Fiorentina v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Fiorentina

14:00 UTC

Juventus

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 339h before kick-off

Fiorentina win

26.5%

model 26.1%

Draw

26.4%

model 25.2%

Juventus win

47.1%

model 48.8%

262647

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.0%
0-1 11.1%
1-2 9.4%
0-2 8.7%
1-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	49.4%	Under 2.5	50.6%
BTTS yes	52.3%	BTTS no	47.7%
Fiorentina 1+	66.0%	Fiorentina 2+	29.3%
Juventus 1+	79.2%	Juventus 2+	46.6%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.57. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

98/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Juventus or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 60%

72.7% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Juventus or draw at HT

Double chance 1HT · usually 72%

82.9% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 756 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Juventus carry the stronger rating, 1677 Elo against 1504.
Juventus have created 1.87 xG a match over their last five while Fiorentina have allowed 1.72.
Away from home Juventus average 2.13 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Juventus have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 26.5% for Fiorentina and 26.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.08 for Fiorentina and 1.57 for Juventus.

Why Fiorentina

Fiorentina have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Juventus have allowed 0.58. At home Fiorentina average 1.63 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.4%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Juventus can win

Juventus carry the stronger rating, 1677 Elo against 1504. Juventus have created 1.87 xG a match over their last five while Fiorentina have allowed 1.72. Away from home Juventus average 2.13 xG a match.

Key players

Fiorentina's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Moise Kean (0.51), Franco Mastantuono (0.47), Alieu Njie (0.44). Juventus's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Kenan Yildiz (0.43), Randal Kolo Muani (0.43), Dusan Vlahovic (0.38).

Availability

2 of Fiorentina's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Fiorentina's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Juventus's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of Juventus's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Fiorentina: 46% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.21 xG a match from set pieces. Juventus: 58% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 7.4 faced, 0.62 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Juventus are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.0%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWDLLLWDLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.6 xG conceded 18 from 17.2 xG

Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 6.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLDWWDLWDL last 10 scored 12 from 18.7 xG conceded 12 from 5.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	262549	1.08–1.57	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	282547	1.14–1.55	1-1 12%	50%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to win	59.3%	54.0%	33.6%	1.61×	1.85
Draw	22.3%	24.5%	26.4%	0.93×	4.09
Fiorentina to win	18.4%	19.4%	40.1%	0.48×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus & not both score	33.2%	29.6%	20.6%	1.44×	3.38
Juventus & both teams score	26.0%	25.2%	13.1%	1.91×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	16.2%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.57
Fiorentina & not both score	9.4%	8.3%	22.6%	0.37×	12.00
Fiorentina & both teams score	9.0%	8.3%	17.7%	0.47×	12.00
Draw & not both score	6.1%	8.3%	7.9%	1.06×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus & over 1.5	47.9%	45.1%	24.6%	1.83×	2.22
Juventus & under 3.5	38.4%	34.9%	26.3%	1.33×	2.87
Juventus & over 2.5	37.3%	34.9%	18.0%	1.93×	2.87
Juventus & under 2.5	21.9%	21.6%	15.7%	1.38×	4.63
Juventus & over 3.5	20.8%	21.6%	7.4%	2.92×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	16.7%	18.0%	19.6%	0.92×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.7%	18.0%	19.6%	0.92×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.2%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Fiorentina & under 3.5	14.1%	12.8%	29.6%	0.43×	7.79
Fiorentina & over 1.5	12.8%	12.8%	30.1%	0.43×	7.79
Juventus & under 1.5	11.4%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Fiorentina & over 2.5	10.1%	12.8%	23.4%	0.55×	7.79
Fiorentina & under 2.5	8.3%	7.9%	16.8%	0.47×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.1%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
Fiorentina & under 1.5	5.7%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.6%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.6%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.63
Fiorentina & over 3.5	4.3%	4.8%	10.6%	0.45×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (1UP)	71.5%	75.1%	50.3%	1.49×	1.33
Fiorentina (1UP)	35.8%	33.9%	55.4%	0.61×	2.95

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (2UP)	59.3%	55.0%	36.1%	1.52×	1.82
Fiorentina (2UP)	18.4%	17.2%	42.1%	0.41×	5.81

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to win 2nd half	49.1%	45.7%	30.2%	1.51×	2.19
2nd half drawn	32.3%	34.1%	34.9%	0.98×	2.93
Fiorentina to win 2nd half	18.6%	18.0%	35.0%	0.51×	5.56

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.3%	70.2%	84.8%	0.83×	1.42
Juventus over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.3%	70.1%	50.2%	1.40×	1.43
Juventus under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.7%	29.9%	49.8%	0.60×	3.34
Juventus over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.7%	29.8%	15.2%	1.96×	3.36

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.9%	88.7%	81.1%	1.09×	1.13
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 2nd half	56.8%	58.2%	46.1%	1.26×	1.72
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 2nd half	43.2%	41.8%	53.9%	0.78×	2.40
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.1%	11.3%	18.9%	0.60×	8.86

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (+2.5)	98.4%	96.3%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
Juventus (+1.5)	93.9%	92.1%	82.4%	1.12×	1.09
Juventus (+0.5)	81.6%	82.5%	59.9%	1.38×	1.21
Juventus (-0.5)	59.3%	57.0%	33.6%	1.70×	1.75
Fiorentina (+0.5)	40.7%	43.0%	66.4%	0.65×	2.33
Fiorentina (-0.5)	18.4%	17.5%	40.1%	0.43×	5.73
Fiorentina (-1.5)	6.1%	7.9%	17.6%	0.45×	12.70
Fiorentina (-2.5)	1.6%	3.7%	7.6%	0.48×	27.22

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to concede	60.7%	67.5%	71.7%	0.94×	1.48
Juventus clean sheet	39.3%	32.5%	28.3%	1.15×	3.08

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus clean sheet in 1st half	69.3%	71.5%	57.9%	1.23×	1.40
Juventus to concede in 1st half	30.7%	28.5%	42.1%	0.68×	3.51

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus clean sheet in 2nd half	56.8%	57.6%	46.1%	1.25×	1.74
Juventus to concede in 2nd half	43.2%	42.4%	53.9%	0.79×	2.36

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus over 2.5 corners	79.5%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Juventus under 6.5 corners	73.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Juventus over 3.5 corners	65.3%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Juventus under 5.5 corners	62.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Juventus over 4.5 corners	50.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Juventus under 4.5 corners	49.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Juventus over 5.5 corners	37.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Juventus under 3.5 corners	34.7%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Juventus over 6.5 corners	26.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Juventus under 2.5 corners	20.5%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus under 3.5 goals	88.1%	87.8%	97.1%	0.90×	1.14
Juventus over 0.5 goals	84.5%	81.5%	69.7%	1.17×	1.23
Juventus under 2.5 goals	71.3%	71.8%	88.1%	0.82×	1.39
Juventus over 1.5 goals	55.6%	59.4%	35.1%	1.69×	1.68
Juventus under 1.5 goals	44.4%	40.6%	64.9%	0.63×	2.46
Juventus over 2.5 goals	28.7%	28.2%	11.9%	2.36×	3.55
Juventus under 0.5 goals	15.5%	18.5%	30.3%	0.61×	5.41
Juventus over 3.5 goals	11.9%	12.2%	2.9%	4.25×	8.20

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus under 1.5 in 1st half	82.7%	82.9%	90.0%	0.92×	1.21
Juventus over 0.5 in 1st half	52.7%	55.4%	41.0%	1.35×	1.81
Juventus under 0.5 in 1st half	47.3%	44.6%	59.0%	0.76×	2.24
Juventus over 1.5 in 1st half	17.3%	17.1%	10.0%	1.71×	5.84

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus scores more in 2nd half	44.2%	43.6%	33.1%	1.32×	2.30
Juventus scores equally in both	31.4%	33.2%	43.3%	0.77×	3.01
Juventus scores more in 1st half	24.4%	21.9%	23.8%	0.92×	4.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	54.7%	51.7%	39.7%	1.30×	1.93
Fiorentina (away no bet)	45.3%	48.3%	60.3%	0.80×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus even goals	51.2%	52.6%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90
Juventus odd goals	48.8%	47.4%	44.4%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.6%	82.9%	87.3%	0.95×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.4%	17.1%	12.7%	1.35×	5.85

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.4%	68.2%	60.5%	1.13×	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.6%	31.8%	39.5%	0.80×	3.15

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.3%	55.2%	53.6%	1.03×	1.81
Juventus to score 2+ in a row	48.3%	46.2%	27.8%	1.66×	2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.2%	19.6%	17.8%	1.10×	5.09
Juventus to score 3+ in a row	21.1%	19.6%	7.9%	2.48×	5.11
Fiorentina to score 2+ in a row	16.3%	16.2%	32.0%	0.51×	6.18
Fiorentina to score 3+ in a row	3.3%	2.6%	10.0%	0.26×	38.77

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus corners (+3.5)	86.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Juventus corners (+2.5)	80.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Fiorentina corners (+3.5)	78.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Juventus corners (+1.5)	71.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Fiorentina corners (+2.5)	69.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Fiorentina corners (+1.5)	59.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Juventus corners (-1.5)	40.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Juventus corners (-2.5)	30.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Fiorentina corners (-1.5)	28.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Juventus corners (-3.5)	21.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Fiorentina corners (-2.5)	19.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Fiorentina corners (-3.5)	13.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.4%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	25.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.0%	80.6%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	66.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	64.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	56.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	46.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 9.5 corners	43.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	35.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	33.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	25.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	19.0%	19.4%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	11.4%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.72
0-2	10.6%	11.5%	6.7%	1.71×	8.72
1-1	10.6%	11.5%	11.8%	0.97×	8.72
1-2	9.9%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.51
0-3	6.6%	7.4%	3.5%	2.14×	13.51
0-0	6.1%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.51
1-0	5.7%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
1-3	6.2%	7.4%	2.0%	3.64×	13.51
2-1	4.9%	1.7%	9.4%	0.18×	58.29
0-4	3.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.30
1-4	2.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.39×	58.30
2-0	2.7%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.30
2-2	4.6%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.29
2-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.30
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.31
3-0	0.8%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
3-1	1.5%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
3-2	1.4%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.31
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
4-0	0.2%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.32
4-1	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.32
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
Any other score	4.4%	1.7%	2.7%	0.62×	58.29

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (2nd half DNB)	72.5%	71.1%	46.3%	1.54×	1.41
Fiorentina (2nd half DNB)	27.5%	28.9%	53.7%	0.54×	3.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus leading at HT (DNB)	71.3%	73.9%	48.7%	1.52×	1.35
Fiorentina leading at HT (DNB)	28.7%	26.1%	51.3%	0.51×	3.83

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw (X2)	81.6%	80.6%	59.9%	1.35×	1.24
Fiorentina or Juventus (12)	77.7%	75.5%	73.6%	1.03×	1.32
Fiorentina or draw (1X)	40.7%	46.0%	66.4%	0.69×	2.17

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw at HT	83.5%	84.0%	71.6%	1.17×	1.19
Fiorentina or draw at HT	58.9%	57.7%	73.0%	0.79×	1.73
Fiorentina or Juventus at HT	57.6%	57.7%	55.3%	1.04×	1.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw (1UP)	81.6%	88.6%	65.4%	1.36×	1.13
Fiorentina or draw (1UP)	40.7%	52.5%	71.7%	0.73×	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw in 2nd half	81.4%	82.0%	65.0%	1.26×	1.22
Fiorentina or Juventus in 2nd half	67.7%	65.9%	65.1%	1.01×	1.52
Fiorentina or draw in 2nd half	50.9%	54.3%	69.8%	0.78×	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.0%	61.3%	63.6%	0.96×	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.0%	38.7%	36.4%	1.06×	2.58

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (DNB)	76.3%	74.7%	45.5%	1.64×	1.34
Fiorentina (DNB)	23.7%	25.3%	54.5%	0.46×	3.96

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score first	62.6%	64.1%	43.5%	1.47×	1.56
Fiorentina to score first	31.3%	27.6%	48.7%	0.57×	3.62
No goal scored	6.1%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.52

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.3%	51.3%	49.2%	1.04×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.7%	48.7%	50.8%	0.96×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.7%	41.6%	37.5%	1.11×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	36.4%	38.4%	40.1%	0.96×	2.60
Not both score & over 2.5	12.3%	12.4%	10.8%	1.15×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	10.6%	12.4%	11.8%	1.05×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.7%	85.6%	86.4%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.3%	14.4%	13.6%	1.06×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.9%	73.6%	74.7%	0.99×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.1%	26.4%	25.3%	1.04×	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.4%	60.1%	62.6%	0.96×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.4%	21.0%	20.6%	1.02×	4.76
Both score 1st half only	11.5%	10.8%	12.2%	0.88×	9.29
Both score in both halves	4.7%	5.0%	4.9%	1.01×	20.14

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.8%	83.2%	83.0%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.2%	16.8%	17.0%	0.99×	5.94

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.7%	53.1%	52.7%	1.01×	1.88
A half without a goal	45.3%	46.9%	47.3%	0.99×	2.13

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.1%	47.2%	48.5%	0.97×	2.12
4-6 goals	28.4%	26.6%	23.9%	1.11×	3.76
0-1 goals	23.1%	22.9%	26.9%	0.85×	4.36
7+ goals	2.4%	1.8%	1.0%	1.93×	54.29

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score exactly 1	28.9%	27.4%	34.6%	0.79×	3.65
Juventus to score 3+	28.7%	27.4%	11.9%	2.29×	3.65
Juventus to score exactly 2	26.9%	27.4%	23.3%	1.18×	3.65
Juventus to score exactly 0	15.5%	19.5%	30.3%	0.64×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score exactly 0	39.3%	35.6%	28.3%	1.26×	2.81
Fiorentina to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.6%	31.9%	1.11×	2.81
Fiorentina to score exactly 2	17.1%	18.8%	24.9%	0.75×	5.33
Fiorentina to score 3+	6.8%	10.3%	15.2%	0.68×	9.69

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.4%	42.3%	44.7%	0.95×	2.36
Juventus leading at HT	41.1%	42.3%	27.0%	1.57×	2.36
Fiorentina leading at HT	16.5%	16.0%	28.4%	0.56×	6.25

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus -1: 1	40.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Juventus -1: 2	34.7%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Juventus -1: X	24.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:1)	81.6%	77.9%	59.9%	1.30×	1.28
Draw (0:1)	12.3%	13.7%	22.7%	0.60×	7.30
Fiorentina (0:1)	6.1%	9.2%	17.6%	0.52×	10.86

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:2)	93.9%	90.8%	82.4%	1.10×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	4.6%	3.8%	10.0%	0.37×	26.61
Fiorentina (0:2)	1.6%	3.7%	7.6%	0.49×	26.79

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:3)	98.4%	96.6%	92.4%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	1.3%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.17
Fiorentina (0:3)	0.3%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:4)	99.7%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Fiorentina (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.17
Draw (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	82.14

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (1:0)	40.7%	43.2%	66.4%	0.65×	2.32
Juventus (1:0)	34.7%	30.3%	14.5%	2.09×	3.31
Draw (1:0)	24.6%	21.7%	19.2%	1.13×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2:0)	65.3%	70.6%	85.5%	0.83×	1.42
Draw (2:0)	18.3%	15.8%	8.7%	1.82×	6.32
Juventus (2:0)	16.4%	15.8%	5.9%	2.70×	6.34

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.6%	50.2%	46.5%	1.08×	1.99
1st half highest scoring	25.2%	26.2%	26.9%	0.97×	3.82
Halves equal	24.1%	24.4%	26.8%	0.91×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede	84.5%	81.0%	69.7%	1.16×	1.24
Fiorentina clean sheet	15.5%	19.0%	30.3%	0.63×	5.26

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 1st half	52.7%	55.4%	41.0%	1.35×	1.81
Fiorentina clean sheet in 1st half	47.3%	44.6%	59.0%	0.76×	2.24

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 2nd half	67.3%	67.2%	50.2%	1.34×	1.49
Fiorentina clean sheet in 2nd half	32.7%	32.8%	49.8%	0.66×	3.05

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 6.5 corners	81.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Fiorentina over 2.5 corners	73.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Fiorentina under 5.5 corners	71.8%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Fiorentina under 4.5 corners	58.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Fiorentina over 3.5 corners	56.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Fiorentina under 3.5 corners	43.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Fiorentina over 4.5 corners	41.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Fiorentina over 5.5 corners	28.2%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Fiorentina under 2.5 corners	27.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Fiorentina over 6.5 corners	18.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 3.5 goals	98.5%	96.4%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Fiorentina under 2.5 goals	93.2%	92.2%	84.8%	1.09×	1.08
Fiorentina under 1.5 goals	76.0%	77.7%	60.1%	1.29×	1.29
Fiorentina over 0.5 goals	60.7%	63.6%	71.7%	0.89×	1.57
Fiorentina under 0.5 goals	39.3%	36.4%	28.3%	1.29×	2.75
Fiorentina over 1.5 goals	24.0%	22.3%	39.9%	0.56×	4.49
Fiorentina over 2.5 goals	6.8%	7.8%	15.2%	0.51×	12.87
Fiorentina over 3.5 goals	1.5%	3.6%	4.7%	0.78×	27.60

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 1st half	94.7%	94.9%	89.4%	1.06×	1.05
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 1st half	69.3%	69.6%	57.9%	1.20×	1.44
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 1st half	30.7%	30.4%	42.1%	0.72×	3.29
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 1st half	5.3%	5.1%	10.6%	0.48×	19.76

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina scores equally in both	47.9%	47.2%	41.6%	1.13×	2.12
Fiorentina scores more in 2nd half	32.9%	33.2%	36.4%	0.91×	3.01
Fiorentina scores more in 1st half	19.2%	15.7%	22.1%	0.71×	6.38

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (home no bet)	72.7%	66.9%	56.0%	1.20×	1.50
Draw (home no bet)	27.3%	33.1%	44.0%	0.75×	3.02

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina even goals	57.7%	55.3%	56.3%	0.98×	1.81
Fiorentina odd goals	42.3%	44.7%	43.7%	1.02×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.8%	33.2%	33.9%	0.98×	3.01
HT 0-1	24.5%	24.4%	18.0%	1.35×	4.11
HT 1-0	12.0%	11.0%	18.5%	0.59×	9.11
HT 0-2	9.2%	6.9%	5.4%	1.29×	14.43
HT 1-1	9.0%	6.9%	10.3%	0.67×	14.44
Any other HT score	4.6%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	41.91
HT 1-2	3.4%	2.4%	2.6%	0.91×	41.99
HT 2-0	2.2%	2.4%	5.7%	0.41×	42.06
HT 2-1	1.7%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.10
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	0.7%	3.31×	42.17

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus at HT / Juventus at FT	35.4%	40.7%	19.0%	2.14×	2.46
Draw at HT / Juventus at FT	20.8%	21.6%	12.9%	1.68×	4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.7%	12.7%	16.0%	0.79×	7.90
Fiorentina at HT / Fiorentina at FT	9.2%	6.1%	22.0%	0.28×	16.38
Draw at HT / Fiorentina at FT	7.9%	6.1%	16.0%	0.38×	16.42
Juventus at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.81
Fiorentina at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.82
Fiorentina at HT / Juventus at FT	3.1%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.86
Juventus at HT / Fiorentina at FT	1.3%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score last	62.6%	62.2%	44.2%	1.41×	1.61
Fiorentina to score last	31.3%	32.3%	48.0%	0.67×	3.09
No goal scored	6.1%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.52

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.9%	92.7%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
Juventus to lead by 1 at any time	71.5%	73.9%	50.3%	1.47×	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.1%	50.8%	44.0%	1.15×	1.97
Juventus to lead by 2 at any time	41.0%	39.2%	20.2%	1.94×	2.55
Fiorentina to lead by 1 at any time	35.8%	34.6%	55.4%	0.62×	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.4%	19.5%	15.1%	1.30×	5.12
Juventus to lead by 3 at any time	19.0%	14.9%	6.5%	2.31×	6.70
Fiorentina to lead by 2 at any time	10.3%	10.5%	24.3%	0.43×	9.55
Fiorentina to lead by 3 at any time	2.4%	1.6%	8.7%	0.18×	62.62

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus most corners	51.1%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Fiorentina most corners	38.1%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.4%	89.1%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.7%	78.7%	80.6%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.5%	72.4%	72.3%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.4%	72.3%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.1%	63.3%	67.5%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	61.6%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.6%	53.2%	47.3%	1.12×	1.88
3-5 goals	46.5%	48.5%	45.2%	1.07×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.1%	48.5%	48.5%	1.00×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.9%	43.6%	44.1%	0.99×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.8%	39.2%	36.7%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.4%	30.2%	23.9%	1.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.3%	24.5%	21.7%	1.13×	4.09
5-6 goals	12.8%	14.8%	10.8%	1.38×	6.75
7+ goals	2.4%	2.6%	1.0%	2.67×	39.15

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus never behind	58.1%	62.6%	44.6%	1.40×	1.60
Fiorentina never behind	22.4%	25.0%	49.7%	0.50×	4.00

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	48.5%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.4%	57.5%	56.6%	1.02×	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.6%	42.5%	43.4%	0.98×	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	51.9%	50.7%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	48.1%	49.3%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.9%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.5%	92.3%	96.9%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.8%	82.3%	88.4%	0.93×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	76.9%	77.3%	73.1%	1.06×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.2%	66.3%	75.3%	0.88×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.0%	52.5%	48.1%	1.09×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	47.0%	47.5%	51.9%	0.92×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	30.8%	33.7%	24.7%	1.36×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	23.1%	22.7%	26.9%	0.84×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	15.2%	17.7%	11.6%	1.52×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	6.5%	7.7%	3.1%	2.49×	12.95
Under 0.5 goals	6.1%	7.7%	7.9%	0.98×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.5%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.9%	92.4%	96.6%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.0%	81.1%	86.7%	0.94×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.6%	67.5%	64.2%	1.05×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.4%	61.9%	67.7%	0.91×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.6%	38.1%	32.3%	1.18×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.4%	32.5%	35.8%	0.91×	3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.0%	18.9%	13.3%	1.42×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.1%	7.6%	3.4%	2.24×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.5%	2.8%	1.0%	2.88×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.7%	89.1%	91.3%	0.98×	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.3%	68.6%	70.3%	0.98×	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.2%	68.5%	66.1%	1.04×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.8%	31.5%	33.9%	0.93×	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.7%	31.4%	29.7%	1.06×	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.3%	10.9%	8.7%	1.25×	9.17

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.4%	82.9%	78.7%	1.05×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.2%	79.7%	82.2%	0.97×	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.2%	53.2%	43.4%	1.23×	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.8%	46.8%	56.6%	0.83×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.8%	20.3%	17.8%	1.14×	4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.6%	17.1%	21.3%	0.80×	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to score in both halves	86.7%	85.5%	75.7%	1.13×	1.17
Juventus not to score in both halves	64.6%	63.4%	78.5%	0.81×	1.58
Juventus to score in both halves	35.4%	36.6%	21.5%	1.70×	2.73
Fiorentina to score in both halves	13.3%	14.5%	24.3%	0.60×	6.89

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.3%	53.8%	49.2%	1.09×	1.86
Only Juventus scores	33.2%	33.3%	20.6%	1.62×	3.00
Only Fiorentina scores	9.4%	7.1%	22.6%	0.32×	14.01
Neither team scores	6.1%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.8%	22.6%	25.1%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.0%	17.5%	19.1%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.6%	17.5%	13.3%	1.32×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.7%	7.6%	8.6%	0.88×	13.14
6 or more goals	6.5%	7.6%	3.1%	2.45×	13.15
Exactly 0 goals	6.1%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.6%	37.4%	36.4%	1.03×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	32.8%	35.7%	33.9%	1.05×	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	20.4%	21.4%	21.1%	1.01×	4.67
3+ goals in 1st half	10.3%	10.8%	8.7%	1.24×	9.25

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.2%	51.3%	43.4%	1.18×	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	31.3%	33.7%	35.5%	0.95×	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	18.6%	16.7%	21.3%	0.79×	5.98

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win both halves	96.9%	97.2%	90.0%	1.08×	1.03
Juventus not to win both halves	79.8%	75.6%	91.2%	0.83×	1.32
Juventus to win both halves	20.2%	24.4%	8.8%	2.76×	4.09
Fiorentina to win both halves	3.1%	2.8%	10.0%	0.28×	35.74

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to win either half	70.0%	67.9%	48.4%	1.40×	1.47
Fiorentina to win neither half	67.9%	67.8%	46.6%	1.45×	1.48
Fiorentina to win either half	32.1%	32.2%	53.4%	0.60×	3.10
Juventus to win neither half	30.0%	32.1%	51.6%	0.62×	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win to nil	90.6%	92.1%	77.4%	1.19×	1.09
Juventus not to win to nil	66.8%	69.6%	79.5%	0.88×	1.44
Juventus to win to nil	33.2%	30.4%	20.6%	1.48×	3.29
Fiorentina to win to nil	9.4%	7.9%	22.6%	0.35×	12.59

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus by 1	24.6%	24.1%	19.2%	1.25×	4.15
Draw	22.3%	24.1%	26.4%	0.91×	4.15
Juventus by 2	18.3%	17.0%	8.7%	1.95×	5.87
Juventus by 3+	16.4%	17.0%	5.9%	2.91×	5.87
Fiorentina by 1	12.3%	11.8%	22.7%	0.52×	8.51
Fiorentina by 2	4.6%	2.7%	10.0%	0.27×	36.79
Fiorentina by 3+	1.6%	2.7%	7.6%	0.35×	36.88