Fenerbahce v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627
Champions League
results-only
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (2,277 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 10.0%
- 2-1 9.9%
- 1-0 9.5%
- 2-0 9.5%
- 3-1 6.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 58.6% | Under 2.5 | 41.4% |
| BTTS yes | 56.2% | BTTS no | 43.8% |
| Fenerbahce 1+ | 86.3% | Fenerbahce 2+ | 59.1% |
| Liverpool 1+ | 65.1% | Liverpool 2+ | 28.3% |
Expected goals 1.99 – 1.05. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Fenerbahce carry the stronger rating, 1760 Elo against 1640.
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Fenerbahce have an estimated 58.4% win probability, against 22.9% for the draw and 18.7% for Liverpool. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.99 for Fenerbahce and 1.05 for Liverpool.
Why Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce carry the stronger rating, 1760 Elo against 1640. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.9%. Draws run at 16% in this competition.
Why Liverpool can win
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Key players
Liverpool's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mohamed Salah (0.53), Cody Gakpo (0.39), Dominik Szoboszlai (0.37).
Availability
No lineup on record for Fenerbahce, so availability is unknown. 1 of Liverpool's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Liverpool's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Fenerbahce: 59% possession, 20.8 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Liverpool: 59% possession, 18.0 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.63 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Fenerbahce are the model's most likely outcome at 58.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.0%. Confidence 57/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.