe 2+ | 26.1% |
Expected goals 2.35 – 0.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Fenerbahce carry the stronger rating, 1760 Elo against 1538.
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Fenerbahce have an estimated 67.6% win probability, against 19.1% for the draw and 13.3% for Goztepe. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.35 for Fenerbahce and 0.99 for Goztepe.
Why Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce carry the stronger rating, 1760 Elo against 1538. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 19.1%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why Goztepe can win
Nothing in the data singles out Goztepe.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Fenerbahce, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Goztepe, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Fenerbahce: 59% possession, 20.8 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Goztepe: 38% possession, 17.2 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Fenerbahce's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Fenerbahce are the model's most likely outcome at 67.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 9.8%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 2.35–1.13 | 2-1 10% | 68% | 62% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.