Fiorentina v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Fiorentina

1–1

1.06 – 2.13 xG

Napoli

Shots

17 – 13

On target

4 – 5

Shots in box

10 – 11

xG per shot

0.06 – 0.17

Set-piece xG

0.09 – 0.13

Goals − xG

-0.06 – -1.19

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 19 Sep, 11:09 · 23h before kick-off

Fiorentina win

26.5%

model 28.3%

Draw

26.5%

model 25.6%

Napoli win

47.0%

model 46.1%

272647

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.2%
0-1 10.8%
1-2 9.2%
0-2 8.2%
1-0 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	49.0%	Under 2.5	51.0%
BTTS yes	52.6%	BTTS no	47.4%
Fiorentina 1+	67.5%	Fiorentina 2+	31.0%
Napoli 1+	77.9%	Napoli 2+	44.5%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.51. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

95/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Napoli or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 60%

72.6% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 4314 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1659 Elo against 1534.
Away from home Napoli average 1.41 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.47 expected goal involvements a match against 0.98.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Napoli have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 26.5% for Fiorentina and 26.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.12 for Fiorentina and 1.51 for Napoli.

Why Fiorentina

At home Fiorentina average 1.44 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Napoli can win

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1659 Elo against 1534. Away from home Napoli average 1.41 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.47 expected goal involvements a match against 0.98.

Key players

Fiorentina's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Moise Kean (0.52), Franco Mastantuono (0.37), Albert Gudmundsson (0.33). Napoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rasmus Højlund (0.45), Scott McTominay (0.38), Kevin De Bruyne (0.31).

Availability

2 of Fiorentina's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Fiorentina's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Napoli's top three contributors did not start their last match. Napoli changed goalkeeper for their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Fiorentina: 43% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces. Napoli: 47% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 18.4 faced, 0.10 xG a match from set pieces. Fiorentina's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-19 13:53 · team_stats 2026-09-19 06:04 · availability 2026-09-19 15:09 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Napoli are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Confidence 95/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWDLLLWDLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.6 xG conceded 18 from 17.2 xG

Napoli are finishing below their chances — 3.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWWWLLWDWL last 10 scored 16 from 19.2 xG conceded 10 from 10.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	282646	1.12–1.51	0%	0%	0%	Away ✗
dc-xg	242551	1.05–1.64	1-1 12%	50%	52%	Away ✗
dc-xg-oos	242551	1.05–1.64	1-1 12%	50%	52%	Away ✗
deep	242551	1.05–1.64	1-1 12%	50%	52%	Away ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win	51.2%	51.6%	33.9%	1.52×	1.94
Draw	24.6%	24.5%	26.7%	0.92×	4.09
Fiorentina to win	24.2%	24.5%	39.6%	0.62×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & not both score	28.3%	25.1%	20.7%	1.22×	3.98
Napoli & both teams score	22.9%	21.8%	13.3%	1.64×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	17.8%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.57
Fiorentina & not both score	12.6%	13.3%	22.4%	0.59×	7.53
Fiorentina & both teams score	11.6%	13.3%	17.3%	0.77×	7.53
Draw & not both score	6.8%	8.3%	8.1%	1.03×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & over 1.5	40.0%	40.2%	24.7%	1.63×	2.49
Napoli & under 3.5	34.9%	30.8%	26.5%	1.16×	3.25
Napoli & over 2.5	30.9%	30.8%	18.1%	1.70×	3.25
Napoli & under 2.5	20.3%	21.6%	15.9%	1.36×	4.63
Fiorentina & under 3.5	18.3%	18.0%	29.4%	0.61×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.5%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.5%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Fiorentina & over 1.5	17.1%	18.0%	29.3%	0.61×	5.56
Napoli & over 3.5	16.3%	18.0%	7.5%	2.41×	5.56
Fiorentina & over 2.5	13.4%	12.9%	22.8%	0.56×	7.77
Fiorentina & under 2.5	10.9%	12.9%	16.9%	0.76×	7.78
Napoli & under 1.5	11.2%	12.9%	9.3%	1.38×	7.78
Fiorentina & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	10.5%	0.76×	12.63
Fiorentina & over 3.5	5.9%	7.9%	10.3%	0.77×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.8%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.1%	7.9%	7.0%	1.14×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.1%	7.9%	7.0%	1.14×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (1UP)	65.2%	69.6%	51.1%	1.36×	1.44
Fiorentina (1UP)	41.6%	38.9%	54.9%	0.71×	2.57

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2UP)	51.2%	55.3%	36.5%	1.52×	1.81
Fiorentina (2UP)	24.2%	23.6%	41.3%	0.57×	4.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win 2nd half	41.0%	40.9%	29.8%	1.38×	2.44
2nd half drawn	35.5%	36.2%	35.5%	1.02×	2.76
Fiorentina to win 2nd half	23.5%	23.1%	34.9%	0.66×	4.33

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.4%	79.2%	85.1%	0.93×	1.26
Napoli over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.3%	59.6%	49.9%	1.19×	1.68
Napoli under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.7%	40.4%	50.1%	0.81×	2.47
Napoli over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.6%	20.8%	14.9%	1.39×	4.82

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.1%	87.7%	81.2%	1.08×	1.14
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 2nd half	53.8%	53.4%	46.2%	1.16×	1.87
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.2%	46.6%	53.8%	0.87×	2.15
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.9%	12.3%	18.8%	0.65×	8.13

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (+2.5)	97.4%	96.3%	92.5%	1.04×	1.04
Napoli (+1.5)	91.1%	92.1%	83.1%	1.11×	1.09
Napoli (+0.5)	75.8%	78.5%	60.4%	1.30×	1.27
Napoli (-0.5)	51.2%	52.5%	33.9%	1.55×	1.91
Fiorentina (+0.5)	48.8%	47.5%	66.1%	0.72×	2.10
Fiorentina (-0.5)	24.2%	21.5%	39.6%	0.54×	4.65
Fiorentina (-1.5)	8.9%	7.9%	16.9%	0.47×	12.66
Fiorentina (-2.5)	2.6%	3.7%	7.5%	0.49×	27.17

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede	64.9%	67.5%	71.4%	0.95×	1.48
Napoli clean sheet	35.1%	32.5%	28.6%	1.13×	3.08

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 1st half	65.3%	69.8%	58.7%	1.19×	1.43
Napoli to concede in 1st half	34.7%	30.2%	41.3%	0.73×	3.31

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 2nd half	53.8%	52.9%	46.2%	1.14×	1.89
Napoli to concede in 2nd half	46.2%	47.1%	53.8%	0.88×	2.12

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 6.5 corners	78.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Napoli over 2.5 corners	76.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Napoli under 5.5 corners	67.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Napoli over 3.5 corners	61.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Napoli under 4.5 corners	54.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Napoli over 4.5 corners	45.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Napoli under 3.5 corners	39.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Napoli over 5.5 corners	32.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Napoli under 2.5 corners	23.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Napoli over 6.5 corners	21.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 3.5 goals	91.6%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Napoli over 0.5 goals	80.6%	81.4%	69.6%	1.17×	1.23
Napoli under 2.5 goals	77.3%	76.3%	88.3%	0.86×	1.31
Napoli under 1.5 goals	51.2%	53.5%	65.0%	0.82×	1.87
Napoli over 1.5 goals	48.8%	46.5%	35.0%	1.33×	2.15
Napoli over 2.5 goals	22.7%	23.7%	11.7%	2.02×	4.22
Napoli under 0.5 goals	19.4%	18.6%	30.4%	0.61×	5.37
Napoli over 3.5 goals	8.4%	7.7%	3.0%	2.58×	12.99

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half	83.8%	83.0%	90.0%	0.92×	1.20
Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half	51.2%	55.6%	41.2%	1.35×	1.80
Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half	48.8%	44.4%	58.8%	0.76×	2.25
Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half	16.2%	17.0%	10.0%	1.70×	5.89

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli scores more in 2nd half	38.6%	36.5%	32.8%	1.12×	2.74
Napoli scores equally in both	34.5%	34.0%	43.6%	0.78×	2.95
Napoli scores more in 1st half	26.9%	26.4%	23.8%	1.11×	3.78

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	50.4%	51.6%	40.2%	1.28×	1.94
Fiorentina (away no bet)	49.6%	48.4%	59.8%	0.81×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli even goals	51.9%	52.6%	55.8%	0.94×	1.90
Napoli odd goals	48.1%	47.4%	44.2%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.5%	87.7%	87.0%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.5%	12.3%	13.0%	0.95×	8.13

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.9%	58.1%	59.8%	0.97×	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.1%	41.9%	40.2%	1.04×	2.39

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.7%	55.1%	52.9%	1.04×	1.82
Napoli to score 2+ in a row	41.0%	38.2%	27.8%	1.38×	2.62
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.4%	19.5%	17.3%	1.13×	5.12
Fiorentina to score 2+ in a row	20.3%	19.5%	31.3%	0.62×	5.12
Napoli to score 3+ in a row	15.8%	16.4%	7.7%	2.12×	6.11
Fiorentina to score 3+ in a row	4.8%	2.6%	9.7%	0.27×	38.32

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli corners (+3.5)	88.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Napoli corners (+2.5)	82.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Fiorentina corners (+3.5)	78.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Napoli corners (+1.5)	74.1%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Fiorentina corners (+2.5)	70.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Fiorentina corners (+1.5)	59.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Napoli corners (-1.5)	40.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Napoli corners (-2.5)	29.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Fiorentina corners (-1.5)	25.9%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Napoli corners (-3.5)	21.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Fiorentina corners (-2.5)	17.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Fiorentina corners (-3.5)	11.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	54.9%	45.4%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	18.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	86.8%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	81.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	74.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	65.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	56.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	54.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	45.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 7.5 corners	43.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	34.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Over 10.5 corners	26.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	18.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.19
Over 12.5 corners	13.2%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	11.2%	11.5%	9.3%	1.23×	8.73
1-1	11.7%	11.5%	11.8%	0.97×	8.73
0-2	9.2%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.50
1-2	9.6%	7.4%	7.6%	0.98×	13.50
0-0	6.8%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.50
1-0	7.1%	7.4%	10.5%	0.71×	13.50
0-3	5.0%	7.4%	3.2%	2.29×	13.50
1-3	5.2%	7.4%	1.9%	3.96×	13.50
2-1	6.1%	7.4%	9.3%	0.79×	13.50
2-2	5.0%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.50
0-4	2.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.34
1-4	2.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.29×	58.34
2-0	3.7%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.33
2-3	2.7%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.34
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.35
3-0	1.3%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.35
3-1	2.1%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.34
3-2	1.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.34
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.97×	58.35
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.35
4-0	0.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.35
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.35
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	0.1%	13.71×	58.35
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.35
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.35
Any other score	3.0%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.34

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2nd half DNB)	63.5%	61.5%	46.1%	1.34×	1.63
Fiorentina (2nd half DNB)	36.5%	38.5%	54.0%	0.71×	2.60

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli leading at HT (DNB)	66.2%	73.4%	49.9%	1.47×	1.36
Fiorentina leading at HT (DNB)	33.8%	26.6%	50.1%	0.53×	3.75

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw (X2)	75.8%	75.5%	60.4%	1.25×	1.32
Fiorentina or Napoli (12)	75.4%	75.5%	73.4%	1.03×	1.32
Fiorentina or draw (1X)	48.8%	48.4%	66.1%	0.73×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw at HT	80.5%	84.3%	72.5%	1.16×	1.19
Fiorentina or draw at HT	61.9%	61.9%	72.6%	0.85×	1.62
Fiorentina or Napoli at HT	57.6%	56.7%	54.8%	1.04×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw (1UP)	75.8%	84.0%	66.1%	1.27×	1.19
Fiorentina or draw (1UP)	48.8%	52.9%	71.5%	0.74×	1.89

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw in 2nd half	76.5%	76.9%	65.1%	1.18×	1.30
Fiorentina or Napoli in 2nd half	64.5%	63.8%	64.5%	0.99×	1.57
Fiorentina or draw in 2nd half	59.0%	59.1%	70.2%	0.84×	1.69

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.8%	61.7%	64.3%	0.96×	1.62
Neither half drawn	37.2%	38.3%	35.7%	1.07×	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (DNB)	67.9%	67.3%	46.1%	1.46×	1.49
Fiorentina (DNB)	32.1%	32.7%	53.9%	0.61×	3.06

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score first	56.9%	62.0%	44.1%	1.41×	1.61
Fiorentina to score first	36.3%	32.6%	47.9%	0.68×	3.07
No goal scored	6.8%	7.5%	8.1%	0.93×	13.27

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.3%	51.3%	49.1%	1.05×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.7%	48.7%	50.9%	0.96×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.6%	41.6%	37.4%	1.11×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	38.0%	38.4%	40.7%	0.94×	2.61
Both score & under 2.5	11.7%	12.4%	11.8%	1.04×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	9.7%	8.3%	10.3%	0.81×	12.02

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.3%	85.6%	86.4%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.7%	14.4%	13.6%	1.06×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.1%	74.1%	74.5%	0.99×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.9%	25.9%	25.5%	1.02×	3.86

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.3%	59.6%	62.8%	0.95×	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	22.9%	21.0%	20.5%	1.02×	4.77
Both score 1st half only	12.8%	10.7%	11.8%	0.90×	9.37
Both score in both halves	4.9%	5.0%	5.1%	0.98×	20.01

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.2%	82.7%	83.2%	0.99×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.8%	17.3%	16.8%	1.03×	5.79

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.6%	53.1%	52.1%	1.02×	1.88
A half without a goal	46.4%	46.9%	47.9%	0.98×	2.13

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	47.2%	47.9%	0.99×	2.12
4-6 goals	26.3%	26.6%	23.7%	1.12×	3.76
0-1 goals	25.1%	26.6%	27.6%	0.96×	3.76
7+ goals	2.0%	1.8%	1.0%	1.82×	55.02

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score exactly 1	31.8%	33.8%	34.7%	0.97×	2.96
Napoli to score exactly 2	26.1%	27.4%	23.4%	1.17×	3.65
Napoli to score 3+	22.7%	22.3%	11.7%	1.91×	4.48
Napoli to score exactly 0	19.4%	19.6%	30.4%	0.64×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.6%	32.3%	1.10×	2.81
Fiorentina to score exactly 0	35.1%	35.6%	28.6%	1.24×	2.81
Fiorentina to score exactly 2	19.2%	18.8%	24.8%	0.76×	5.31
Fiorentina to score 3+	8.9%	10.3%	14.6%	0.71×	9.67

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.4%	43.3%	45.2%	0.96×	2.31
Napoli leading at HT	38.1%	38.1%	27.4%	1.39×	2.63
Fiorentina leading at HT	19.5%	15.7%	27.5%	0.57×	6.38

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli -1: 1	48.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Napoli -1: 2	27.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Napoli -1: X	23.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:1)	75.8%	73.8%	60.4%	1.22×	1.36
Draw (0:1)	15.3%	17.8%	22.8%	0.78×	5.62
Fiorentina (0:1)	8.9%	9.2%	16.9%	0.54×	10.84

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:2)	91.1%	90.8%	83.1%	1.09×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	6.4%	7.7%	9.6%	0.80×	13.02
Fiorentina (0:2)	2.6%	3.7%	7.5%	0.50×	26.72

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:3)	97.4%	96.6%	92.5%	1.04×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.0%	2.4%	4.5%	0.53×	42.27
Fiorentina (0:3)	0.6%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.33

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:4)	99.4%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	2.2%	0.54×	82.87
Fiorentina (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.0%	1.21×	82.91

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (1:0)	48.8%	49.3%	66.1%	0.75×	2.03
Napoli (1:0)	27.3%	25.0%	14.2%	1.76×	4.00
Draw (1:0)	23.9%	21.8%	19.8%	1.10×	4.59

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2:0)	72.7%	76.6%	85.8%	0.89×	1.31
Draw (2:0)	15.7%	15.7%	8.6%	1.82×	6.38
Napoli (2:0)	11.6%	10.3%	5.7%	1.80×	9.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.5%	48.0%	46.5%	1.03×	2.08
1st half highest scoring	28.2%	26.4%	26.7%	0.99×	3.79
Halves equal	25.3%	26.3%	27.0%	0.97×	3.80

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede	80.6%	80.7%	69.6%	1.16×	1.24
Fiorentina clean sheet	19.4%	19.3%	30.4%	0.64×	5.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 1st half	51.2%	55.6%	41.2%	1.35×	1.80
Fiorentina clean sheet in 1st half	48.8%	44.4%	58.8%	0.76×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 2nd half	60.3%	59.3%	49.9%	1.19×	1.69
Fiorentina clean sheet in 2nd half	39.7%	40.7%	50.1%	0.81×	2.46

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 6.5 corners	86.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Fiorentina under 5.5 corners	78.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Fiorentina over 2.5 corners	67.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Fiorentina under 4.5 corners	65.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Fiorentina under 3.5 corners	50.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Fiorentina over 3.5 corners	49.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Fiorentina over 4.5 corners	34.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Fiorentina under 2.5 corners	32.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Fiorentina over 5.5 corners	22.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Fiorentina over 6.5 corners	13.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 3.5 goals	97.8%	96.4%	95.4%	1.01×	1.04
Fiorentina under 2.5 goals	91.1%	92.2%	85.4%	1.08×	1.08
Fiorentina under 1.5 goals	71.8%	74.2%	60.8%	1.22×	1.35
Fiorentina over 0.5 goals	64.9%	63.6%	71.4%	0.89×	1.57
Fiorentina under 0.5 goals	35.1%	36.4%	28.6%	1.27×	2.75
Fiorentina over 1.5 goals	28.2%	25.8%	39.2%	0.66×	3.88
Fiorentina over 2.5 goals	8.9%	7.8%	14.6%	0.53×	12.85
Fiorentina over 3.5 goals	2.2%	3.6%	4.6%	0.79×	27.45

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 1st half	93.1%	95.1%	89.9%	1.06×	1.05
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 1st half	65.3%	68.2%	58.7%	1.16×	1.47
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 1st half	34.7%	31.8%	41.3%	0.77×	3.15
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 1st half	6.9%	4.9%	10.1%	0.49×	20.28

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina scores equally in both	45.0%	47.8%	42.0%	1.14×	2.09
Fiorentina scores more in 2nd half	33.9%	32.9%	36.6%	0.90×	3.04
Fiorentina scores more in 1st half	21.1%	21.3%	21.5%	0.99×	4.70

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (home no bet)	67.5%	64.0%	56.0%	1.14×	1.56
Draw (home no bet)	32.5%	36.0%	44.0%	0.82×	2.78

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina even goals	56.2%	55.3%	56.4%	0.98×	1.81
Fiorentina odd goals	43.8%	44.7%	43.6%	1.03×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.9%	32.9%	34.2%	0.96×	3.04
HT 0-1	22.8%	24.1%	18.4%	1.31×	4.15
HT 1-0	13.6%	10.8%	18.2%	0.59×	9.25
HT 1-1	9.7%	7.1%	10.5%	0.68×	14.06
HT 0-2	8.2%	7.1%	5.4%	1.33×	14.09
Any other HT score	4.5%	2.3%	3.1%	0.75×	42.67
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.3%	2.6%	0.89×	42.75
HT 2-0	2.9%	2.3%	5.6%	0.42×	42.79
HT 2-1	2.1%	2.3%	2.2%	1.04×	42.85
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.3%	0.7%	3.12×	42.94

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT	31.3%	32.8%	19.2%	1.71×	3.05
Draw at HT / Napoli at FT	17.4%	16.8%	13.0%	1.29×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.0%	16.7%	16.4%	1.02×	5.98
Fiorentina at HT / Fiorentina at FT	12.5%	12.7%	21.3%	0.60×	7.89
Draw at HT / Fiorentina at FT	10.0%	6.1%	16.1%	0.38×	16.29
Napoli at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.1%	6.0%	1.02×	16.43
Fiorentina at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.4%	4.5%	0.77×	29.07
Fiorentina at HT / Napoli at FT	2.5%	3.4%	2.0%	1.72×	29.15
Napoli at HT / Fiorentina at FT	1.7%	3.4%	2.5%	1.38×	29.18

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score last	56.9%	56.5%	43.8%	1.29×	1.77
Fiorentina to score last	36.3%	38.4%	48.2%	0.80×	2.61
No goal scored	6.8%	7.5%	8.1%	0.93×	13.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.2%	92.6%	91.9%	1.01×	1.08
Napoli to lead by 1 at any time	65.2%	69.3%	51.1%	1.36×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.0%	44.2%	42.8%	1.03×	2.26
Fiorentina to lead by 1 at any time	41.6%	39.1%	54.9%	0.71×	2.56
Napoli to lead by 2 at any time	33.5%	29.7%	20.2%	1.47×	3.37
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.5%	15.1%	14.6%	1.03×	6.64
Napoli to lead by 3 at any time	13.9%	10.5%	6.4%	1.66×	9.49
Fiorentina to lead by 2 at any time	13.7%	10.5%	23.2%	0.45×	9.49
Fiorentina to lead by 3 at any time	3.6%	1.6%	8.3%	0.19×	61.72

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli most corners	52.2%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Fiorentina most corners	36.3%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	89.0%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.7%	78.7%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.9%	72.4%	71.5%	1.01×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.3%	68.8%	69.5%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.9%	63.4%	67.5%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.4%	60.9%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	48.3%	48.6%	46.7%	1.04×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.6%	47.9%	1.01×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.7%	43.6%	44.7%	0.97×	2.30
1-2 goals	42.9%	43.5%	44.5%	0.98×	2.30
3-4 goals	36.8%	39.2%	36.1%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.3%	30.3%	23.7%	1.28×	3.30
4-5 goals	22.7%	24.5%	21.7%	1.13×	4.08
5-6 goals	11.5%	14.8%	10.7%	1.38×	6.75
7+ goals	2.0%	2.5%	1.0%	2.56×	39.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli never behind	51.5%	62.1%	45.1%	1.38×	1.61
Fiorentina never behind	28.0%	30.1%	48.9%	0.62×	3.32

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	51.8%	0.98×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	48.2%	1.02×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.1%	57.3%	56.9%	1.01×	1.75
Odd goals in 1st half	44.9%	42.7%	43.1%	0.99×	2.34

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.3%	52.0%	51.1%	1.02×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.7%	48.0%	48.9%	0.98×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.4%	92.2%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.2%	92.2%	91.9%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.5%	87.6%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.9%	72.4%	72.4%	1.00×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	71.7%	72.4%	75.5%	0.96×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.3%	52.5%	47.6%	1.10×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	49.7%	47.5%	52.4%	0.91×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	28.3%	27.6%	24.5%	1.12×	3.62
Under 1.5 goals	25.1%	27.6%	27.6%	1.00×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	13.5%	12.4%	11.6%	1.07×	8.08
Under 0.5 goals	6.8%	7.8%	8.1%	0.96×	12.90
Over 5.5 goals	5.6%	7.8%	3.0%	2.59×	12.90

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.0%	92.4%	96.7%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.2%	81.1%	86.7%	0.94×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.7%	67.5%	63.2%	1.07×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.7%	61.9%	68.1%	0.91×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.3%	38.1%	31.9%	1.20×	2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.3%	32.5%	36.8%	0.89×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.8%	18.9%	13.3%	1.42×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.0%	7.6%	3.3%	2.32×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.8%	1.0%	2.75×	35.81

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.2%	88.9%	91.7%	0.97×	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.3%	68.7%	70.6%	0.97×	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.1%	68.7%	65.8%	1.05×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.9%	31.3%	34.2%	0.91×	3.20
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.7%	31.3%	29.4%	1.06×	3.20
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.8%	11.1%	8.3%	1.32×	9.05

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.8%	79.8%	82.1%	0.97×	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.6%	79.8%	78.2%	1.02×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.3%	53.2%	56.7%	0.94×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.7%	46.8%	43.3%	1.08×	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.4%	20.2%	21.8%	0.93×	4.95
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.2%	20.2%	17.9%	1.12×	4.96

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to score in both halves	83.9%	84.2%	76.2%	1.11×	1.19
Napoli not to score in both halves	69.2%	70.2%	78.5%	0.89×	1.43
Napoli to score in both halves	30.8%	29.8%	21.5%	1.38×	3.35
Fiorentina to score in both halves	16.1%	15.8%	23.8%	0.66×	6.34

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.3%	53.8%	49.1%	1.10×	1.86
Only Napoli scores	28.3%	26.0%	20.7%	1.26×	3.84
Only Fiorentina scores	12.6%	11.0%	22.4%	0.49×	9.07
Neither team scores	6.8%	7.1%	8.1%	0.88×	14.03

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.6%	22.6%	24.9%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.2%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.3%	17.4%	19.7%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.8%	12.1%	13.1%	0.93×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	7.9%	7.6%	8.7%	0.87×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.8%	7.6%	8.1%	0.94×	13.13
6 or more goals	5.6%	7.6%	3.0%	2.55×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.4%	36.9%	36.5%	1.01×	2.71
No goals in 1st half	31.9%	36.1%	34.2%	1.05×	2.77
2 goals in 1st half	20.8%	21.5%	21.2%	1.02×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	10.8%	11.0%	8.3%	1.31×	9.12

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.7%	45.3%	43.3%	1.05×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	33.0%	33.3%	35.0%	0.95×	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	21.4%	22.6%	21.8%	1.04×	4.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win both halves	95.4%	97.2%	90.4%	1.08×	1.03
Napoli not to win both halves	84.4%	84.1%	91.3%	0.92×	1.19
Napoli to win both halves	15.6%	15.9%	8.7%	1.82×	6.31
Fiorentina to win both halves	4.6%	2.8%	9.6%	0.29×	35.91

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win either half	63.5%	65.0%	48.4%	1.34×	1.54
Fiorentina to win neither half	61.6%	64.9%	47.2%	1.37×	1.54
Fiorentina to win either half	38.4%	35.1%	52.8%	0.67×	2.85
Napoli to win neither half	36.5%	35.0%	51.6%	0.68×	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win to nil	87.4%	88.1%	77.6%	1.14×	1.14
Napoli not to win to nil	71.7%	75.3%	79.3%	0.95×	1.33
Napoli to win to nil	28.3%	24.7%	20.7%	1.19×	4.05
Fiorentina to win to nil	12.6%	11.9%	22.4%	0.53×	8.43

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.6%	24.1%	26.7%	0.90×	4.15
Napoli by 1	23.9%	24.1%	19.8%	1.22×	4.15
Napoli by 2	15.7%	17.0%	8.6%	1.98×	5.89
Fiorentina by 1	15.3%	17.0%	22.8%	0.75×	5.89
Napoli by 3+	11.6%	11.8%	5.7%	2.05×	8.49
Fiorentina by 2	6.4%	7.2%	9.6%	0.75×	13.88
Fiorentina by 3+	2.6%	2.7%	7.5%	0.36×	36.73

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Fiorentina 1.06 xGNapoli 2.19 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Fiorentina attacking right Napoli attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
14'	Fiorentina	Alieu Njie	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Arthur Atta
16'	Fiorentina	Arthur Atta	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Shot On Post	—
18'	Fiorentina	Nicolo Fagioli	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Franco Mastantuono
21'	Napoli	Mathías Olivera	0.10	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Matteo Politano
21'	Napoli	Mathías Olivera	0.62	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
22'	Napoli	Billy Gilmour	0.05	From Corner	Right Foot	Goal	Matteo Politano
30'	Fiorentina	Arthur Atta	0.03	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Mateo Pellegrino
30'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.05	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	—
34'	Napoli	Mathías Olivera	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
38'	Fiorentina	Nicolo Fagioli	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
38'	Napoli	Rasmus Højlund	0.33	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
43'	Napoli	Noa Lang	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Mathías Olivera
46'	Napoli	Noa Lang	0.02	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
47'	Fiorentina	Radu Dragusin	0.09	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Franco Mastantuono
50'	Fiorentina	Alejandro Jiménez	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Cher Ndour
50'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Alejandro Jiménez
52'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Alieu Njie
55'	Napoli	Rafa Marín	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Mathías Olivera
56'	Fiorentina	Nicolo Fagioli	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Franco Mastantuono
58'	Fiorentina	Alieu Njie	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Franco Mastantuono
63'	Fiorentina	Valde	0.13	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Alieu Njie
70'	Fiorentina	Pote	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Valde
71'	Fiorentina	Pote	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
75'	Napoli	David Neres	0.31	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Giovanni Di Lorenzo
78'	Napoli	Costantino Favasuli	0.52	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	David Neres
79'	Napoli	Lorenzo Lucca	0.05	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Kevin De Bruyne
82'	Napoli	Mathías Olivera	0.01	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Kevin De Bruyne
86'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Pote
93'	Fiorentina	Beto	0.35	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Alejandro Jiménez
93'	Napoli	Costantino Favasuli	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	David Neres

Players

Fiorentina

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Franco Mastantuono FWR	90	0	0	4	4	0.11	0.19	0.23
Nicolo Fagioli MC	90	0	0	3	0	0.10	0.00	0.55
Radu Dragusin DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.09	0.00	0.08
Alejandro Jiménez DR	90	1	0	1	2	0.02	0.37	0.47
Cher Ndour MC	90	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.11
David de Gea GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Luca Ranieri DC	86	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Alieu Njie FWL	81	0	0	2	2	0.06	0.15	0.21
Arthur Atta MC	67	0	0	2	1	0.12	0.03	0.18
Mateo Pellegrino FW	67	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.03	0.13
Viery DL	47	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.03
Valde Sub	43	0	0	1	1	0.13	0.02	0.54
Beto Sub	23	0	0	1	0	0.35	0.00	0.35
Pote Sub	23	0	0	2	1	0.09	0.01	0.45
Wilfried Gnonto Sub	9	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.35
Marin Pongracic Sub	4	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Napoli

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Mathías Olivera DL	90	0	0	4	2	0.82	0.07	1.71
Billy Gilmour DMC	90	1	0	1	0	0.05	0.00	0.94
Rafa Marín DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.94
Stanislav Lobotka DMC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.99
Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.43
Kevin De Bruyne AMC	90	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.07	0.40
Giovanni Di Lorenzo DR	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.31	0.85
Amir Rrahmani DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.94
Matteo Politano AMR	74	0	1	0	2	0.00	0.14	0.16
Rasmus Højlund FW	59	0	0	1	0	0.33	0.00	0.34
Noa Lang AML	59	0	0	2	0	0.07	0.00	0.16
David Neres Sub	31	0	0	1	2	0.31	0.55	0.86
Lorenzo Lucca Sub	31	0	0	1	0	0.05	0.00	0.31
Costantino Favasuli Sub	16	0	0	2	0	0.55	0.00	0.55
Franck Zambo Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Fiorentina v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

Footing

Positive factors

Risk factors

The price

Why Fiorentina

Why the draw is live

Why Napoli can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

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Napoli

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