Fiorentina v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Fiorentina

14:00 UTC

Atalanta

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 75h before kick-off

Fiorentina win

30.8%

model 31.7%

Draw

23.8%

model 24.2%

Atalanta win

45.3%

model 44.1%

312445

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.2%
1-2 9.1%
0-1 8.3%
2-1 7.5%
1-0 6.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.1%	Under 2.5	42.9%
BTTS yes	59.4%	BTTS no	40.6%
Fiorentina 1+	74.0%	Fiorentina 2+	38.9%
Atalanta 1+	80.3%	Atalanta 2+	48.4%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.63. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

99/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Atalanta to win either half

Win either half · usually 48%

59.3% fair odds 1.69

moderate signal · 1050 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 91%

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Atalanta carry the stronger rating, 1598 Elo against 1504.
Atalanta have created 1.27 xG a match over their last five while Fiorentina have allowed 1.72.
Away from home Atalanta average 1.28 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.43 expected goal involvements a match against 0.76.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Atalanta have an estimated 45.3% win probability, against 30.8% for Fiorentina and 23.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.35 for Fiorentina and 1.63 for Atalanta.

Why Fiorentina

Fiorentina have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Atalanta have allowed 2.05. At home Fiorentina average 1.63 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Atalanta can win

Atalanta carry the stronger rating, 1598 Elo against 1504. Atalanta have created 1.27 xG a match over their last five while Fiorentina have allowed 1.72. Away from home Atalanta average 1.28 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.43 expected goal involvements a match against 0.76.

Key players

Fiorentina's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Moise Kean (0.51), Franco Mastantuono (0.47), Alieu Njie (0.44). Atalanta's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Nikola Krstovic (0.41), Charles De Ketelaere (0.40), Jonathan Rowe (0.33).

Availability

2 of Fiorentina's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Fiorentina's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Fiorentina: 46% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.21 xG a match from set pieces. Atalanta: 45% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces. Fiorentina's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Atalanta are the model's most likely outcome at 45.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWDLLLWDLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.6 xG conceded 18 from 17.2 xG

Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLDWWLLLWL last 10 scored 14 from 12.8 xG conceded 15 from 20.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	322444	1.35–1.63	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	332443	1.40–1.61	1-1 11%	58%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to win	43.6%	43.0%	33.6%	1.28×	2.33
Fiorentina to win	32.8%	30.4%	40.1%	0.76×	3.29
Draw	23.6%	24.5%	26.4%	0.93×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta & both teams score	24.1%	21.8%	13.1%	1.66×	4.58
Atalanta & not both score	19.5%	18.0%	20.6%	0.87×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.56
Fiorentina & both teams score	18.6%	18.0%	17.7%	1.02×	5.56
Fiorentina & not both score	14.2%	13.3%	22.6%	0.59×	7.54
Draw & not both score	4.5%	4.9%	7.9%	0.62×	20.52

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta & over 1.5	36.1%	34.9%	24.6%	1.42×	2.87
Atalanta & over 2.5	29.8%	26.1%	18.0%	1.44×	3.84
Fiorentina & over 1.5	26.4%	26.1%	30.1%	0.87×	3.84
Atalanta & under 3.5	26.3%	26.1%	26.3%	0.99×	3.84
Fiorentina & over 2.5	21.8%	21.6%	23.4%	0.92×	4.63
Fiorentina & under 3.5	20.8%	21.6%	29.6%	0.73×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Atalanta & over 3.5	17.3%	18.0%	7.4%	2.43×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	19.6%	0.92×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.2%	18.0%	19.6%	0.92×	5.56
Atalanta & under 2.5	13.8%	12.8%	15.7%	0.82×	7.79
Fiorentina & over 3.5	12.0%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Fiorentina & under 2.5	10.9%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	8.4%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.4%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.63
Atalanta & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Fiorentina & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.5%	4.8%	7.9%	0.61×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (1UP)	61.2%	62.7%	50.3%	1.25×	1.59
Fiorentina (1UP)	52.1%	52.5%	55.4%	0.95×	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (2UP)	43.6%	47.2%	36.1%	1.31×	2.12
Fiorentina (2UP)	32.8%	30.4%	42.1%	0.72×	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to win 2nd half	36.4%	36.2%	30.2%	1.20×	2.76
2nd half drawn	34.4%	34.2%	34.9%	0.98×	2.93
Fiorentina to win 2nd half	29.3%	26.1%	35.0%	0.75×	3.83

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 1.5 in 2nd half	77.4%	79.2%	84.8%	0.93×	1.26
Atalanta over 0.5 in 2nd half	59.2%	54.4%	50.2%	1.08×	1.84
Atalanta under 0.5 in 2nd half	40.8%	45.6%	49.8%	0.91×	2.20
Atalanta over 1.5 in 2nd half	22.6%	20.8%	15.2%	1.37×	4.80

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	82.6%	81.1%	1.02×	1.21
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.7%	55.2%	53.9%	1.03×	1.81
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.3%	44.8%	46.1%	0.97×	2.23
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	17.4%	18.9%	0.92×	5.76

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (+2.5)	94.5%	92.1%	92.4%	1.00×	1.09
Atalanta (+1.5)	85.0%	88.5%	82.4%	1.07×	1.13
Atalanta (+0.5)	67.2%	68.7%	59.9%	1.15×	1.46
Fiorentina (+0.5)	56.4%	57.0%	66.4%	0.86×	1.75
Atalanta (-0.5)	43.6%	43.0%	33.6%	1.28×	2.33
Fiorentina (-0.5)	32.8%	31.3%	40.1%	0.78×	3.19
Fiorentina (-1.5)	15.0%	11.5%	17.6%	0.66×	8.66
Fiorentina (-2.5)	5.5%	7.9%	7.6%	1.03×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to concede	76.0%	78.8%	71.7%	1.10×	1.27
Atalanta clean sheet	24.0%	21.2%	28.3%	0.75×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta clean sheet in 1st half	51.8%	50.5%	57.9%	0.87×	1.98
Atalanta to concede in 1st half	48.2%	49.5%	42.1%	1.18×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to concede in 2nd half	53.7%	54.9%	53.9%	1.02×	1.82
Atalanta clean sheet in 2nd half	46.3%	45.1%	46.1%	0.98×	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 6.5 corners	81.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Atalanta over 2.5 corners	73.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Atalanta under 5.5 corners	71.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Atalanta under 4.5 corners	58.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Atalanta over 3.5 corners	56.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Atalanta under 3.5 corners	43.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Atalanta over 4.5 corners	41.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Atalanta over 5.5 corners	28.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Atalanta under 2.5 corners	27.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Atalanta over 6.5 corners	18.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 3.5 goals	91.0%	92.3%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Atalanta over 0.5 goals	81.4%	81.5%	69.7%	1.17×	1.23
Atalanta under 2.5 goals	76.3%	76.2%	88.1%	0.87×	1.31
Atalanta over 1.5 goals	50.0%	53.5%	35.1%	1.52×	1.87
Atalanta under 1.5 goals	50.0%	46.5%	64.9%	0.72×	2.15
Atalanta over 2.5 goals	23.7%	23.8%	11.9%	1.99×	4.21
Atalanta under 0.5 goals	18.6%	18.5%	30.3%	0.61×	5.40
Atalanta over 3.5 goals	9.0%	7.7%	2.9%	2.67×	13.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 1.5 in 1st half	81.5%	82.8%	90.0%	0.92×	1.21
Atalanta over 0.5 in 1st half	54.3%	55.5%	41.0%	1.35×	1.80
Atalanta under 0.5 in 1st half	45.7%	44.5%	59.0%	0.75×	2.25
Atalanta over 1.5 in 1st half	18.5%	17.3%	10.0%	1.72×	5.80

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta scores more in 2nd half	36.0%	37.4%	33.1%	1.13×	2.67
Atalanta scores equally in both	34.2%	33.3%	43.3%	0.77×	3.01
Atalanta scores more in 1st half	29.7%	26.7%	23.8%	1.12×	3.74

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (away no bet)	58.1%	57.4%	60.3%	0.95×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.9%	42.6%	39.7%	1.07×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta even goals	51.7%	52.6%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90
Atalanta odd goals	48.3%	47.4%	44.4%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.0%	81.3%	87.3%	0.93×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.0%	18.7%	12.7%	1.48×	5.35

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.9%	67.6%	60.5%	1.12×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.1%	32.4%	39.5%	0.82×	3.08

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.3%	59.9%	53.6%	1.12×	1.67
Atalanta to score 2+ in a row	39.9%	36.7%	27.8%	1.32×	2.73
Fiorentina to score 2+ in a row	31.3%	29.0%	32.0%	0.91×	3.45
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.9%	19.6%	17.8%	1.10×	5.09
Atalanta to score 3+ in a row	14.7%	12.1%	7.9%	1.53×	8.27
Fiorentina to score 3+ in a row	9.7%	5.6%	10.0%	0.56×	17.90

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta corners (+3.5)	83.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Fiorentina corners (+3.5)	83.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Atalanta corners (+2.5)	76.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Fiorentina corners (+2.5)	76.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Atalanta corners (+1.5)	66.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Fiorentina corners (+1.5)	66.9%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Fiorentina corners (-1.5)	33.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Atalanta corners (-1.5)	33.2%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Fiorentina corners (-2.5)	23.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Atalanta corners (-2.5)	23.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Fiorentina corners (-3.5)	16.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Atalanta corners (-3.5)	16.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	53.0%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	20.3%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.5%	83.0%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	79.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	72.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	63.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	53.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 7.5 corners	42.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	36.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	27.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	20.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	14.5%	17.0%	—	—	5.90

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.7%	11.5%	11.8%	0.97×	8.72
1-2	9.0%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.51
0-1	7.5%	7.4%	9.1%	0.82×	13.51
2-1	7.7%	7.4%	9.4%	0.78×	13.51
0-2	6.3%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
1-0	6.4%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
1-3	5.0%	7.4%	2.0%	3.64×	13.51
2-2	6.4%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.51
0-0	4.5%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.29
0-3	3.5%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	58.30
0-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.31
1-4	2.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.39×	58.31
2-0	4.6%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.29
2-3	3.6%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.30
2-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.31
3-0	2.2%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
3-1	3.6%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-2	3.1%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.30
3-3	1.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.31
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.31
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
Any other score	4.3%	1.7%	2.7%	0.62×	58.29

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (2nd half DNB)	55.4%	59.5%	46.3%	1.28×	1.68
Fiorentina (2nd half DNB)	44.6%	40.5%	53.7%	0.75×	2.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta leading at HT (DNB)	55.9%	56.1%	48.7%	1.15×	1.78
Fiorentina leading at HT (DNB)	44.1%	43.9%	51.3%	0.86×	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or Atalanta (12)	76.4%	75.5%	73.6%	1.03×	1.32
Atalanta or draw (X2)	67.2%	69.6%	59.9%	1.16×	1.44
Fiorentina or draw (1X)	56.4%	57.0%	66.4%	0.86×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta or draw at HT	72.5%	74.7%	71.6%	1.04×	1.34
Fiorentina or draw at HT	65.0%	67.0%	73.0%	0.92×	1.49
Fiorentina or Atalanta at HT	62.5%	60.9%	55.3%	1.10×	1.64

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta or draw (1UP)	67.2%	76.3%	65.4%	1.17×	1.31
Fiorentina or draw (1UP)	56.4%	62.9%	71.7%	0.88×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta or draw in 2nd half	70.7%	73.9%	65.0%	1.14×	1.35
Fiorentina or Atalanta in 2nd half	65.6%	65.8%	65.1%	1.01×	1.52
Fiorentina or draw in 2nd half	63.6%	63.8%	69.8%	0.91×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.0%	58.8%	63.6%	0.92×	1.70
Neither half drawn	41.0%	41.2%	36.4%	1.13×	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (DNB)	57.1%	58.1%	45.5%	1.28×	1.72
Fiorentina (DNB)	42.9%	41.9%	54.5%	0.77×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to score first	51.6%	53.4%	43.5%	1.23×	1.87
Fiorentina to score first	43.9%	41.7%	48.7%	0.86×	2.40
No goal scored	4.5%	4.4%	7.9%	0.55×	22.98

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.9%	56.6%	49.2%	1.15×	1.77
Not both teams to score	38.1%	43.4%	50.8%	0.85×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	51.1%	47.2%	37.5%	1.26×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	29.2%	33.3%	40.1%	0.83×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	10.7%	12.4%	11.8%	1.05×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.1%	79.8%	86.4%	0.92×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.9%	20.2%	13.6%	1.49×	4.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.2%	67.2%	74.7%	0.90×	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.8%	32.8%	25.3%	1.30×	3.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.3%	54.3%	62.6%	0.87×	1.84
Both score 2nd half only	23.5%	21.0%	20.6%	1.02×	4.77
Both score 1st half only	17.9%	15.1%	12.2%	1.24×	6.64
Both score in both halves	8.3%	6.8%	4.9%	1.40×	14.61

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	73.8%	79.8%	83.0%	0.96×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	26.2%	20.2%	17.0%	1.19×	4.94

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.9%	59.6%	52.7%	1.13×	1.68
A half without a goal	38.1%	40.4%	47.3%	0.85×	2.47

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.9%	42.2%	48.5%	0.87×	2.37
4-6 goals	33.8%	30.7%	23.9%	1.29×	3.25
0-1 goals	18.3%	20.2%	26.9%	0.75×	4.95
7+ goals	3.9%	1.8%	1.0%	1.93×	54.14

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to score exactly 1	31.3%	33.8%	34.6%	0.98×	2.96
Atalanta to score exactly 2	26.3%	27.4%	23.3%	1.18×	3.65
Atalanta to score 3+	23.7%	22.3%	11.9%	1.87×	4.49
Atalanta to score exactly 0	18.6%	19.6%	30.3%	0.64×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score exactly 1	34.2%	32.6%	31.9%	1.02×	3.07
Fiorentina to score exactly 2	24.5%	23.3%	24.9%	0.94×	4.29
Fiorentina to score exactly 0	24.0%	23.3%	28.3%	0.82×	4.29
Fiorentina to score 3+	17.4%	18.8%	15.2%	1.24×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	37.5%	39.1%	44.7%	0.87×	2.56
Atalanta leading at HT	35.0%	33.0%	27.0%	1.22×	3.03
Fiorentina leading at HT	27.5%	25.3%	28.4%	0.89×	3.96

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta -1: 1	56.4%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Atalanta -1: 2	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Atalanta -1: X	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (0:1)	67.2%	65.2%	59.9%	1.09×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	17.8%	17.8%	22.7%	0.79×	5.61
Fiorentina (0:1)	15.0%	13.7%	17.6%	0.78×	7.28

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (0:2)	85.0%	87.1%	82.4%	1.06×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.5%	7.7%	10.0%	0.77×	13.03
Fiorentina (0:2)	5.5%	7.7%	7.6%	1.00×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (0:3)	94.5%	92.7%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.8%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.06
Fiorentina (0:3)	1.6%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (0:4)	98.4%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	82.03
Fiorentina (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.12

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (1:0)	56.4%	58.3%	66.4%	0.88×	1.72
Atalanta (1:0)	22.7%	21.7%	14.5%	1.50×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	20.9%	21.7%	19.2%	1.13×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2:0)	77.3%	80.5%	85.5%	0.94×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	13.1%	10.3%	8.7%	1.18×	9.72
Atalanta (2:0)	9.6%	6.4%	5.9%	1.09×	15.64

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.0%	45.9%	46.5%	0.99×	2.18
1st half highest scoring	33.3%	29.4%	26.9%	1.09×	3.40
Halves equal	23.7%	24.4%	26.8%	0.91×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede	81.4%	80.9%	69.7%	1.16×	1.24
Fiorentina clean sheet	18.6%	19.1%	30.3%	0.63×	5.23

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 1st half	54.3%	55.5%	41.0%	1.35×	1.80
Fiorentina clean sheet in 1st half	45.7%	44.5%	59.0%	0.75×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 2nd half	59.2%	54.7%	50.2%	1.09×	1.83
Fiorentina clean sheet in 2nd half	40.8%	45.3%	49.8%	0.91×	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 6.5 corners	81.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Fiorentina over 2.5 corners	73.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Fiorentina under 5.5 corners	71.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Fiorentina under 4.5 corners	58.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Fiorentina over 3.5 corners	56.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Fiorentina under 3.5 corners	43.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Fiorentina over 4.5 corners	41.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Fiorentina over 5.5 corners	28.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Fiorentina under 2.5 corners	26.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Fiorentina over 6.5 corners	18.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 3.5 goals	94.3%	92.2%	95.3%	0.97×	1.08
Fiorentina under 2.5 goals	82.6%	82.2%	84.8%	0.97×	1.22
Fiorentina over 0.5 goals	76.0%	77.7%	71.7%	1.08×	1.29
Fiorentina under 1.5 goals	58.2%	58.6%	60.1%	0.98×	1.71
Fiorentina over 1.5 goals	41.8%	41.4%	39.9%	1.04×	2.42
Fiorentina under 0.5 goals	24.0%	22.3%	28.3%	0.79×	4.49
Fiorentina over 2.5 goals	17.4%	17.8%	15.2%	1.17×	5.63
Fiorentina over 3.5 goals	5.7%	7.8%	4.7%	1.67×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 1st half	85.8%	90.1%	89.4%	1.01×	1.11
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 1st half	51.8%	50.3%	57.9%	0.87×	1.99
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 1st half	48.2%	49.7%	42.1%	1.18×	2.01
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 1st half	14.2%	9.9%	10.6%	0.93×	10.08

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina scores equally in both	37.7%	37.8%	41.6%	0.91×	2.64
Fiorentina scores more in 2nd half	34.5%	33.3%	36.4%	0.91×	3.01
Fiorentina scores more in 1st half	27.8%	27.9%	22.1%	1.26×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (home no bet)	64.9%	60.1%	56.0%	1.07×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	35.1%	39.9%	44.0%	0.91×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina even goals	52.9%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Fiorentina odd goals	47.1%	49.3%	43.7%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	23.6%	24.3%	33.9%	0.72×	4.11
HT 0-1	18.5%	18.5%	18.0%	1.03×	5.40
HT 1-0	15.6%	18.5%	18.5%	1.00×	5.42
HT 1-1	12.2%	11.0%	10.3%	1.07×	9.11
HT 0-2	7.3%	6.9%	5.4%	1.29×	14.46
Any other HT score	7.3%	6.9%	3.3%	2.07×	14.46
HT 2-0	5.1%	6.9%	5.7%	1.20×	14.50
HT 1-2	4.8%	2.4%	2.6%	0.91×	41.90
HT 2-1	4.0%	2.4%	2.4%	1.00×	41.95
HT 2-2	1.6%	2.4%	0.7%	3.31×	42.10

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta at HT / Atalanta at FT	27.2%	27.2%	19.0%	1.43×	3.67
Fiorentina at HT / Fiorentina at FT	19.5%	16.8%	22.0%	0.76×	5.95
Draw at HT / Atalanta at FT	13.6%	12.7%	12.9%	0.98×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.9%	12.6%	16.0%	0.79×	7.91
Draw at HT / Fiorentina at FT	11.0%	12.6%	16.0%	0.79×	7.92
Atalanta at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.1%	5.9%	1.04×	16.49
Fiorentina at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.1%	4.8%	1.27×	16.49
Fiorentina at HT / Atalanta at FT	2.8%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.87
Atalanta at HT / Fiorentina at FT	2.3%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.89

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to score last	51.6%	52.0%	44.2%	1.18×	1.92
Fiorentina to score last	43.9%	40.2%	48.0%	0.84×	2.49
No goal scored	4.5%	4.4%	7.9%	0.55×	22.98

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.5%	95.6%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Atalanta to lead by 1 at any time	61.2%	61.2%	50.3%	1.22×	1.63
Fiorentina to lead by 1 at any time	52.1%	50.8%	55.4%	0.92×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.8%	50.8%	44.0%	1.16×	1.97
Atalanta to lead by 2 at any time	30.3%	29.7%	20.2%	1.47×	3.37
Fiorentina to lead by 2 at any time	21.9%	19.5%	24.3%	0.81×	5.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.8%	14.9%	15.1%	0.99×	6.70
Atalanta to lead by 3 at any time	12.2%	10.5%	6.5%	1.63×	9.52
Fiorentina to lead by 3 at any time	7.5%	6.7%	8.7%	0.77×	14.95

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina most corners	44.4%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Atalanta most corners	44.1%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.0%	87.4%	89.1%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.7%	78.7%	72.3%	1.09×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.2%	78.7%	80.6%	0.98×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.1%	72.3%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.3%	63.3%	61.6%	1.03×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.8%	59.1%	67.5%	0.88×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.1%	59.1%	47.3%	1.25×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.6%	53.2%	45.2%	1.18×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.9%	43.6%	48.5%	0.90×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.7%	39.2%	36.7%	1.07×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.5%	39.2%	44.1%	0.89×	2.55
4-6 goals	33.8%	35.2%	23.9%	1.47×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.2%	30.2%	21.7%	1.39×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.4%	18.8%	10.8%	1.75×	5.31
7+ goals	3.9%	2.6%	1.0%	2.68×	39.08

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta never behind	43.5%	48.6%	44.6%	1.09×	2.06
Fiorentina never behind	34.3%	36.3%	49.7%	0.73×	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	48.5%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.8%	51.7%	56.6%	0.91×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	47.2%	48.3%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	51.9%	50.7%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	48.1%	49.3%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.5%	95.4%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.5%	92.3%	96.9%	0.95×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.7%	82.3%	73.1%	1.13×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	79.7%	77.3%	88.4%	0.87×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	62.3%	61.7%	75.3%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	60.1%	61.7%	48.1%	1.28×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	39.9%	38.3%	51.9%	0.74×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	37.7%	38.3%	24.7%	1.55×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	20.3%	22.7%	11.6%	1.96×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	18.3%	17.7%	26.9%	0.66×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	9.5%	7.7%	3.1%	2.49×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	4.5%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.83

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.8%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.3%	86.8%	96.6%	0.90×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.6%	75.9%	64.2%	1.18×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	75.4%	75.9%	86.7%	0.88×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.4%	51.9%	67.7%	0.77×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.6%	48.1%	32.3%	1.49×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	24.6%	24.1%	13.3%	1.81×	4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.4%	24.1%	35.8%	0.67×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.7%	13.2%	3.4%	3.90×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.2%	2.8%	1.0%	2.88×	35.55

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	82.3%	85.8%	91.3%	0.94×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.4%	78.5%	66.1%	1.19×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	57.7%	63.8%	70.3%	0.91×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	42.3%	36.2%	29.7%	1.22×	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.6%	21.5%	33.9%	0.63×	4.64
Over 2.5 in 1st half	17.7%	14.2%	8.7%	1.63×	7.02

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.1%	82.9%	78.7%	1.05×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.6%	79.7%	82.2%	0.97×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.4%	53.2%	56.6%	0.94×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.6%	46.8%	43.4%	1.08×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.4%	20.3%	17.8%	1.14×	4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.9%	17.1%	21.3%	0.80×	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to score in both halves	74.1%	74.0%	75.7%	0.98×	1.35
Atalanta not to score in both halves	67.8%	70.1%	78.5%	0.89×	1.43
Atalanta to score in both halves	32.2%	29.9%	21.5%	1.39×	3.34
Fiorentina to score in both halves	25.9%	26.0%	24.3%	1.07×	3.84

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.9%	60.2%	49.2%	1.22×	1.66
Only Atalanta scores	19.5%	16.0%	20.6%	0.78×	6.23
Only Fiorentina scores	14.2%	11.0%	22.6%	0.49×	9.06
Neither team scores	4.5%	4.6%	7.9%	0.59×	21.60

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.6%	22.6%	25.1%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.4%	17.5%	13.3%	1.32×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.9%	12.1%	19.1%	0.63×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	10.8%	12.1%	8.6%	1.41×	8.25
6 or more goals	9.5%	7.6%	3.1%	2.45×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	4.5%	4.5%	7.9%	0.57×	22.35

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.1%	35.7%	36.4%	0.98×	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	24.6%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.65
No goals in 1st half	23.6%	21.5%	33.9%	0.63×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	17.7%	15.6%	8.7%	1.79×	6.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.6%	44.9%	43.4%	1.04×	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.5%	33.7%	35.5%	0.95×	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	18.9%	16.7%	21.3%	0.79×	5.98

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win both halves	91.9%	94.1%	90.0%	1.05×	1.06
Atalanta not to win both halves	87.3%	88.0%	91.2%	0.96×	1.14
Atalanta to win both halves	12.7%	12.0%	8.8%	1.36×	8.31
Fiorentina to win both halves	8.1%	5.9%	10.0%	0.59×	17.01

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to win either half	58.6%	59.2%	48.4%	1.22×	1.69
Fiorentina to win neither half	51.3%	54.2%	46.6%	1.16×	1.84
Fiorentina to win either half	48.7%	45.8%	53.4%	0.86×	2.19
Atalanta to win neither half	41.4%	40.8%	51.6%	0.79×	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win to nil	85.8%	88.1%	77.4%	1.14×	1.14
Atalanta not to win to nil	80.5%	83.1%	79.5%	1.05×	1.20
Atalanta to win to nil	19.5%	16.9%	20.6%	0.82×	5.91
Fiorentina to win to nil	14.2%	11.9%	22.6%	0.53×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.6%	24.1%	26.4%	0.91×	4.15
Atalanta by 1	20.9%	24.1%	19.2%	1.25×	4.15
Fiorentina by 1	17.8%	17.0%	22.7%	0.75×	5.87
Atalanta by 2	13.1%	11.8%	8.7%	1.35×	8.51
Fiorentina by 2	9.5%	7.2%	10.0%	0.72×	13.90
Atalanta by 3+	9.6%	7.2%	5.9%	1.23×	13.90
Fiorentina by 3+	5.5%	7.2%	7.6%	0.94×	13.91