Fiorentina v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 12
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 11
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-0.86 – -0.40
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
14.8%
Draw
20.0%
Internazionale win
65.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWDLLLWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.6 xG
conceded 18
from 17.2 xG
Internazionale have scored 28 from 28.3 expected and conceded 13 from 12.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDDWWWWDWW last 10
scored 28
from 28.3 xG
conceded 13
from 12.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.94–2.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.07–2.11 | 1-2 10% | 61% | 58% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 1.86 xGInternazionale 1.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Goal | Nicolò Barella |
| 3' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
 Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 18' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 20' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 21' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Fiorentina |
Marco Brescianini | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marco Brescianini |
| 31' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | David de Gea |
| 32' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 38' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabiano Parisi |
| 47' |
Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 50' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 52' |
Internazionale |
Piotr Zielinski | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 58' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 61' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cher Ndour |
| 70' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Moise Kean |
| 72' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 76' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 79' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cher Ndour |
| 81' |
Fiorentina |
Jack Harrison | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 81' |
Internazionale |
Davide Frattesi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 81' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 91' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Francesco Acerbi |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francesco Pio Esposito FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Denzel Dumfries DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 84 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.31 |
| Marcus Thuram FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Augusto DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francesco Acerbi Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Petar Sucic Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Luis Henrique Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cher Ndour MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.63 | 0.15 | 1.07 |
| Albert Gudmundsson ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.03 | 0.59 |
| Nicolo Fagioli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.44 |
| Marco Brescianini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.36 | 0.58 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| Robin Gosens DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Moise Kean FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.02 | 0.64 |
| Fabiano Parisi MR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.42 |
| Jack Harrison Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Roberto Piccoli Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pietro Comuzzo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |