Fiorentina v Empoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 27 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 8
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
4 – 2
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+1.34 – +0.53
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
54.6%
Draw
28.8%
Empoli win
16.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 11.3 xG
conceded 14
from 10.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–0.77 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.61–0.91 | 1-0 13% | 46% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 0.66 xGEmpoli 0.47 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
Empoli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Empoli |
Giuseppe Pezzella | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jacopo Fazzini |
| 6' |
 Fiorentina |
Yacine Adli | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 24' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Yacine Adli |
| 35' |
Empoli |
Faustino Anjorin | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Empoli |
Alberto Grassi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Faustino Anjorin |
| 55' |
Empoli |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Empoli |
Jacopo Fazzini | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Saba Goglichidze |
| 57' |
Empoli |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 64' |
Fiorentina |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 65' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 72' |
Fiorentina |
Robin Gosens | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 85' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Empoli |
Viktor Kovalenko | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 96' |
Empoli |
Viktor Kovalenko | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Empoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Mattia Viti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Devis Vásquez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emmanuel Gyasi DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Saba Goglichidze DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Jacopo Fazzini AMC | 83 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.03 | 0.34 |
| Alberto Grassi MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Faustino Anjorin MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Ola Solbakken AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Colombo Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Liam Henderson Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Viktor Kovalenko Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ismael Konaté Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Junior Sambia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.51 |
| Robin Gosens DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Danilo Cataldi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Marí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Albert Gudmundsson FW | 83 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.37 | 0.53 |
| Michael Folorunsho DMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Lucas Beltrán FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Yacine Adli MC | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.13 | 0.47 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Pietro Comuzzo Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amir Richardson Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Fabiano Parisi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolo Fagioli Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |