Fiorentina v AC Milan — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 13
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
16 – 9
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.49 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-1.41 – -1.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
23.9%
Draw
23.2%
AC Milan win
52.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLWLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.12–1.78 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–1.64 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 60% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 2.41 xGAC Milan 2.05 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
AC Milan attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Fiorentina |
Robin Gosens | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 10' |
Fiorentina |
Marin Pongracic | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 17' |
 AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.69 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 20' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 22' |
AC Milan |
Matteo Gabbia | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Samuele Ricci |
| 25' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 35' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
AC Milan |
Samuele Ricci | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 39' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Fabiano Parisi |
| 41' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 47' |
AC Milan |
Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 51' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 55' |
Fiorentina |
Robin Gosens | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 58' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 61' |
Fiorentina |
Robin Gosens | 0.19 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dodô |
| 63' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 65' |
Fiorentina |
Pietro Comuzzo | 0.37 | From Corner | — | Goal | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 66' |
AC Milan |
Strahinja Pavlovic | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 72' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 74' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 75' |
Fiorentina |
Marco Brescianini | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fabiano Parisi |
| 81' |
AC Milan |
Davide Bartesaghi | 0.14 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 83' |
AC Milan |
Samuele Ricci | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 87' |
AC Milan |
Samuele Ricci | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 89' |
AC Milan |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Youssouf Fofana |
| 95' |
Fiorentina |
Marco Brescianini | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 95' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 96' |
Fiorentina |
Luca Ranieri | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 96' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Manor Solomon |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Pulisic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.16 | 0.15 | 1.34 |
| Samuele Ricci MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1.74 |
| Matteo Gabbia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1.34 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Koni de Winter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.28 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Ardon Jashari MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Niclas Füllkrug FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.16 | 1.19 |
| Estupiñán DML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.19 |
| Davide Bartesaghi Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Adrien Rabiot Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Rafael Leão Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Youssouf Fofana Sub | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| Christopher Nkunku Sub | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.02 | 0.52 |
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cher Ndour MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Pietro Comuzzo DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Moise Kean FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.07 | 0.30 | 0.82 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.28 | 0.78 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Robin Gosens DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Albert Gudmundsson FWL | 87 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| Fabiano Parisi FWR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.44 |
| Marco Brescianini Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Luca Ranieri Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Manor Solomon Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Niccolò Fortini Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Sohm Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |