Fiorentina v Parma Calcio 1913 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 8
On target
1 – 0
Shots in box
8 – 2
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-0.76 – -0.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
49.6%
Draw
27.0%
Parma Calcio 1913 win
23.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLLLWLLD last 10
scored 7
from 7.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.49–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.03–1.05 | 2-1 10% | 59% | 57% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 0.76 xGParma Calcio 1913 0.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Fiorentina |
Robin Gosens | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 8' |
Fiorentina |
Luca Ranieri | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Roberto Piccoli |
| 12' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Oliver Sørensen |
| 25' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 33' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 37' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 38' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Circati |
| 43' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mandela Keita | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 45' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mateo Pellegrino |
| 47' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 47' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 57' |
Fiorentina |
Luca Ranieri | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 81' |
Fiorentina |
Robin Gosens | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacopo Fazzini |
| 84' |
Fiorentina |
Jacopo Fazzini | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 90' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Alessandro Circati | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mariano Troilo |
| 91' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Benjamín Cremaschi | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Christian Ordóñez | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Benjamín Cremaschi MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mandela Keita DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Emanuele Valeri ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mariano Troilo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| Enrico Del Prato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Edoardo Corvi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Oliver Sørensen MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Gabriel Strefezza FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Christian Ordóñez Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nesta Elphege Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gaetano Oristanio Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nahuel Estévez Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| Nicolo Fagioli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Robin Gosens DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.38 |
| Albert Gudmundsson ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| Cher Ndour MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jack Harrison MR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.31 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacopo Fazzini Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Pietro Comuzzo Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Brescianini Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |