Fiorentina v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 26 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 11
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-2.19 – -0.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
41.9%
Draw
25.9%
Sassuolo win
32.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.32–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.76–1.09 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 2.19 xGSassuolo 0.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
Sassuolo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 16' |
Fiorentina |
Luca Ranieri | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 18' |
Fiorentina |
Jack Harrison | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 19' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dodô |
| 24' |
 Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 25' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 27' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ulisses García |
| 31' |
Fiorentina |
Manor Solomon | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 34' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 34' |
Fiorentina |
Jack Harrison | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 36' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 40' |
Fiorentina |
Jack Harrison | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 45' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 49' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 53' |
Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 55' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 56' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 58' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Armand Lauriente |
| 60' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 61' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 63' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 71' |
Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Fiorentina |
Giovanni Fabbian | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 77' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Fiorentina |
Giovanni Fabbian | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 81' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovanni Fabbian |
| 83' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Fiorentina |
Pietro Comuzzo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manor Solomon |
| 93' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Gudmundsson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.90 | 0.47 | 1.48 |
| Manor Solomon FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.36 | 0.62 | 1.07 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.44 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 1.34 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Cher Ndour MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Daniele Rugani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Luís Balbo DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Jack Harrison FWR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.27 | 1.14 |
| Jacopo Fazzini Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Pietro Comuzzo Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.40 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Stefano Turati GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ulisses García DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.38 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.38 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Cristian Volpato FWR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 0.50 |
| Luca Lipani Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| M'Bala Nzola Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Moro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aster Vranckx Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |