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Fiorentina v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 19 January 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–1
1.82 – 0.54 xG
Shots
20 – 6
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 4
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.58 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.86 – +0.46
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.62.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Moise Kean 37' — goalGvidas Gineitis 69' — goal
Fiorentina 1.86 xGTorino 0.54 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Michael Folorunsho 5' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Andrea Colpani 9' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Albert Gudmundsson 14' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Adrien Tameze 17' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Albert Gudmundsson 20' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Andrea Colpani 21' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Michael Folorunsho 21' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Pietro Comuzzo 27' — Missed Shot (0.34 xG, Set Piece)Moise Kean 34' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Set Piece)Andrea Colpani 37' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 37' — Goal (0.48 xG, Open Play)Yann Karamoh 42' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 43' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 46' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Rolando Mandragora 46' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Moise Kean 52' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Yacine Adli 67' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Alieu Njie 68' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Gvidas Gineitis 69' — Goal (0.30 xG, Open Play)Luca Ranieri 81' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Riccardo Sottil 82' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Yacine Adli 82' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 83' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lucas Beltrán 86' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Gvidas Gineitis 90' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Adam Masina 91' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)
Fiorentina attacking right Torino attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Fiorentina Michael Folorunsho 0.06 Open Play Blocked Shot Dodô
9' Fiorentina Andrea Colpani 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Moise Kean
14' Fiorentina Albert Gudmundsson 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Andrea Colpani
17' Torino Adrien Tameze 0.04 Open Play Saved Shot Ali Dembélé
20' Fiorentina Albert Gudmundsson 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
21' Fiorentina Andrea Colpani 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
21' Fiorentina Michael Folorunsho 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
27' Fiorentina Pietro Comuzzo 0.34 Set Piece Missed Shot Rolando Mandragora
34' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.09 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Andrea Colpani
37' Fiorentina Andrea Colpani 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Albert Gudmundsson
37' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.48 Open Play Goal
42' Torino Yann Karamoh 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Che Adams
43' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Robin Gosens
46' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.03 Open Play Saved Shot Michael Folorunsho
46' Fiorentina Rolando Mandragora 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Yacine Adli
52' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Robin Gosens
67' Fiorentina Yacine Adli 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Albert Gudmundsson
68' Torino Alieu Njie 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
69' Torino Gvidas Gineitis 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Goal
81' Fiorentina Luca Ranieri 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Dodô
82' Fiorentina Riccardo Sottil 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Yacine Adli
82' Fiorentina Yacine Adli 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Andrea Colpani
83' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Dodô
86' Fiorentina Lucas Beltrán 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Andrea Colpani
90' Torino Gvidas Gineitis 0.05 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
91' Torino Adam Masina 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot Alieu Njie

Players

Torino

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Guillermo Maripán DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Valentino Lazaro MR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Saúl Coco DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Samuele Ricci MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Che Adams FW 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.11
Yann Karamoh ML 87 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.11
Borna Sosa DL 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Adrien Tameze MC 59 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Nikola Vlasic FW 59 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Ali Dembélé DR 32 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
Gvidas Gineitis Sub 31 1 0 2 0 0.35 0.00 0.30
Alieu Njie Sub 31 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.02 0.06
Adam Masina Sub 26 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.00
Marcus Pedersen Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fiorentina

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Moise Kean FW 90 1 0 6 1 0.83 0.06 0.91
Pietro Comuzzo DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.34 0.00 0.38
Andrea Colpani AMR 90 0 0 3 4 0.18 0.30 0.43
Yacine Adli DMC 90 0 0 2 2 0.11 0.05 0.53
Michael Folorunsho AML 90 0 0 2 1 0.08 0.03 0.25
Luca Ranieri DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.28
David de Gea GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Dodô DR 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.18 0.28
Robin Gosens DL 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.16 0.39
Albert Gudmundsson AMC 78 0 0 2 2 0.13 0.14 0.33
Rolando Mandragora DMC 78 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.34 0.30
Lucas Beltrán Sub 12 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.14
Riccardo Sottil Sub 12 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Christian Kouamé Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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