Fiorentina v Cremonese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 6
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
13 – 3
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.63
Goals − xG
-1.23 – -0.75
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
41.3%
Draw
31.2%
Cremonese win
27.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.36–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.90–1.11 | 1-1 10% | 58% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 2.23 xGCremonese 0.75 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
Cremonese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 4' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 7' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 11' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Luca Ranieri |
| 12' |
 Cremonese |
Martín Payero | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tommaso Barbieri |
| 13' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dodô |
| 16' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 17' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 18' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabiano Parisi |
| 28' |
Cremonese |
Martín Payero | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 47' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 47' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 47' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dodô |
| 47' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 49' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fabiano Parisi |
| 49' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Cremonese |
Tommaso Barbieri | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 62' |
Fiorentina |
Luca Ranieri | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Fiorentina |
Robin Gosens | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 78' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dodô |
| 81' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 82' |
Cremonese |
Antonio Sanabria | 0.61 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Franco Vázquez |
| 87' |
Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Sanabria |
| 87' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 91' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.93 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 91' |
Fiorentina |
Niccolò Fortini | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 93' |
Cremonese |
Alberto Grassi | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Albert Gudmundsson AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.07 | 0.38 |
| Rolando Mandragora DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Nicolo Fagioli AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.64 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| Pietro Comuzzo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Cher Ndour DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Fabiano Parisi AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.50 |
| Luca Ranieri DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.26 | 0.47 |
| Robin Gosens Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Manor Solomon Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| Niccolò Fortini Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Moise Kean Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommaso Barbieri DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Francesco Folino DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Filippo Terracciano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martín Payero MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jari Vandeputte MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Grassi Sub | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Warren Bondo MC | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Franco Vázquez Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.00 |
| Alessio Zerbin Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Antonio Sanabria Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Faris Moumbagna Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |