Fiorentina v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 December 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Fiorentina

14:00 UTC

Cagliari

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 1,083h before kick-off

Fiorentina win

43.2%

model 42.2%

Draw

27.3%

model 25.3%

Cagliari win

29.5%

model 32.5%

432729

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.0%
1-0 9.4%
2-1 8.9%
0-1 8.1%
1-2 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.1%	Under 2.5	47.9%
BTTS yes	55.7%	BTTS no	44.3%
Fiorentina 1+	77.4%	Fiorentina 2+	43.8%
Cagliari 1+	72.0%	Cagliari 2+	36.4%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.27. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

89/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 49%

56.3% fair odds 1.78

moderate signal · 1019 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Cagliari not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 79%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Fiorentina have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Cagliari have allowed 1.84.
At home Fiorentina average 1.63 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Fiorentina have an estimated 43.2% win probability, against 29.5% for Cagliari and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.49 for Fiorentina and 1.27 for Cagliari.

Why Fiorentina

Fiorentina have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Cagliari have allowed 1.84. At home Fiorentina average 1.63 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.49 to 1.27. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Cagliari can win

Cagliari have created 1.58 xG a match over their last five while Fiorentina have allowed 1.72. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Cagliari average 1.88 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.43 expected goal involvements a match against 0.67.

Key players

Fiorentina's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Moise Kean (0.52), Franco Mastantuono (0.47), Alieu Njie (0.44). Cagliari's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Daniel Maldini (0.35), Sebastiano Esposito (0.33), Paul Mendy (0.30).

Availability

2 of Fiorentina's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Fiorentina's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Cagliari's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Cagliari's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Fiorentina: 46% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.21 xG a match from set pieces. Cagliari: 40% possession, 10.0 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces. Fiorentina's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Fiorentina are the model's most likely outcome at 43.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.0%. Confidence 89/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWDLLLWDLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.6 xG conceded 18 from 17.2 xG

Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLWWWDL last 10 scored 10 from 15.8 xG conceded 11 from 18.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	422532	1.49–1.27	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	482527	1.57–1.11	1-1 12%	50%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to win	46.4%	47.4%	40.0%	1.18×	2.11
Cagliari to win	28.9%	27.9%	33.7%	0.83×	3.58
Draw	24.7%	24.4%	26.4%	0.92×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina & not both score	23.8%	21.8%	22.6%	0.97×	4.58
Fiorentina & both teams score	22.6%	21.8%	17.5%	1.24×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.57
Cagliari & both teams score	14.7%	13.3%	13.2%	1.00×	7.53
Cagliari & not both score	14.2%	13.3%	20.6%	0.65×	7.53
Draw & not both score	6.0%	8.3%	7.9%	1.05×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina & over 1.5	36.8%	34.9%	29.9%	1.17×	2.87
Fiorentina & under 3.5	30.8%	30.8%	29.6%	1.04×	3.25
Fiorentina & over 2.5	29.1%	26.1%	23.3%	1.12×	3.84
Cagliari & over 1.5	21.6%	21.6%	24.6%	0.88×	4.63
Cagliari & under 3.5	20.5%	21.6%	26.3%	0.82×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.7%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.7%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Fiorentina & under 2.5	17.4%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Cagliari & over 2.5	17.2%	18.0%	18.1%	0.99×	5.56
Fiorentina & over 3.5	15.6%	18.0%	10.6%	1.70×	5.56
Cagliari & under 2.5	11.7%	12.8%	15.6%	0.82×	7.79
Fiorentina & under 1.5	9.7%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Cagliari & under 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Cagliari & over 3.5	8.3%	7.9%	7.5%	1.06×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.0%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (1UP)	62.1%	62.8%	55.3%	1.14×	1.59
Cagliari (1UP)	47.0%	43.9%	50.5%	0.87×	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2UP)	46.4%	50.0%	41.8%	1.20×	2.00
Cagliari (2UP)	28.9%	25.3%	36.2%	0.70×	3.95

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to win 2nd half	36.3%	36.1%	35.0%	1.03×	2.77
2nd half drawn	34.9%	34.4%	35.0%	0.98×	2.91
Cagliari to win 2nd half	28.8%	25.8%	30.2%	0.86×	3.88

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.8%	84.4%	85.1%	0.99×	1.19
Cagliari over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.6%	52.6%	50.0%	1.05×	1.90
Cagliari under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.4%	47.4%	50.0%	0.95×	2.11
Cagliari over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.2%	15.6%	14.9%	1.05×	6.40

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.0%	75.5%	81.5%	0.93×	1.32
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 2nd half	58.5%	58.0%	53.7%	1.08×	1.72
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 2nd half	41.5%	42.0%	46.3%	0.91×	2.38
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 2nd half	22.0%	24.5%	18.5%	1.32×	4.08

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (+2.5)	90.1%	92.1%	92.3%	1.00×	1.09
Cagliari (+1.5)	76.1%	78.5%	82.5%	0.95×	1.27
Fiorentina (+0.5)	71.1%	73.6%	66.3%	1.11×	1.36
Cagliari (+0.5)	53.6%	52.4%	60.0%	0.87×	1.91
Fiorentina (-0.5)	46.4%	47.6%	40.0%	1.19×	2.10
Cagliari (-0.5)	28.9%	26.4%	33.7%	0.78×	3.79
Fiorentina (-1.5)	23.9%	21.5%	17.5%	1.23×	4.65
Fiorentina (-2.5)	9.9%	7.9%	7.7%	1.03×	12.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede	79.8%	78.8%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
Cagliari clean sheet	20.2%	21.2%	28.4%	0.75×	4.72

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede in 1st half	51.2%	50.5%	42.1%	1.20×	1.98
Cagliari clean sheet in 1st half	48.8%	49.5%	57.9%	0.85×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede in 2nd half	58.5%	57.5%	53.7%	1.07×	1.74
Cagliari clean sheet in 2nd half	41.5%	42.5%	46.3%	0.92×	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 6.5 corners	88.6%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Cagliari under 5.5 corners	80.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Cagliari under 4.5 corners	69.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Cagliari over 2.5 corners	64.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Cagliari under 3.5 corners	53.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Cagliari over 3.5 corners	46.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Cagliari under 2.5 corners	35.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Cagliari over 4.5 corners	30.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Cagliari over 5.5 corners	19.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Cagliari over 6.5 corners	11.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 3.5 goals	96.5%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Cagliari under 2.5 goals	87.8%	87.8%	88.1%	1.00×	1.14
Cagliari over 0.5 goals	70.1%	71.9%	69.6%	1.03×	1.39
Cagliari under 1.5 goals	65.9%	68.0%	65.0%	1.05×	1.47
Cagliari over 1.5 goals	34.1%	32.0%	35.0%	0.92×	3.12
Cagliari under 0.5 goals	29.9%	28.1%	30.4%	0.93×	3.55
Cagliari over 2.5 goals	12.2%	12.2%	11.9%	1.02×	8.20
Cagliari over 3.5 goals	3.5%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.86

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 1.5 in 1st half	92.1%	93.9%	89.9%	1.04×	1.07
Cagliari under 0.5 in 1st half	63.0%	63.6%	58.8%	1.08×	1.57
Cagliari over 0.5 in 1st half	37.0%	36.4%	41.2%	0.88×	2.75
Cagliari over 1.5 in 1st half	7.9%	6.1%	10.1%	0.61×	16.35

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari scores equally in both	41.1%	43.4%	43.4%	1.00×	2.31
Cagliari scores more in 2nd half	38.5%	37.4%	32.8%	1.14×	2.68
Cagliari scores more in 1st half	20.5%	21.9%	23.9%	0.92×	4.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (away no bet)	65.3%	66.3%	60.2%	1.10×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	34.7%	33.7%	39.8%	0.85×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari even goals	54.5%	52.6%	55.5%	0.95×	1.90
Cagliari odd goals	45.5%	47.4%	44.5%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.0%	82.8%	87.3%	0.95×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.0%	17.2%	12.7%	1.35×	5.81

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.4%	68.3%	60.2%	1.13×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.6%	31.7%	39.8%	0.80×	3.15

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.3%	55.2%	53.4%	1.03×	1.81
Fiorentina to score 2+ in a row	38.8%	36.7%	31.7%	1.16×	2.73
Cagliari to score 2+ in a row	25.2%	25.1%	27.8%	0.91×	3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.7%	19.6%	17.9%	1.09×	5.10
Fiorentina to score 3+ in a row	14.3%	12.1%	10.1%	1.20×	8.27
Cagliari to score 3+ in a row	6.8%	5.6%	7.9%	0.70×	18.00

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina corners (+3.5)	93.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Fiorentina corners (+2.5)	88.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Fiorentina corners (+1.5)	82.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Cagliari corners (+3.5)	66.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Cagliari corners (+2.5)	56.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Fiorentina corners (-1.5)	54.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Cagliari corners (+1.5)	45.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Fiorentina corners (-2.5)	43.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Fiorentina corners (-3.5)	33.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Cagliari corners (-1.5)	17.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Cagliari corners (-2.5)	11.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Cagliari corners (-3.5)	6.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.9%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	26.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	80.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	73.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	65.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	56.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	54.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	45.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	43.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	34.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	26.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	19.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.7%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.72
1-0	9.7%	7.4%	10.2%	0.72×	13.50
2-1	9.3%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
0-1	7.3%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.50
1-2	7.1%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-0	7.7%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.50
0-0	6.0%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.51
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
3-1	5.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.29
0-2	4.4%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.29
0-3	1.8%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.32
1-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.30
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.31
2-3	2.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
3-0	4.1%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
3-2	3.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-0	1.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.31
4-1	2.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
Any other score	3.1%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2nd half DNB)	55.8%	59.4%	53.7%	1.11×	1.68
Cagliari (2nd half DNB)	44.2%	40.6%	46.3%	0.88×	2.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina leading at HT (DNB)	64.0%	65.9%	51.1%	1.29×	1.52
Cagliari leading at HT (DNB)	36.0%	34.1%	48.9%	0.70×	2.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or Cagliari (12)	75.3%	75.6%	73.6%	1.03×	1.32
Fiorentina or draw (1X)	71.1%	72.1%	66.3%	1.09×	1.39
Cagliari or draw (X2)	53.6%	52.6%	60.0%	0.88×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or draw at HT	79.1%	79.2%	72.8%	1.09×	1.26
Cagliari or draw at HT	62.7%	61.6%	71.6%	0.86×	1.62
Fiorentina or Cagliari at HT	58.2%	57.1%	55.4%	1.03×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or draw (1UP)	71.1%	79.5%	71.6%	1.11×	1.26
Cagliari or draw (1UP)	53.6%	58.8%	65.5%	0.90×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or draw in 2nd half	71.2%	74.2%	69.8%	1.06×	1.35
Fiorentina or Cagliari in 2nd half	65.2%	65.6%	65.0%	1.01×	1.52
Cagliari or draw in 2nd half	63.7%	63.9%	65.0%	0.98×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.1%	61.4%	63.5%	0.97×	1.63
Neither half drawn	37.9%	38.6%	36.5%	1.06×	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (DNB)	61.6%	62.7%	54.3%	1.15×	1.60
Cagliari (DNB)	38.4%	37.3%	45.7%	0.82×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score first	53.5%	53.4%	48.6%	1.10×	1.87
Cagliari to score first	40.5%	41.6%	43.6%	0.95×	2.41
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.49

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.0%	55.0%	49.2%	1.12×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.0%	45.0%	50.8%	0.89×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.3%	41.6%	37.4%	1.11×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	35.1%	38.4%	40.1%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	11.7%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.8%	82.6%	86.5%	0.95×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.2%	17.4%	13.5%	1.29×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.2%	67.4%	74.9%	0.90×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.8%	32.6%	25.1%	1.30×	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.1%	59.9%	62.7%	0.96×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	25.0%	21.2%	20.3%	1.04×	4.73
Both score 1st half only	13.1%	10.7%	12.3%	0.87×	9.35
Both score in both halves	5.8%	6.8%	4.9%	1.37×	14.77

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.1%	83.2%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.9%	16.8%	17.1%	0.99×	5.94

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.7%	57.3%	52.8%	1.09×	1.75
A half without a goal	44.3%	42.7%	47.2%	0.90×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.1%	47.2%	48.4%	0.97×	2.12
4-6 goals	28.5%	26.6%	23.8%	1.12×	3.76
0-1 goals	23.0%	22.9%	27.0%	0.85×	4.37
7+ goals	2.5%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.26

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score exactly 1	36.1%	35.9%	34.7%	1.03×	2.78
Cagliari to score exactly 0	29.9%	27.4%	30.4%	0.90×	3.65
Cagliari to score exactly 2	21.8%	22.3%	23.2%	0.96×	4.49
Cagliari to score 3+	12.2%	12.9%	11.9%	1.08×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score exactly 1	32.3%	32.6%	32.1%	1.01×	3.07
Fiorentina to score exactly 2	25.8%	26.5%	24.8%	1.07×	3.77
Fiorentina to score 3+	21.6%	23.3%	15.0%	1.55×	4.29
Fiorentina to score exactly 0	20.2%	23.3%	28.4%	0.82×	4.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.8%	42.9%	44.6%	0.96×	2.33
Fiorentina leading at HT	37.3%	38.4%	28.4%	1.35×	2.60
Cagliari leading at HT	20.9%	20.8%	27.2%	0.77×	4.80

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina -1: 2	53.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Fiorentina -1: 1	23.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Fiorentina -1: X	22.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:1)	53.6%	51.3%	60.0%	0.86×	1.95
Fiorentina (0:1)	23.9%	24.2%	17.5%	1.38×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	22.5%	24.2%	22.6%	1.07×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:2)	76.1%	79.3%	82.5%	0.96×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.0%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.09
Fiorentina (0:2)	9.9%	7.7%	7.7%	1.00×	13.02

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:3)	90.1%	92.7%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.5%	5.8%	4.7%	1.24×	17.22
Fiorentina (0:3)	3.3%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.05

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:4)	96.7%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.4%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	81.84
Fiorentina (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.00

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (1:0)	71.1%	72.4%	66.3%	1.09×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	17.0%	17.1%	19.4%	0.88×	5.85
Cagliari (1:0)	11.9%	12.7%	14.4%	0.88×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2:0)	88.1%	88.5%	85.6%	1.03×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.0%	6.4%	8.7%	0.74×	15.68
Cagliari (2:0)	3.8%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.59

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.8%	48.8%	46.2%	1.06×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.7%	26.2%	27.0%	0.97×	3.81
Halves equal	24.5%	24.4%	26.9%	0.91×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede	70.1%	73.1%	69.6%	1.05×	1.37
Fiorentina clean sheet	29.9%	26.9%	30.4%	0.88×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina clean sheet in 1st half	63.0%	63.5%	58.8%	1.08×	1.57
Fiorentina to concede in 1st half	37.0%	36.5%	41.2%	0.88×	2.74

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 2nd half	52.6%	52.7%	50.0%	1.05×	1.90
Fiorentina clean sheet in 2nd half	47.4%	47.3%	50.0%	0.95×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina over 2.5 corners	84.9%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Fiorentina over 3.5 corners	73.1%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Fiorentina under 6.5 corners	65.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Fiorentina over 4.5 corners	59.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Fiorentina under 5.5 corners	53.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Fiorentina over 5.5 corners	46.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Fiorentina under 4.5 corners	40.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Fiorentina over 6.5 corners	34.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Fiorentina under 3.5 corners	26.9%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Fiorentina under 2.5 corners	15.1%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 3.5 goals	92.1%	92.2%	95.3%	0.97×	1.08
Fiorentina over 0.5 goals	79.8%	77.7%	71.6%	1.09×	1.29
Fiorentina under 2.5 goals	78.4%	77.7%	85.0%	0.91×	1.29
Fiorentina under 1.5 goals	52.5%	53.2%	60.3%	0.88×	1.88
Fiorentina over 1.5 goals	47.5%	46.8%	39.7%	1.18×	2.14
Fiorentina over 2.5 goals	21.6%	22.3%	15.0%	1.48×	4.49
Fiorentina under 0.5 goals	20.2%	22.3%	28.4%	0.78×	4.49
Fiorentina over 3.5 goals	7.9%	7.8%	4.7%	1.66×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 1st half	83.8%	83.8%	89.3%	0.94×	1.19
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 1st half	51.2%	50.3%	42.1%	1.20×	1.99
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 1st half	48.8%	49.7%	57.9%	0.86×	2.01
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 1st half	16.2%	16.2%	10.7%	1.51×	6.17

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina scores more in 2nd half	37.0%	37.9%	36.2%	1.05×	2.64
Fiorentina scores equally in both	35.2%	37.9%	41.7%	0.91×	2.64
Fiorentina scores more in 1st half	27.8%	27.8%	22.2%	1.25×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (home no bet)	53.9%	51.4%	56.0%	0.92×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	46.1%	48.6%	44.0%	1.10×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina even goals	52.0%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Fiorentina odd goals	48.0%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.7%	33.3%	33.8%	0.99×	3.00
HT 1-0	22.1%	24.4%	18.4%	1.33×	4.10
HT 0-1	14.2%	11.0%	18.1%	0.61×	9.06
HT 1-1	10.2%	11.0%	10.3%	1.06×	9.09
HT 2-0	7.9%	6.9%	5.8%	1.20×	14.48
Any other HT score	4.8%	2.4%	3.4%	0.71×	41.97
HT 2-1	3.7%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.04
HT 0-2	3.3%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.06
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.13
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	0.7%	3.28×	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina at HT / Fiorentina at FT	29.0%	27.3%	22.0%	1.24×	3.66
Draw at HT / Fiorentina at FT	15.2%	16.7%	15.9%	1.05×	5.99
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.6%	12.7%	16.1%	0.79×	7.90
Cagliari at HT / Cagliari at FT	14.4%	12.7%	19.1%	0.66×	7.90
Draw at HT / Cagliari at FT	12.0%	12.6%	12.9%	0.98×	7.91
Fiorentina at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	4.7%	1.28×	16.66
Cagliari at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.61
Fiorentina at HT / Cagliari at FT	2.4%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.68
Cagliari at HT / Fiorentina at FT	2.2%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.68

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score last	53.5%	52.2%	48.2%	1.08×	1.92
Cagliari to score last	40.5%	39.9%	44.0%	0.91×	2.51
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.49

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.0%	92.7%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
Fiorentina to lead by 1 at any time	62.1%	61.4%	55.3%	1.11×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.8%	44.6%	43.6%	1.02×	2.24
Cagliari to lead by 1 at any time	47.0%	44.5%	50.5%	0.88×	2.25
Fiorentina to lead by 2 at any time	30.6%	29.8%	23.9%	1.25×	3.36
Cagliari to lead by 2 at any time	17.5%	14.9%	20.2%	0.74×	6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.4%	14.9%	15.1%	0.99×	6.69
Fiorentina to lead by 3 at any time	12.2%	10.5%	8.8%	1.19×	9.57
Cagliari to lead by 3 at any time	5.3%	6.7%	6.5%	1.03×	15.00

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina most corners	64.7%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Cagliari most corners	25.6%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	9.7%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.6%	78.7%	80.8%	0.97×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.5%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.4%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.0%	63.3%	67.5%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	61.7%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.8%	53.2%	47.2%	1.13×	1.88
3-5 goals	46.7%	48.5%	45.2%	1.07×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.1%	48.5%	48.4%	1.00×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.7%	43.6%	44.1%	0.99×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.9%	39.2%	36.8%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.5%	30.2%	23.8%	1.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.4%	24.5%	21.8%	1.13×	4.08
5-6 goals	12.9%	14.8%	10.6%	1.40×	6.75
7+ goals	2.5%	2.6%	1.0%	2.66×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina never behind	47.0%	56.6%	49.5%	1.14×	1.77
Cagliari never behind	31.9%	36.2%	44.7%	0.81×	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.7%	56.6%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.3%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	51.9%	50.6%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	48.1%	49.4%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.0%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.4%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.7%	82.3%	88.6%	0.93×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.0%	77.3%	73.0%	1.06×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.0%	66.3%	75.4%	0.88×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.2%	52.5%	48.1%	1.09×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	46.8%	47.5%	51.9%	0.91×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.0%	33.7%	24.6%	1.37×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	23.0%	22.7%	27.0%	0.84×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	15.3%	17.7%	11.4%	1.55×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	6.6%	7.7%	3.0%	2.57×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.0%	7.7%	7.9%	0.97×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.4%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.8%	92.4%	96.7%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.8%	81.1%	86.8%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.8%	67.5%	64.0%	1.05×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.2%	61.9%	67.8%	0.91×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.8%	38.1%	32.2%	1.18×	2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.2%	32.5%	36.0%	0.90×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.2%	18.9%	13.2%	1.44×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.2%	7.6%	3.3%	2.32×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.6%	2.8%	1.0%	2.86×	35.58

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.4%	89.2%	91.2%	0.98×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.3%	68.5%	66.2%	1.03×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.0%	68.4%	70.1%	0.98×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.0%	31.6%	29.9%	1.05×	3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.7%	31.5%	33.8%	0.93×	3.17
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.6%	10.8%	8.8%	1.23×	9.27

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.4%	83.1%	78.6%	1.06×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.6%	79.4%	82.5%	0.96×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.6%	53.1%	57.0%	0.93×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.4%	46.9%	43.0%	1.09×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.4%	20.6%	17.5%	1.18×	4.85
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.6%	16.9%	21.4%	0.79×	5.93

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to score in both halves	80.5%	84.3%	78.4%	1.08×	1.19
Fiorentina not to score in both halves	70.0%	73.8%	75.8%	0.97×	1.36
Fiorentina to score in both halves	30.0%	26.2%	24.2%	1.08×	3.82
Cagliari to score in both halves	19.5%	15.7%	21.6%	0.73×	6.36

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.0%	58.6%	49.2%	1.19×	1.71
Only Fiorentina scores	23.8%	22.3%	22.6%	0.99×	4.49
Only Cagliari scores	14.2%	11.0%	20.6%	0.54×	9.05
Neither team scores	6.0%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.8%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.9%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.6%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.8%	7.6%	8.5%	0.89×	13.13
6 or more goals	6.6%	7.6%	3.0%	2.53×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.0%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.4%	36.4%	1.03×	2.67
No goals in 1st half	30.7%	35.8%	33.8%	1.06×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	21.4%	21.5%	21.3%	1.01×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	11.6%	10.7%	8.8%	1.22×	9.35

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.4%	45.2%	43.0%	1.05×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	32.0%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	19.6%	16.5%	21.4%	0.77×	6.05

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to win both halves	94.0%	94.1%	91.1%	1.03×	1.06
Fiorentina not to win both halves	86.5%	87.8%	89.9%	0.98×	1.14
Fiorentina to win both halves	13.5%	12.2%	10.1%	1.20×	8.22
Cagliari to win both halves	6.0%	5.9%	8.9%	0.66×	17.08

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to win either half	60.1%	65.0%	53.2%	1.22×	1.54
Cagliari to win neither half	56.3%	59.0%	51.6%	1.14×	1.69
Cagliari to win either half	43.7%	41.0%	48.4%	0.85×	2.44
Fiorentina to win neither half	39.9%	35.0%	46.8%	0.75×	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to win to nil	85.8%	88.1%	79.4%	1.11×	1.14
Fiorentina not to win to nil	76.2%	78.1%	77.4%	1.01×	1.28
Fiorentina to win to nil	23.8%	21.9%	22.6%	0.97×	4.57
Cagliari to win to nil	14.2%	11.9%	20.6%	0.58×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.7%	24.1%	26.4%	0.91×	4.15
Fiorentina by 1	22.5%	24.1%	22.6%	1.07×	4.15
Cagliari by 1	17.0%	17.0%	19.4%	0.88×	5.87
Fiorentina by 2	14.0%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.50
Fiorentina by 3+	9.9%	7.2%	7.7%	0.94×	13.90
Cagliari by 2	8.0%	7.2%	8.7%	0.83×	13.90
Cagliari by 3+	3.8%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.78