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Fiorentina v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 6 February 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

3–0
1.05 – 0.59 xG
Shots
10 – 11
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 8
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.18
Goals − xG
+1.95 – -0.59
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.60.91.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Luca Ranieri 58' — goalMoise Kean 67' — goalMoise Kean 88' — goal
Fiorentina 1.05 xGInternazionale 0.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Moise Kean 1' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Andrea Colpani 4' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 4' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 19' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Bastoni 21' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Davide Frattesi 28' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Moise Kean 33' — Saved Shot (0.49 xG, Open Play)Dodô 36' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dodô 38' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Hakan Calhanoglu 39' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Direct Freekick)Marcus Thuram 44' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Davide Frattesi 48' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Lautaro Martínez 53' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Luca Ranieri 58' — Goal (0.04 xG, From Corner)Lautaro Martínez 61' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 67' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nicolò Barella 72' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Federico Dimarco 74' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Fabiano Parisi 76' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Marko Arnautovic 80' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 88' — Goal (0.20 xG, Open Play)
Fiorentina attacking right Internazionale attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Yacine Adli
4' Fiorentina Andrea Colpani 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Lucas Beltrán
4' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Edoardo Bove
19' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Henrikh Mkhitaryan
21' Internazionale Alessandro Bastoni 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Henrikh Mkhitaryan
28' Internazionale Davide Frattesi 0.06 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Denzel Dumfries
33' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.49 Open Play Saved Shot Fabiano Parisi
36' Fiorentina Dodô 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Pietro Comuzzo
38' Fiorentina Dodô 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Moise Kean
39' Internazionale Hakan Calhanoglu 0.07 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
44' Internazionale Marcus Thuram 0.09 Open Play Missed Shot Alessandro Bastoni
48' Internazionale Davide Frattesi 0.05 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
53' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Denzel Dumfries
58' Fiorentina Luca Ranieri 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Goal Rolando Mandragora
61' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Marcus Thuram
67' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.04 Open Play Goal Dodô
72' Internazionale Nicolò Barella 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Marko Arnautovic
74' Internazionale Federico Dimarco 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Nicolò Barella
76' Fiorentina Fabiano Parisi 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Robin Gosens
80' Internazionale Marko Arnautovic 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Federico Dimarco
88' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.20 Open Play Right Foot Goal

Players

Internazionale

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Lautaro Martínez FW 90 0 0 3 1 0.16 0.00 0.24
Marcus Thuram FW 90 0 0 1 1 0.09 0.06 0.15
Yann Sommer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.25
Yann Bisseck DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.26
Stefan de Vrij DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.22
Denzel Dumfries DMR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.14 0.12
Hakan Calhanoglu MC 73 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.19
Alessandro Bastoni DC 73 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.09 0.29
Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC 73 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.07 0.29
Davide Frattesi Sub 71 0 0 2 0 0.11 0.00 0.09
Carlos Augusto Sub 70 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Marko Arnautovic Sub 17 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.06 0.11
Nicolò Barella MC 16 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.01 0.11
Federico Dimarco DML 16 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.04 0.11
Mehdi Taremi Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kristjan Asllani Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fiorentina

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Moise Kean FW 90 2 0 5 1 0.83 0.08 0.94
Dodô DR 90 0 1 2 1 0.10 0.04 0.20
Luca Ranieri DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.08
David de Gea GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Lucas Beltrán AMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.20
Pietro Comuzzo DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.04
Robin Gosens DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.10
Fabiano Parisi Sub 74 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.49 0.51
Marin Pongracic Sub 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Amir Richardson Sub 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Rolando Mandragora Sub 74 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.00
Andrea Colpani AMR 16 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Yacine Adli DMC 16 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
Danilo Cataldi DMC 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Edoardo Bove AML 16 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.12
Maat Caprini Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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