Fiorentina v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Fiorentina

06:30

Napoli

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 339h before kick-off

Fiorentina win

21.1%

model 20.6%

Draw

21.2%

model 24.2%

Napoli win

57.7%

model 55.1%

212158

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (282 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 12.5%
1-1 11.5%
0-2 10.5%
1-2 9.6%
0-0 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	48.1%	Under 2.5	51.9%
BTTS yes	48.9%	BTTS no	51.1%
Fiorentina 1+	60.2%	Fiorentina 2+	23.5%
Napoli 1+	81.3%	Napoli 2+	49.9%

Expected goals 0.92 – 1.68. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

97/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Napoli (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 34%

56.8% fair odds 1.76

strong signal · 920 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Fiorentina not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 76%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1665 Elo against 1504.
Napoli have created 1.32 xG a match over their last five while Fiorentina have allowed 1.71.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Napoli average 1.40 xG a match.
They have had 21 days' rest to Fiorentina's 15.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.55 expected goal involvements a match against 0.78.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Napoli have an estimated 57.7% win probability, against 21.2% for the draw and 21.1% for Fiorentina. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.92 for Fiorentina and 1.68 for Napoli.

Why Fiorentina

Fiorentina have created 0.98 xG a match over their last five while Napoli have allowed 1.03. At home Fiorentina average 1.44 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.2%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Napoli can win

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1665 Elo against 1504. Napoli have created 1.32 xG a match over their last five while Fiorentina have allowed 1.71. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home Napoli average 1.40 xG a match. They have had 21 days' rest to Fiorentina's 15. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.55 expected goal involvements a match against 0.78.

Key players

Fiorentina's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Moise Kean (0.52), Alieu Njie (0.40), Albert Gudmundsson (0.33). Napoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rasmus Højlund (0.44), Scott McTominay (0.38), Kevin De Bruyne (0.29).

Availability

2 of Fiorentina's top three contributors did not start their last match. 73% of Fiorentina's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Napoli's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Fiorentina: 44% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 16.6 faced, 0.15 xG a match from set pieces. Napoli: 58% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.18 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Napoli are the model's most likely outcome at 57.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 97/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDDLDWDLLL last 10 scored 6 from 9.8 xG conceded 15 from 17.1 xG

Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDLWDLWWWL last 10 scored 15 from 13.2 xG conceded 8 from 10.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	212455	0.92–1.68	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	232552	1.00–1.61	0-1 12%	48%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win	45.9%	47.5%	34.2%	1.39×	2.11
Fiorentina to win	27.5%	27.9%	39.3%	0.71×	3.59
Draw	26.5%	27.9%	26.7%	1.05×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & not both score	26.8%	25.2%	21.0%	1.20×	3.97
Napoli & both teams score	19.1%	17.9%	13.3%	1.35×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	18.1%	17.9%	18.5%	0.97×	5.58
Fiorentina & not both score	15.5%	17.9%	22.7%	0.79×	5.58
Fiorentina & both teams score	12.0%	13.2%	16.7%	0.79×	7.55
Draw & not both score	8.4%	8.4%	8.3%	1.01×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & over 1.5	33.9%	30.9%	24.7%	1.25×	3.24
Napoli & under 3.5	33.8%	30.9%	26.8%	1.15×	3.24
Napoli & over 2.5	25.3%	26.0%	18.1%	1.44×	3.84
Fiorentina & under 3.5	21.5%	21.6%	29.5%	0.73×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	21.0%	21.6%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	21.0%	21.6%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Napoli & under 2.5	20.7%	21.6%	16.2%	1.34×	4.62
Fiorentina & over 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	29.0%	0.62×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.1%	18.0%	18.5%	0.97×	5.56
Fiorentina & over 2.5	14.1%	12.9%	22.3%	0.58×	7.77
Fiorentina & under 2.5	13.4%	12.9%	17.1%	0.75×	7.78
Napoli & under 1.5	12.1%	12.9%	9.6%	1.34×	7.78
Napoli & over 3.5	12.2%	12.9%	7.5%	1.71×	7.78
Fiorentina & under 1.5	8.8%	7.9%	10.5%	0.75×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	8.4%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.69
Fiorentina & over 3.5	6.0%	7.9%	9.9%	0.79×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	5.5%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	5.5%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.69

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (1UP)	60.1%	63.0%	50.9%	1.24×	1.59
Fiorentina (1UP)	43.8%	38.9%	54.6%	0.71×	2.57

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2UP)	45.9%	49.8%	36.6%	1.36×	2.01
Fiorentina (2UP)	27.5%	24.6%	40.9%	0.60×	4.06

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	41.0%	41.1%	36.0%	1.14×	2.43
Napoli to win 2nd half	36.0%	36.0%	29.6%	1.22×	2.77
Fiorentina to win 2nd half	23.1%	23.0%	34.6%	0.67×	4.35

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (+2.5)	97.0%	96.3%	92.3%	1.04×	1.04
Napoli (+1.5)	89.7%	88.5%	82.8%	1.07×	1.13
Napoli (+0.5)	72.5%	73.7%	60.7%	1.21×	1.36
Fiorentina (+0.5)	54.1%	52.4%	65.8%	0.80×	1.91
Napoli (-0.5)	45.9%	47.6%	34.2%	1.39×	2.10
Fiorentina (-0.5)	27.5%	26.3%	39.3%	0.67×	3.80
Fiorentina (-1.5)	10.3%	11.5%	17.2%	0.67×	8.70
Fiorentina (-2.5)	3.0%	3.7%	7.7%	0.49×	26.82

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede	64.8%	67.3%	70.8%	0.95×	1.49
Napoli clean sheet	35.2%	32.7%	29.2%	1.12×	3.05

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 1st half	58.9%	57.8%	58.7%	0.98×	1.73
Napoli to concede in 1st half	41.1%	42.2%	41.3%	1.02×	2.37

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 6.5 corners	79.0%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Napoli over 2.5 corners	76.7%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Napoli under 5.5 corners	68.3%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Napoli over 3.5 corners	61.0%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Napoli under 4.5 corners	54.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Napoli over 4.5 corners	45.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Napoli under 3.5 corners	39.0%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Napoli over 5.5 corners	31.7%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Napoli under 2.5 corners	23.3%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
Napoli over 6.5 corners	21.0%	24.2%	—	—	4.14

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 3.5 goals	94.3%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Napoli under 2.5 goals	82.6%	81.5%	88.3%	0.92×	1.23
Napoli over 0.5 goals	76.1%	76.2%	69.1%	1.10×	1.31
Napoli under 1.5 goals	58.1%	59.6%	65.6%	0.91×	1.68
Napoli over 1.5 goals	41.9%	40.4%	34.4%	1.17×	2.48
Napoli under 0.5 goals	23.9%	23.8%	30.9%	0.77×	4.20
Napoli over 2.5 goals	17.4%	18.5%	11.7%	1.58×	5.40
Napoli over 3.5 goals	5.7%	7.6%	2.9%	2.60×	13.09

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half	84.0%	83.5%	90.1%	0.93×	1.20
Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half	50.9%	55.7%	41.2%	1.35×	1.80
Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half	49.1%	44.3%	58.8%	0.75×	2.26
Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half	16.0%	16.5%	9.9%	1.65×	6.08

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (away no bet)	50.9%	51.2%	59.6%	0.86×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	49.1%	48.8%	40.4%	1.21×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli even goals	52.9%	52.7%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90
Napoli odd goals	47.1%	47.3%	44.4%	1.06×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.7%	87.9%	87.2%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.3%	12.1%	12.8%	0.95×	8.29

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	57.8%	59.8%	59.4%	1.01×	1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals	42.2%	40.2%	40.6%	0.99×	2.49

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.9%	51.1%	52.8%	0.97×	1.96
Napoli to score 2+ in a row	34.7%	28.6%	27.6%	1.04×	3.50
Fiorentina to score 2+ in a row	20.9%	19.3%	31.0%	0.62×	5.19
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.9%	16.4%	17.3%	0.95×	6.10
Napoli to score 3+ in a row	11.9%	12.0%	7.8%	1.54×	8.35
Fiorentina to score 3+ in a row	5.1%	5.5%	9.7%	0.57×	18.13

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli corners (+3.5)	90.2%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Napoli corners (+2.5)	84.2%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Fiorentina corners (+3.5)	78.6%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Napoli corners (+1.5)	75.9%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Fiorentina corners (+2.5)	69.3%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Fiorentina corners (+1.5)	58.3%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Napoli corners (-1.5)	41.7%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Napoli corners (-2.5)	30.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Fiorentina corners (-1.5)	24.1%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Napoli corners (-3.5)	21.4%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Fiorentina corners (-2.5)	15.8%	20.0%	—	—	5.01
Fiorentina corners (-3.5)	9.8%	11.4%	—	—	8.80

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	57.0%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
9-11 corners	26.1%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
12+ corners	16.9%	21.7%	—	—	4.61

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.4%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	83.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 10.5 corners	76.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	67.3%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Under 8.5 corners	57.0%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	54.4%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Under 7.5 corners	45.6%	47.7%	—	—	2.09
Over 8.5 corners	43.0%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	32.7%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 10.5 corners	23.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	16.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.96
Over 12.5 corners	11.6%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.6%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.73
0-1	12.1%	11.5%	9.6%	1.20×	8.73
0-0	8.4%	7.4%	8.3%	0.90×	13.46
0-2	8.6%	7.4%	6.8%	1.10×	13.46
1-0	8.8%	7.4%	10.5%	0.71×	13.46
1-2	9.0%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.46
2-1	6.6%	7.4%	9.2%	0.81×	13.46
2-2	4.7%	1.7%	6.0%	0.28×	58.57
0-3	4.1%	1.7%	3.3%	0.51×	58.57
0-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.67×	58.58
1-3	4.3%	1.7%	1.9%	0.89×	58.57
1-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.58
2-0	4.6%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.57
2-3	2.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.58
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.1%	13.38×	58.59
3-0	1.6%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.58
3-1	2.3%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.58
3-2	1.6%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.58
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.91×	58.59
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.59
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.59
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.49×	58.59
4-2	0.4%	1.7%	0.1%	13.38×	58.59
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.59
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.59
Any other score	2.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.58

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli leading at HT (DNB)	59.7%	57.9%	49.9%	1.16×	1.73
Fiorentina leading at HT (DNB)	40.3%	42.1%	50.1%	0.84×	2.37

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or Napoli (12)	73.5%	72.1%	73.3%	0.98×	1.39
Napoli or draw (X2)	72.5%	72.1%	60.7%	1.19×	1.39
Fiorentina or draw (1X)	54.1%	52.5%	65.8%	0.80×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw at HT	76.1%	80.0%	72.4%	1.10×	1.25
Fiorentina or draw at HT	64.7%	62.3%	72.6%	0.86×	1.61
Fiorentina or Napoli at HT	59.1%	56.9%	54.8%	1.04×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw (1UP)	72.5%	80.0%	66.2%	1.21×	1.25
Fiorentina or draw (1UP)	54.1%	58.9%	71.0%	0.83×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw in 2nd half	76.9%	77.0%	65.4%	1.18×	1.30
Fiorentina or draw in 2nd half	64.0%	64.0%	70.4%	0.91×	1.56
Fiorentina or Napoli in 2nd half	59.0%	58.9%	64.0%	0.92×	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.1%	69.6%	64.4%	1.08×	1.44
Neither half drawn	34.9%	30.4%	35.6%	0.85×	3.29

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (DNB)	62.6%	62.9%	46.5%	1.35×	1.59
Fiorentina (DNB)	37.4%	37.1%	53.5%	0.69×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score first	53.0%	54.2%	44.0%	1.23×	1.85
Fiorentina to score first	38.6%	32.6%	47.8%	0.68×	3.07
No goal scored	8.4%	7.4%	8.3%	0.90×	13.46

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.7%	51.4%	51.8%	0.99×	1.94
Both teams to score	49.3%	48.6%	48.2%	1.01×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.5%	41.5%	41.3%	1.01×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	36.7%	38.5%	36.6%	1.05×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.6%	12.3%	11.7%	1.05×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.2%	8.4%	10.6%	0.79×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.3%	85.7%	87.1%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.7%	14.3%	12.9%	1.11×	6.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	79.4%	75.3%	75.3%	1.00×	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	20.6%	24.7%	24.7%	1.00×	4.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	62.8%	66.7%	63.5%	1.05×	1.50
Both score 1st half only	16.6%	15.6%	11.9%	1.32×	6.41
Both score 2nd half only	16.3%	15.6%	19.9%	0.78×	6.41
Both score in both halves	4.3%	5.0%	5.0%	1.00×	20.04

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.1%	81.8%	83.3%	0.98×	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	20.9%	18.2%	16.7%	1.09×	5.48

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.4%	53.2%	51.9%	1.03×	1.88
A half without a goal	49.6%	46.8%	48.1%	0.97×	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	47.4%	48.0%	0.99×	2.11
0-1 goals	29.3%	26.4%	28.1%	0.94×	3.78
4-6 goals	22.3%	22.8%	23.3%	0.98×	4.38
7+ goals	1.3%	1.8%	0.9%	2.03×	55.30

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score exactly 1	34.2%	33.9%	34.8%	0.97×	2.95
Napoli to score exactly 2	24.5%	22.4%	22.8%	0.98×	4.47
Napoli to score exactly 0	23.9%	22.4%	30.9%	0.73×	4.47
Napoli to score 3+	17.4%	19.5%	11.7%	1.67×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.6%	32.1%	1.11×	2.81
Fiorentina to score exactly 0	35.2%	35.6%	29.2%	1.22×	2.81
Fiorentina to score exactly 2	19.2%	18.9%	24.6%	0.77×	5.30
Fiorentina to score 3+	8.8%	10.3%	14.3%	0.72×	9.68

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.9%	43.1%	45.2%	0.96×	2.32
Napoli leading at HT	35.3%	37.7%	27.4%	1.38×	2.65
Fiorentina leading at HT	23.9%	20.0%	27.6%	0.73×	4.99

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli -1: 1	54.1%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Napoli -1: X	23.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Napoli -1: 2	22.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:1)	72.5%	71.0%	60.7%	1.17×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	17.2%	17.8%	22.2%	0.80×	5.62
Fiorentina (0:1)	10.3%	13.8%	17.2%	0.80×	7.24

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:2)	89.7%	87.0%	82.8%	1.05×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	7.3%	7.7%	9.7%	0.79×	12.98
Fiorentina (0:2)	3.0%	3.8%	7.7%	0.49×	26.52

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:3)	97.0%	96.6%	92.3%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.3%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	42.04
Fiorentina (0:3)	0.7%	2.4%	3.2%	0.74×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:4)	99.3%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	2.3%	0.52×	83.41
Fiorentina (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.0%	1.17×	83.46

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (1:0)	54.1%	54.1%	65.8%	0.82×	1.85
Draw (1:0)	23.6%	21.7%	20.0%	1.09×	4.60
Napoli (1:0)	22.4%	21.7%	14.3%	1.52×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2:0)	77.6%	80.4%	85.7%	0.94×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	13.8%	10.4%	8.5%	1.22×	9.60
Napoli (2:0)	8.6%	6.5%	5.9%	1.10×	15.47

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	36.6%	36.6%	26.9%	1.36×	2.73
2nd half highest scoring	36.2%	36.2%	46.3%	0.78×	2.76
Halves equal	27.2%	26.5%	26.9%	0.99×	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede	76.1%	75.8%	69.1%	1.10×	1.32
Fiorentina clean sheet	23.9%	24.2%	30.9%	0.78×	4.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 1st half	50.9%	55.7%	41.2%	1.35×	1.80
Fiorentina clean sheet in 1st half	49.1%	44.3%	58.8%	0.75×	2.26

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 6.5 corners	88.5%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Fiorentina under 5.5 corners	80.4%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Fiorentina under 4.5 corners	68.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Fiorentina over 2.5 corners	65.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Fiorentina under 3.5 corners	52.6%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Fiorentina over 3.5 corners	47.4%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Fiorentina under 2.5 corners	34.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Fiorentina over 4.5 corners	31.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Fiorentina over 5.5 corners	19.6%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
Fiorentina over 6.5 corners	11.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 3.5 goals	97.8%	96.4%	95.4%	1.01×	1.04
Fiorentina under 2.5 goals	91.2%	92.2%	85.7%	1.08×	1.08
Fiorentina under 1.5 goals	72.0%	74.2%	61.2%	1.21×	1.35
Fiorentina over 0.5 goals	64.8%	63.4%	70.8%	0.90×	1.58
Fiorentina under 0.5 goals	35.2%	36.6%	29.2%	1.25×	2.73
Fiorentina over 1.5 goals	28.0%	25.8%	38.8%	0.66×	3.88
Fiorentina over 2.5 goals	8.8%	7.8%	14.3%	0.54×	12.87
Fiorentina over 3.5 goals	2.2%	3.6%	4.6%	0.79×	27.46

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 1st half	90.1%	95.3%	90.2%	1.06×	1.05
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 1st half	58.9%	57.4%	58.7%	0.98×	1.74
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 1st half	41.1%	42.6%	41.3%	1.03×	2.35
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 1st half	9.9%	4.7%	9.8%	0.48×	21.33

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (home no bet)	63.4%	60.2%	56.2%	1.07×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	36.6%	39.8%	43.8%	0.91×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina even goals	56.2%	55.4%	56.9%	0.97×	1.80
Fiorentina odd goals	43.8%	44.6%	43.1%	1.03×	2.25

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.9%	28.7%	34.2%	0.84×	3.48
HT 0-1	20.6%	24.2%	18.4%	1.32×	4.13
HT 1-0	15.3%	18.8%	18.4%	1.03×	5.31
HT 1-1	10.9%	11.0%	10.6%	1.04×	9.06
HT 0-2	7.3%	7.1%	5.5%	1.29×	14.10
Any other HT score	5.2%	7.1%	3.1%	2.31×	14.14
HT 1-2	3.9%	2.2%	2.6%	0.88×	44.63
HT 2-0	4.1%	2.2%	5.5%	0.41×	44.62
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.2%	2.3%	0.97×	44.71
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.2%	0.6%	3.50×	44.86

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT	29.1%	26.7%	19.4%	1.38×	3.74
Fiorentina at HT / Fiorentina at FT	16.7%	16.8%	21.3%	0.79×	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.7%	16.8%	16.7%	1.01×	5.95
Draw at HT / Napoli at FT	14.7%	12.7%	13.0%	0.98×	7.88
Draw at HT / Fiorentina at FT	9.4%	6.1%	15.7%	0.39×	16.51
Fiorentina at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	4.5%	1.35×	16.64
Napoli at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.4%	5.7%	0.60×	29.09
Fiorentina at HT / Napoli at FT	2.1%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.20
Napoli at HT / Fiorentina at FT	1.3%	3.4%	2.6%	1.34×	29.23

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score last	53.0%	51.9%	43.9%	1.18×	1.93
Fiorentina to score last	38.6%	38.4%	48.0%	0.80×	2.61
No goal scored	8.4%	7.4%	8.3%	0.90×	13.46

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.6%	92.7%	91.7%	1.01×	1.08
Napoli to lead by 1 at any time	60.1%	61.3%	50.9%	1.21×	1.63
Fiorentina to lead by 1 at any time	43.8%	39.1%	54.6%	0.72×	2.56
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.7%	39.0%	42.7%	0.91×	2.56
Napoli to lead by 2 at any time	28.0%	25.2%	20.2%	1.25×	3.97
Fiorentina to lead by 2 at any time	14.9%	10.5%	23.0%	0.46×	9.52
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.3%	10.5%	14.7%	0.72×	9.53
Napoli to lead by 3 at any time	10.3%	10.4%	6.4%	1.63×	9.61
Fiorentina to lead by 3 at any time	4.0%	1.6%	8.4%	0.19×	61.83

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli most corners	53.7%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Fiorentina most corners	34.5%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Corners level	11.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.39

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.5%	87.4%	89.0%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.0%	83.5%	80.7%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	69.4%	69.0%	71.2%	0.97×	1.45
1-3 goals	67.9%	69.0%	67.7%	1.02×	1.45
2-5 goals	66.7%	69.0%	69.3%	1.00×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.2%	63.5%	61.0%	1.04×	1.58
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.7%	48.0%	1.01×	2.06
1-2 goals	46.6%	48.7%	44.8%	1.09×	2.06
3-6 goals	43.6%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.29
3-5 goals	40.9%	43.6%	44.4%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	34.4%	35.4%	36.1%	0.98×	2.83
4-6 goals	22.3%	24.4%	23.3%	1.05×	4.09
4-5 goals	19.7%	18.6%	21.4%	0.87×	5.37
5-6 goals	9.2%	8.8%	10.3%	0.85×	11.43
7+ goals	1.3%	2.5%	0.9%	2.83×	39.52

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli never behind	47.8%	57.1%	45.4%	1.26×	1.75
Fiorentina never behind	31.5%	35.4%	49.1%	0.72×	2.83

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.6%	50.8%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.4%	49.2%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.2%	51.6%	56.8%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.8%	48.4%	43.2%	1.12×	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.3%	52.1%	51.7%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.7%	47.9%	48.3%	0.99×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.0%	95.5%	97.2%	0.98×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.6%	92.3%	91.7%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.5%	87.7%	88.9%	0.99×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	76.3%	77.4%	75.9%	1.02×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	70.7%	72.5%	71.9%	1.01×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	55.1%	58.8%	52.9%	1.11×	1.70
Over 2.5 goals	44.9%	41.2%	47.1%	0.88×	2.43
Under 1.5 goals	29.3%	27.5%	28.1%	0.98×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	23.7%	22.6%	24.1%	0.94×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	10.5%	12.3%	11.1%	1.11×	8.12
Under 0.5 goals	8.4%	7.7%	8.3%	0.93×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	4.0%	4.5%	2.8%	1.61×	22.19

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.6%	97.3%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.7%	97.2%	96.9%	1.00×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	87.9%	86.7%	87.2%	0.99×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	69.9%	67.4%	68.7%	0.98×	1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	60.6%	62.1%	62.6%	0.99×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	39.4%	37.9%	37.4%	1.01×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	30.1%	32.6%	31.3%	1.04×	3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	12.1%	13.3%	12.8%	1.04×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.3%	2.8%	3.1%	0.90×	36.32
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.4%	2.7%	0.9%	3.02×	36.41

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.0%	89.3%	91.8%	0.97×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.1%	71.0%	65.8%	1.08×	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.8%	63.8%	70.7%	0.90×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.2%	36.2%	29.3%	1.23×	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.9%	29.0%	34.2%	0.85×	3.45
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.0%	10.7%	8.2%	1.31×	9.33

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.2%	85.4%	82.8%	1.03×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.8%	77.8%	77.8%	1.00×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.1%	67.0%	57.1%	1.17×	1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.9%	33.0%	42.9%	0.77×	3.03
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.2%	22.2%	22.2%	1.00×	4.51
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.8%	14.6%	17.2%	0.85×	6.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to score in both halves	83.5%	84.3%	76.1%	1.11×	1.19
Napoli not to score in both halves	73.9%	74.3%	78.7%	0.94×	1.35
Napoli to score in both halves	26.1%	25.7%	21.3%	1.20×	3.90
Fiorentina to score in both halves	16.5%	15.7%	23.9%	0.66×	6.38

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.3%	50.4%	48.2%	1.05×	1.99
Only Napoli scores	26.8%	26.2%	21.0%	1.24×	3.82
Only Fiorentina scores	15.5%	16.1%	22.7%	0.71×	6.21
Neither team scores	8.4%	7.2%	8.3%	0.87×	13.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.8%	25.0%	25.0%	1.00×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.3%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	20.8%	22.6%	19.9%	1.14×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	13.1%	12.1%	13.1%	0.92×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	8.4%	7.6%	8.3%	0.92×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	6.5%	7.6%	8.4%	0.90×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.0%	4.4%	2.8%	1.58×	22.61

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	35.9%	39.7%	35.1%	1.13×	2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half	34.9%	33.9%	42.9%	0.79×	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	29.2%	29.7%	22.2%	1.34×	3.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win both halves	94.5%	94.0%	90.2%	1.04×	1.06
Napoli not to win both halves	87.3%	88.1%	91.3%	0.96×	1.14
Napoli to win both halves	12.7%	11.9%	8.7%	1.38×	8.37
Fiorentina to win both halves	5.5%	6.0%	9.8%	0.61×	16.72

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to win neither half	58.6%	59.5%	47.7%	1.25×	1.68
Napoli to win either half	58.6%	59.5%	48.3%	1.23×	1.68
Napoli to win neither half	41.4%	40.5%	51.7%	0.78×	2.47
Fiorentina to win either half	41.4%	40.5%	52.3%	0.78×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win to nil	84.5%	83.0%	77.3%	1.07×	1.21
Napoli not to win to nil	73.2%	75.3%	79.0%	0.95×	1.33
Napoli to win to nil	26.8%	24.7%	21.0%	1.18×	4.04
Fiorentina to win to nil	15.5%	17.0%	22.7%	0.75×	5.88

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.5%	27.8%	26.7%	1.04×	3.59
Napoli by 1	23.6%	24.1%	20.0%	1.21×	4.14
Fiorentina by 1	17.2%	16.9%	22.2%	0.76×	5.90
Napoli by 2	13.8%	11.8%	8.5%	1.38×	8.46
Napoli by 3+	8.6%	7.2%	5.9%	1.24×	13.80
Fiorentina by 2	7.3%	7.2%	9.7%	0.75×	13.80
Fiorentina by 3+	3.0%	2.7%	7.7%	0.35×	36.97