Fiorentina v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 22 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 21
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 11
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.35 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.15 – -0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
26.9%
Draw
25.0%
Atalanta win
48.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDLDWLDWW last 10
scored 13
from 14.0 xG
conceded 10
from 14.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.02–1.47 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.48–1.77 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 64% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 1.15 xGAtalanta 1.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 14' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 16' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kamaldeen Sulemana |
| 17' |
Atalanta |
Yunus Musah | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marten de Roon |
| 18' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marten de Roon |
| 18' |
Atalanta |
Marten de Roon | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
 Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 32' |
Atalanta |
Marten de Roon | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yunus Musah |
| 38' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 38' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Marco Brescianini |
| 41' |
Fiorentina |
Giovanni Fabbian | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 44' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 45' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Dodô |
| 49' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 50' |
Atalanta |
Honest Ahanor | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 55' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 56' |
Fiorentina |
Jack Harrison | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giovanni Fabbian |
| 57' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kamaldeen Sulemana |
| 57' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 60' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Fiorentina |
Daniele Rugani | 0.27 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 63' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 65' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 76' |
Atalanta |
Isak Hien | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 76' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 79' |
Fiorentina |
Giovanni Fabbian | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 80' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Berat Gjimshiti |
| 81' |
Fiorentina |
Pietro Comuzzo | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 81' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 84' |
Fiorentina |
Giovanni Fabbian | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 85' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Fiorentina |
Jack Harrison | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manor Solomon |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Fabbian MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.03 | 0.46 |
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Jack Harrison FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.46 | 0.60 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.32 |
| Pietro Comuzzo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.49 |
| Oliver Christensen GK | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Robin Gosens DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Albert Gudmundsson FWL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| Daniele Rugani DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Brescianini MC | 67 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| Marin Pongracic Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cher Ndour Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Luís Balbo Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Manor Solomon Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Luca Lezzerini Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Pasalic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.63 | 0.11 | 1.18 |
| Giacomo Raspadori FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.81 |
| Yunus Musah DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.60 |
| Honest Ahanor DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Isak Hien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Marco Sportiello GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.39 | 0.67 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.81 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Lazar Samardzic AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.65 |
| Raoul Bellanova DMR | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Davide Zappacosta Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.14 | 0.52 |
| Charles De Ketelaere Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Berat Gjimshiti Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Gianluca Scamacca Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dominic Vavassori Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |