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Fiorentina v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 September 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

2–2
2.42 – 0.49 xG
Shots
18 – 4
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
16 – 1
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.01 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.44 – +1.51
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.42.02.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Milan Djuric 17' — goalDaniel Maldini 31' — goalMoise Kean 44' — goalRobin Gosens 95' — goal
Fiorentina 2.44 xGMonza 0.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Danilo Cataldi 3' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Milan Djuric 17' — Goal (0.35 xG, Open Play)Warren Bondo 23' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 31' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 38' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 40' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Lucas Beltrán 43' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 44' — Goal (0.65 xG, From Corner)Moise Kean 46' — Missed Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Pietro Comuzzo 47' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Danilo Cataldi 56' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lucas Beltrán 56' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Ikone 75' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Dodô 82' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Edoardo Bove 84' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Lucas Martínez Quarta 85' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, From Corner)Jonathan Ikone 89' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 89' — Saved Shot (0.53 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 91' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Robin Gosens 95' — Goal (0.19 xG, From Corner)Christian Kouamé 96' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Edoardo Bove 98' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Fiorentina attacking right Monza attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Fiorentina Danilo Cataldi 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Rolando Mandragora
17' Monza Milan Djuric 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Goal Pedro Pereira
23' Monza Warren Bondo 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Matteo Pessina
31' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Goal Georgios Kyriakopoulos
38' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.07 Open Play Blocked Shot Robin Gosens
40' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Milan Djuric
43' Fiorentina Lucas Beltrán 0.06 Open Play Blocked Shot Danilo Cataldi
44' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.65 From Corner Right Foot Goal Luca Ranieri
46' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.35 Open Play Missed Shot Dodô
47' Fiorentina Pietro Comuzzo 0.01 Set Piece Saved Shot Cristiano Biraghi
56' Fiorentina Danilo Cataldi 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
56' Fiorentina Lucas Beltrán 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Rolando Mandragora
75' Fiorentina Jonathan Ikone 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Dodô
82' Fiorentina Dodô 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
84' Fiorentina Edoardo Bove 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jonathan Ikone
85' Fiorentina Lucas Martínez Quarta 0.13 From Corner Missed Shot Cristiano Biraghi
89' Fiorentina Jonathan Ikone 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Robin Gosens
89' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.53 Open Play Saved Shot
91' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Christian Kouamé
95' Fiorentina Robin Gosens 0.19 From Corner Goal Yacine Adli
96' Fiorentina Christian Kouamé 0.01 Set Piece Missed Shot Cristiano Biraghi
98' Fiorentina Edoardo Bove 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot

Players

Monza

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Warren Bondo MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.38
Stefano Turati GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Pablo Marí DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.47
Matteo Pessina MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.47
Georgios Kyriakopoulos DML 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Armando Izzo DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Andrea Carboni DC 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
Pedro Pereira DMR 82 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.35 0.35
Daniel Maldini AMC 74 1 0 2 0 0.11 0.00 0.46
Milan Djuric FW 67 1 0 1 1 0.35 0.09 0.44
Gianluca Caprari AMC 67 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
Roberto Gagliardini Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andrea Petagna Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Samuele Vignato Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Danilo D'Ambrosio Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Luca Caldirola Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fiorentina

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Moise Kean FW 90 1 0 5 0 1.66 0.00 1.02
Robin Gosens DML 90 1 0 1 2 0.19 0.11 0.23
Dodô DMR 90 0 0 1 2 0.04 0.40 0.64
Cristiano Biraghi DC 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.15 0.10
Luca Ranieri DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.65 0.20
Pietro Terracciano GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Pietro Comuzzo DC 83 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.57
Danilo Cataldi MC 73 0 0 2 1 0.08 0.06 0.57
Andrea Colpani AMC 73 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Lucas Beltrán AMC 62 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.44
Rolando Mandragora MC 62 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.07 0.11
Edoardo Bove Sub 28 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.21
Christian Kouamé Sub 28 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.07 0.07
Jonathan Ikone Sub 17 0 0 2 1 0.10 0.10 0.26
Yacine Adli Sub 17 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.19 0.22
Lucas Martínez Quarta Sub 7 0 0 1 0 0.13 0.00 0.20
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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