Fiorentina v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 9
On target
0 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.68 – -0.53
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
41.8%
Draw
25.9%
Genoa win
32.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.32–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.55–1.19 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 0.68 xGGenoa 0.53 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 13' |
 Fiorentina |
Manor Solomon | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 23' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alex Amorim |
| 25' |
Genoa |
Jeff Ekhator | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Colombo |
| 26' |
Fiorentina |
Luca Ranieri | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Dodô |
| 27' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Fiorentina |
Robin Gosens | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 34' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 40' |
Fiorentina |
Robin Gosens | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 44' |
Fiorentina |
Riccardo Braschi | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 45' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 49' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 50' |
Fiorentina |
Riccardo Braschi | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 51' |
Fiorentina |
Luca Ranieri | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 53' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jeff Ekhator |
| 59' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Marcandalli |
| 64' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Amorim |
| 73' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Roberto Piccoli |
| 92' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dodô |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitinha AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Nils Zätterström DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikael Ellertsson DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Justin Bijlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Alex Amorim MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Jeff Ekhator AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Aarón Martín DML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wedtoin Ouedraogo Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mamedi Doucouré Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrizio Masini Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robin Gosens DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Manor Solomon FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Fabiano Parisi FWR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Cher Ndour MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Riccardo Braschi FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Roberto Piccoli Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Marco Brescianini Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albert Gudmundsson Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |