Fiorentina v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 2 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 11
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.10 – 0.61
Goals − xG
-1.40 – -0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
58.9%
Draw
24.6%
Lecce win
16.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWDLLLWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.6 xG
conceded 18
from 17.2 xG
Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLWLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 23.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.80–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.03–0.73 | 2-0 13% | 52% | 45% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 1.40 xGLecce 1.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Fiorentina |
Niccolò Fortini | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dodô |
| 9' |
 Lecce |
Tete Morente | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 15' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 25' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 25' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Medon Berisha |
| 26' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tete Morente |
| 30' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Fiorentina |
Edin Dzeko | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Niccolò Fortini |
| 41' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 42' |
Fiorentina |
Luca Ranieri | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Lecce |
Kialonda Gaspar | 0.47 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Medon Berisha |
| 47' |
Lecce |
Tete Morente | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Medon Berisha |
| 57' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Lecce |
Tete Morente | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Stulic |
| 60' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Roberto Piccoli |
| 60' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 65' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tete Morente |
| 71' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Fiorentina |
Marin Pongracic | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 78' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.42 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marin Pongracic |
| 80' |
Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Fiorentina |
Marin Pongracic | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 92' |
Fiorentina |
Simon Sohm | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jacopo Fazzini |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moise Kean FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.42 | 0.16 |
| Niccolò Fortini DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Dodô DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Pietro Comuzzo DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Edin Dzeko FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Cher Ndour MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Simon Sohm Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Albert Gudmundsson Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Rolando Mandragora Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.00 |
| Roberto Piccoli Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Jacopo Fazzini Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lassana Coulibaly DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tete Morente AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Stulic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Medon Berisha AMC | 77 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.64 | 0.51 | 0.64 |
| Lameck Banda AML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Santiago Pierotti Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssef Maleh Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Kaba Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francesco Camarda Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |