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Fiorentina v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 4 January 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

0–3
0.88 – 1.60 xG
Shots
14 – 10
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 9
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.82
Goals − xG
-0.90 – +1.40
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'David Neres 28' — goalRomelu Lukaku 53' — goalScott McTominay 67' — goal
Fiorentina 0.90 xGNapoli 1.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Rolando Mandragora 6' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Dodô 7' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Riccardo Sottil 8' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Leonardo Spinazzola 17' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Amir Rrahmani 21' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)David Neres 25' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)David Neres 28' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Sottil 32' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Rolando Mandragora 38' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dodô 41' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Scott McTominay 52' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Romelu Lukaku 53' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Andrea Colpani 60' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Lucas Beltrán 60' — Blocked Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Lucas Beltrán 60' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Rolando Mandragora 60' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)David Neres 62' — Missed Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Robin Gosens 64' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Yacine Adli 64' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Scott McTominay 67' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Sottil 69' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Franck Zambo 79' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Luca Ranieri 82' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Giovanni Simeone 88' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)
Fiorentina attacking right Napoli attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
6' Fiorentina Rolando Mandragora 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Riccardo Sottil
7' Fiorentina Dodô 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
8' Fiorentina Riccardo Sottil 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Matías Moreno
17' Napoli Leonardo Spinazzola 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Amir Rrahmani
21' Napoli Amir Rrahmani 0.02 Set Piece Missed Shot Stanislav Lobotka
25' Napoli David Neres 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Scott McTominay
28' Napoli David Neres 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Goal Romelu Lukaku
32' Fiorentina Riccardo Sottil 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
38' Fiorentina Rolando Mandragora 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Yacine Adli
41' Fiorentina Dodô 0.01 Open Play Missed Shot Fabiano Parisi
52' Napoli Scott McTominay 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot David Neres
53' Napoli Romelu Lukaku 0.76 Left Foot Goal
60' Fiorentina Andrea Colpani 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Lucas Beltrán
60' Fiorentina Lucas Beltrán 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
60' Fiorentina Lucas Beltrán 0.06 Open Play Missed Shot Dodô
60' Fiorentina Rolando Mandragora 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
62' Napoli David Neres 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Romelu Lukaku
64' Fiorentina Robin Gosens 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot
64' Fiorentina Yacine Adli 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Rolando Mandragora
67' Napoli Scott McTominay 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Goal
69' Fiorentina Riccardo Sottil 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Yacine Adli
79' Napoli Franck Zambo 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Leonardo Spinazzola
82' Fiorentina Luca Ranieri 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Riccardo Sottil
88' Napoli Giovanni Simeone 0.05 Set Piece Missed Shot Giacomo Raspadori

Players

Fiorentina

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Riccardo Sottil AMC 90 0 0 3 2 0.09 0.11 0.21
Luca Ranieri DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.06
Dodô DMR 90 0 0 2 1 0.03 0.06 0.10
Moise Kean FW 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Pietro Comuzzo DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
David de Gea GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lucas Beltrán AMC 80 0 0 2 1 0.41 0.11 0.54
Yacine Adli MC 80 0 0 1 2 0.03 0.06 0.11
Rolando Mandragora MC 74 0 0 3 1 0.16 0.03 0.20
Matías Moreno DC 60 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Fabiano Parisi DML 60 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.01
Andrea Colpani Sub 30 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.14
Robin Gosens Sub 30 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.07
Amir Richardson Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Danilo Cataldi Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Christian Kouamé Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Napoli

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Scott McTominay MC 90 1 0 2 1 0.20 0.03 0.35
Franck Zambo MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.51
Amir Rrahmani DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.05 0.53
Mathías Olivera DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23
Juan Jesus DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.39
Giovanni Di Lorenzo DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.37
Stanislav Lobotka MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.23
Alex Meret GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
David Neres FWR 87 1 0 3 1 0.40 0.11 0.51
Leonardo Spinazzola FWL 87 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.12 0.41
Romelu Lukaku FW 74 1 1 1 2 0.76 0.37 0.48
Giovanni Simeone Sub 16 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.00
Cyril Ngonge Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pasquale Mazzocchi Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Billy Gilmour Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Giacomo Raspadori Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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