Fiorentina v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 13 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 13
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
4 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.31
Goals − xG
+0.57 – -1.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
37.2%
Draw
28.1%
Lazio win
34.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWDLLLWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.6 xG
conceded 18
from 17.2 xG
Lazio are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWWDWWWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 8
from 13.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.25–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.50–1.20 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 0.43 xGLazio 1.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
Lazio attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 3' |
Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 3' |
Lazio |
Nuno Tavares | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
 Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacopo Fazzini |
| 9' |
Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Patric |
| 12' |
Fiorentina |
Jack Harrison | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacopo Fazzini |
| 18' |
Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Fiorentina |
Robin Gosens | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Goal | Jack Harrison |
| 43' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kenneth Taylor |
| 51' |
Lazio |
Patric | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tijjani Noslin |
| 53' |
Lazio |
Nuno Tavares | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 56' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Fiorentina |
Jack Harrison | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovanni Fabbian |
| 57' |
Fiorentina |
Jack Harrison | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Lazio |
Nuno Tavares | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 80' |
Lazio |
Petar Ratkov | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 85' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 91' |
Fiorentina |
Giovanni Fabbian | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 95' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 96' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Harrison FWR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.37 |
| Giovanni Fabbian MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| Cher Ndour MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jacopo Fazzini FWL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Robin Gosens DL | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Daniele Rugani DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marin Pongracic Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luís Balbo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Manor Solomon Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patric MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 0.59 |
| Nuno Tavares DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| Manuel Lazzari DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Oliver Provstgaard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Edoardo Motta GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Kenneth Taylor MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Matteo Cancellieri FWR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Boulaye Dia FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.63 |
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 46 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| Toma Basic MC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.29 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Gustav Isaksen Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| Pedro Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Petar Ratkov Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |